JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,798
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This thing is pretty useful for seeing how Trump, if the polls hold up with him at 50% now in the GOP, can mathematically lock everything up by end of March, i.e. get so close that with even trivial gains he will get the nomination.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...an-delegate-calculator-how-trump-can-win.html
Set the sliders to the recent poll with Trump at 49%, Rubio at 16%, Cruz at 15%, Carson at 10% and Kasich at 10% and let him have the undecideds too.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/02/29/rel4a.-.2016.primaries.pdf
This model puts Trump so far ahead by March 23rd he is less than one quarter of the delegates he needs to get the nomination. And since the following states will have a lot of winner take all states, he is unlikely to not gain enough candidates at that point.
In the accompanying article they have this fantasy scenario of Trump losing all the free Cruz support once Cruz drops out, which is just a pipe dream. They are dependent on Cruz dropping from the race after March 3rd and Rubio then averaging more than 50% of the vote there on out. If he does this only by March 15, he still loses to Trump. A nice laugh, for sure.
By end of March, we will have Trump as the obvious nominee, but will the GOP establishment accept him as the nominee? Already so many establishment people have come out and endorsed Trump, would the GOP Establishment be destroying the GOP if they pulled some kind of Paul Ryan chairman trick, "I hear a motion to amend the rules and unbind all delegates, is there a second? All in favor? In the opinion of the chair, the ayes have it."
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...an-delegate-calculator-how-trump-can-win.html
Set the sliders to the recent poll with Trump at 49%, Rubio at 16%, Cruz at 15%, Carson at 10% and Kasich at 10% and let him have the undecideds too.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/02/29/rel4a.-.2016.primaries.pdf
This model puts Trump so far ahead by March 23rd he is less than one quarter of the delegates he needs to get the nomination. And since the following states will have a lot of winner take all states, he is unlikely to not gain enough candidates at that point.
In the accompanying article they have this fantasy scenario of Trump losing all the free Cruz support once Cruz drops out, which is just a pipe dream. They are dependent on Cruz dropping from the race after March 3rd and Rubio then averaging more than 50% of the vote there on out. If he does this only by March 15, he still loses to Trump. A nice laugh, for sure.
By end of March, we will have Trump as the obvious nominee, but will the GOP establishment accept him as the nominee? Already so many establishment people have come out and endorsed Trump, would the GOP Establishment be destroying the GOP if they pulled some kind of Paul Ryan chairman trick, "I hear a motion to amend the rules and unbind all delegates, is there a second? All in favor? In the opinion of the chair, the ayes have it."
