The sun is constant yet ocean temperatures increase and decrease. Why?

[Slade3200]

It doesn't negate it per se but at a minimum it skews it and at a maximum it changes the conclusions of modelling.

Scientists come to opposite conclusions about the causes of recent climate change depending on which datasets they consider. For instance, the panels on the left lead to the conclusion that global temperature changes since the mid-19th century have been mostly due to human-caused emissions, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), i.e., the conclusion reached by the UN IPCC reports. In contrast, the panels on the right lead to the exact opposite conclusion, i.e., that the global temperature changes since the mid-19th century have been mostly due to natural cycles, chiefly long-term changes in the energy emitted by the Sun.

Both sets of panels are based on published scientific data, but each uses different datasets and assumptions. On the left, it is assumed that the available temperature records are unaffected by the urban heat island problem, and so all stations are used, whether urban or rural. On the right, only rural stations are used. Meanwhile, on the left, solar output is modeled using the low variability dataset that has been chosen for the IPCC’s upcoming (in 2021/2022) 6th Assessment Reports. This implies zero contribution from natural factors to the long-term warming. On the right, solar output is modeled using a high variability dataset used by the team in charge of NASA’s ACRIM sun-monitoring satellites. This implies that most, if not all, of the long-term temperature changes are due to natural factors.

Here is the link to the full paper.
ShieldSquare Captcha

Forgive me if I’m reading this wrong but I clearly see data showing human influence on both sides of the chart. I realize the title says “Mostly natural” but even that imply that some is from human activity. And the graph looks to be exponentially rising…. This could be a significant thing for generations to come, don’t you think?

 

[Slade3200]

The WSJ had a full documentation of that. You've seen the atmospheric temp fudge job, and that's #1 because the TRUTH of the DATA is that Co2 does NOTHING, and there WAS NEVER ANY DATA SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.

I’ve posted the data. You’re ignoring it and now shifting into broken record mode. Not showing a thing but just repeating empty claims. Yawn, you’re getting boring

 

[ding]

Forgive me if I’m reading this wrong but I clearly see data showing human influence on both sides of the chart. I realize the title says “Mostly natural” but even that imply that some is from human activity. And the graph looks to be exponentially rising…. This could be a significant thing for generations to come, don’t you think?

No need to forgive. Honest men can have honest differences of opinions. Given that climate fluctuations increased when the planet became bipolar glaciated (for good reason I might add) and given that the geologic record is littered with warming and cooling trends that were not caused by CO2 or orbital forcing, I think it's disingenuous to zero out natural causes and attribute all warming to an incremental 120 ppm of atmospheric CO2. Especially since the theoretical surface warming is only 0.5C at most and 0.22C at the least.

 

[Slade3200]

No need to forgive. Honest men can have honest differences of opinions. Given that climate fluctuations increased when the planet became bipolar glaciated (for good reason I might add) and given that the geologic record is littered with warming and cooling trends that were not caused by CO2 or orbital forcing, I think it's disingenuous to zero out natural causes and attribute all warming to an incremental 120 ppm of atmospheric CO2. Especially since the theoretical surface warming is only 0.5C at most and 0.22C at the least.

Oh I can easily agree with you there. CO2 is a minor influencer in the grand scheme of climate change especially when considering glacial and interglacial periods. We've had periods of high CO2 concentrations and much higher temperatures... Of course at that time our continents were different, most life were marine organisms and most of the terrain was swamp. In the small window in which we currently live we have a delicate ecosystem yielding conditions for the human civilization to live. We need to consider crops, and plant life, and coastlines, and infrastructure. The small effect that CO2 can have on the atmosphere may be insignificant in the big picture of climate through the ages, but may be very significant to the sliver of time that we humans are occupying the earth. Not necessarily for our generation but for generations ahead of us.

 

[ding]

Oh I can easily agree with you there. CO2 is a minor influencer in the grand scheme of climate change especially when considering glacial and interglacial periods. We've had periods of high CO2 concentrations and much higher temperatures... Of course at that time our continents were different, most life were marine organisms and most of the terrain was swamp. In the small window in which we currently live we have a delicate ecosystem yielding conditions for the human civilization to live. We need to consider crops, and plant life, and coastlines, and infrastructure. The small effect that CO2 can have on the atmosphere may be insignificant in the big picture of climate through the ages, but may be very significant to the sliver of time that we humans are occupying the earth. Not necessarily for our generation but for generations ahead of us.

