Sorry GOP - Inflation stabilizing, deflation starting

[citygator]

/-----/ You smokin some strong shyt --

American Lookout Headlines

Looking Out For America • headlines.americanlookout.com

americanlookout.com

According to the new AP NORC Poll, not only do a majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, but 78 percent of Democrats feel that way.

A majority of people in Biden’s own party are saying that things are headed in the wrong direction.

Polls are a trailing indicator. We are talking bout where things are going. Keep up.

 

[CowboyTed]

that’s silly…republicans do everything to avoid recessions…that’s why we don’t vote dembot

You know recessions cyclical, they come and go... It is about how you handle them rather than trying to avoid them...

Overspending or Borrowing money in a boom is one of the things to avoid... Trump was borrowing a trillion a year while telling everyone how great the economy is...We call that overheating the economy and not letting it run its natural course...

What you are meant to do is let the recession come and then spend your way out of it quickly... When on the way back up you cut spending to ride the boom as long as you can...

 

[citygator]

My concern is that in the past, the Fed has tried to fight inflation by encouraging unemployment. I'm just not sure if this 1980's policy will work in the 2020's.

First, because of the mass retirement of boomers, we just don't have a deep pool of excess labor. Yesterday, I was talking to a recruiter through my resume business, and she admitted that when one Boomer retires, they have to hire two millennials to make up for the skill loss, and they demand ridiculous amounts of money for a scant amount of experience, and employers end up giving it to them.

Secondly, because such model assume manufacturing is a bigger part of the labor pool than it is. Between automation and outsourcing, there just aren't as many people who work at factories anymore.

This may be a pullback with low unemployment for exactly the reason you mentioned. Since supply is 70% of the issue I don’t think 80’s remedies are needed. The market will self correct mostly and whoever is in charge will claim they did it (pubs or dems).

 

[struth]

You know recessions cyclical, they come and go... It is about how you handle them rather than trying to avoid them...

Overspending or Borrowing money in a boom is one of the things to avoid... Trump was borrowing a trillion a year while telling everyone how great the economy is...We call that overheating the economy and not letting it run its natural course...

What you are meant to do is let the recession come and then spend your way out of it quickly... When on the way back up you cut spending to ride the boom as long as you can...

agreed…obama and the dems gave us double digit UE with their mishandling or a recession.

 

[citygator]

Layoffs already being talked of in my neck of the woods:

Stellantis to lay off workers at Sterling Heights stamping plant

Stellantis is gearing up to lay off workers at its stamping plant in Sterling Heights, United Auto Workers officials said Tuesday.

www.clickondetroit.com

That it anecdotal. You can always find that. What does the unemployment numbers say? Well, it’s only 1.9% unemployment in San Francisco.

S.F. unemployment rate falls to record low 1.9% — here’s why that’s not as strong as it looks

San Francisco’s minuscule unemployment rate doesn’t mean the city has fully recovered...

www.sfchronicle.com

 

[Cellblock2429]

Polls are a trailing indicator. We are talking bout where things are going. Keep up.

/——-/ 78% of your fellow democRATs say Joe blows.

 

[citygator]

I see the progbot delusions & gaslighting are out strong this AM.
Our country is fractured & the economy is crashing. People have much less discretionary income after paying bills which will drag down the businesses that depend on them.
The housing market bubble is popping, our GDP has been contracting for 8 months straight, savings rates are crashing, inflation is destroying any income gains, our domestic energy production is getting hammered, diesel shortages are getting worse, the stock markets are in free fall, the poorest & fixed income are barely making ends meet, companies are announcing layoffs & supply chains are breaking down.
This is the Dems idea of success

View attachment 664636

Then move.

 

[citygator]

agreed…obama and the dems gave us double digit UE with their mishandling or a recession.

Show me on this graph where the Dems touched your privates.

 

[Jets]

Not for anything, but these indicators are not going to be enough to prevent the GOP taking over Congress.

 

[struth]

View attachment 664684

Show me on this graph where the Dems touched your privates.

around 2010 when we had double digit UE

 

[Aldo Raine]

Deflation is needed as prices in many markets were inflated. However deflation can be harmful as it causes rising unemployment and falling stock prices.

