Tell me what I'm missing here H1N12009 Vs Corona2019

[WTH_Progs?]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

This is a piece off a 2011 study of H1N1-2009. What am I missing?

Background
While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings
A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

 

[jwoodie]

These mortality rates are of those who were already seriously ill with Covid-19 and/or other life threatening conditions.

 

[BrokeLoser]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

This is a piece off a 2011 study of H1N1-2009. What am I missing?

Background
While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings
A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

H1N1 = Booger President
Covid-19 = White President
THE END

 

[Pogo]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

This is a piece off a 2011 study of H1N1-2009. What am I missing?

Background
While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings
A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

H1N1 = Booger President
Covid-19 = White President
THE END

See, this shit is where we need the "Informative" button.

But hey, thanks for self-identifying. Again.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

The only logical simple explanation would be the powers in 2009 understood the economy would be unable to sustain what we're seeing today. That's only on the assumption O'bummer and the like had the least bit of good intentions and/or brains. Yeah, that's probably not it.

The morality rates per the OP are not an equal comparison, because it only accounts for hospitalizations. Still interesting, IMO.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks.

In reality, it's far less than that since we know there are thousands if not millions of people walking around untested who have it.

 

[Pogo]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

Don't know what you're looking at. Here's the current data sorted by most cases per million, up to the USA. I deleted rows for smaller territories. What in this data would tell me "As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model"?????

If you have Excel I can teach you how to use it

Territory	….	Cases	….	Deaths	….	Recovered	….	Number of cases per 1 million population	….	Mortality Rate	….	Recovery Rate
Switzerland	….	13,377	….	242	….	1,530	….	1,546	….	1.81%	….	11.44%
Spain	….	72,248	….	5,812	….	12,285	….	1,545	….	8.04%	….	17.00%
Italy	….	86,498	….	9,134	….	10,950	….	1,431	….	10.56%	….	12.66%
Austria	….	8,030	….	68	….	225	….	892	….	0.85%	….	2.80%
Belgium	….	9,134	….	353	….	1,063	….	788	….	3.86%	….	11.64%
Norway	….	3,973	….	20	….	7	….	733	….	0.50%	….	0.18%
Germany	….	53,340	….	399	….	6,658	….	637	….	0.75%	….	12.48%
Netherlands	….	9,762	….	639	….	3	….	570	….	6.55%	….	0.03%
Portugal	….	5,170	….	100	….	43	….	507	….	1.93%	….	0.83%
France	….	32,964	….	1,995	….	5,700	….	505	….	6.05%	….	17.29%
Estonia	….	645	….	1	….	20	….	486	….	0.16%	….	3.10%
Ireland	….	2,121	….	22	….	5	….	430	….	1.04%	….	0.24%
Iran	….	35,408	….	2,517	….	11,679	….	422	….	7.11%	….	32.98%
Israel	….	3,460	….	12	….	89	….	400	….	0.35%	….	2.57%
Denmark	….	2,201	….	65	….	1	….	380	….	2.95%	….	0.05%
USA	….	106,258	….	1,751	….	2,538	….	321	….	1.65%	….	2.39%

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks.

In reality, it's far less than that since we know there are thousands if not millions of people walking around untested who have it.

The same thing was true of H1N1 and the normal flu yet nobody every feels the need to point those out...weird.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

But..........we're nowhere near italys model.

 

[colfax_m]

The only logical simple explanation would be the powers in 2009 understood the economy would be unable to sustain what we're seeing today. That's only on the assumption O'bummer and the like had the least bit of good intentions and/or brains. Yeah, that's probably not it.

The morality rates per the OP are not an equal comparison, because it only accounts for hospitalizations. Still interesting, IMO.

Overall mortality rates for H1N1 were quite low. Like 0.05% or so. Many times lower best case scenario for COVID 19.
No conspiracy. No powers that be making back room decisions about the economy.

 

[Meister]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

Don't know what you're looking at. Here's the current data sorted by most cases per million, up to the USA. I deleted rows for smaller territories. What in this data would tell me "As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model"?????