Here's a good discussion on that aspect. It may surprise you. It did me. Not because of the content because I already knew all that but because of who was saying it. He's a credible witness.

 

[abu afak]

You make these conversations harder than they need be by your rude and childish behavior.

When dealing with people like abu afak it's helpful to remember that with behaviors like that there's no way that they are professionals. At best they are low wage workers if even that.

You really know how to make friends and influence people.

I suggest you study up on transactional analysis. It will help you learn how to converse like an adult instead of a spoiled brat who isn't getting her way.

​

Search results for query: fudge packer​

1. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   Any debate on global warming now OVER!?​

   You are full of shit. Post a link disputing oxygen isotopes, fudge packer.
   • ding
   • Post #542
   • Oct 10, 2024
   • Forum: Environment
2. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   How Extreme Heat and Humidity Are Testing the Human Body’s Limits ('24 looking like Another Record)​

   Are you a fudge packer?
   • ding
   • Post #36
   • Sep 11, 2024
   • Forum: Environment
3. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   Looks like Hurricane Milton is gonna be huge...Now a Cat 4​

   Post a link that disputes oxygen isotopes, fudge packer.
   • ding
   • Post #291
   • Oct 10, 2024
   • Forum: Environment
4. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   Worst drought on record lowers Amazon rivers to all-time lows​

   You are as incoherent as Apu, fudge packer.
   • ding
   • Post #246
   • Oct 10, 2024
   • Forum: Environment
5. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   Looks like Hurricane Milton is gonna be huge...Now a Cat 4​

   Incorrect, fudge packer. Oxygen isotope measurements are considered highly accurate, especially when analyzed using modern mass spectrometry techniques, providing a reliable tool for studying past climates and geological processes due to their good reproducibility and sensitivity to...
   • ding
   • Post #289
   • Oct 10, 2024
   • Forum: Environment
6. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   TULIP (God calls some to atheism)​

   God created it so you could share in His existence.
   • ding
   • Post #189
   • Apr 7, 2021
   • Forum: Religion and Ethics
7. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   TULIP (God calls some to atheism)​

   The connection is that what was created is evidence, dummy. Evidence is used to prove. But it seems your strategy is to systematically rule out the use of any and all evidence that can be used to prove God's existence solely because the existence of that evidence can be used to prove God's...
   • ding
   • Post #211
   • Apr 7, 2021
   • Forum: Religion and Ethics
8. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   The FZ 4F Draft - 6/2/17 - Roster and Judges​

   If tree worked in a fudge factory he'd be the one putting the fudge in boxes.... a fudge packer.
   • ding
   • Post #136
   • Jun 1, 2017
   • Forum: The Flame Zone
9. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
   

   The FZ 4F Draft - 6/2/17 - Roster and Judges​

   Timing is everything.
   • ding
   • Post #148
   • Jun 1, 2017
   • Forum: The Flame Zone
10. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
    

    The FZ 4F Draft - 6/2/17 - Roster and Judges​

    Your tears taste great and they are less filling.
    • ding
    • Post #145
    • Jun 1, 2017
    • Forum: The Flame Zone
11. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
    

    The FZ 4F Draft - 6/2/17 - Roster and Judges​

    I have to give you credit... there isn't much room in there but you found a way to let me into your head.
    • ding
    • Post #169
    • Jun 2, 2017
    • Forum: The Flame Zone
12. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
    

    The FZ 4F Draft - 6/2/17 - Roster and Judges​

    Anytime you want to go one on one, I'd be more than happy to show you the 50 states. You don't impress me at all.
    • ding
    • Post #153
    • Jun 1, 2017
    • Forum: The Flame Zone
13. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
    

    I can no longer look at white girls the same after seeing the video​

    You get paid for packing fudgewith your ding dong? That's even more sick, bro. Your secret is safe with me.
    • ding
    • Post #47
    • Apr 5, 2017
    • Forum: The Flame Zone
14. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
    

