P F Tinmore; georgephillip,
et al,
Wow, we could write a small encyclopedia about this, and the post-combat (Phase IV) of the second Gulf War (the invasion), and still miss things. So, I'll give you the thumbnail quantum version and you two can double team me and pick at it. I'll be happy to amplify any questions.
There is no question that President (and retired General of the Army) Eisenhower was correct. But he was preaching about "excess" and not a "pacifist nation;" or "taxing to extinction." He was concerned that the Captains of Industry would gain too much influence over a Congress that was all too susceptible to the dollar; and lacking the ability to control the monster.
(COMMENT)
There is still yet other factors that create wars. Clearly, the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict is not at all about profitability. In comparison to what the defense industry makes, that is hardly a drop in the bucket. And what Iran makes is, most definitely, in negative numbers. This is about raw power and influence.
Humanity, especially in the Middle East/Persian Gulf Region, has not developed to the enlightened stage of peaceful coexistence with other religious and culturally different societies. War is, whether we like it or not, an integral part of the human experience.
To change the influential factors of war, you have to generate a crop of leaders that have a different moral compass; one that points the way to peace, cooperation and development. As a species, we are not there yet.
Most Respectfully,
R
They have never told us why we really invaded Iraq. Everything they told us is a pack of lies. Follow the money.
Israel was created to be a safe haven for Jews but it is the most dangerous place on earth for Jews to live. Israel's occupation is very expensive for people around the world but there are a handful of people getting very rich. Again, follow the money.
(COMMENT)
Following the money usually works, but it is only a single piece to the equation. It is not a "cause." Clearly you can make some correlations, but as they say in science: Correlation does not imply Causation.
(I can correlation Sun Spots to some major events. But it doesn mean the Sun Spots caused them. The same it true with money.) This is a step-by-step logic.
(THE BACKDROP)
The US is (not theory) a political-military hegemony. We operate by the carrot and stick method; but we waive the stick very hard. At one time the military component had a saying:
Diplomacy was based on the presentation that any US suggestion was Option "A" --- and if you didn't do it our way, then you can go to option "B;" the military hard way.
There was a "Think Tank" called the Project for the New American Century (PNAC)
(with a number of very influential members) that stressed US leadership into the 21st Century through brute strength.
Some of the members included
(1997/8 time frame):
- Elliott Abrams, He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser in the administration of President George W. Bush.
- Gary Bauer, held several jobs in the Ronald Reagan administration, rising to the directorship of the White House's Office of Policy Development.
- William J. Bennett, served as Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy under President George H. W. Bush.
- Jeb Bush, the brother.
- Dick Cheney, VP and former SECDEF
- Paula Dobriansky, the Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs
- Aaron Friedberg, Cheney's Deputy Assistant for National-Security Affairs and Director of Policy Planning.
- Dan Quayle, former VP
- Zalmay Khalilzad, former Ambo to Afghanistan and Iraq
- I. Lewis (Scooter) Libby, former CoS, Cheney
Plus:
- Donald Rumsfeld SECDEF and Paul Wolfowitz Principle Deputy SECDEF
- R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence
- Richard Perle, Chairman of the Defense Policy Board, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy
- Richard L. Armitage, former Deputy Secretary of State
In January 1998, the PNAC wrote a letter to then President Clinton, and stated in part:
While POTUS did not act on this recommendation, the key to remember is that many of the PNAC members that signed or supported this recommendation were soon to come into positions of great power and influence.
Having said that, the PNAC was correct in part: "American policy toward Iraq is
not succeeding, and that we may soon face a threat in the Middle East more serious than any we have known since the end of the Cold War."
This is the seed that blossomed.
(The FOCUS of the DAY)
The grand plan was simple. The logic was to plant a huge stick right in the middle of the Middle East and Persian Gulf Region; equal distant from every aggressor and able to put a crimp in any offensive action that might develop a threat against oil interests or Israel. And Iraq fit the strategic bill. All they had to do was figure out a way to justify a regime change, and install a US friendly government that would be grateful and allow a couple of military bases.