If you have Excel I can teach you how to use it

Territory	….	Cases	….	Deaths	….	Recovered	….	Number of cases per 1 million population	….	Mortality Rate	….	Recovery Rate
Switzerland	….	13,377	….	242	….	1,530	….	1,546	….	1.81%	….	11.44%
Spain	….	72,248	….	5,812	….	12,285	….	1,545	….	8.04%	….	17.00%
Italy	….	86,498	….	9,134	….	10,950	….	1,431	….	10.56%	….	12.66%
Austria	….	8,030	….	68	….	225	….	892	….	0.85%	….	2.80%
Belgium	….	9,134	….	353	….	1,063	….	788	….	3.86%	….	11.64%
Norway	….	3,973	….	20	….	7	….	733	….	0.50%	….	0.18%
Germany	….	53,340	….	399	….	6,658	….	637	….	0.75%	….	12.48%
Netherlands	….	9,762	….	639	….	3	….	570	….	6.55%	….	0.03%
Portugal	….	5,170	….	100	….	43	….	507	….	1.93%	….	0.83%
France	….	32,964	….	1,995	….	5,700	….	505	….	6.05%	….	17.29%
Estonia	….	645	….	1	….	20	….	486	….	0.16%	….	3.10%
Ireland	….	2,121	….	22	….	5	….	430	….	1.04%	….	0.24%
Iran	….	35,408	….	2,517	….	11,679	….	422	….	7.11%	….	32.98%
Israel	….	3,460	….	12	….	89	….	400	….	0.35%	….	2.57%
Denmark	….	2,201	….	65	….	1	….	380	….	2.95%	….	0.05%
USA	….	106,258	….	1,751	….	2,538	….	321	….	1.65%	….	2.39%

Pogo uses his numbers to paint a worse possible scenario. Kinda like, if you haven't recovered, you're going to die scenario.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

Don't know what you're looking at. Here's the current data sorted by most cases per million, up to the USA. I deleted rows for smaller territories. What in this data would tell me "As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model"?????

If you have Excel I can teach you how to use it

Territory	….	Cases	….	Deaths	….	Recovered	….	Number of cases per 1 million population	….	Mortality Rate	….	Recovery Rate
Switzerland	….	13,377	….	242	….	1,530	….	1,546	….	1.81%	….	11.44%
Spain	….	72,248	….	5,812	….	12,285	….	1,545	….	8.04%	….	17.00%
Italy	….	86,498	….	9,134	….	10,950	….	1,431	….	10.56%	….	12.66%
Austria	….	8,030	….	68	….	225	….	892	….	0.85%	….	2.80%
Belgium	….	9,134	….	353	….	1,063	….	788	….	3.86%	….	11.64%
Norway	….	3,973	….	20	….	7	….	733	….	0.50%	….	0.18%
Germany	….	53,340	….	399	….	6,658	….	637	….	0.75%	….	12.48%
Netherlands	….	9,762	….	639	….	3	….	570	….	6.55%	….	0.03%
Portugal	….	5,170	….	100	….	43	….	507	….	1.93%	….	0.83%
France	….	32,964	….	1,995	….	5,700	….	505	….	6.05%	….	17.29%
Estonia	….	645	….	1	….	20	….	486	….	0.16%	….	3.10%
Ireland	….	2,121	….	22	….	5	….	430	….	1.04%	….	0.24%
Iran	….	35,408	….	2,517	….	11,679	….	422	….	7.11%	….	32.98%
Israel	….	3,460	….	12	….	89	….	400	….	0.35%	….	2.57%
Denmark	….	2,201	….	65	….	1	….	380	….	2.95%	….	0.05%
USA	….	106,258	….	1,751	….	2,538	….	321	….	1.65%	….	2.39%

Pogo uses his numbers to paint a worse possible scenario. Kinda like, if you haven't recovered, you're going to die scenario.

They need to make things seem worse than they really are or else they become depressed.

 

[Norman]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

This is a piece off a 2011 study of H1N1-2009. What am I missing?

Background
While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings
A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

H1N1 had a vaccine, and does not spread as easily.

The amount of people with the virus can easily grow beyond any capacity. At that point millions will likely die. Further, Corona may be a bio-weapon that can reinfect people over and over again.

There are reasons to err on the side of caution.

 

[colfax_m]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

Don't know what you're looking at. Here's the current data sorted by most cases per million, up to the USA. I deleted rows for smaller territories. What in this data would tell me "As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model"?????