    I can no longer look at white girls the same after seeing the video​

    You're a fudge packerteacher? That's sick, bro.
    • ding
    • Post #45
    • Apr 5, 2017
    • Forum: The Flame Zone
15. [IMG alt="ding"]https://www.usmessageboard.com/data/avatars/s/59/59921.jpg?1624675561[/IMG]
    

    I can no longer look at white girls the same after seeing the video​

    Try looking at this from my perspective... You created an OP about not being attracted to girls. Your avatar FBJ stands for FudgeBJ. You love CowBOYS. Not to mention that you just asked me to pack your nuts. If that doesn't scream that you are gay I don't know what does.
    • ding
    • Post #49
    • Apr 5, 2017
    • Forum: The Flame Zone

`

 

[westwall]

The most important greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth's atmosphere, which contribute to the greenhouse effect and global warming, include:

### 1. Water Vapor (H₂O)
- Role: Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas and plays a crucial role in the natural greenhouse effect. It can absorb a wide range of infrared radiation, significantly contributing to warming.
- Feedback Mechanism: Water vapor acts as a feedback mechanism rather than a direct driver of climate change. As the atmosphere warms due to other greenhouse gases, it can hold more water vapor, which in turn amplifies warming.

### 2. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)
- Role: CO₂ is the second most significant greenhouse gas and is primarily responsible for the anthropogenic (human-caused) increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. It is released through fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and various industrial processes.
- Impact: While less effective at trapping heat than water vapor, CO₂'s long atmospheric lifetime (hundreds to thousands of years) means it significantly influences long-term climate change.

### 3. Methane (CH₄)
- Role: Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is over 25 times more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere than CO₂ over a 100-year period, although it is present in much lower concentrations.
- Sources: Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, oil, and natural gas. It is also released by livestock during digestion (enteric fermentation), by landfills, and from wetlands.

### 4. Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)
- Role: Nitrous oxide is a greenhouse gas that is about 298 times more effective at trapping heat than CO₂ over a 100-year period. Although it is present in smaller amounts, it has a significant warming potential.
- Sources: It is released from agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning.

### 5. Ozone (O₃)
- Role: Ozone is a greenhouse gas that occurs naturally in the stratosphere, where it protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation. However, ozone in the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) acts as a greenhouse gas and is a pollutant.
- Formation: Tropospheric ozone is formed from chemical reactions between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the presence of sunlight.

### 6. Fluorinated Gases
- Role: This group includes synthetic gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆). These gases are potent greenhouse gases with high global warming potentials, but they are typically present in much lower concentrations than CO₂, methane, or nitrous oxide.
- Sources: They are used in various industrial applications, refrigeration, and air conditioning.

### Summary
While water vapor is the most abundant and has the largest impact on the greenhouse effect, CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide are the most significant anthropogenic greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Each of these gases plays a unique role in the overall climate system, and their interactions and concentrations are critical for understanding and addressing climate change.

Water vapor controls the atmospheric temps. The GHG's you list are in such minute amounts that their effects are completely nullified by the water vapor.

They have no impact on global temps. And water vapor merely acts like a blanket. It doesn't add energy into the system. It merely slows down the rate at which that energy leaves the Earth at night.

 

[abu afak]

Water vapor controls the atmospheric temps. The GHG's you list are in such minute amounts that their effects are completely nullified by the water vapor.

They have no impact on global temps. And water vapor merely acts like a blanket. It doesn't add energy into the system. It merely slows down the rate at which that energy leaves the Earth at night.

Water Vapor, CO2, and Global Warming​

MYTH: Water vapor is the most important, abundant greenhouse gas. So if we’re going to control a greenhouse gas, why don’t we control it instead of carbon dioxide (CO2)?

This is a common Misconception in the debate over greenhouse gases and the causes of global warming. Both water vapor and carbon dioxide are important greenhouse gases that play a crucial role in atmospheric warming. A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation in Earth’s atmosphere, thereby increasing temperatures. Which gas then is to blame for global warming and should be controlled?

Water vapor accounts for 60-70% of the greenhouse effect while CO2 accounts for 25% —a notable difference when numbers alone are compared. It would seem then that water vapor should be climatologists’ primary focus. However, water vapor cannot be controlled by human intervention; it is simply a Product of its environment.

The amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold is dependent on temperature. Under normal conditions, most of the heat emitted from Earth’s surface in the form of long wave radiation goes into the atmosphere and out into space. However, the presence of increased greenhouse gases traps more long-wave radiation, which means there is more energy in the atmosphere to warm the Earth’s surface.

As the atmospheric temperature rises, more water is evaporated from ground storage, such as that found in our rivers, oceans, soils, and reservoirs. The released water vapor becomes a greenhouse gas where it then absorbs more energy radiated from the Earth and thus warms the atmosphere. The warmer atmosphere results in further water evaporation and the cycle continues. This mechanism is known as a Positive Feedback Loop.

Scientists then need to focus on what is causing air temperatures to rise in the first place.
Heat from Other Greenhouse Gases is Causing atmospheric Warming, Leading to an increase in water evaporation and compounding the greenhouse effect.
Anthropogenic, or human-derived, CO2 serves as the Primary source of Warming with water vapor playing a Secondary role.
While CO2 occurs naturally in the atmosphere, human interference has interrupted the carbon cycle through activities, such as burning forests, mining, and burning coal. These activities artificially release more carbon from their solid storage to its gaseous state in the lower atmosphere. The rapid increase in CO2 volume has exceeded the amount oceans and vegetation are able to re-absorb. Furthermore, as deforestation continues around the world, there is less vegetation every year available to sequester the carbon. Thus, excess CO2 remains in the atmosphere where it traps heat and stimulates water evaporation."...."

Water Vapor, CO2, and Global Warming | IEDRO​

`

 

[ding]

Scientists then need to focus on what is causing air temperatures to rise in the first place.

`

It's simple. When the northern hemisphere deglaciates the oceans and the atmosphere warm. The empirical climate evidence for this is overwhelming.

 

[Slade3200]

Here's a good discussion on that aspect. It may surprise you. It did me. Not because of the content because I already knew all that but because of who was saying it. He's a credible witness.

Interesting... I haven't heard of this guy. The one issue that stuck out to me was the point he was trying to make referencing the lag that CO2 had on Temperature as evidence that CO2 doesn't drive Temperature change. Its a tricky point but I'd think he would understand that over the life of our planet and climate cycles, in a natural/balanced system the Temperature changes drove the CO2 content in our atmosphere and CO2 was not a driver of the climates change patterns.

The modern day issue is with the extra CO2 that human activity is injecting into the atmosphere and the resulting greenhouse effects it has on temperature... Something that isn't going to jump us into an ice age this decade but something that can accelerate severe weather events and global climate change in a way that messes with our ecosystem.

Here are some peer reviewed studies showing data about this process:

Byrne and Goldblatt (2014) – Radiative Forcing at High CO₂ Levels: Understanding the Role of CO₂ in Climate Sensitivity​

• This study explores how CO₂’s radiative forcing continues to contribute to warming even at high concentrations. It focuses on understanding climate sensitivity, which refers to how much the Earth’s temperature will increase in response to a doubling of CO₂.
• The study reaffirms that CO₂ remains a dominant greenhouse gas at both low and high concentrations, directly driving changes in Earth’s energy balance and leading to long-term warming.

Reference: Byrne, B., & Goldblatt, C. (2014). "Radiative forcing at high concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases." Geophysical Research Letters, 41(1), 152-160.

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) – Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010​

• This study used statistical methods to separate the influences of natural factors (e.g., solar variability, volcanic aerosols) from anthropogenic factors (like CO₂ emissions) on global temperatures. They found that the recent warming is overwhelmingly driven by human activity, specifically from increasing CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
• The study helps clarify that natural climate variability cannot account for the observed global temperature trends in recent decades, highlighting CO₂ as the main driver.

Reference: Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010." Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 044022.

 

[Slade3200]

Water vapor controls the atmospheric temps. The GHG's you list are in such minute amounts that their effects are completely nullified by the water vapor.

They have no impact on global temps. And water vapor merely acts like a blanket. It doesn't add energy into the system. It merely slows down the rate at which that energy leaves the Earth at night.

