The HadCRUT4 Global Temperature Dataset Now Unveils A Cooling Trend For The Last 7.5 Years

[Sunsettommy]

NTZ

The HadCRUT4 Global Temperature Dataset Now Unveils A Cooling Trend For The Last 7.5 Years

By Kenneth Richard on 19. July 2021

Excerpt:

Since the last day of 2001 CO2 has risen from 372 to 419 ppm. However, there have been two cooling periods of 12 years (2002-2014) and 7.5 years (2014-2021), separated by a 1.5-year El Niño-induced warming event (2015-2016). Temperature changes that proceed in step- or event-like fashion do not seem to correlate well with linearly-rising CO2 concentrations.​

HadCRUT4 temperature data (made available for public use by WoodForTrees.org) now presents a slight cooling trend since the first few months of 2014.

LINK

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Watch the CO2 haters scream against hard evidence.....

 

[itfitzme]

NTZ

The HadCRUT4 Global Temperature Dataset Now Unveils A Cooling Trend For The Last 7.5 Years

By Kenneth Richard on 19. July 2021

Excerpt:

Since the last day of 2001 CO2 has risen from 372 to 419 ppm. However, there have been two cooling periods of 12 years (2002-2014) and 7.5 years (2014-2021), separated by a 1.5-year El Niño-induced warming event (2015-2016). Temperature changes that proceed in step- or event-like fashion do not seem to correlate well with linearly-rising CO2 concentrations.​

HadCRUT4 temperature data (made available for public use by WoodForTrees.org) now presents a slight cooling trend since the first few months of 2014.

View attachment 514576

LINK

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Watch the CO2 haters scream against hard evidence..

Except that isn't how "hard evidence" works. You have left out the entire dataset before 2014.

This would be what you are doing with the data

The global mean temperature is affected by multiple factors including heat exchange with the oceans, cycles known as AMO, PDO, and the well known El Nino and La Nina. CO2 has continued to drive global temperature steadily upward. At the same time, heat exchange with the oceans is cyclical, causing periods of slower and faster warming. Between the two, the GMT increases linearly with a cycle overlaid on it.

To do science, you need to know what you are doing. I would suggest starting with a couple of courses in statistics so you understand how to properly analyze data.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Except that isn't how "hard evidence" works. You have left out the entire dataset before 2014.

This would be what you are doing with the data

View attachment 514579

The global mean temperature is affected by multiple factors including heat exchange with the oceans, cycles known as AMO, PDO, and the well known El Nino and La Nina. CO2 has continued to drive global temperature steadily upward. At the same time, heat exchange with the oceans is cyclical, causing periods of slower and faster warming. Between the two, the GMT increases linearly with a cycle overlaid on it.

To do science, you need to know what you are doing. I would suggest starting with a couple of courses in statistics so you understand how to properly analyze data.

Your skeptical science chart has been exposed as bullshit years ago, here it is why it is bullshit:

SkepticalScience Needs to Update their Escalator​

Posted on May 28, 2014 by Bob Tisdale

The SkepticalScience animation The Escalator has been around for a couple of years, and it has appeared in dozens of their posts and in blog posts by other carbon dioxide-obsessed alarmists. Their intent with The Escalator animation was to show that the instrument temperature record includes many short-term absences of global warming, while, in their minds, manmade greenhouse gases caused the long-term trend of global warming. With Kevin Trenberth now saying strong El Niño events caused global warming to occur in steps, SkepticalScience needs to revise their escalator animation. The steps are not only how skeptics view global warming…one of the leading ENSO and global warming researchers is now presenting global warming in El Niño-caused big jumps, and he also has written in at least two peer-reviewed papers that El Niños are fueled by sunlight.

So here’s my suggested replacement for SkepticalScience’s The Escalator. For lack of a better title, we’ll call it…

THE TRENBERTH GLOBAL WARMING STAIRCASE

Feel free to link it anywhere you like…especially where the CO2-obsessed have presented the SkepticalScience animation “The Escalator”.

