The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

[bripat9643]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

Nobody fucking knows yet you brain dead idiot. We have to see how things play out. They are expecting a peak in new cases in about 2 weeks and the peak in deaths will follow behind that. it is the new cases that is the most important for when we can start to return things back to normal.

You are like a fucking kid stuck in traffic asking daddy when they will be able to move again...

 

[cwise76]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

If you spent a little less time running your mouth and a little more time listening to people like Dr. Fauci you might find the answers you’re looking for.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

If you spent a little less time running your mouth and a little more time listening to people like Dr. Fauci you might find the answers you’re looking for.

His god is giving them to him and he is not even listening to that...there is no hope for him

 

[bripat9643]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

Nobody fucking knows yet you brain dead idiot. We have to see how things play out. They are expecting a peak in new cases in about 2 weeks and the peak in deaths will follow behind that. it is the new cases that is the most important for when we can start to return things back to normal.

You are like a fucking kid stuck in traffic asking daddy when they will be able to move again...

If you don't know then quit claiming I want to kill people. If you can't state the conditions for ending the lock down, then you're just a fucking demagogue. If there's one thing all you douchebags refuse to do is to be specific about the deadline for your demands.

Again, you claimed "when it's time." That isn't an answer. That's bullshit.

 

[bripat9643]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

If you spent a little less time running your mouth and a little more time listening to people like Dr. Fauci you might find the answers you’re looking for.

His god is giving them to him and he is not even listening to that...there is no hope for him

I'm an atheist, so that obviously isn't right.

 

[bripat9643]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

If you spent a little less time running your mouth and a little more time listening to people like Dr. Fauci you might find the answers you’re looking for.

Fauci is a Hillary butthole sucking douchebag. Like you, he isn't giving any answers. The fact that you believe he's infallible only shows that you're a TDS moron.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

If you don't know then quit claiming I want to kill people. If can't state the conditions for ending the lock down, then you're just a fucking demagogu If there's one thing all you douchebags refuse to do is to be specific about the deadline for your demands.

I have never made such claims, but they so seem reasonable. I have no demands, I am passing along to you what the experts put in charge by the man you worship are saying.

Again, you claimed "when it's time." That isn't an answer. That's bullshit.

It is actually the right answer, nobody can give an exact fucking day, that is just stupid.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

The shutdown has to end at some point, and people are going to continue dieing afterwards. So tell us, when should that occur? Why aren't you to blame for every person who dies after your specified date? Are you going to tell us that we can't go back to work for 2 years?

Please enlighten us to the date.

After we have mitigated it enough that the spike flattens some in both deaths and new cases. People will die from it forever, it will never go away.

As it stands the most optimistic estimates are 100,000 deaths from this in the US. The majority of those in the next 45 days. That is with all the precautions in place, it would be 10 times that high without them.

The usual vague mish mash. "When it's time" is not an answer, and that's all you've said.

If you spent a little less time running your mouth and a little more time listening to people like Dr. Fauci you might find the answers you’re looking for.

His god is giving them to him and he is not even listening to that...there is no hope for him

I'm an atheist, so that obviously isn't right.

True, but Trump is not a real god so you can be an atheist and still worship him.

 

[playtime]

Just another exercise in bullshitting for Trumpbots?

Turds like you are doing all the bullshitting.

Right...all the medical experts in the whole world are outright lying, while a few enlightened people like yourself are the only ones that know the truth....

Are you truly that stupid or are you, like I said, just exercising your ability to BULLSHIT?

but it's DAN!!!!! from SQUIRREL HILL for GOD'S SAKE!!!!

why are you questioning DAN????????????? he knows EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!!! YOU TRAITOR!!!!!!!!!!!!

You can't argue with what he says so you engage in ad hominem attacks.

Typical TDS moron.

yaaaaaaaaa that's the ticket! it couldn't possibly be that good ol' dan has zero credentials & his article is actually just a blog & not anything written in a peer reviewed scholarly journal... my god man - it's like a poll that exclusively asks trump voters if he's doing a good job.... & you point to it & say see? SEE? americans think donny is doing great!!! SEE!!!!