Here check out this study:

Lacis et al. (2010) – Atmospheric CO₂: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature​

• This study describes how CO₂ acts as the "control knob" that regulates Earth's temperature. The authors used climate models to show that without CO₂, Earth’s temperature would be significantly cooler. While water vapor and clouds are important in trapping heat, CO₂ is the main driver in controlling the overall energy balance.
• The study emphasizes how the greenhouse effect would collapse without sufficient CO₂, demonstrating its central role in maintaining Earth’s temperature.

Reference: Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Rind, D., & Ruedy, R. A. (2010). "Atmospheric CO₂: Principal control knob governing Earth's temperature." Science, 330(6002), 356-359.

 

[ding]

Interesting... I haven't heard of this guy. The one issue that stuck out to me was the point he was trying to make referencing the lag that CO2 had on Temperature as evidence that CO2 doesn't drive Temperature change. Its a tricky point but I'd think he would understand that over the life of our planet and climate cycles, in a natural/balanced system the Temperature changes drove the CO2 content in our atmosphere and CO2 was not a driver of the climates change patterns.

The modern day issue is with the extra CO2 that human activity is injecting into the atmosphere and the resulting greenhouse effects it has on temperature... Something that isn't going to jump us into an ice age this decade but something that can accelerate severe weather events and global climate change in a way that messes with our ecosystem.

Here are some peer reviewed studies showing data about this process:

Byrne and Goldblatt (2014) – Radiative Forcing at High CO₂ Levels: Understanding the Role of CO₂ in Climate Sensitivity​

• This study explores how CO₂’s radiative forcing continues to contribute to warming even at high concentrations. It focuses on understanding climate sensitivity, which refers to how much the Earth’s temperature will increase in response to a doubling of CO₂.
• The study reaffirms that CO₂ remains a dominant greenhouse gas at both low and high concentrations, directly driving changes in Earth’s energy balance and leading to long-term warming.

Reference: Byrne, B., & Goldblatt, C. (2014). "Radiative forcing at high concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases." Geophysical Research Letters, 41(1), 152-160.

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) – Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010​

• This study used statistical methods to separate the influences of natural factors (e.g., solar variability, volcanic aerosols) from anthropogenic factors (like CO₂ emissions) on global temperatures. They found that the recent warming is overwhelmingly driven by human activity, specifically from increasing CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
• The study helps clarify that natural climate variability cannot account for the observed global temperature trends in recent decades, highlighting CO₂ as the main driver.

Reference: Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010." Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 044022.

I don't buy the argument that today's weather is unusual. It's no different than the weather of any of the previous interglacial periods. And as for climate sensitivity/long term warming, if the planet was sensitive to CO2 like they are saying, the planet would have never have cooled in the first place.

Previous interglacials were warmer than today so how can today's weather be considered unusual?

The planet cooled with much higher concentrations than today so how can there be climate sensitivity to CO2?

 

[westwall]

Here check out this study:

Lacis et al. (2010) – Atmospheric CO₂: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature​

• This study describes how CO₂ acts as the "control knob" that regulates Earth's temperature. The authors used climate models to show that without CO₂, Earth’s temperature would be significantly cooler. While water vapor and clouds are important in trapping heat, CO₂ is the main driver in controlling the overall energy balance.
• The study emphasizes how the greenhouse effect would collapse without sufficient CO₂, demonstrating its central role in maintaining Earth’s temperature.

Reference: Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Rind, D., & Ruedy, R. A. (2010). "Atmospheric CO₂: Principal control knob governing Earth's temperature." Science, 330(6002), 356-359.

The "knob" claim has been proven false years ago. The only "evidence" to support the claim were computer models of known dubious quality.

 

[westwall]

I don't buy the argument that today's weather is unusual. It's no different than the weather of any of the previous interglacial periods. And as for climate sensitivity/long term warming, if the planet was sensitive to CO2 like they are saying, the planet would have never have cooled in the first place.

Previous interglacials were warmer than today so how can today's weather be considered unusual?

The planet cooled with much higher concentrations than today so how can there be climate sensitivity to CO2?

Correct. There is nothing occurring today that hasn't occurred many, many, many times in the past.

 

[westwall]

Interesting... I haven't heard of this guy. The one issue that stuck out to me was the point he was trying to make referencing the lag that CO2 had on Temperature as evidence that CO2 doesn't drive Temperature change. Its a tricky point but I'd think he would understand that over the life of our planet and climate cycles, in a natural/balanced system the Temperature changes drove the CO2 content in our atmosphere and CO2 was not a driver of the climates change patterns.

