Sorry GOP - Inflation stabilizing, deflation starting

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Your side just turned half the population into unwilling breeding machines.

That's been the case for 100,000 years. Where have you been?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

/———/ Yeah, non stop attacks until democRATs get their way. It started with Reagan. It’s how you pigs roll.

Perhaps you all should elect someone with some backbone and conviction and see if that helps.

 

[Couchpotato]

Inflation is stabilizing and many indicators suggests we may actually see disinflation. I see it daily in my business. For those of you who believe in a free market capitalist economy this is how it works. Supply has increased with pandemic disruptions mostly behind us and higher prices from greedy corporations has driven demand lower. We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

1. Falling freight rates
2. Falling commodity prices - worst quarter since Great Recession
3. Easing rents
4. Cheaper GPUs
5. Rising retail inventories

Disinflation begins

Prices are starting to decelerate, but the cause isn't yet clear.

noahpinion.substack.com

For over a year now, we’ve seen inflation rise relentlessly. Price rises have lowered real wages for most workers, driven popular anger, and threatened economic stability. But there are finally indications that the tide is turning. In March, financial markets were predicting an annualized inflation rate of around 3.5% over the next five years; now, that number is down to 2.6%.


And expectations for inflation over the following five years, which had spiked up during the initial phase of the Ukraine war, have plunged back toward the Fed’s official 2% inflation target:


So markets think prices are going to cool down. That’s good in and of itself, because it means we’re in less danger of the sort of expectations-driven spiral that can lead to truly devastating hyperinflation. Markets have not yet lost confidence in the Fed. But this doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, since markets are actually pretty bad at predicting future inflation.

Maybe. But the economy shrunk last quarter and they are predicting another 1% to the negative this quarter. That's a recession and those numbers will come out right before people will be making their decision unless they make up their mind based on the letter next to the person's name.

 

[citygator]

Maybe. But the economy shrunk last quarter and they are predicting another 1% to the negative this quarter. That's a recession and those numbers will come out right before people will be making their decision unless they make up their mind based on the letter next to the person's name.

It may, but a recession with high employment won’t be a big issue. If unemployment blows up, all bets are off for sure.

 

[johngaltshrugged]

Then move.

I think I'll stay. I'll continue to exercise my rights to free speech & tell others how evil, destructive & corrupt the DC UNiparty is & how the current resident is a fraud in a dirty diaper.
I'll decline to participate in the reset & watch as the progbots turn on each other when they realize their safe spaces aren't too safe anymore.
You can move

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Maybe. But the economy shrunk last quarter and they are predicting another 1% to the negative this quarter. That's a recession and those numbers will come out right before people will be making their decision unless they make up their mind based on the letter next to the person's name.

If we are in a recession but UE does not blow up, will anyone really care?

 

[gtopa1]

If we are in a recession but UE does not blow up, will anyone really care?

A lot of "ifs"; why not just get it right in the FIRST PLACE.....like Trump did!!!!

Greg

 

[Harpy Eagle]

A lot of "ifs"; why not just get it right in the FIRST PLACE.....like Trump did!!!!

Greg

Biden is trying to spend as much as Trump did, but just has not gotten there yet.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Perhaps you all should elect someone with some backbone and conviction and see if that helps.

/——-/ So you agree democRATs intentionally pass bloated bills and then pressure the president to sign it. You’d be fine with the the government shutting down, with federal employees who live pay check to pay check getting kicked out of their homes. You’re cool with starving children and denying old people of their meds.

So why don’t you fake outraged libs elect congressmen and senators who will pass a balanced budget?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

/——-/ So you agree democRATs intentionally pass bloated bills and then pressure the president to sign it. You’d be fine with the the government shutting down, with federal employees who live pay check to pay check getting kicked out of their homes. You’re cool with starving children and denying old people of their meds.

So why don’t you fake outraged libs elect congressmen and senators who will pass a balanced budget?

What is your excuse for your chosen one asking for a trillion dollars more spending in just 3 years?

I am not outraged, I just know that both parties are responsible for the 30 plus trillion dollars in debt we have. You on the other hand always gives your beloved party a free pass, making you part of the problem

 

[Couchpotato]

If we are in a recession but UE does not blow up, will anyone really care?

Well, something has to give, doesn't it? Unless the US Gov is just going to pump money into the economy to prop it up which will cause inflation and around and around we go. If the economy is contracting there has to be some consequence to that happening. If I'm an employer and not doing as much business I'm likely not going to keep people on out of the goodness of my heart. Maybe nothing will happen but I'd guess it would be the first time an economy went into a recession and there were no effects felt by most people. Typically that's the less well to do as they have less room for error.

Don't effects from a recession typical lag a quarter or 2 behind? If that's the case the timing doesn't bode well for the people currently in power who WILL get blamed for it.

 

[Couchpotato]

Biden is trying to spend as much as Trump did, but just has not gotten there yet.

To be fair Presidents don't spend money. Congress does. That begins in the house so our budgetary problems would be more aptly laid at the feet of Aunt Nancy.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Well, something has to give, doesn't it? Unless the US Gov is just going to pump money into the economy to prop it up which will cause inflation and around and around we go.

