The sun is constant yet ocean temperatures increase and decrease. Why?

[westwall]

Here’s why CO₂ is so important, despite being "weaker" than other greenhouse gases:

1. CO₂ is Long-Lived in the Atmosphere​

• CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years, much longer than other greenhouse gases like water vapor, which can cycle out of the atmosphere in days or weeks. This makes CO₂ a long-term driverof the Earth’s climate system.
• Water vapor, for instance, is more abundant and has a stronger immediate warming effect, but its concentration in the atmosphere is largely a feedback, not a driver. The level of water vapor is determined by temperature (warmer air holds more moisture), which in turn is influenced by CO₂ and other long-lived greenhouse gases.

2. CO₂ Acts as the "Control Knob"​

• Water vapor amplifies warming through a feedback loop, but CO₂ is often described as the "control knob" for Earth’s temperature. This is because CO₂ sets the baseline for the greenhouse effect, influencing the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold.
• When CO₂ levels rise, temperatures increase, leading to more evaporation and higher water vaporconcentrations, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. Thus, while water vapor has a more immediate warming potential, it cannot drive temperature increases on its own without a forcing agent like CO₂.

3. Radiative Forcing from CO₂ is Cumulative​

• Radiative forcing refers to the change in energy balance caused by changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. CO₂ absorbs infrared radiation in specific wavelengths (between 4.2–4.4 µm and 14.5–15 µm), trapping heat that would otherwise escape into space.
• As CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere, each additional unit of CO₂ continues to add to the overall warming, even though the effect per molecule decreases logarithmically (meaning that the first additions of CO₂ have a stronger impact than later ones). This cumulative effect makes CO₂ a dominant factor in the long-term energy balance.

4. CO₂ Affects the Entire Atmosphere​

• Unlike water vapor, which is concentrated near the surface and in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), CO₂ is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere, including the stratosphere and even into higher layers.
• This means that CO₂’s ability to absorb and emit infrared radiation operates over a much larger portion of the atmosphere compared to water vapor, making it more effective at trapping heat at higher altitudes where water vapor is scarce.

5. CO₂ Does Not Saturate at its Key Absorption Bands​

• There is a misconception that CO₂’s greenhouse effect becomes "saturated" (i.e., that adding more CO₂ does not cause additional warming) because it already absorbs infrared radiation at certain wavelengths. However, while it's true that CO₂ strongly absorbs certain bands of infrared radiation, the edges of these absorption bands remain unsaturated.
• Adding more CO₂ increases the broadening of these absorption bands, trapping more heat. This means that even at high concentrations, additional CO₂ will continue to increase the greenhouse effect by absorbing more radiation at these marginal wavelengths.

6. CO₂'s Role in the Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks​

• CO₂ plays a critical role in the carbon cycle, where it interacts with various Earth systems, including oceans, forests, and soils. The oceans absorb large amounts of CO₂, but this process has limits, especially as water warms (warm water holds less CO₂ than cold water).
• As CO₂ levels rise, the ocean’s ability to absorb CO₂ diminishes, leaving more CO₂ in the atmosphere, which further amplifies warming. This interaction between CO₂ and other Earth systems makes it a key player in positive climate feedbacks, where small initial changes in CO₂ lead to more significant overall warming.

7. CO₂ Drives Temperature During Glacial-Interglacial Cycles​

• Historical climate records from ice cores show that while temperature changes initially lead CO₂ changesduring glacial-interglacial cycles (due to shifts in Earth’s orbit or solar radiation), the rising CO₂ concentrations act as a feedback that amplifies the warming. Once CO₂ starts to rise (due to processes like ocean outgassing), it contributes significantly to further increases in temperature.
• This pattern illustrates how CO₂ can amplify natural warming events and underscores its powerful role in sustaining and reinforcing climate changes.

8. Modern CO₂ Rise is the Primary Driver of Current Warming​

• In the modern context, CO₂ emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels, deforestation, etc.) are the primary driver of observed global warming. Atmospheric CO₂ levels have risen sharply since the Industrial Revolution, from about 280 ppm to over 420 ppm today.
• Multiple studies, including those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have concluded that the rise in CO₂ concentrations is responsible for the majority of the observed warming over the past century. No other factor explains the magnitude and rate of the current temperature increase.

Conclusion:​

CO₂ is considered a main driver of the Earth's overall energy balance, not because it's the strongest greenhouse gason a per-molecule basis, but because of its persistence, cumulative effect, distribution throughout the atmosphere, and its role in amplifying other greenhouse gases like water vapor. It serves as the "control knob" that regulates the Earth's temperature, making it central to the dynamics of global warming and climate change.