The modern day issue is with the extra CO2 that human activity is injecting into the atmosphere and the resulting greenhouse effects it has on temperature... Something that isn't going to jump us into an ice age this decade but something that can accelerate severe weather events and global climate change in a way that messes with our ecosystem.

Here are some peer reviewed studies showing data about this process:

Byrne and Goldblatt (2014) – Radiative Forcing at High CO₂ Levels: Understanding the Role of CO₂ in Climate Sensitivity​

• This study explores how CO₂’s radiative forcing continues to contribute to warming even at high concentrations. It focuses on understanding climate sensitivity, which refers to how much the Earth’s temperature will increase in response to a doubling of CO₂.
• The study reaffirms that CO₂ remains a dominant greenhouse gas at both low and high concentrations, directly driving changes in Earth’s energy balance and leading to long-term warming.

Reference: Byrne, B., & Goldblatt, C. (2014). "Radiative forcing at high concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases." Geophysical Research Letters, 41(1), 152-160.

Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) – Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010​

• This study used statistical methods to separate the influences of natural factors (e.g., solar variability, volcanic aerosols) from anthropogenic factors (like CO₂ emissions) on global temperatures. They found that the recent warming is overwhelmingly driven by human activity, specifically from increasing CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
• The study helps clarify that natural climate variability cannot account for the observed global temperature trends in recent decades, highlighting CO₂ as the main driver.

Reference: Foster, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010." Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 044022.

What should give you pause is that every single one of those "studies" is computer model derived. Computer models are not data. They are fiction, created by a computer model designer. What I find amusing is they preface their "studies" with "we use a simple model" Those models are completely worthless.

Why do I say this? Because the F1 racing teams use the most expensive, accurate, and best designed computer models in the world. They are Computation Fluid Dynamic models, also used in the aerospace industry. They cost tens of millions to buy, cost tens of millions to operate, and even with that, they have a success rate of less than 1%, and they are only dealing with 7 or 8 variables.

How reliable do you think a computer model is going to be that cost a few thousand dollars, and IGNORES most of the important variables?

 

[Slade3200]

The "knob" claim has been proven false years ago. The only "evidence" to support the claim were computer models of known dubious quality.

Are you just making stuff up now? Did you even look at the study and methods used?

 

[Slade3200]

What should give you pause is that every single one of those "studies" is computer model derived. Computer models are not data

Models are made by using data and measurements and current/historical observations.

 

[ding]

Are you just making stuff up now? Did you even look at the study and methods used?

I'd be curious to know why they believe CO2 is the main driver in controlling the overall energy balance. That does not compute. CO2 does not have magical properties. It's actually a relatively weak GHG.

The authors used climate models to show that without CO₂, Earth’s temperature would be significantly cooler. While water vapor and clouds are important in trapping heat, CO₂ is the main driver in controlling the overall energy balance.

 

[ding]

Models are made by using data and measurements and current/historical observations.

Actually they fit the model to match the data. Their models intentionally tune out (what they call drift). Their assumption is that there are no natural climate variations. I have a problem with that considering that climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty are hallmarks of our bipolar glaciated planet.

 

[Slade3200]

Why do I say this? Because the F1 racing teams use the most expensive, accurate, and best designed computer models in the world. They are Computation Fluid Dynamic models, also used in the aerospace industry. They cost tens of millions to buy, cost tens of millions to operate, and even with that, they have a success rate of less than 1%, and they are only dealing with 7 or 8 variables.

How reliable do you think a computer model is going to be that cost a few thousand dollars, and IGNORES most of the important variables?

I'd be curious to know why they believe CO2 is the main driver in controlling the overall energy balance. That does not compute. CO2 does not have magical properties. It's actually a relatively weak GHG.

Here’s why CO₂ is so important, despite being "weaker" than other greenhouse gases:

1. CO₂ is Long-Lived in the Atmosphere​

• CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years, much longer than other greenhouse gases like water vapor, which can cycle out of the atmosphere in days or weeks. This makes CO₂ a long-term driverof the Earth’s climate system.
• Water vapor, for instance, is more abundant and has a stronger immediate warming effect, but its concentration in the atmosphere is largely a feedback, not a driver. The level of water vapor is determined by temperature (warmer air holds more moisture), which in turn is influenced by CO₂ and other long-lived greenhouse gases.

