Taiwan.....an enigma

[22lcidw]

Perhaps we do a deal like what was done with Hong Kong with England. An agreement that Taiwan goes to China after a period of years or decades. The time used by the west to move our technologies to safer environs.

 

[scruffy]

I think China may have surpassed America already.....

China has a lot of people, a lot of resources, and a lot of money.

And a chip on their shoulders.

Which makes them very dangerous in today's world.

They just don't do a lot of bragging because they're too smart to do that.

They brag every time they threaten a Filipino fishing vessel, which is just about every day now.

China is unquestionably an expansionist bully. They're trying to control international waters and the territorial waters of other nations. They thumb their nose at the World Court who says "disputed" territory doesn't belong to them.

China is very dangerous right now. Just about every other Asian nation is watching them with great concern.

 

[konradv]

Founded by the Chinese but now separatist the Taiwanese face a true paradox of future identity.
At one time I thought it was inevitable that Taiwan would simply be reabsorbed into the Chinese mainland. Now I'm not so sure. The flavor of freedom has broken loose on the Taiwanese people and they have the example of Hong Kong to see what the CCP thinks of free choice.

Now being bolstered by Western military aid Taiwan will be a tough nut to crack even for an up-and-coming superpower like China.

Aside from the fact that the Chinese population is roughly 60 times greater than the Taiwanese population.... China has made a miraculous leap forward in military might over the past decade.
Even the United States would have to think twice about engaging them directly. However Taiwan is an island.... And at this point well defended. Would China be willing to pay the heavy price it would most certainly cost to take it by force?

This isn't too different from when the United States declared its independence from England. The one big difference being that this Goliath is a whole hell of a lot bigger than the English Goliath was to the colonials....

If China decided to use it's rather impressive naval military might to blockade Taiwan completely...
I am at a loss to say how exactly anyone could do anything about it.

Enter stage left Japan and the United States and maybe Australia and the Philippines and you might have a strong argument for breaking such a blockade. Would that start world war 3?

I don't know.

The Chinese military is mostly show and no go. They don’t really have the navy to launch an amphibious invasion, especially if Taiwan’s usual allies back it up.

 

[scruffy]

Perhaps we do a deal like what was done with Hong Kong with England. An agreement that Taiwan goes to China after a period of years or decades. The time used by the west to move our technologies to safer environs.

England should never have been in China in the first place.

 

[scruffy]

If China decided to use it's rather impressive naval military might to blockade Taiwan completely...
I am at a loss to say how exactly anyone could do anything about it.

You should read about the First Island Chain. Why it exists, is to contain China. Without it, a big part of southeast Asia would be defenseless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/world/asia/japan-china-island-yonaguni.html

 

[scruffy]

Ultimately, unless the West turns their back on the Communist economy of China as all strong presidents in the past have (prior to Clinton), the West will lose to China in due time.

Nixon?

 

[shockedcanadian]

Nixon?

He was a fool and Kissenger was hardly much betterbetter.

 

[konradv]

Perhaps we do a deal like what was done with Hong Kong with England. An agreement that Taiwan goes to China after a period of years or decades. The time used by the west to move our technologies to safer environs.

Why would Taiwan allow us to deal away their freedom?

 

[JoeB131]

If China decided to use it's rather impressive naval military might to blockade Taiwan completely...
I am at a loss to say how exactly anyone could do anything about it.

Enter stage left Japan and the United States and maybe Australia and the Philippines and you might have a strong argument for breaking such a blockade. Would that start world war 3?

I don't know.

The problem here is the ignorance of the West.

For China, the key issue here is national sovereignty. While we moan about Tibet or Taiwan or the Uyghurs, China sees these issues as encroachments of their national sovereignty. And given China's history during what it calls the "Century of Humiliation" (百年国耻), which started with the First Opium War and ended with the founding of the People's Republic, it's a sore subject.

Taiwan exists because Japan stole Formosa from them in the First Sino-Japanese War, and the Nationalists set up camp there after they were defeated in the Civil War. China sees this as an intrusion on their national pride.

I also don't think China will merely blockade Taiwan. Blockades take months to be effective. If they pull the bandage off, they will go full invasion, which will either succeed in a couple of weeks or fail miserably.

 

[JoeB131]

Actually, it's way different.
Taiwan is more like Napoleon and Corsica than a rebel colony.
An exile island for a long-defeated, long-dead generalissimo.
Even though Chiang was a corrupt prick, he was nothing compared to that absolute demon, Mao.

Yet today, the Mainland still reveres Mao, and Taiwan treats Chiang as kind of an embarrassment.

 

[Gabe Lackmann]

Yet today, the Mainland still reveres Mao, and Taiwan treats Chiang as kind of an embarrassment.

ANYONE who reveres Mao is brainwashed or a sociopath.
We have no excuse for the former in the west.

 

[JoeB131]

Snidely Whiplash still thinks there's a Chinese hiding under his bed.

If the West loses Taiwan it would create the potential of a global depression unmatched in history.

Not really. Taiwan represents less than 1% of world GDP.

This needs to be Americas #1 focus from a military standpoint. Prevent the Communists from taking a free nation and the pipeline of advanced chips. Worse, it would signal to the world that thanks to the greed of Western corporations and their dumb leadership, China has surpassed America as the sole super power.

And? Frankly, as a superpower, China isn't going around invading countries for their oil or blowing up fishing boats in the Caribbean.

I think the last thing you should say to a dead serviceman's parents is, "Johnny died for the free flow of Microchips!"

