Is the end of this market rally now on the immediate horizon? Yes, probabilities favor that being the case.

[Luckyone]

Once again, numbers specified were 8/1....RISK/REWARD....idiot.

Sigh, I can never make a blind-by-choice person see what is reality, if they don’t open theirs eyes

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Sigh, I can never make a blind-by-choice person see what is reality, if they don’t open theirs eyes

the DOW on January 31, 2017, was at 19884 and in January 31st, 2021 (when Biden took over) it was at 29984. That is a 34% rise in value.

OMG!

Why are you such a moron?

29984/19884 = 1.5079.

Call it a 50.8% increase. Not a 34% increase.

Moron!

Under Obama, his first term, the DOW went from 8000 to 13860 (a 43% rise)

8000 to 13860 is a 73.25% rise.

Moron.

under his 2nd term, the DOW went from 13860 to 19884 (a 31% rise).

13860 to 19884 is a 43.5% rise.

Stop lying about being a successful financial advisor. Moron!

DURR

 

[Luckyone]

My 4th mention (ORLY) reached the desired entry point today and it was at a better-than-expected entry point, meaning that my risk is smaller and my profit potential is better. I shorted ORLY at 101.02 and the stop loss point is at 102.56 and the objective is 84.71. I am risking $154 to make $1631 (per 100 shares), which is a 10-1 reward/risk ratio.

 

[Dekster]

There will be a giant but short-lived rally when the SCOTUS slaps down Trump's tariff powers. Their delay in coughing up an opinion tells me it will go against Trump but they have no idea yet about what to say about the money already collected.

 

[Luckyone]

My 3rd mention (CVX) reached the desired entry point today and it was at a better-than-expected entry point, meaning that my risk is smaller and my profit potential is better. I shorted CVX at 170.02 and the stop loss point is at 172.64 and the objective is 149.91. I am risking $262 to make $2012 (per 100 shares), which is a 7.7-1 reward/risk ratio.

 

[Hafar1014]

You truly have to do some good research, because you truly have not idea of what is happening.

Comparing the U.S. economy under Trump and Biden​

• GDP growth was modest but satisfactory under both presidents despite economic shocks
• Inflation surged under Biden, mainly due to inherited factors
• Public finances have worsened, with deficits rising under both administrations

Neither Biden nor Trump have been good for the economy but the chart below shows that Biden was a bit (not much) better than Trump. You also need to understand that Biden had to deal with something (the pandemic) that was not of his making or his control, which did affect his presidency. Nonetheless, if you check out this chart, his last 3 years (after the pandemic subsided) were slightly better than the first 3 years of Trump's administration where the pandemic had not yet happened. By the same token, in this chart you can compare the other presidents and you will see that they were all better than both Biden or Trump.

View attachment 1211024

Your chart misses the real difference. Bidens economy was 40% based on government spending borrowed printed money. Jobs were government funded. We have to pay for that it doesnt create wealth it creates debt and inflation.

Trumps economy is based on private sector wealth creating jobs that add to the nations wealth. The result is a growing economy based on real wealth. GDP is 5.4% after 3 quarters of growth.

Bidenomics is like living off your credit cared and only paying the interest.

 

[Hafar1014]

the DOW on January 31, 2017, was at 19884 and in January 31st, 2021 (when Biden took over) it was at 29984. That is a 34% rise in value.

OMG!

Why are you such a moron?

29984/19884 = 1.5079.

Call it a 50.8% increase. Not a 34% increase.

Moron!

Under Obama, his first term, the DOW went from 8000 to 13860 (a 43% rise)

8000 to 13860 is a 73.25% rise.

Moron.

under his 2nd term, the DOW went from 13860 to 19884 (a 31% rise).

13860 to 19884 is a 43.5% rise.

Stop lying about being a successful financial advisor. Moron!

