CDZ The fate of Obamacare

[SingleVoyce]

Now that he has been elected, Trump seems to be wavering on his pledge to repeal and replace Obamacare. He now is saying that it can be modified somehow. He says that he wants to keep the requirement that insurers not be allowed to deny coverage because of pre-existing conditions and that young people be allowed to stay in their parents' coverage until they are 26 (or maybe some different age).

The requirement that insurers cover everyone was one of the key provisions of Obamacare and was acceptable to the insurance companies because of other provisions of Obamacare that guaranteed them a larger pool of healthy individuals. If this requirement is maintained but the individual mandate is removed, the insurance companies will be screaming.

What do you think is actually going to happen?

 

[SeaGal]

Only a guess...it will be carefully deconstructed. Which is tantamount to repeal. Some parts recycled. We should see tort reform. We should see portability. We might see greater choice for those who'd prefer basic, or catastrophic coverage and the ability to spend pre-tax cash on routine medical care. A possibility would be to open the same choice of plans to the general public that federal employees have instead of the failing exchanges. ACA could have been successful had it been crafted with careful and thoughtful incremental changes. ACA is a highly aggressive cancer with tendrils wrapped around and through our economic brainstem - it will take a steady hand on the scalpel. Only a guess.

 

[yiostheoy]

My prediction is that until the GOP gets 60 or more Senators, nothing will change on ACA.

And since the GOP currently only has 51 in a very narrow recent election victory by the skin of their teeth, that is not going to happen in our lifetimes.

Any bill with ACA changes attached to it will be filibustered.

 

[anotherlife]

The ACA gives an extra cash source to the insurance companies, that is like a tax based income, because Americans are now obligated to buy. So I think thevACA will remain forever. Nothing makes an insurer happier than telling its shareholders not the worry about premiums pricing out, because they can make it up on a quasi taxation basis.

 

[SingleVoyce]

My prediction is that until the GOP gets 60 or more Senators, nothing will change on ACA.

And since the GOP currently only has 51 in a very narrow recent election victory by the skin of their teeth, that is not going to happen in our lifetimes.

Any bill with ACA changes attached to it will be filibustered.

Trump and the Republicans in Congress are, I think, locked in to at least proposing some type of significant change since they've been promising repeal to their supporters since the ACA was first passed. Trump's backpedalling on his repeal and replace campaign promise will give the congressional Republicans some cover but they may still feel obligated to pass another motion repealing it and require Trump to veto it.

There are probably some changes which would also be acceptable to Democrats in Congress. I think that Republicans will try to initially target some of the taxes that were imposed to fund it. One attractive target may be the "Cadillac tax" that is scheduled to go into effect in 2020. I would also expect some changes to the employer mandate.

Trump attacked the individual mandate during his campaign but that is really the linchpin of funding for the insurance companies so I don't see how you can eliminate that without bringing the whole system to a halt. Actually, I suppose it would be possible for Trump to basically gut the individual mandate by eliminating the enforcement of it without any legislative action.