"Thank God. he always loved his Playstation!"

Thus, it must not be allowed. At all costs. I just hope the West has the best intelligence agents on board. They must be patriotic and of sharp mind. Not like the manner in which some countries hire their "best"...

Ultimately, unless the West turns their back on the Communist economy of China as all strong presidents in the past have (prior to Clinton), the West will lose to China in due time.

Um, really? How? If we are losing, its because the big corporations are screwing Western Workers, not China.

They are smarter than the West and exploit the greed and freedom of our institutions. Don't blame the MSS, blame our leaders and intelligence agencies.

Actually, I blame our own laziness. They invested in the education and infrastructure, and we didn't.

 

[JoeB131]

ANYONE who reveres Mao is brainwashed or a sociopath.
We have no excuse for the former in the west.

Again, your ignorance of Chinese History is astounding.

Look at it from the Chinese point of view. Before Mao, China was divided into warlord fiefs, being brutalized by the Japanese, 70% of the country was illiterate.

Today. China is a great power, unified, wealthy, with amazing infrastructure and a 98% literacy rate.

Not to say that Mao wasn't a ruthless bastard. He was.

So was Abe Lincoln.

“It's my estimation that every man ever got a statue made of him was one kind of sumbitch or another." -- Malcolm Reynolds​

 

[JoeB131]

They brag every time they threaten a Filipino fishing vessel, which is just about every day now.

China is unquestionably an expansionist bully. They're trying to control international waters and the territorial waters of other nations. They thumb their nose at the World Court who says "disputed" territory doesn't belong to them.

China is very dangerous right now. Just about every other Asian nation is watching them with great concern.

Um, let's get realistic here. These islands, everyone keeps whining about, are recognized internationally as Chinese territory under the Qing and the Republic of China. (Taiwan also claims these Islands.) The Philippines never claimed them. They were not recognized as part of the Spanish or American colonial Adminstration of the Philippines.

 

[Gabe Lackmann]

Y

Again, your ignorance of Chinese History is astounding.

Look at it from the Chinese point of view. Before Mao, China was divided into warlord fiefs, being brutalized by the Japanese, 70% of the country was illiterate.

Today. China is a great power, unified, wealthy, with amazing infrastructure and a 98% literacy rate.

Not to say that Mao wasn't a ruthless bastard. He was.

So was Abe Lincoln.

“It's my estimation that every man ever got a statue made of him was one kind of sumbitch or another." -- Malcolm Reynolds​

None of that was Mao, you ******* moron. Mao did not open China to the West. Deng Xiaoping did.
Most of the wealth creation that you incorrectly attribute to Mao, can actually be attributed to Xi Jinping.
Mao was ******* school girls and swimming the Yangtze in the end.
Before that, he was rather busy killing tens of millions of peasants via numerous, insane agrarian, industrial, and social programs.
So STFU. Nothing worse than a whiteboy American commie. Punk ass.

 

[justoffal]

The problem here is the ignorance of the West.

For China, the key issue here is national sovereignty. While we moan about Tibet or Taiwan or the Uyghurs, China sees these issues as encroachments of their national sovereignty. And given China's history during what it calls the "Century of Humiliation" (百年国耻), which started with the First Opium War and ended with the founding of the People's Republic, it's a sore subject.

Taiwan exists because Japan stole Formosa from them in the First Sino-Japanese War, and the Nationalists set up camp there after they were defeated in the Civil War. China sees this as an intrusion on their national pride.

I also don't think China will merely blockade Taiwan. Blockades take months to be effective. If they pull the bandage off, they will go full invasion, which will either succeed in a couple of weeks or fail miserably.

Fair assessment

 

[TimFitz]

China has a lot of people, a lot of resources, and a lot of money.

And a chip on their shoulders.

Which makes them very dangerous in today's world.



They brag every time they threaten a Filipino fishing vessel, which is just about every day now.

China is unquestionably an expansionist bully. They're trying to control international waters and the territorial waters of other nations. They thumb their nose at the World Court who says "disputed" territory doesn't belong to them.

China is very dangerous right now. Just about every other Asian nation is watching them with great concern.

Nobody has a bigger chip on his shoulder than Donald Trump, who was born with it.

 

[TimFitz]

Um, let's get realistic here. These islands, everyone keeps whining about, are recognized internationally as Chinese territory under the Qing and the Republic of China. (Taiwan also claims these Islands.) The Philippines never claimed them. They were not recognized as part of the Spanish or American colonial Adminstration of the Philippines.

This is patently false.

 

[JoeB131]

None of that was Mao, you ******* moron. Mao did not open China to the West. Deng Xiaoping did.
Most of the wealth creation that you incorrectly attribute to Mao, can actually be attributed to Xi Jinping.

You ignore the progress China made between 1949 and 1976.

Mao was ******* school girls and swimming the Yangtze in the end.
Before that, he was rather busy killing tens of millions of peasants via numerous, insane agrarian, industrial, and social programs.
So STFU. Nothing worse than a whiteboy American commie. Punk ass.

He also fought the UN to a standstill in Korea, got China into the Nuclear Club, and played the US and USSR off against each other.

 

[Rogue AI]

The Chinese military is mostly show and no go. They don’t really have the navy to launch an amphibious invasion, especially if Taiwan’s usual allies back it up.

Why would they need an amphibian assault? It's an island, a naval blockade with a no fly zone is all that's needed. We ceded interest long ago, it is not our problem.