Sorry GOP - Inflation stabilizing, deflation starting

[JoeB131]

i am referring to clinton .com bubble

And you would still be wrong. The Dot.com bubble isn't what caused the 2001 recession. What caused the 2001 recession was all these companies OVERSTOCKED on durable goods, and had warehouses of stock they couldn't move. Further compounding that was 9/11 (you know, the thing Bush was warned about and did nothing to prevent) putting the whole economy into a panic.

 

[Missourian]

My concern is that in the past, the Fed has tried to fight inflation by encouraging unemployment. I'm just not sure if this 1980's policy will work in the 2020's.

First, because of the mass retirement of boomers, we just don't have a deep pool of excess labor. Yesterday, I was talking to a recruiter through my resume business, and she admitted that when one Boomer retires, they have to hire two millennials to make up for the skill loss, and they demand ridiculous amounts of money for a scant amount of experience, and employers end up giving it to them.

Secondly, because such model assume manufacturing is a bigger part of the labor pool than it is. Between automation and outsourcing, there just aren't as many people who work at factories anymore.

I read this somewhere last week.

The Fed is attempting a "soft landing" but, based on the articles, the chances of that are roughly aligned with jumping out of an airplane with nothing but an umbrella and a trash bag and walking away from the landing.

Unfortunately Macroeconomics is not a subject on which I am qualified to opine, so I'm forced to trust what I read...that we are looking at an engineered recession in our future unless we are exceptionally...bordering on miraculously lucky.

And we're off to a very rocky start.

 

[HenryBHough]

Inflation is stabilizing and many indicators suggests we may actually see disinflation. I see it daily in my business. For those of you who believe in a free market capitalist economy this is how it works. Supply has increased with pandemic disruptions mostly behind us and higher prices from greedy corporations has driven demand lower. We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

1. Falling freight rates
2. Falling commodity prices - worst quarter since Great Recession
3. Easing rents
4. Cheaper GPUs
5. Rising retail inventories

Disinflation begins

Prices are starting to decelerate, but the cause isn't yet clear.

noahpinion.substack.com

For over a year now, we’ve seen inflation rise relentlessly. Price rises have lowered real wages for most workers, driven popular anger, and threatened economic stability. But there are finally indications that the tide is turning. In March, financial markets were predicting an annualized inflation rate of around 3.5% over the next five years; now, that number is down to 2.6%.


And expectations for inflation over the following five years, which had spiked up during the initial phase of the Ukraine war, have plunged back toward the Fed’s official 2% inflation target:


So markets think prices are going to cool down. That’s good in and of itself, because it means we’re in less danger of the sort of expectations-driven spiral that can lead to truly devastating hyperinflation. Markets have not yet lost confidence in the Fed. But this doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, since markets are actually pretty bad at predicting future inflation.

Futile though I know it to be....

I feel compelled to remind you that board rules require your SHARING your stash of whatever-in-Hell that is you're smoking.

 

[bendog]

And you would still be wrong. The Dot.com bubble isn't what caused the 2001 recession. What caused the 2001 recession was all these companies OVERSTOCKED on durable goods, and had warehouses of stock they couldn't move. Further compounding that was 9/11 (you know, the thing Bush was warned about and did nothing to prevent) putting the whole economy into a panic.

Hunting for the Clinton Recession is for RW partisans sort of like Bigfoot is for the relatively harmless people who watch Dr Who.

Early 2000s recession - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There was this "thing" in the nasdaq that really didn't affect people unless they worked in tech or owned tech stock, and then there was 9-11.

 

[JoeB131]

Hunting for the Clinton Recession is for RW partisans sort of like Bigfoot is for the relatively harmless people who watch Dr Who.

Hey, I like Doctor Who... Or at least I did until the current incarnation of the show, which is just awful.

 

[bendog]

Futile though I know it to be....

I feel compelled to remind you that board rules require your SHARING your stash of whatever-in-Hell that is you're smoking.

imo, that's a bit overly harsh because prices do appear to be stablizing with things affected by supply, although not uniformly. There are more chips for cars, for example.

But the Fed admits that it's power is pretty ineffective in terms of oil or war.

 

[struth]

And you would still be wrong. The Dot.com bubble isn't what caused the 2001 recession. What caused the 2001 recession was all these companies OVERSTOCKED on durable goods, and had warehouses of stock they couldn't move. Further compounding that was 9/11 (you know, the thing Bush was warned about and did nothing to prevent) putting the whole economy into a panic.

yeah i am referring to the recession caused by the .com bubble bursting

 

[Flash]

"Inflation stabilizing" is like the noose around your neck not getting any tighter as you are being hanged.

 

[bendog]

Hey, I like Doctor Who... Or at least I did until the current incarnation of the show, which is just awful.

LOL. I can't remember who played the Dr when I first watched. I haven't seen it since Tennant, who is still pretty enjoyable. I loved Good Omens. Read it twice and watched it twice.

 

[bendog]

yeah i am referring to the recession caused by the .com bubble bursting

keep digging. It's there. I once found a slip of my wife's that our first dog buried nearly ten years before.