Your fallacy in your argument is called "appeal to authority. " It doesn't matter how many credentials they have, they can still be wrong, and Fauci is obviously encouraging hysteria with his statements.

you are certifiable with your TDS.

TDS is something Trump haters suffer from, you fucking moron.

Trump Devotion Syndrome you psychophant.

No one gave TDS turds the right to change the definition, shit for brains.

^ buttercup ^

 

[sakinago]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

I was going to say that one problem with testing (the alive and dead) is the problem of FALSE POSITIVES: You may test people who test positive who have have some Covid in their lungs, etc., but are not even sick, have no symptoms, won't ever get sick and will never become contagious. Then you might have people with flu-like symptoms who die and test positive as well, but Covid was not the primary cause of death.

THERE IS NO WAY of truly knowing the extent or spread of SARS-2 Covid-19 in the population unless you took a sampling of the population BEFORE the infection started as your base reference. There is a good chance a fair number of people would test positive for Covid a year ago anyway even before the infection started, either due to RANDOM ERRORS in the testing itself or due to other viruses similar enough to Covid to fool the test.

They’re even questioning those false positives. They think upwards of maybe 50% of the population may just be completely asymptomatic. So those what they may have thought to have been false positives, could’ve been asymptomatic positives, without more extensive blood work performed. That 9/10 tests coming back as false positives just didn’t sound right to me, especially for anti-human antibody tests. False positives happen, but that’s a huge margin of error.

The bigger problem is how contagious this is. I suspect the actual death rate is going to be closer to 1-1.3%, which is still triple that of the flu (.4%). But with how contagious this is, that 1.3% hitting all at once could be very bad. Like what is happening in Italy and Spain, and most likely China. Italy is essentially refusing treatment to anyone over 60, that’s going to cause a lot more die than there needs to. So that’s going to skew the numbers up. God only knows how bad China is. It’s the perfect country for a virus like this to wreak havoc in. I’m sure their real death rate is actually higher than Italy’s is.

 

[bripat9643]

If you don't know then quit claiming I want to kill people. If can't state the conditions for ending the lock down, then you're just a fucking demagogu If there's one thing all you douchebags refuse to do is to be specific about the deadline for your demands.

I have never made such claims, but they so seem reasonable. I have no demands, I am passing along to you what the experts put in charge by the man you worship are saying.

Again, you claimed "when it's time." That isn't an answer. That's bullshit.

It is actually the right answer, nobody can give an exact fucking day, that is just stupid.

I didn't ask for an exact day. I asked for the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. And, of course, you dodged answering once again. The fact is you want it to do on as long as possible. The more damage to our economy the better, That means more votes against Trump, right?

What an asshole.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

If you don't know then quit claiming I want to kill people. If can't state the conditions for ending the lock down, then you're just a fucking demagogu If there's one thing all you douchebags refuse to do is to be specific about the deadline for your demands.

I have never made such claims, but they so seem reasonable. I have no demands, I am passing along to you what the experts put in charge by the man you worship are saying.

Again, you claimed "when it's time." That isn't an answer. That's bullshit.

It is actually the right answer, nobody can give an exact fucking day, that is just stupid.

I didn't ask for an exact day. I asked for the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. And, of course, you dodged answering once again. The fact is you want it to do on as long as possible. The more damage to our economy the better, That means more votes against Trump, right?

What an asshole.

I gave you the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. go back and read my post and you will have them.

 

[playtime]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Not far off from the paper released by 2 Stanford virologists last week... But I don't think they used Iceland as a comparison.. The Stanford people DID use other countries tho to arrive at a MUCH lower mortality rate..

Oh, they're virologists?

Read more carefully what I said.. The opinion in this OP is similar to 2 Stanford virologists who pushed a white paper last week... VERY similar and it got a lot of coverage that APPARENTLY , Morning Joe and Mikka did not give you... So that "blog site" is not very far off from what experts OUTSIDE the CDC are claiming...

GOT IT? Good -- now tune to Don Da Lemon for how many people Trump killed today....

Yep! How stupid are all the people saying this virus is a BIG DEAL???

I mean how quickly we forget every year so many people die that they have to set up temporary morgues and turn convention centers into make-shift hospitals!