If you have Excel I can teach you how to use it

Territory	….	Cases	….	Deaths	….	Recovered	….	Number of cases per 1 million population	….	Mortality Rate	….	Recovery Rate
Switzerland	….	13,377	….	242	….	1,530	….	1,546	….	1.81%	….	11.44%
Spain	….	72,248	….	5,812	….	12,285	….	1,545	….	8.04%	….	17.00%
Italy	….	86,498	….	9,134	….	10,950	….	1,431	….	10.56%	….	12.66%
Austria	….	8,030	….	68	….	225	….	892	….	0.85%	….	2.80%
Belgium	….	9,134	….	353	….	1,063	….	788	….	3.86%	….	11.64%
Norway	….	3,973	….	20	….	7	….	733	….	0.50%	….	0.18%
Germany	….	53,340	….	399	….	6,658	….	637	….	0.75%	….	12.48%
Netherlands	….	9,762	….	639	….	3	….	570	….	6.55%	….	0.03%
Portugal	….	5,170	….	100	….	43	….	507	….	1.93%	….	0.83%
France	….	32,964	….	1,995	….	5,700	….	505	….	6.05%	….	17.29%
Estonia	….	645	….	1	….	20	….	486	….	0.16%	….	3.10%
Ireland	….	2,121	….	22	….	5	….	430	….	1.04%	….	0.24%
Iran	….	35,408	….	2,517	….	11,679	….	422	….	7.11%	….	32.98%
Israel	….	3,460	….	12	….	89	….	400	….	0.35%	….	2.57%
Denmark	….	2,201	….	65	….	1	….	380	….	2.95%	….	0.05%
USA	….	106,258	….	1,751	….	2,538	….	321	….	1.65%	….	2.39%

Pogo uses his numbers to paint a worse possible scenario. Kinda like, if you haven't recovered, you're going to die scenario.

Similarly, id caution people from taking the number of deaths and dividing by the number of cases to come up with a mortality rate. That number would include current cases, which has people who may or many not survive.

It would be best if you divided deaths by recovered cases, but data is not very complete at this time.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

Don't know what you're looking at. Here's the current data sorted by most cases per million, up to the USA. I deleted rows for smaller territories. What in this data would tell me "As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model"?????

If you have Excel I can teach you how to use it

Territory	….	Cases	….	Deaths	….	Recovered	….	Number of cases per 1 million population	….	Mortality Rate	….	Recovery Rate
Switzerland	….	13,377	….	242	….	1,530	….	1,546	….	1.81%	….	11.44%
Spain	….	72,248	….	5,812	….	12,285	….	1,545	….	8.04%	….	17.00%
Italy	….	86,498	….	9,134	….	10,950	….	1,431	….	10.56%	….	12.66%
Austria	….	8,030	….	68	….	225	….	892	….	0.85%	….	2.80%
Belgium	….	9,134	….	353	….	1,063	….	788	….	3.86%	….	11.64%
Norway	….	3,973	….	20	….	7	….	733	….	0.50%	….	0.18%
Germany	….	53,340	….	399	….	6,658	….	637	….	0.75%	….	12.48%
Netherlands	….	9,762	….	639	….	3	….	570	….	6.55%	….	0.03%
Portugal	….	5,170	….	100	….	43	….	507	….	1.93%	….	0.83%
France	….	32,964	….	1,995	….	5,700	….	505	….	6.05%	….	17.29%
Estonia	….	645	….	1	….	20	….	486	….	0.16%	….	3.10%
Ireland	….	2,121	….	22	….	5	….	430	….	1.04%	….	0.24%
Iran	….	35,408	….	2,517	….	11,679	….	422	….	7.11%	….	32.98%
Israel	….	3,460	….	12	….	89	….	400	….	0.35%	….	2.57%
Denmark	….	2,201	….	65	….	1	….	380	….	2.95%	….	0.05%
USA	….	106,258	….	1,751	….	2,538	….	321	….	1.65%	….	2.39%

Pogo uses his numbers to paint a worse possible scenario. Kinda like, if you haven't recovered, you're going to die scenario.

Italy's model is AWESOME. You either die or recover, very quickly Them Italians don't fuck around.

 

[Dragonlady]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

This is a piece off a 2011 study of H1N1-2009. What am I missing?

Background
While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings
A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

The American mortality rates appear to be lower because you're at an earlier point in the outbreak. It generally takes about 2 to 3 weeks after the onset of symptons, to die. Two weeks ago, there were fewer than 20,000 cases in the USA. Of the more than 115,000 cases, fewer than 4000 have recovered. There are now 1700 deaths. It is WAY too early in this outbreak to start discussing the American mortality rate.

Given the millions of uninsured, and the general lack of resources, or planning. The USA looks to be headed to the highest rate of death in the world. People aren't even getting tested in the US unless they're already seriously ill. This doesn't bode well for their outcomes.

 

[Pogo]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

Don't know what you're looking at. Here's the current data sorted by most cases per million, up to the USA. I deleted rows for smaller territories. What in this data would tell me "As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model"?????