LINK

 

[itfitzme]

Your skeptical science chart has been exposed as bullshit years ago, here it is why it is bullshit:

SkepticalScience Needs to Update their Escalator​

Posted on May 28, 2014 by Bob Tisdale

The SkepticalScience animation The Escalator has been around for a couple of years, and it has appeared in dozens of their posts and in blog posts by other carbon dioxide-obsessed alarmists. Their intent with The Escalator animation was to show that the instrument temperature record includes many short-term absences of global warming, while, in their minds, manmade greenhouse gases caused the long-term trend of global warming. With Kevin Trenberth now saying strong El Niño events caused global warming to occur in steps, SkepticalScience needs to revise their escalator animation. The steps are not only how skeptics view global warming…one of the leading ENSO and global warming researchers is now presenting global warming in El Niño-caused big jumps, and he also has written in at least two peer-reviewed papers that El Niños are fueled by sunlight.

So here’s my suggested replacement for SkepticalScience’s The Escalator. For lack of a better title, we’ll call it…

THE TRENBERTH GLOBAL WARMING STAIRCASE

Feel free to link it anywhere you like…especially where the CO2-obsessed have presented the SkepticalScience animation “The Escalator”.

LINK

You haven't added anything meaningful or useful.

 

[Sunsettommy]

itfitzme writes:

"Except that isn't how "hard evidence" works. You have left out the entire dataset before 2014."

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Ha ha, it is clear you didn't read this despite that it is right there in front of you:

"Since the last day of 2001 CO2 has risen from 372 to 419 ppm. However, there have been two cooling periods of 12 years (2002-2014) and 7.5 years (2014-2021), separated by a 1.5-year El Niño-induced warming event (2015-2016). Temperature changes that proceed in step- or event-like fashion do not seem to correlate well with linearly-rising CO2 concentrations."​

red bolding mine

 

[Sunsettommy]

You haven't added anything meaningful or useful.

You haven't shown that it is false or wrong.......

I showed how misleading the Skeptical science escalator is, too bad you ignored the article that exposes it.

It is the El-Nino phases that is causing the warming trend.

 

[Flash]

There have never been any credible evidence that CO2 levels in the range we are seeing now causes any changes in the climate.

Just some shit in-shit out computer models and some half ass silly correlations that are usually based on fabricated data.

 

[itfitzme]

itfitzme writes:

"Except that isn't how "hard evidence" works. You have left out the entire dataset before 2014."

=====

Ha ha, it is clear you didn't read this despite that it is right there in front of you:

"Since the last day of 2001 CO2 has risen from 372 to 419 ppm. However, there have been two cooling periods of 12 years (2002-2014) and 7.5 years (2014-2021), separated by a 1.5-year El Niño-induced warming event (2015-2016). Temperature changes that proceed in step- or event-like fashion do not seem to correlate well with linearly-rising CO2 concentrations."​

red bolding mine

Apparently you didn't read my very simple explanation. To do science, you have to use all the data, not select a subset that suits your predetermined conclusion. All you have done is cherry pick and assumed that only CO2 causes changes in GMT.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Apparently you didn't read my very simple explanation. To do science, you have to use all the data, not select a subset that suits your predetermined conclusion. All you have done is cherry pick and assumed that only CO2 causes changes in GMT.

Now you are being irrational here since the TOPIC of the post is this:

The HadCRUT4 Global Temperature Dataset Now Unveils A Cooling Trend For The Last 7.5 Years

Then this was shown which you haven't once disputed:

Since the last day of 2001 CO2 has risen from 372 to 419 ppm. However, there have been two cooling periods of 12 years (2002-2014) and 7.5 years (2014-2021), separated by a 1.5-year El Niño-induced warming event (2015-2016). Temperature changes that proceed in step- or event-like fashion do not seem to correlate well with linearly-rising CO2 concentrations.​

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These are FACTS you haven't disputed, you employ the tired out deflection bullshit to escalators and cherrypicking claims.

You haven't disputed that it cooled since 2014 (Fact)

You haven't disputed that it cooled since 2002 to 2014 (Fact)

It is clear you quickly go into bullshit, YOUR escalator chart ends at 2012 you dummy!

here is another chart you didn't see since you never read the article:

No relationship with CO2 at all since 2002.

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

humans do not effect the temperature of our planet

 

[Sunsettommy]

Here is the obvious El-Nino jumps that warms the atmosphere:

Figure 8

A number of things are very obvious in the time-series graph of the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, Figure 8:

First, the sea surface temperatures for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans warmed in upward steps or shifts in responses to the 1986/87/88, the 1997/98 and the 2009/10 El Niño events.