^ nothing new here ^

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

The imaginary ones that visited you sound like they were coming to your house for a douchebag convention . You were hosting

You imagine that you're scoring points of some kind, don't you?

 

[bripat9643]

If you don't know then quit claiming I want to kill people. If can't state the conditions for ending the lock down, then you're just a fucking demagogu If there's one thing all you douchebags refuse to do is to be specific about the deadline for your demands.

I have never made such claims, but they so seem reasonable. I have no demands, I am passing along to you what the experts put in charge by the man you worship are saying.

Again, you claimed "when it's time." That isn't an answer. That's bullshit.

It is actually the right answer, nobody can give an exact fucking day, that is just stupid.

I didn't ask for an exact day. I asked for the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. And, of course, you dodged answering once again. The fact is you want it to do on as long as possible. The more damage to our economy the better, That means more votes against Trump, right?

What an asshole.

I gave you the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. go back and read my post and you will have them.

You gave utterly vague mish mash. "well, if the number of new cases is low enough and we know it's not going to start up again then may be we might consider it." You nailed down nothing.

 

[playtime]

Your real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.

Then your plan is to kill as many Americans as possible to shield dear leader's ego. How disgusting of you.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

If you don't know then quit claiming I want to kill people. If can't state the conditions for ending the lock down, then you're just a fucking demagogu If there's one thing all you douchebags refuse to do is to be specific about the deadline for your demands.

I have never made such claims, but they so seem reasonable. I have no demands, I am passing along to you what the experts put in charge by the man you worship are saying.

Again, you claimed "when it's time." That isn't an answer. That's bullshit.

It is actually the right answer, nobody can give an exact fucking day, that is just stupid.

I didn't ask for an exact day. I asked for the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. And, of course, you dodged answering once again. The fact is you want it to do on as long as possible. The more damage to our economy the better, That means more votes against Trump, right?

What an asshole.

I gave you the conditions that would indicate we can end the lockdown. go back and read my post and you will have them.

You gave utterly vague mish mash. "well, if the number of new cases is low enough and we know it's not going to start up again then may be we might consider it." You nailed down nothing.

There is no way to nail it down till after we hit the peak of the curve, whenever that is. Once we see a curve instead of an upwards slope we can start the process of returning things to normal. Trump's team is predicting that peak to be around April 15th.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

So anyone who disagrees with your timetable wants to kill your grandma

No, Trump cultists like you who want as many Americans to die as it takes to shield dear leader's ego are grandma killers. Duh. Try to follow.

 

[Lewdog]

The only people I'm listening to are the front line workers who are not only trying to save lives, but keep from getting sick themselves or infecting their family. A couple guys writing an academic paper this early into a pandemic without knowing the proper numbers is useless. Feel free to list the last time cities were forced to do the things going on right now.

You're not listening to anyone who contradicts the TDS fake news narrative designed to generate the maximum level of hysteria. Why would a nurse be more of an authority than someone who has done graduate studies in virology? No reason.

No one gives a shit about who you "listen to."

No, I'm listening to people that are ON THE FRONT LINES IN THE HOSPITALS, over people trying to crunch numbers that are changing every minute and almost 99.9% inaccurate. It would be like you writing a paper about how to build a racecar, but your only experience was watching the Fast and the Furious franchise. If no one cares what I listen to, then why the fuck did you reply to my post?

How are the people "on the front lines" going to give you accurate numbers if they don't crunch numbers? What are they going to do, stick a finger up their ass and then give you a number based on how bad it smells?

The bottom line is that you're blowing hot gas out your ass. You don't want to know that your figures are bogus, so you come up with lame excuses for ignoring the facts. You're a classic TDS moron who believes feelings are more important than facts.

The people on the front line know what the fuck is going on, and now just how many people are actually getting seriously ill and dying. You have the same issue as Trump does. You only look at numbers as a way to dehumanize the victims of the virus in order to hold your stance.

So then, if people disagree with you and say it is a lot worse than you say it is, you respond aggressively with the idea that those people are hoping it is bad just so it will hurt Trump. Despite what you may think, not everything is about Trump... I mean he did say he isn't responsible for anything bad going on.