DURR

Obamas economy was based like Bidens on debt based government spending. At the edn of Obamas second term GDP was dropping and we were heading toa recession. Quantitative easing means borrow and spend which drives up stocks but does nothing for the middle class.
Its not how high the dow is its what is driving it up. Debt and printed money or real wealth.
Trump reversed the Obama error and we had the nest economy in history until Covid. Then Biden came in a and di the same things and we cot 9.1% inflation and 5.00 a gallon gas.
Trump comes in cuts spending and regulations switches to fossil fuels and nuclear and inflation slows and GDP is 5.4%. Wages up taxes cut the middle class now has more money

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Quantitative easing means borrow and spend which drives up stocks but does nothing for the middle class.

Quantitative easing means the Fed is buying bonds. The Fed doesn't spend.

 

[Cassandro]

Quantitative easing means the Fed is buying bonds. The Fed doesn't spend.

Distinction without a difference or just word mincing?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Distinction without a difference or just word mincing?

The Fed could buy all the bonds; the Feds could sell all their bonds.
Neither would make a difference in what the congress and president decide to spend.

 

[San Souci]

Most expect a strong market this year as the fundamental are very good. Tax cuts reliable low cost energy, regulation cuts, increasing demand for AI and data centers, increases in manufacturing investment, America is poised for the best ecomny in history

Absolutely. Wait till people see their TAX returns.

 

[Mac1958]

Fundamentally and chart-wise, the end of this rally is on the immediate horizon, meaning that it is likely that selling interest will begin to be seen by the end of this week.

I was an advisor for 23+ years before I retired, and I've never seen anything like this. While my accounts have had an amazing few months, this is the first time I've ever been a little worried seeing all the green. Metals and currencies (I'm in futures) have been incredible.

We have multiple different things driving asset (stocks & metals) prices higher: A fiscal policy and deficit/debt problem that is clearly out of control and pushing people to gold and foreign currencies, the AI buildout that's driving people to metals (gold, silver, copper, platinum), a crashing dollar due to policy and Trump's destructive international behaviors, and FOMO, the fear of missing out. A perfect storm.

Under normal circumstances, we would have had a perfectly normal and healthy correction in the market by now. But we're in purely uncharted territory. If we lose the dollar (and our former friends are working on that), metals and FOREX are going to keep exploding.

This is very precarious situation.

Just make sure you have a clear exit strategy (like shorts, stops and trailing stops) for anything you're doing.

 

[Mac1958]

Fundamentally and chart-wise, the end of this rally is on the immediate horizon, meaning that it is likely that selling interest will begin to be seen by the end of this week.

This is an EXTREMELY good look at what could be happening. DON'T look at it as a prediction. It's just a possible explanation for what we're seeing, from a historical perspective.

 

[Hafar1014]

Absolutely. Wait till people see their TAX returns.

And pay checks as withholding will be cut

 

[Correll]

Fundamentally and chart-wise, the end of this rally is on the immediate horizon, meaning that it is likely that selling interest will begin to be seen by the end of this week.

The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday (neither raise nor lower them) and given that is what is expected, it is not likely to give any ammunition to the bulls if that happens. The weekly closes are important this week, given that if no new all-time highs are made in either the DOW or the SPX after the last 2 weeks of red occurring, the bears will get new ammunition with which to push downward. And then also on Friday, the monthly closes occur and if they are in the lower half of the monthly trading ranges (DOW below 47843, SPX below 6888, NASDAQ below 25412 and the RUT below 2608), it will strongly suggest that February will be a red month (as the seasonal tendency is to be). It is also important to note that the DOW has generated 9 green months in a row and has increased in value 18% during that time, meaning that a correction to the rally is way overdue and highly likely to begin to happen in February. <p>

Adding to all of this, the US economy is showing multiple, distinct signs of cooling down and slowing from the robust, rapid growth experienced in mid-2025, according to data from late 2025 and early 2026. While a recession is not currently in effect, key indicators suggest a "low-hire, low-fire" environment is putting pressure on both consumers and businesses. Such a tangible fundamental scenario, does suggest that selling interest will rise beginning this week.

And now we enter the next round of lefties trying to talk down teh economy.