Second, there is little warming before, between or after those upward shifts. The horizontal blue lines, which represent the period-average temperatures between the strong El Niños, help to highlight the absence of warming during those periods. Dr. Trenberth presented similar horizontal dashed lines in his graph of global surface temperature anomalies. Note: The dip and rebound starting in 1991 is the response to the explosive volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. And as noted earlier, the response to the 1982/83 El Niño was counteracted by the eruption of El Chichon in 1982. As a result, there is only a minor shift in the sea surface temperatures in response to the 1982/83 El Niño.

Third, the sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans do not cool proportionally during the La Niña events that followed those strong El Niños. Refer again to the sea surface temperature data for the East Pacific, Figure 7, which does cool proportionally. Those were pretty strong La Niñas that followed the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niños, yet the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific sea surface temperature data hardly acknowledge them. And there are very basic reasons why they don’t cool proportionally during those La Niñas.

Fourth, without those strong El Niño events, there would obviously have been little to no warming of the sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans, and, in turn, there would have been little to no warming in Dr. Trenberth’s graph of global land-plus-sea surface temperatures, because the “big jumps” would be gone.

Fifth, or to look at it another way, if the sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific oceans had cooled proportionally during the La Niña events that followed the strong El Niños, the data would be similar to that of the East Pacific, and the sea surface temperatures in the East Pacific haven’t warmed in 31-plus years.

More detail on Figure 8: The periods highlighted in red correspond to the official months of the 1986/87/88, the 1997/98 and the 2009/10 El Niño events as presented by NOAA in their Oceanic NINO Index, but the periods have been lagged 6 months to account for the response time of the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans to the El Niños.

LINK

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It is El-Nino's NOT CO2 that is causing the warming in the atmosphere. Been obvious for decades too but warmist/alarmists have fallen for the CO2 did it nonsense.

 

[Sunsettommy]

humans do not effect the temperature of our planet

Actually that is misleading because you are leaving out Land Use effects and UHI effects of the cities and airports that help drive up temperature.

Rural temperature warming trend is a lot lower than in Urban areas, sometimes there is actual cooling trend in Rural regions but not in big UHI afflicted cities.

 

[Sunsettommy]

It has been COOLING for years according to UAH satellite data:

LINK

 

[Old Rocks]

It has been COOLING for years according to UAH satellite data:

View attachment 514595

LINK

Damn, you are that stupid. That graph shows exactly what the scientists have been telling us. The ten warmest years have occurred since 2005.

Climate Change: Global Temperature

Earth's surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the NOAA record in 1850. It may seem like a small change, but it's a tremendous increase in stored heat.

www.climate.gov

 

[Sunsettommy]

Damn, you are that stupid. That graph shows exactly what the scientists have been telling us. The ten warmest years have occurred since 2005. View attachment 514745

Climate Change: Global Temperature

Earth's surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the NOAA record in 1850. It may seem like a small change, but it's a tremendous increase in stored heat.

www.climate.gov

Ha ha ha, you didn't even address my claim at all, you ran to something very different which is why you failed:

The ten warmest years have occurred since 2005.

That has NOTHING to do with what I said:

The HadCRUT4 Global Temperature Dataset Now Unveils A Cooling Trend For The Last 7.5 Years



What I posted was backed by the data from HadCrut4, you never addressed it which is why you failed yet again.

 

[Sunsettommy]

It appears that a COOLING trend may continue for a while since La-Nina is forecasted to come back for the Fall and Winter season:

Watts Up With That?

Signs of a resurgence in La Nina and the potential implications on global temperatures and the upcoming winter season​

July 21, 2021

Paul Dorian

Excerpt:

Overview

La Nina conditions (cooler-than-normal water) developed early last year in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and then intensified some during the past winter season. In the first several months of this year, water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have trended towards neutral, but there are signs of a resurgence in La Nina as we head towards autumn. In fact, there are signs right now that suggest the resurgence may already be underway in the central Pacific Ocean. The return of La Nina could have implications on global temperatures and also on the upcoming winter season of 2021-2022.