Yup, runaway deflation can have a seriously negative impact as well.
MAGA

 

[citygator]

I dunno. The comment by Powell when they up rates .75 that they were trying to kill expectation of costs without killing demand ... or something like that.

Even if supply chains unsnarl, we had four years of Trump trying end trade with china, and US WORKERS HAVE NOT COME BACK TO WORK. And the progs want to pay people to stay home. And they're still trying to revive BBB. Trump and Biden both echo the economics of the 1980 UnitedFuckingAutoWorkers

Russia's war will continue for at least a year. And even then, Russia's oil is still in the global supply; it's just being sold to china and india at "discount" which is still more than pre-pandemic. Food will continue to cost more, and that's been predicted for ten years or more, since we grow most of what we consume, I guess the US will get a bit of a break. But workers are STILL not coming back despite higher wages. WE have something like two openings for each worker wanting a job, and Trump killed legal immigration, and Biden is consumed with people seeking asylum rather than a job.

If a year from now we have 4% inflation it will only prove God takes care of idiots and Irishmen

You’re not wrong. We do need workers to keep inflation down and supply of goods and oil. There is a lot of moving factors but the war needs to end.

 

[citygator]

around 2010 when we had double digit UE

The Bush recession. We all know that. Obama presided over the longest growth economy and added more jobs than anyone.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

clinton, obama, xiden all gave us recession

There was a recession that started in 1990, before Clinton, and one that started in 2001, after Clinton.

There was a recession that started in 2007 before Obama and one that started in 2020 after Obama.

But yes, you will be correct about Biden.

Congrats.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

around 2010 when we had double digit UE

That recession started in 2007 and ended in 2009. UE peaked in Oct of 2009

 

[Cellblock2429]

You know recessions cyclical, they come and go... It is about how you handle them rather than trying to avoid them...

Overspending or Borrowing money in a boom is one of the things to avoid... Trump was borrowing a trillion a year while telling everyone how great the economy is...We call that overheating the economy and not letting it run its natural course...

What you are meant to do is let the recession come and then spend your way out of it quickly... When on the way back up you cut spending to ride the boom as long as you can...

/——-/ “Trump was borrowing a trillion a year while telling everyone how great the economy is”
Funny thing is, the democRAT Congress was and still is the one spending the money. The president has no authority to control the budget- not Trump, not Biden.

 

[struth]

The Bush recession. We all know that. Obama presided over the longest growth economy and added more jobs than anyone.

sorry bush was out of office for almost two years l…obama and the dems policies were totally in place. They had congress and the oval

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The president has no authority to control the budget- not Trump, not Biden.

and all this time I thought that POTUS had to sign the spending bills before they could go into effect.

 

[struth]

That recession started in 2007 and ended in 2009. UE peaked in Oct of 2009

it went well into 2010 and the rate didn’t start to drop until after the gop sweep the midterms

 

[bodecea]

Inflation is stabilizing and many indicators suggests we may actually see disinflation. I see it daily in my business. For those of you who believe in a free market capitalist economy this is how it works. Supply has increased with pandemic disruptions mostly behind us and higher prices from greedy corporations has driven demand lower. We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

1. Falling freight rates
2. Falling commodity prices - worst quarter since Great Recession
3. Easing rents
4. Cheaper GPUs
5. Rising retail inventories

Disinflation begins

Prices are starting to decelerate, but the cause isn't yet clear.

noahpinion.substack.com

For over a year now, we’ve seen inflation rise relentlessly. Price rises have lowered real wages for most workers, driven popular anger, and threatened economic stability. But there are finally indications that the tide is turning. In March, financial markets were predicting an annualized inflation rate of around 3.5% over the next five years; now, that number is down to 2.6%.


And expectations for inflation over the following five years, which had spiked up during the initial phase of the Ukraine war, have plunged back toward the Fed’s official 2% inflation target:


So markets think prices are going to cool down. That’s good in and of itself, because it means we’re in less danger of the sort of expectations-driven spiral that can lead to truly devastating hyperinflation. Markets have not yet lost confidence in the Fed. But this doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, since markets are actually pretty bad at predicting future inflation.

Hope so...but it's hard to turn the entire world's inflation and gas prices around.....like turning an aircraft carrier.....it's not going reverse quickly.