Sweden's Results - Can we trust the Covid 19 models.

[Sun Devil 92]

Well, yes.....

Here we have a look at how Sweden was supposed to be the Typhoid Marry of Corona.

The models predicted all kinds of apacolypic bullshit.....that never happened.

The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).

Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 COVID-19 deaths by July 1. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish COVID-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.

One reason why the models failed is that they — just like most countries’ politicians — underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realize lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.

Can we trust COVID modeling?

At last we’re getting a debate about COVID-19 modeling. A look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study revealed twisted and tangled code

spectator.us

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Sweden is doing what Sweden wants to do.

We will all be there soon enough.

 

[Deleted member 73486]

Well, that's never going to happen here, because as much as people rail against the government, when push comes to shove, most red and blue states want (maybe need) government to step in and make strict distancing rules and programs. If polling is any indication, almost 2/3 of the U.S. population believe that the stay-at-home policies should continue longer!!!

 

[theHawk]

Well, yes.....

Here we have a look at how Sweden was supposed to be the Typhoid Marry of Corona.

The models predicted all kinds of apacolypic bullshit.....that never happened.

The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).

Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 COVID-19 deaths by July 1. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish COVID-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.

One reason why the models failed is that they — just like most countries’ politicians — underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realize lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.

Can we trust COVID modeling?

At last we’re getting a debate about COVID-19 modeling. A look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study revealed twisted and tangled code

spectator.us

************************

Sweden is doing what Sweden wants to do.

We will all be there soon enough.

It’s clear now that the left want to keep everyone living in fear, no matter what the science says.

They still want schools closed, probably for another year, even though children are not affected by the virus much at all. They don’t even spread it.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Sweden rocked it.

So did Brazil.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Brazil has 14 thousand deaths and they have 230 million people.

No lockdown.

Liberals are just trying to tank the economy because ORANGE MAN BAD.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.

 

[Penelope]

Sweden rocked it.

So did Brazil.

So your ok with:

STOCKHOLM — Known for its socialized health care, progressive tax system and liberal social policies, Sweden rarely finds cheerleaders among conservative commentators and activists in the United States.

Lockdown protesters shout 'be like Sweden' — but Swedes say they are missing the point

"The Swedish strategy is very much relying on the individual’s trust in the state," one Swede told NBC News.

www.nbcnews.com

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Good to know, so socialized health care does not take away civil right, and a progressive high taxes doesn't either. Good to know your feelings on liberty. I am in agreement.

BE like Sweden says the republicans.

 

[Deleted member 73486]

Ya, it's funny that conservatives suddenly flock to the Swedish model (no pun intended) when that model supports their narrow interests of reopening the economy.
What they may not understand is that we don't have the robust, public medical system they have, and also that they are way more of a homogeneous population than the one we have in America. I'm afraid our population is not so easily influenced into "doing the right thing", as evidenced in places like Huntington Beach and the Capital steps of Michigan.

 

[Penelope]

https://www.gmtoday.com/news/wisconsin-governor-warns-of-massive-confusion-after-ruling/article_cdb01c3c-95f2-11ea-9f5a-cffcb1afa63a.h

Wi went rogue. The Gov tried so hard but to no avail.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Ya, it's funny that conservatives suddenly flock to the Swedish model (no pun intended) when that model supports their narrow interests of reopening the economy.
What they may not understand is that we don't have the robust, public medical system they have, and also that they are way more of a homogeneous population than the one we have in America. I'm afraid our population is not so easily influenced into "doing the right thing", as evidenced in places like Huntington Beach and the Capital steps of Michigan.

The right thing being protecting the elderly and very young and letting everyone else do what Sweden did ?

I would agree.

 

[Penelope]

The republicans are not even wearing masks, you see the pictures. They are going to cause mass deaths, and we will blame it on the republican's.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

 

[Mindful]

The republicans are not even wearing masks, you see the pictures. They are going to cause mass deaths, and we will blame it on the republican's.

Depends on the natural immunity. Some people have it, some
people don’t. And some people have it in varying degrees.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

The republicans are not even wearing masks, you see the pictures. They are going to cause mass deaths, and we will blame it on the republican's.

What do you blame your mental retardation on ?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

They won't look like Sweden if they keep their rest homes safe.

But things will increase.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

Maybe, maybe not. It could be that Norway and Finland are putting off the inevitable. They have to open up or risk economic collapse and when they do their people are going to start getting exposed to the virus, whereas Sweden's people already are. We may find that Sweden simply got it out of the way up front and also avoided the economic catastrophe the rest of us are now dealing with.

 

[XponentialChaos]

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

Maybe, maybe not. It could be that Norway and Finland are putting off the inevitable. They have to open up or risk economic collapse and when they do their people are going to start getting exposed to the virus, whereas Sweden's people already are. We may find that Sweden simply got it out of the way up front and also avoided the economic catastrophe the rest of us are now dealing with.

Just about anything is possible, but I highly doubt that scenario happens.

A year from now, I expect to see a higher death rate in Sweden than their neighbors.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

Since they are already showing level or downward trends, there is no reason to expect this.

If they totally blow off what they are doing now (they do have precautions in place), then probably.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Just about anything is possible, but I highly doubt that scenario happens.

A year from now, I expect to see a higher death rate in Sweden than their neighbors.

There is nothing scientific to base that conclusion on. Without a vaccine or cure the only way to prevent that result is to stay closed, which they can't realistically do.