Warm (red, none shown) and cold (blue) periods in this table are based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. La Nina conditions developed in the spring of 2020 and continued into the spring of this year, but has been trending towards neutral in recent months. Data source: NOAA/CPC

The Pacific Ocean and signs of a resurgence in La Nina

The Pacific Ocean is the largest on the planet, covers more than 30 percent of the Earth’s surface, and is bigger than the landmass of all the continents combined. The warm waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean store a great amount of latent heat compared to cooler waters and breed a great deal of convection which impact downstream ridging and troughing in the atmosphere. As such, its sea surface temperature (SST) pattern has a tremendous influence on all weather and climate around the world and the more anomalous the sea surface temperatures, the more the impact can be on the atmosphere around the world. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino warmer-than-normal water) and La Nina (colder-than-normal water) are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.

LINK

 

[Old Rocks]

Ha ha ha, you didn't even address my claim at all, you ran to something very different which is why you failed:


That has NOTHING to do with what I said:

The HadCRUT4 Global Temperature Dataset Now Unveils A Cooling Trend For The Last 7.5 Years



What I posted was backed by the data from HadCrut4, you never addressed it which is why you failed yet again.

OK, dumb fuck, here are some data from HadCRUT4;

Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets

www.metoffice.gov.uk

That is hardly showing a cooling trend. Basically you are doing that cherry picking stunt you lying assholes constantly do. Really, who can have the slightest respect for any of you?

 

[Old Rocks]

It appears that a COOLING trend may continue for a while since La-Nina is forecasted to come back for the Fall and Winter season:

Watts Up With That?

Signs of a resurgence in La Nina and the potential implications on global temperatures and the upcoming winter season​

July 21, 2021

Paul Dorian

Excerpt:

Overview

La Nina conditions (cooler-than-normal water) developed early last year in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and then intensified some during the past winter season. In the first several months of this year, water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have trended towards neutral, but there are signs of a resurgence in La Nina as we head towards autumn. In fact, there are signs right now that suggest the resurgence may already be underway in the central Pacific Ocean. The return of La Nina could have implications on global temperatures and also on the upcoming winter season of 2021-2022.

Warm (red, none shown) and cold (blue) periods in this table are based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. La Nina conditions developed in the spring of 2020 and continued into the spring of this year, but has been trending towards neutral in recent months. Data source: NOAA/CPC

The Pacific Ocean and signs of a resurgence in La Nina

The Pacific Ocean is the largest on the planet, covers more than 30 percent of the Earth’s surface, and is bigger than the landmass of all the continents combined. The warm waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean store a great amount of latent heat compared to cooler waters and breed a great deal of convection which impact downstream ridging and troughing in the atmosphere. As such, its sea surface temperature (SST) pattern has a tremendous influence on all weather and climate around the world and the more anomalous the sea surface temperatures, the more the impact can be on the atmosphere around the world. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino warmer-than-normal water) and La Nina (colder-than-normal water) are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.

LINK

Last year was a La Nina year, and it tied 2016 as the warmest year on record. Not only that, but the last seven years have been the warmest on record. You are such a silly liar with your claims of cooling.

Top 10 Warmest Years on Record

The global numbers are in, and 2019 ranks as the 2nd hottest year on record

www.climatecentral.org

2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows - NASA

Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.

www.nasa.gov

Globally, 2020 was the hottest year on record, effectively tying 2016, the previous record. Overall, Earth’s average temperature has risen more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1880s. Temperatures are increasing due to human activities, specifically emissions of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane.

 

[skookerasbil]

Damn, you are that stupid. That graph shows exactly what the scientists have been telling us. The ten warmest years have occurred since 2005. View attachment 514745

Climate Change: Global Temperature

Earth's surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the NOAA record in 1850. It may seem like a small change, but it's a tremendous increase in stored heat.

www.climate.gov

Then why was NASA just caught manipulating the data? To make 2020 look like the "hottest". Whats up with that?

NASA caught "adjusting" Global Temperature Graph - Electroverse

Kinda ghey

 

[Sunsettommy]

The stupidity of Old Rocks comes through vividly, the small minded man can't address a small time period, never read the same time frame of his own charts that are showing clear drops in temperature of the last few years.

I never disputed the warming trend from 1850 to 2021, thus your chart is irrelevant since you are not addressing the current cooling trend since 2014.

He has not once addressed the fact that HadCrut4 data does show a drop in temperature for the last 7 1/2 years, so does UAH. He tries to hide the current cooling by using charts from 1850 to 2021 to make it hard to see which is dishonest.

LINK

Grow up will ya!