If you have Excel I can teach you how to use it

Territory	….	Cases	….	Deaths	….	Recovered	….	Number of cases per 1 million population	….	Mortality Rate	….	Recovery Rate
Switzerland	….	13,377	….	242	….	1,530	….	1,546	….	1.81%	….	11.44%
Spain	….	72,248	….	5,812	….	12,285	….	1,545	….	8.04%	….	17.00%
Italy	….	86,498	….	9,134	….	10,950	….	1,431	….	10.56%	….	12.66%
Austria	….	8,030	….	68	….	225	….	892	….	0.85%	….	2.80%
Belgium	….	9,134	….	353	….	1,063	….	788	….	3.86%	….	11.64%
Norway	….	3,973	….	20	….	7	….	733	….	0.50%	….	0.18%
Germany	….	53,340	….	399	….	6,658	….	637	….	0.75%	….	12.48%
Netherlands	….	9,762	….	639	….	3	….	570	….	6.55%	….	0.03%
Portugal	….	5,170	….	100	….	43	….	507	….	1.93%	….	0.83%
France	….	32,964	….	1,995	….	5,700	….	505	….	6.05%	….	17.29%
Estonia	….	645	….	1	….	20	….	486	….	0.16%	….	3.10%
Ireland	….	2,121	….	22	….	5	….	430	….	1.04%	….	0.24%
Iran	….	35,408	….	2,517	….	11,679	….	422	….	7.11%	….	32.98%
Israel	….	3,460	….	12	….	89	….	400	….	0.35%	….	2.57%
Denmark	….	2,201	….	65	….	1	….	380	….	2.95%	….	0.05%
USA	….	106,258	….	1,751	….	2,538	….	321	….	1.65%	….	2.39%

Classic fallacy. Change the argument then claim victory. All hail Danth.

The quoted line refers to both the proportion of dead/recovered AND to the rate of infection spread. By implication it also refers to the similar way that both countries' leadership tried to play down the import of that contagion.

***NONE*** of that has anything to do with "cases per million" so basically I said "look at these apples" and you went "whaddabout these rocks".

 

[Pogo]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

This is a piece off a 2011 study of H1N1-2009. What am I missing?

Background
While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings
A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

The American mortality rates appear to be lower because you're at an earlier point in the outbreak. It generally takes about 2 to 3 weeks after the onset of symptons, to die. Two weeks ago, there were fewer than 20,000 cases in the USA. Of the more than 115,000 cases, fewer than 4000 have recovered. There are now 1700 deaths. It is WAY too early in this outbreak to start discussing the American mortality rate.

Given the millions of uninsured, and the general lack of resources, or planning. The USA looks to be headed to the highest rate of death in the world. People aren't even getting tested in the US unless they're already seriously ill. This doesn't bode well for their outcomes.

Exactly, that's also why our number recovered has only two days ago finally outpaced number of deaths. The proportion is meaningless until it has TIME to settle, as it takes considerably longer to recover and clear oneself, than it does to die from it.

 

[Pogo]

I'm in NO WAY suggesting people should treat this differently than what we're told. It's too early.

For comparison, currently Corona19 has a mortality rate of 4.61% world wide, however, the mortality rate in the USA is 1.63%. So much for our healthcare sucks. I only checked Switzerland, which is a personal PROG-favorite nationalized medicine. They come in a 1.81%. Bet your ass most nationalized healthcare systems are higher than the USA, same with the rate of people affected - but that's another story.

OK two things on this straw-filled premise.

Number one, on the numbers, we have 4,269 cases which had an outcome, either Recovered or Died. Of those, 1731 were deaths. I'm prohibited from posting what that percentage is but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 1.81. Number two, as far as nationalized health systems, check out Germany, the first country to do it, in the 19th century.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
World	622,490	+26,178	28,808	+1,467	137,373	456,309	24,016	79.9	3.7	Jan 10
USA	105,778	+1,652	1,731	+35	2,538	101,509	2,494	320	5	Jan 20
Italy	86,498		9,134		10,950	66,414	3,732	1,431	151	Jan 29
China	81,394	+54	3,295	+3	74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10
Spain	72,248	+6,529	5,812	+674	12,285	54,151	4,165	1,545	124	Jan 30
Germany	53,340	+2,469	399	+48	6,658	46,283	1,581	637	5	Jan 26

As you can see we're much closer to Italy's model --- not because of who has what health care system while you spin your Ronald Reagan booga-booga record from 1962, but simply because they took a lax attitude when they were first hit by it.

So as far as "tell you what you're missing", there are a couple of Biglys.

But..........we're nowhere near italys model.

We're all too close in terms of how we both approached it.