4o

All of those claims are unsubstantiated by actual empirical data. In fact the first IPCC report listed the residence time for CO@ at 6 years. Then they raised it to 15 years, then they raised it to 200. None of which are legit. The original claimed RT is the correct one. But, yet again, who cares. It is such a miniscule amount that it has zero effect.

 

[Slade3200]

Actually they fit the model to match the data. Their models intentionally tune out (what they call drift). Their assumption is that there are no natural climate variations. I have a problem with that considering that climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty are hallmarks of our bipolar glaciated planet.

This study may be of interest to you...

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) – Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010​

• This study used statistical methods to separate the influences of natural factors (e.g., solar variability, volcanic aerosols) from anthropogenic factors (like CO₂ emissions) on global temperatures. They found that the recent warming is overwhelmingly driven by human activity, specifically from increasing CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
• The study helps clarify that natural climate variability cannot account for the observed global temperature trends in recent decades, highlighting CO₂ as the main driver.

Reference: Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010." Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 044022.

 

[Slade3200]

All of those claims are unsubstantiated by actual empirical data. In fact the first IPCC report listed the residence time for CO@ at 6 years. Then they raised it to 15 years, then they raised it to 200. None of which are legit. The original claimed RT is the correct one. But, yet again, who cares. It is such a miniscule amount that it has zero effect.

• Early IPCC Reports: The first IPCC report (1990) did state that the residence time of CO₂ is about 5 to 200 years, depending on the processes involved. However, this range does not refer to the time it takes for a single CO₂ molecule to leave the atmosphere, but to the time scales at which CO₂'s effects linger in the atmosphere.
• The residence time of individual CO₂ molecules is shorter (about 5 to 10 years), but the perturbation lifetime of CO₂ (the time it takes for the added CO₂ to be fully removed from the carbon cycle) is much longer, up to hundreds to thousands of years. This is because CO₂ is exchanged between the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere, and the long-term removal (e.g., via weathering processes) takes much longer.

IPCC Reports have consistently acknowledged the difference between the residence time of individual CO₂ molecules and the effective lifetime of excess CO₂ in the atmosphere.

• The confusion may arise because residence time (for individual CO₂ molecules) is short, but the climate impact of excess atmospheric CO₂ (due to fossil fuel burning) is long-lasting. This long-term impact is why CO₂ is critical for understanding global warming.

Sources:

• IPCC First Assessment Report (1990): Chapter 1 discusses residence times and lifetimes of gases .
• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): Recognizes that the perturbation lifetime of CO₂ is hundreds to thousands of years.

 

[ding]

Here’s why CO₂ is so important, despite being "weaker" than other greenhouse gases:

1. CO₂ is Long-Lived in the Atmosphere​

• CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years, much longer than other greenhouse gases like water vapor, which can cycle out of the atmosphere in days or weeks. This makes CO₂ a long-term driverof the Earth’s climate system.
• Water vapor, for instance, is more abundant and has a stronger immediate warming effect, but its concentration in the atmosphere is largely a feedback, not a driver. The level of water vapor is determined by temperature (warmer air holds more moisture), which in turn is influenced by CO₂ and other long-lived greenhouse gases.

2. CO₂ Acts as the "Control Knob"​

• Water vapor amplifies warming through a feedback loop, but CO₂ is often described as the "control knob" for Earth’s temperature. This is because CO₂ sets the baseline for the greenhouse effect, influencing the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold.
• When CO₂ levels rise, temperatures increase, leading to more evaporation and higher water vaporconcentrations, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. Thus, while water vapor has a more immediate warming potential, it cannot drive temperature increases on its own without a forcing agent like CO₂.

3. Radiative Forcing from CO₂ is Cumulative​

• Radiative forcing refers to the change in energy balance caused by changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. CO₂ absorbs infrared radiation in specific wavelengths (between 4.2–4.4 µm and 14.5–15 µm), trapping heat that would otherwise escape into space.
• As CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere, each additional unit of CO₂ continues to add to the overall warming, even though the effect per molecule decreases logarithmically (meaning that the first additions of CO₂ have a stronger impact than later ones). This cumulative effect makes CO₂ a dominant factor in the long-term energy balance.

4. CO₂ Affects the Entire Atmosphere​

• Unlike water vapor, which is concentrated near the surface and in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), CO₂ is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere, including the stratosphere and even into higher layers.
• This means that CO₂’s ability to absorb and emit infrared radiation operates over a much larger portion of the atmosphere compared to water vapor, making it more effective at trapping heat at higher altitudes where water vapor is scarce.

