The economy is fucked. What is on the horizon?

[Trajan]

BTW the economy picked up in June.

uhmmm, so whats your guess on gdp q2 and , unemployment/jobs figures for june?

can you please sir explain- 'picked up'...?

Economic activity accelerated in June. I don't know what GDP will be.

ooooookkkkkkk come on T, like what? housing starts? retail numbers? manufacturing?

I just asked for a guess, I am not playing gotcha...

 

[william the wie]

Well apartment and SRO construction is getting big to account for tax and foreclosure sales. The last report I saw last night was six years of living free without a payment on the mortgage.

 

[Toro]

uhmmm, so whats your guess on gdp q2 and , unemployment/jobs figures for june?

can you please sir explain- 'picked up'...?

Economic activity accelerated in June. I don't know what GDP will be.

ooooookkkkkkk come on T, like what? housing starts? retail numbers? manufacturing?

I just asked for a guess, I am not playing gotcha...

Don't know exactly. But PMI today was much stronger than expected.

 

[Truthmatters]

Top U.S. CEOs remain upbeat, survey says - MarketWatch

What will you do if we recover faster than is good for the republican party?

 

[Wiseacre]

This is from a couple of days ago. My guess would be Q2 GDP around 2%, UE around 9, not a lot of change but at least we're not dealing with those massive killer tornados.


Durable Goods Orders Decline in June as Economic Activity Falters

The U.S. Commerce Department released the durable goods orders for the month of June, where the index showed that durable goods declined opposite to expectations, as this clearly indicates the recent weakness in economic activities in the world’s largest economy.

The durable goods orders declined in June by 1.0 percent, compared with the prior revised drop of 0.8% back in May and median estimates of a 1.0 percent rise, while durable goods that exclude transportations declined by 0.6%, compared with the prior revised rise of 1.2%, and median estimates of 0.4%.

The durable goods orders index is considered a gauge for demand in the United States economy, where the recent weakness in overall economic activity seems to have been reflected through lower demand levels, where activity in the manufacturing, industrial, services, and housing sectors have been showing signs of slowing down over the past couple of months.

The U.S. economy is still under huge pressure amid elevated unemployment, and tightened credit conditions, where both factors have been delaying so far a full recovery, as economic activity is still seeking some stabilization, since employers are still reluctant to add new workers, while bankers are also reluctant to financial both consumers and businesses.

The report is not significant on its own, but combined with the other economic reports that had been released over the past period; it gives us a better picture for the economic situation, where it’s rather clear that the economy is still weak, and this was further confirmed by the Fed’s Chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, who signaled last week that the outlook for the economy is “unusually uncertain.”

The durable goods report also showed that new orders that exclude defense declined by 0.7% the same drop reported in May, while capital goods declined by 2.3%, compared with the prior reported drop of 0.9%.

The report showed that nondefense aircrafts orders declined by 25.6%, while computers and electronics orders declined by 1.9%, machinery orders declined by 0.7%, while primary metals orders declined by 2.0%, meanwhile, electronic equipment orders increased by 3.7%, and fabricated metals orders increased by 1.2%.

Shipments also remained weak, where the durable goods orders report showed that shipments declined by 0.3% in June, the report though showed that inventories continued to increase in June after rising by 0.9%, which might be a good sign for the future, though unless this increase in inventories is accompanies by rising demand, it won’t make a difference, as the report showed that the inventory to shipments ration rose in June to 1.58 from 1.56, which is a sign of weakening demand.


http://www.ecpulse.com/en/topstory/2010/07/28/durable-goods-orders-june-decline/

 

[Truthmatters]

June 14, 2011, 10:31 a.m. EDT

Top U.S. CEOs remain upbeat, survey says
Most expect sales to increase; 51% plan to hire more workers

 

[Wiseacre]

Tell you what, I think the result of the debt ceiling negotiations might have some bearing on the economy if most people think a good deal was struck. Could also go the other way though if things get really acrimonious and nobody comes out of it satisfied.

 

[editec]

The economy is fucked. What is on the horizon?

Waht's next?

The average American.... sleeping on the wet spot.

 

[KissMy]

Bill Gross: US Worse Off Than Greece!

 

[Truthmatters]

Not raising the debt limit will kill the economy

 

[Liberty]

Not raising the debt limit will kill the economy

idiots like you kill the economy.

 

[Wiseacre]

Not raising the debt limit will kill the economy

"Kill" is a strong word, but I'd agree that cutting spending that much would bring on another bad recession or depression. Plus, we have several expenditures that must be met aside from the interest on the debt. We ain't that far from the edge now, and some people think we're still in one. Where we disagree is that I think raising taxes at all on anybody would not be a good thing either for the economy.

 

[Truthmatters]

Everytime the US needs to carry debt from then on the costs will be much greater because we will have proven we will default.


The country will NEVER be the same

 

[Liberty]

Everytime the US needs to carry debt from then on the costs will be much greater because we will have proven we will default.


The country will NEVER be the same

it would be better if we used sound fiscal policies. why do you hate america?

 

[Avorysuds]

boy you really want to se our country fail huh

Just as much as you did under Bush. And what's with this "boy" shit?

 

[Rozman]

There is only one of two things that can happen to the US economy...

There might be a third choice.... Spearheaded by the guy on MSNBC who has some kind of reaction in his pants whenever Obama gives a speech ( which is almost daily) the Obama will
get another Nobel prize for economics this time for saving the world from economic destruction.

 

[konkon]

The very public public versus private battle in the US (and other countries like in Greece) is potentially going to elevate the global financial crisis to a higher, but less predictable, level. Compromise will eventually come at every stage, but the decisions may be too little too late (especially too late). Well, too little will be an issue too.

There will be way too much grandstanding in congress from both or all sides. A lot of the problems have been reinforced by congress (over the years) and it is amazing to find that the system as it stands only allows congress to 'solve' the current and future economic problems. Turn on the TV and I bet it won't take long before some reporter is interviewing some congressman on the economy. The delays themselves will likely cause more economic problems.

I still believe that the US will not be as harmed as other nations if a default (in the future) occurs. It will be devastating for (nearly) all people, but other creditor nations will suffer the most. All countries will suffer of course, but there will be those that will (and will look to) benefit from such a default; your short sellers and those betting on inverse models/trades are some. So will some US banks (one in particular!). Maybe two if you consider the Federal Reserve.

Perhaps the biggest issue in the coming few years onwards will be the sheer fact that a reissuance of new debt (dressed-up to look like something else perhaps) will NO LONGER be a viable and meaningful option to pay for all of the layers of past and future debt obligations. The financial crisis of 2008 wasn't solved. It was washed-over with more (perhaps unpayable) debt. The next few rounds of this will not make any sense whatsoever. Nor does the Federal Reserve's actions of continuing to buy-up US debt over the coming years. This might mean that the US will never be in a position to challenge the Federal Reserve in any way as the Federal Reserve as a powerful and very influential institution would have diluted itself in more parts of the US economy than was intended. As for those that think that the Federal Reserve can easily be abolished; the answer is clearly NO.

Can order really come out of (a goal-posts-shifted, not-on-the-same-page and disorganized) congress? Well you're not going to get a long-term, sustainable and meaningful set of solutions from a system that lacks order and uniformity. Not blaming individuals or sides here. The system as it stands just won't allow for all the necessary and timely changes that need to occur.

One reason why we are unique is because we are able to reverse disorder (that naturally occurs in the universe) for a period of time. We take this for granted but they are perhaps the biggest sets of skills we possess and congress and co. can use, especially in this day and age. Without using these skills you may as well get my cat and all of her alley-cat friends to organize things for you.