 

[Correll]

My 4th mention (ORLY) reached the desired entry point today and it was at a better-than-expected entry point, meaning that my risk is smaller and my profit potential is better. I shorted ORLY at 101.02 and the stop loss point is at 102.56 and the objective is 84.71. I am risking $154 to make $1631 (per 100 shares), which is a 10-1 reward/risk ratio.

you know, i admit there were a few times that my partisan zeal led me to kind of hope that a recession would hit before an election, to improve my side's chances.


But I never went the next step of actively trying to talk down the economy, to help, in a small way, to make it happen.

That's a... ... important line I never crossed.

Because to ME, the goal is good results for the AMERICAN PEOPLE, not my ideological side.

Ideology, to ME, is a TOOL, a means to an end. And forgetting that, is an important step to leaving Patriot behind and embracing ZEALOT.

Your goal is not the well being of your nation. It is to advance your political agenda.

 

[Luckyone]

My 3rd mention (CVX) reached the desired entry point today and it was at a better-than-expected entry point, meaning that my risk is smaller and my profit potential is better. I shorted CVX at 170.02 and the stop loss point is at 172.64 and the objective is 149.91. I am risking $262 to make $2012 (per 100 shares), which is a 7.7-1 reward/risk ratio.

I got stopped out of CVX at 172.64. Loss on the trade of $261 per 100 shares.

I added shares in ORLY at 101.83. Averaged short at 101.425 (2 mentions).

It was not surprising that I got stopped out of CVX given that Oil is up $3 due to the threats that Trump is giving to Iran. Oil has broken the established resistance at 62.54 and is trading at 66.00 and has open air above to the $70 level.

I added shorts to ORLY given that the other sell mentions (AXP and AKAM), especially AXP have dropped and I will not get a chance to short it (them).

 

[Luckyone]

Obamas economy was based like Bidens on debt based government spending. At the edn of Obamas second term GDP was dropping and we were heading toa recession. Quantitative easing means borrow and spend which drives up stocks but does nothing for the middle class.
Its not how high the dow is its what is driving it up. Debt and printed money or real wealth.
Trump reversed the Obama error and we had the nest economy in history until Covid. Then Biden came in a and di the same things and we cot 9.1% inflation and 5.00 a gallon gas.
Trump comes in cuts spending and regulations switches to fossil fuels and nuclear and inflation slows and GDP is 5.4%. Wages up taxes cut the middle class now has more money

But, but, but Trump is cutting the debt, right?

Or is he?

National Debt Hits $38.40 Trillion, Increased $2.23 Trillion This Past Year, $6.12 Billion Per Day​

December, 2025

Once again, let me state what I have said before. What Trump has stated that he wants to accomplish is a good thing. Two problems exist

1) Trump is a con artist and liar, meaning that what he says is not always what he actually wants to do.
2) More importantly, Trump is INCOMPETENT and as such, is likely to fail at anything he sets out to do!!!

 

[Hafar1014]

But, but, but Trump is cutting the debt, right?

Or is he?

National Debt Hits $38.40 Trillion, Increased $2.23 Trillion This Past Year, $6.12 Billion Per Day​

December, 2025

Once again, let me state what I have said before. What Trump has stated that he wants to accomplish is a good thing. Two problems exist

1) Trump is a con artist and liar, meaning that what he says is not always what he actually wants to do.
2) More importantly, Trump is INCOMPETENT and as such, is likely to fail at anything he sets out to do!!!

In one year? Trump has set the stage to cut the debt this is still Bidens disaster in many ways. Democrats fight spending cuts every step of the way because thats their source of power. Can you say Minnesota fraud scandal

 

[Luckyone]

In one year? Trump has set the stage to cut the debt this is still Bidens disaster in many ways. Democrats fight spending cuts every step of the way because thats their source of power. Can you say Minnesota fraud scandal

"set the stage"?

So, what has actually happened (6.12 Billion increase per day on the national debt) is okay, given that it has set the stage (but not guaranteed, right) that it will cut in the future, right?

One question "why didn't he not spend so much money himself at the beginning of his term, BEFORE the national debt increased by 2.23 Trillion and continues to increase by 6.12 Billion per day for now?

Is making things worse the formula for success?