5. CO₂ Does Not Saturate at its Key Absorption Bands​

• There is a misconception that CO₂’s greenhouse effect becomes "saturated" (i.e., that adding more CO₂ does not cause additional warming) because it already absorbs infrared radiation at certain wavelengths. However, while it's true that CO₂ strongly absorbs certain bands of infrared radiation, the edges of these absorption bands remain unsaturated.
• Adding more CO₂ increases the broadening of these absorption bands, trapping more heat. This means that even at high concentrations, additional CO₂ will continue to increase the greenhouse effect by absorbing more radiation at these marginal wavelengths.

6. CO₂'s Role in the Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks​

• CO₂ plays a critical role in the carbon cycle, where it interacts with various Earth systems, including oceans, forests, and soils. The oceans absorb large amounts of CO₂, but this process has limits, especially as water warms (warm water holds less CO₂ than cold water).
• As CO₂ levels rise, the ocean’s ability to absorb CO₂ diminishes, leaving more CO₂ in the atmosphere, which further amplifies warming. This interaction between CO₂ and other Earth systems makes it a key player in positive climate feedbacks, where small initial changes in CO₂ lead to more significant overall warming.

7. CO₂ Drives Temperature During Glacial-Interglacial Cycles​

• Historical climate records from ice cores show that while temperature changes initially lead CO₂ changesduring glacial-interglacial cycles (due to shifts in Earth’s orbit or solar radiation), the rising CO₂ concentrations act as a feedback that amplifies the warming. Once CO₂ starts to rise (due to processes like ocean outgassing), it contributes significantly to further increases in temperature.
• This pattern illustrates how CO₂ can amplify natural warming events and underscores its powerful role in sustaining and reinforcing climate changes.

8. Modern CO₂ Rise is the Primary Driver of Current Warming​

• In the modern context, CO₂ emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels, deforestation, etc.) are the primary driver of observed global warming. Atmospheric CO₂ levels have risen sharply since the Industrial Revolution, from about 280 ppm to over 420 ppm today.
• Multiple studies, including those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have concluded that the rise in CO₂ concentrations is responsible for the majority of the observed warming over the past century. No other factor explains the magnitude and rate of the current temperature increase.

Conclusion:​

CO₂ is considered a main driver of the Earth's overall energy balance, not because it's the strongest greenhouse gason a per-molecule basis, but because of its persistence, cumulative effect, distribution throughout the atmosphere, and its role in amplifying other greenhouse gases like water vapor. It serves as the "control knob" that regulates the Earth's temperature, making it central to the dynamics of global warming and climate change.

4o

Again... a cooling planet with elevated levels of CO2 disproves all of that. And that is empirical evidence. Not a computer model output which is what they are basing all of their statements upon. Garbage in equals garbage out.

 

[ding]

This study may be of interest to you...

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) – Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010​

• This study used statistical methods to separate the influences of natural factors (e.g., solar variability, volcanic aerosols) from anthropogenic factors (like CO₂ emissions) on global temperatures. They found that the recent warming is overwhelmingly driven by human activity, specifically from increasing CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
• The study helps clarify that natural climate variability cannot account for the observed global temperature trends in recent decades, highlighting CO₂ as the main driver.

Reference: Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010." Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 044022.

By attributing all warming to an incremental 120 ppm of CO2 which is 3 times greater than it's theoretical GHG effect. A much better explanation for the warming is that that is what always happens after a glacial period has ended and the northern hemisphere is deglaciating. Why? Because heat is being circulated from the Atlantic to the Arctic and is causing the Arctic to be 5C warmer than if that heat were not being circulated to the Arctic. Today's temperature is 2C cooler than the previous interglacial with 120 ppm more CO2 than the previous glacial. How do you explain that if CO2 is such a dominate force in driving climate?

 

[abu afak]

Water vapor controls the atmospheric temps. The GHG's you list are in such minute amounts that their effects are completely nullified by the water vapor.

They have no impact on global temps. And water vapor merely acts like a blanket. It doesn't add energy into the system. It merely slows down the rate at which that energy leaves the Earth at night.

Westwall: Persistently Wrong.
Water Vapor, Refute 2
NASA. Feb 2022

"...Some people Mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor Doesn’t Cause global warming. Instead, it’s a Consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases.

Earth's water cycle.
NASA

It works like this: As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space. This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide alone.""

Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth's Greenhouse Effect - NASA Science

`

 

[westwall]

This study may be of interest to you...

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) – Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010​

• This study used statistical methods to separate the influences of natural factors (e.g., solar variability, volcanic aerosols) from anthropogenic factors (like CO₂ emissions) on global temperatures. They found that the recent warming is overwhelmingly driven by human activity, specifically from increasing CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
• The study helps clarify that natural climate variability cannot account for the observed global temperature trends in recent decades, highlighting CO₂ as the main driver.

Reference: Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010." Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 044022.

So, statistical methods. Not empirical data.

Thank you.

 

[westwall]

Westwall: Persistently Wrong.
Water Vapor, Part 2
NASA

"...Some people Mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a Consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases.