Then fate intervened. The US was traumatized by 911, and itching for a fight. And the threat could all be traced back to the Middle East (Game-On). Cook the books, demonize Saddam, launch a Madison Avenue style campaign, and win public and Congressional support. Saddam Hussein became the greatest threat America has ever faced since Adolf Hitler; and the President gets to become the most famous wartime President history ever recorded since Lincoln and Roosevelt.
America could create a shadow force over any of the Arab Nations threatening Israel, lifting the pressure off them and changing the paradigm that might lead to peace in Palestine. At the same time, Iran would now be now well within striking distance. The bases were sufficient to support not only conventional strike capabilities, but asymmetric operations
(covert, clandestine or paramilitary) throughout the two regions and even into Yemen.
Desert Storm: 17 January 1991 – 28 February 1991(Ground) - 30 November 1995(AIR)
"WAR" is a result of diplomatic failures. As tumultuous the victory was in Gulf War I, at least part of the blame rest with the United States (my personal opinion). While it is true, that there was an oil dispute, and a $14B loan agreement, these were workable. But I think what made the invasion of Kuwait an option was the way in which Saddam Hussein interpreted the US position, as expressed by the on-scene Ambassador, April Glaspie, 25 July 1990. She essentially stated:
- "we have no opinion on Arab-Arab issues, such as your border disagreement with Kuwait."
It was eight days later that Iraq invaded Kuwait, and announced annexation.
(OPINION)
It was my opinion then, and it is my opinion now, that our ally, Saddam Hussein, thought that
(in political-ese) the US was giving Iraq a "green light" for military action. And we were, just not on the scale that Saddam Hussein was contemplating. As the Ambassador said: "I didn't think, and nobody else did, that the Iraqis were going to
take all of Kuwait." Clearly implying that we did expect him to take some of Kuwait; just the oil dispute areas; the al-Rumaila Oil Field 15-20 miles from the Kuwaiti border, inside Iraq.
(COMMENT)
On 3 March 1991: Iraq accepts the terms of a ceasefire Safwan Accords, and the UN Security Council Resolution 686 2 March 1991; and then the following month, the UNSC Resolution 687. It is in UNSC Resolution 687 that the first mention on WMD restrictions are made. This sets the stage for the subsequent struggle over WMD issues in Iraq.
The Project for the New American Century said:
In August of 2002, Defense Policy Board chairman and PNAC member Richard Perle heard a policy briefing from a think tank associated with the Rand Corporation. According to the Washington Post and The Nation, the final slide of this presentation described "Iraq as the tactical pivot, Saudi Arabia as the strategic pivot, and Egypt as the prize" in a war that would purportedly be about ridding the world of Saddam Hussein's weapons. Bush has deployed massive forces into the Mideast region, while simultaneously engaging American forces in the Philippines and playing nuclear chicken with North Korea. Somewhere in all this lurks at least one of the "major theater wars" desired by the September 2000 PNAC report.
Iraq is but the beginning, a pretense for a wider conflict. Donald Kagan, a central member of PNAC, sees America establishing permanent military bases in Iraq after the war. This is purportedly a measure to defend the peace in the Middle East, and to make sure the oil flows. The nations in that region, however, will see this for what it is: a jump-off point for American forces to invade any nation in that region they choose to. The American people, anxiously awaiting some sort of exit plan after America defeats Iraq, will see too late that no exit is planned.
SOURCE: http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle1665.htm
We're not truly sure what caused al-Qaeda (Osama bin Laden) to target the US in 1992, leading the the 1993 bombing. There were a number of factors in play. None of which involved Iraq. We are fairly confident that US force using Saudi facilities was a major sticking point with al-Qaeda.
Relative to Iraq, al-Qaeda wasn't an issue. While there were a couple of known international terrorist hiding out in Iraq, they were not al-Qaeda assets. What we called al-Qaeda in Iraq, was really the JTJ under Abu Massab al-Zaqarwi, a Jordanian terrorist. He wanted credit for his operation and was always being misidentified as AQI. So, in August of '04, he pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden (ObL) and AQ.
The bulls-eye, painted on Iraq was painted long before George Bush II and the The Committee for the Liberation of Iraq (CLI), which had many of the same members as the PNAC, was instrumental in lobbying for the Legislation of the same name.