Yeah. something does. The markets will tank for a while, housing market will drop for a while. Inflation should actually go down.

If I'm an employer and not doing as much business I'm likely not going to keep people on out of the goodness of my heart.

This is an issue if you have an over abundance of employees. But overall this is not the case, most places are still looking for more. Thus if demand for goods and services drop as they normally would in a recession, the outcome might be these places no longer are looking to hire more, but do not really need to fire who they have

 

[Couchpotato]

Yeah. something does. The markets will tank for a while, housing market will drop for a while. Inflation should actually go down.



This is an issue if you have an over abundance of employees. But overall this is not the case, most places are still looking for more. Thus if demand for goods and services drop as they normally would in a recession, the outcome might be these places no longer are looking to hire more, but do not really need to fire who they have

We will see. People are going to be crazy upside down on their houses if they built in the last 2 years. Just material costs alone have driven housing prices up beyond what is reasonable. That bubble is going to pop. I dont know if that has the effect it had in 2008 as the reasoning for the burst is certainly different but time will tell on that one. The stock market tanking is going to have a bigger effect than you're giving it. There are tons of retired folks who are not going to be happy when their 401k's are in the shitter come October. They are already not pleased. Add in gas prices and food costs... The effects are already out there. Having a job will be a small solace to people still cant make ends meet.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

We will see. People are going to be crazy upside down on their houses if they built in the last 2 years. Just material costs alone have driven housing prices up beyond what is reasonable

True. I am having one built as we speak. It might lose value before it is done. But that does not harm me in the least as I do not plan to see it for a decade or more.

That bubble is going to pop. I dont know if that has the effect it had in 2008 as the reasoning for the burst is certainly different but time will tell on that one.

We do not have the same sub-prime bomb waiting to go off. Also, one of the big problems in 2008/09 was people lost jobs and could not make payments. If we only get a small UE spike like we had in the 2000 recession then it should not be as much of a problem.

The stock market tanking is going to have a bigger effect than you're giving it. There are tons of retired folks who are not going to be happy when their 401k's are in the shitter come October. They are already not pleased.

Yeah, they are sort of fucked right now.

Add in gas prices and food costs... The effects are already out there. Having a job will be a small solace to people still cant make ends meet.

Both food and gas prices should come down some by then.

Like most people I was predicting a pretty huge red wave in Nov. While I still think they will take the House, the Senate is less sure. I think people underestimate the effect the overturning of RvW plus the talk of going after SSM and birth control will have on voter turnout.

 

[JoeB131]

Last I checked, it was not the Republicans who openly supported insane and depraved sexual perversions such as homosexuality, transsexuality, and now pedophilia.

Uh, Bob, most people are cool with homosexuality now... I mean, I know your cult isn't, but most people are. This is the kind of crazy that's going to scare normal people... you weird obsession with other people's sex lives.

(weird obsessing over my sex life) who is not man enough to do a real man's work, that involves hauling hundreds of pounds of tools to a distant construction site every day, there is no rational reason for anyone to expect that you would understand why a crappy Japanese subcompact isn't a suitable vehicle for many people, or why massively-rising fuel prices are a very real issue for many of us who legitimately need to drive significant distances for work, in vehicles suitable enough to carry our tools and to handle the terrain conditions on a construction site.

So may, what, 1% of you who are in the trades and MIGHT need a truck? Sorry, I see way too many people on the road in big gas guzzlers who aren't doing any sport utility work.

 

[JoeB131]

You posted a gem:

A lot of people realized that it was better to have one parent stay at home rather than work for a job where your salary barely covered child care. Especially if the parent who kept working saw a raise for staying at work.

I think everyone knows someone who fits that description. And the progressives wanted to give people money to stay home, rather than making after school and day care cheaper. And now it costs more to drive to work.

I know a couple that falls into that category. She's now the breadwinner, he's staying at home with their son. Add home businesses into that mix, and you have an economy that is very different than the one we had 10 years ago.

Clinton got us in one, in fact Bush Jr inherited the Clinton recession.

Obama and the Dems drove us to the edge of a second great depression...the GOP Congress helped get us out of the double digit UE that the Dems gave us

You live in your own fantasy world.

2001 Recession didn't start until Q2 of 2001. That's all Bush.

2008 recession - also Bush, because he let the banksters run amok lying about the value of their assets.

 

[JoeB131]

View attachment 664684

Show me on this graph where the Dems touched your privates.

They'd rather chew off their own arms than give the black guy any credit.

 

[JoeB131]

Incels vote 94% republican. Check the mirror.

Bob doesn't actually understand what "Incel" means.

He thinks it means 'unmarried".

 

[struth]

I know a couple that falls into that category. She's now the breadwinner, he's staying at home with their son. Add home businesses into that mix, and you have an economy that is very different than the one we had 10 years ago.



You live in your own fantasy world.

2001 Recession didn't start until Q2 of 2001. That's all Bush.

2008 recession - also Bush, because he let the banksters run amok lying about the value of their assets.

i am referring to clinton .com bubble