 

[struth]

keep digging. It's there. I once found a slip of my wife's that our first dog buried nearly ten years before.

not doing any digging…everyone remembers the clinton .com recession

 

[Rogue AI]

This may be a pullback with low unemployment for exactly the reason you mentioned. Since supply is 70% of the issue I don’t think 80’s remedies are needed. The market will self correct mostly and whoever is in charge will claim they did it (pubs or dems).

We don't control the supply chain anymore. All it takes is one natural disaster or a political move to set the whole thing back or worse. That idiot Biden spewing the wrong thing may be all it takes.

 

[basquebromance]

/thread

 

[Couchpotato]

True. I am having one built as we speak. It might lose value before it is done. But that does not harm me in the least as I do not plan to see it for a decade or more.

I would say you are not typical in that regard though you will be because it's going to take years for the market to catch up so people won't have a choice but to stay where they are. What that means for the economy Im not sure but I doubt it's a good thing. Stagnation rarely is.

We do not have the same sub-prime bomb waiting to go off. Also, one of the big problems in 2008/09 was people lost jobs and could not make payments. If we only get a small UE spike like we had in the 2000 recession then it should not be as much of a problem.

For sure, that's what I was referring to in my post. I do wonder what happens as people got into their first home or expanded their families are looking to upgrade but cant because they are stuck in their home due to lack of value. How does that effect the over all market. Do new home builds just take up the slack building those entry level homes that are unavailable, and if that happens what then happens when we inevitably have a glut of those starter homes and the values just keep dropping. That's likely years and years down the road, but not looking ahead is what got us here in the first place so...

Yeah, they are sort of fucked right now.



Both food and gas prices should come down some by then.

Maybe but not much. We arent going to see significant deflation I dont think are we? And the issues surrounding lack of investment if fossil fuel futures isnt going to change by October. I dont think the Biden Admin is going to change it's stance do you?

Like most people I was predicting a pretty huge red wave in Nov. While I still think they will take the House, the Senate is less sure. I think people underestimate the effect the overturning of RvW plus the talk of going after SSM and birth control will have on voter turnout.

For sure the Democrats will capitalize on people's lack of reading the actual decision and their lack of understanding what overturning RvW actually does. Whether that translates to them winning the Senate we will see I guess. People only give a shit about things like that when they arent worried about how they are going to feed their families and make the mortgage payments. It's a luxury issue much like the environment.

 

[Couchpotato]

It may, but a recession with high employment won’t be a big issue. If unemployment blows up, all bets are off for sure.

Dont the effects of a recession typically lag a quarter or 2? I guess job numbers from next month will give some indication maybe though month to month numbers arent a great barometer. As interest rates go up and money gets less "free" it will be interesting to see how the economy reacts. I hope it keeps rolling and people keep spending money.

 

[g5000]

Deflation is needed as prices in many markets were inflated. However deflation can be harmful as it causes rising unemployment and falling stock prices.

The Fed waited too long to act, and we may end up in recession.

The reason inflation is so high is because our economy bounced back so rapidly.

For all the Fed's flaws, the last thing we need is for Congress to have their hands on the monetary printing press. Inflation provides full employment, and Congress would not be able to resist the public pressure to keep printing more and more money until we had hyperinflation.

Most of our economic problems can be directly attributed to pain avoidance. But this only leads to greater and greater pain which will eventually be unavoidable.

The piper has to be paid.

 

[g5000]

View attachment 664631

Bingo.

 

[Flash]

Raging US inflation is FAR WORSE than we're being told: If the government calculated price increases the same way it did in the 1980s, we'd ALREADY be in Jimmy Carter territory, write former restaurant empire CEO ANDY PUZDER and ex-senator JIM TALENT

Now, what if we told you that America's economic outlook is even darker than that?

What if we told you that the dire statistics splashed across the headlines and your TV screens don't even come close to accurately describing the reality?

Well, buckle up – because that's what we're telling you.

Economist John Williams estimates the inflation number today would be about 16% if it were calculated as it was in the Carter years. (Key above) The SGS-Alternate CPI, 1980-Based (blue line) relies on the methodology which was employed prior to 1983. The CPI-U (red line) is the measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

US inflation is WORSE than we're being told: ANDY PUZDER, JIM TALENT

 

[Cellblock2429]

What is your excuse for your chosen one asking for a trillion dollars more spending in just 3 years?

I am not outraged, I just know that both parties are responsible for the 30 plus trillion dollars in debt we have. You on the other hand always gives your beloved party a free pass, making you part of the problem

/-----/ Tell the whole story for once in your pathetic life.
President Donald Trump proposed a record $4.7 trillion budget on Monday, pushing the federal deficit past $1 trillion but counting on optimistic growth, accounting shuffles and steep domestic cuts to bring future spending into balance in 15 years.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

/-----/ Tell the whole story for once in your pathetic life.
President Donald Trump proposed a record $4.7 trillion budget on Monday, pushing the federal deficit past $1 trillion but counting on optimistic growth, accounting shuffles and steep domestic cuts to bring future spending into balance in 15 years.

I always love this shit. You people are such fucking sheep.

The POTUS has no fucking control over what takes place after he leaves office, he cannot tell you what will happen in 15 years.

All he could do was control his own spending, and instead he set records with each budget he submitted

But yeah, sure his budget for FY22 was going to save money 15 years down the road....and I have a nice piece of ocean front property right out side of Hill City Kansas for sale, you seem just the right buyer.