2. CO₂ Acts as the "Control Knob"​

• Water vapor amplifies warming through a feedback loop, but CO₂ is often described as the "control knob" for Earth’s temperature. This is because CO₂ sets the baseline for the greenhouse effect, influencing the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold.
• When CO₂ levels rise, temperatures increase, leading to more evaporation and higher water vaporconcentrations, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. Thus, while water vapor has a more immediate warming potential, it cannot drive temperature increases on its own without a forcing agent like CO₂.

3. Radiative Forcing from CO₂ is Cumulative​

• Radiative forcing refers to the change in energy balance caused by changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. CO₂ absorbs infrared radiation in specific wavelengths (between 4.2–4.4 µm and 14.5–15 µm), trapping heat that would otherwise escape into space.
• As CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere, each additional unit of CO₂ continues to add to the overall warming, even though the effect per molecule decreases logarithmically (meaning that the first additions of CO₂ have a stronger impact than later ones). This cumulative effect makes CO₂ a dominant factor in the long-term energy balance.

4. CO₂ Affects the Entire Atmosphere​

• Unlike water vapor, which is concentrated near the surface and in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), CO₂ is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere, including the stratosphere and even into higher layers.
• This means that CO₂’s ability to absorb and emit infrared radiation operates over a much larger portion of the atmosphere compared to water vapor, making it more effective at trapping heat at higher altitudes where water vapor is scarce.

5. CO₂ Does Not Saturate at its Key Absorption Bands​

• There is a misconception that CO₂’s greenhouse effect becomes "saturated" (i.e., that adding more CO₂ does not cause additional warming) because it already absorbs infrared radiation at certain wavelengths. However, while it's true that CO₂ strongly absorbs certain bands of infrared radiation, the edges of these absorption bands remain unsaturated.
• Adding more CO₂ increases the broadening of these absorption bands, trapping more heat. This means that even at high concentrations, additional CO₂ will continue to increase the greenhouse effect by absorbing more radiation at these marginal wavelengths.

6. CO₂'s Role in the Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks​

• CO₂ plays a critical role in the carbon cycle, where it interacts with various Earth systems, including oceans, forests, and soils. The oceans absorb large amounts of CO₂, but this process has limits, especially as water warms (warm water holds less CO₂ than cold water).
• As CO₂ levels rise, the ocean’s ability to absorb CO₂ diminishes, leaving more CO₂ in the atmosphere, which further amplifies warming. This interaction between CO₂ and other Earth systems makes it a key player in positive climate feedbacks, where small initial changes in CO₂ lead to more significant overall warming.

7. CO₂ Drives Temperature During Glacial-Interglacial Cycles​

• Historical climate records from ice cores show that while temperature changes initially lead CO₂ changesduring glacial-interglacial cycles (due to shifts in Earth’s orbit or solar radiation), the rising CO₂ concentrations act as a feedback that amplifies the warming. Once CO₂ starts to rise (due to processes like ocean outgassing), it contributes significantly to further increases in temperature.
• This pattern illustrates how CO₂ can amplify natural warming events and underscores its powerful role in sustaining and reinforcing climate changes.

8. Modern CO₂ Rise is the Primary Driver of Current Warming​

• In the modern context, CO₂ emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels, deforestation, etc.) are the primary driver of observed global warming. Atmospheric CO₂ levels have risen sharply since the Industrial Revolution, from about 280 ppm to over 420 ppm today.
• Multiple studies, including those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have concluded that the rise in CO₂ concentrations is responsible for the majority of the observed warming over the past century. No other factor explains the magnitude and rate of the current temperature increase.

Conclusion:​

CO₂ is considered a main driver of the Earth's overall energy balance, not because it's the strongest greenhouse gason a per-molecule basis, but because of its persistence, cumulative effect, distribution throughout the atmosphere, and its role in amplifying other greenhouse gases like water vapor. It serves as the "control knob" that regulates the Earth's temperature, making it central to the dynamics of global warming and climate change.

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