At the time, other than the naval air, there was no real regional, land base strike capability prior to Gulf War I. The Saudi bases were off-limits. The Kuwaiti base had not been established. After Gulf War I, the Kuwaiti base
(Ali Al Salem Air Base) was too far south to cover tactical air all the way to the Occupied Territories, Lebanon or Syria, and still maintain any meaning time-on-target. However, there were 5 air bases west of Al Asad
(in Iraq, along the Jordanian-Syrian Border), that were very capable of being made into US Tactical Stations. Right in the middle of every predictable Middle East targets.
ObL was the apprentice engineer that helped his father's company (the bin Laden Group) refurbish and renovate the Grand Mosque in Mecca. It is believed then, that ObL heard the words of Juhayman al-Oteibi and became an inspired Muslim. He later came to believe that US Forces, although no where near Mecca, defiled the Holy Ground upon which the Grand Mosque was built.
But many key intelligence officials have since come to believe that when ObL approached the King, asking for support, money and weapons to defend Saudi sovereignty against a possible invasion from Iraq, and was turned down in favor of the US and Coalition --- that triggered the Jihad against America.
Within the Intelligence Community at the time, it was a minor debate.
ObL didn't care about Iraq at all. Saddam Hussein did not care for Osama bin Laden's leadership and did not reach out for al-Qaeda; there was virtually no connection of any significants between the two.
There is a connection between Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) Against Iraq Resolution of 2002, and the probable cause to believe in a connection between Iraq and Terrorism.
- supporting and harboring terrorist organizations;
- threat posed by the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by international terrorist organizations;
- employ those weapons to launch a surprise attack against the United States or its Armed Forces or provide them to international terrorists who would do so;
- Iraq's ongoing support for international terrorist groups combined with its development of weapons of mass destruction in direct violation;
- ... .... ..... Whereas, where as, and so forth, etc...
SEC. 3. AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES. Para "b" said:
(1) reliance by the United States on further diplomatic or other peaceful means alone either (A) will not adequately protect the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq or (B) is not likely to lead to enforcement of all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq; and
(2) acting pursuant to this joint resolution is consistent with the United States and other countries continuing to take the necessary actions against international terrorist and terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations, or persons who planned, authorized, committed or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001.
References:
Both the Rand and the PNAC are/were "Think Tanks." It is the conduit by which the influential membership of the "Think Tank" transmits ideas to the decision making level. In this case, the guys transmitting the finding, became the decision makers. That is how the ideas reach such a high level.
We didn't have forward operating bases offset Jihadists and pre-position offensive forces anywhere in the ME, in the fashion necessary we needed to maintain security. And that was a critical reason for looking at western desert bases in Iraq.
At the time of 9/11, we had not invaded Iraq. There was no "occupation" for ObL to fret over. The pre-war ratchet of sanctions meant nothing to ObL. He was a ethnic Yemeni and a devout Wahhabi Muslim, who had a thing for Islamic Holy sites. Rather than be worried about Baghdad, he was more concerned for Jerusalem, and the al-Aqsa Masjid which his great prophet revered.
If Osama bin Laden was upset about anything, it would have been the Battle of Tora Bora, the total destruction of the al-Qaeda's Main facilities in a series of mountain caves near the Pakistani border in Afghanistan; from December 12, 2001 to December 17, 2001.
Prior to the invasion, ObL issued The FATWA entitled "Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places" of 1996. He meant Mecca and Medina (Saudi Arabia).
The general call to Jihad came in 1998, two years later. It was called the "Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders," which dealt with Arab-Israeli conflict. The US became a secondary target through its interventionist Foreign Policy as ObL saw it.
References:
I hope I was able to clarify my commentary in this. I tried to simplify it as best I could. I'm sure there are shoddy spots that sound clear to me, but are not to you.
Most Respectfully,
R
...................................
In Remembrance:
General Norman Schwarzkopf (AKA: ""The Bear.""), US Army (Ret),
Commander, United States Central Command, Desert Storm & Coalition Forces,
22 August 1934 - 28 December, 2012