Earth's water cycle.
NASA

It works like this: As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space. This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide alone.""

Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth's Greenhouse Effect - NASA Science

`

Yes, you persist in posting things that were proven false long ago.

 

[Slade3200]

Again... a cooling planet with elevated levels of CO2 disproves all of that. And that is empirical evidence. Not a computer model output which is what they are basing all of their statements upon. Garbage in equals garbage out.

Not necessarily. The conditions of the planet that affected weather patterns matters. Volcanic eruptions, plate tectonics, mountain formation, oceans, polar ice caps, etc. those all drive warming and cooling periods. They affect the amount of co2 in the atmosphere as well.

 

[Slade3200]

By attributing all warming to an incremental 120 ppm of CO2 which is 3 times greater than it's theoretical GHG effect. A much better explanation for the warming is that that is what always happens after a glacial period has ended and the northern hemisphere is deglaciating. Why? Because heat is being circulated from the Atlantic to the Arctic and is causing the Arctic to be 5C warmer than if that heat were not being circulated to the Arctic. Today's temperature is 2C cooler than the previous interglacial with 120 ppm more CO2 than the previous glacial. How do you explain that if CO2 is such a dominate force in driving climate?

Well the polar ice sheets are larger in modern times and they serve as a reflector of solar radiation. As you well understand climate is driven by a number of different factors. CO2 is only a piece of the puzzle… an extra layer in a complex system

 

[Slade3200]

So, statistical methods. Not empirical data.

Thank you.

Empirical data is used in statistical methods. Did you read the study?

 

[EMH]

Well the polar ice sheets are larger in modern times and they serve as a reflector of solar radiation. As you well understand climate is driven by a number of different factors. CO2 is only a piece of the puzzle… an extra layer in a complex system

The reflection stuff is there but minor. Co2 does nothing.

Ice is the variable that matters, and ice on Earth is about land near the poles, not atmosphere or sun.

 

[Slade3200]

The reflection stuff is there but minor. Co2 does nothing.

Ice is the variable that matters, and ice on Earth is about land near the poles, not atmosphere or sun.

CO2 is part of our atmosphere that absorbs and regulates heat. It’s the reason we don’t have extreme heat during the day and extreme cold at night. For you to say it does nothing shows that you can’t have an honest conversation about the issue

 

[EMH]

CO2 is part of our atmosphere

yeah, like way under 1% of it....

that absorbs and regulates heat

and has for billions of years, so what, it doesn't cause climate change.

Greenland froze while North America thawed

eliminating atmosphere and Sun as suspects

 

[westwall]

Empirical data is used in statistical methods. Did you read the study?

Yes, they took a bunch of numbers, mainly from computer models, then ran them through a couple of different statistical methods to get the results they wanted.

 

[westwall]

CO2 is part of our atmosphere that absorbs and regulates heat. It’s the reason we don’t have extreme heat during the day and extreme cold at night. For you to say it does nothing shows that you can’t have an honest conversation about the issue

No, it doesn't. Its concentration is so low that whatever effect it could have is totally swamped by the water vapor which operates within the same frequencies.

 

[Slade3200]

Yes, they took a bunch of numbers, mainly from computer models, then ran them through a couple of different statistical methods to get the results they wanted.

Seems like you’re the one here making up narratives about studies and situations you had no part of

 

[Slade3200]

No, it doesn't. Its concentration is so low that whatever effect it could have is totally swamped by the water vapor which operates within the same frequencies.

What study do you have that backs up that point? I’d like to take a look at the empirical data

 

[ding]

Not necessarily. The conditions of the planet that affected weather patterns matters. Volcanic eruptions, plate tectonics, mountain formation, oceans, polar ice caps, etc. those all drive warming and cooling periods. They affect the amount of co2 in the atmosphere as well.

The land configuration hasn't changed materially in the last 50 million years. Eruptions didn't play a part. Yes, the planet became bipolar glaciated but of course it was cooling for millions of years with elevated levels of CO2. Whatever conditions existed then exist today. The planet is in an interglacial period but the overall trend is for a cooling planet. Look at the oxygen isotope curve and tell me that isn't the trend.

 

[ding]

Well the polar ice sheets are larger in modern times and they serve as a reflector of solar radiation. As you well understand climate is driven by a number of different factors. CO2 is only a piece of the puzzle… an extra layer in a complex system

If you are arguing that the reason it is cooler today than it was in the last interglacial period is because the northern hemisphere isn't as deglaciated today as it was then then yes, 100% that is the reason it is cooler today. That proves my point. The planet is warming because the northern hemisphere is still deglaciating. That will end as soon as the AMOC switches off and the Arctic begins to rapidly glaciate like it has over 30 times in the last 3 million years.