Sorry GOP - Inflation stabilizing, deflation starting

[Harpy Eagle]

I would say you are not typical in that regard though you will be because it's going to take years for the market to catch up so people won't have a choice but to stay where they are.

It took less than 4 years for the housing market to catch up after the 2008/9 recession. But yes, we are not typical as we put 20% which is more than most can manage.

What that means for the economy Im not sure but I doubt it's a good thing. Stagnation rarely is.

It was a major factor in the UE rate improving as slow as it did after the great recession, people could not move to where the jobs were as their home values were underwater.

For sure, that's what I was referring to in my post. I do wonder what happens as people got into their first home or expanded their families are looking to upgrade but cant because they are stuck in their home due to lack of value. How does that effect the over all market. Do new home builds just take up the slack building those entry level homes that are unavailable, and if that happens what then happens when we inevitably have a glut of those starter homes and the values just keep dropping. That's likely years and years down the road, but not looking ahead is what got us here in the first place so...

From what I have seen, just about nobody is building "entry level/starter homes". This is a huge problem in our country and has little to do with the current situation, but the current situation will just make it worse.

Maybe but not much. We arent going to see significant deflation I dont think are we? And the issues surrounding lack of investment if fossil fuel futures isnt going to change by October. I dont think the Biden Admin is going to change it's stance do you?

No, Biden will not change. If things get better it will be despite him, not because of him

For sure the Democrats will capitalize on people's lack of reading the actual decision and their lack of understanding what overturning RvW actually does.

it is not just about RvW, it is about everything that is now on the chopping block. I could have lived with RvW and it going back to the states. But the Repubs are not content with that. Thomas wrote what was next, first Same Sex Marriage, then legal Birth Control. Some Repubs have even talked about going after interracial marriage, though Thomas for obvious reasons could not say that part out loud.

Whether that translates to them winning the Senate we will see I guess.

I think it will be enough to help the Dems keep the Senate, they have far less seats to defend this time around.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

Yeah, with his 39% approval rating, inability to complete a sentence and gas near $5,
the dems will probably only lose 45 House seats.

 

[Couchpotato]

It took less than 4 years for the housing market to catch up after the 2008/9 recession. But yes, we are not typical as we put 20% which is more than most can manage.

Like you said before though this is a different problem. In 2008 the issue was more homes than people to buy them not that they were horribly overvalued. Once the economy righted itself the issue went away. Couple that with low interest rates and people were right back in the market buying up those homes. Now the homes are just way overvalued. I built our house right as COVID started. It's almost doubled in "value". My house isn't worth near what I could sell it for, but I could and if I did the person who bought it would have to wait for a very long time for the market to reach that price again once it comes back to earth. Of course that's conjecture. If the price of materials never comes back down to what it was or close to it then the home values will stay elevated. When I built this house 7/16 OSB could be had for 12-13 bucks a sheet. It was up to over 50 at one point since then. It's still hovering at around 20 but that's a bargain compared to 50. Studs were less than 2 dollars. At one point they were over 7, now back "down" to a little over 4. Doubling, tripling and sometimes quadrupling your material costs when you build has a huge impact on your cost. And no one is going to pay you once those material costs come down for that. Why would I when I can get a new one built for less?

It was a major factor in the UE rate improving as slow as it did after the great recession, people could not move to where the jobs were as their home values were underwater.



From what I have seen, just about nobody is building "entry level/starter homes". This is a huge problem in our country and has little to do with the current situation, but the current situation will just make it worse.



No, Biden will not change. If things get better it will be despite him, not because of him



it is not just about RvW, it is about everything that is now on the chopping block. I could have lived with RvW and it going back to the states. But the Repubs are not content with that. Thomas wrote what was next, first Same Sex Marriage, then legal Birth Control. Some Repubs have even talked about going after interracial marriage, though Thomas for obvious reasons could not say that part out loud.

It says in the decision that this ruling can not be used as justification for over turning those decisions explicitly. It literally lists those decisions in the Dobbs decision as not over turn able based on the Dobbs finding. For numerous reasons listed in the decision. Did you not read it? Overturning SSM would have HUGE reliance issues, same with interracial marriage just to name one reason listed. But even if the court pushed those matters to the states (and that might be the right decision from a legal perspective, which is what Justice Thomas was saying) do we really think State Legislatures would pass laws forbidding birth control? Or SSM? Or Interracial Marriage? If they did they wouldn't last long in office.

This is the problem with these issues frankly. Pro choice advocates haven't been willing to do the hard work associated with getting actual laws passed at the state level. Though prior to Roe the country was headed in a much more progressive direction concerning abortion. If that had been allowed to run it's course, and we had the actual debate regarding it we would probably be in a much better space now. Here's the crazy thing. Roe being over turned will stop exactly zero abortions from happening. If abortion is any where near as popular as the pro choice advocates proclaim Roe shouldn't be an issue. Get your law passed in the State legislature. Easy peasy if 75% of the people agree with you. In fact you don't have to actually pass a law for abortion to be legal. Just don't pass one that makes it illegal, so even easier . I'm not sure what all the hyperventilating is about.

I think it will be enough to help the Dems keep the Senate, they have far less seats to defend this time around.

We will see. Are there a bunch of Senator's retiring? Or is that in the House?

 

[Couchpotato]

Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

I dont see any scenario in which the Dems sweep in November. Mid term elections never go well for the incumbent President even when they are popular which Biden is the opposite of that so....

I guess maybe if the Republican start having child sacrifices on live TV it could happen but barring that the D's are losing Congress in the fall.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It says in the decision that this ruling can not be used as justification for over turning those decisions explicitly. It literally lists those decisions in the Dobbs decision as not over turn able based on the Dobbs finding. For numerous reasons listed in the decision. Did you not read it?

I did read it, but the same people that implied under oath that RvW was safe said that. I have no reason whatsoever to trust anything they say or put in a ruling.

Thomas said they were next, many of those on the right are pushing for them to be next. There is nothing that is safe from this current make up of the court.

But even if the court pushed those matters to the states (and that might be the right decision from a legal perspective, which is what Justice Thomas was saying) do we really think State Legislatures would pass laws forbidding birth control?

Why not, the reason there was a court case in the first place is because they did.

Or SSM? Or Interracial Marriage? If they did they wouldn't last long in office.

The base would love them and worship them and fight for them if they did.

 

[citygator]

I dont see any scenario in which the Dems sweep in November. Mid term elections never go well for the incumbent President even when they are popular which Biden is the opposite of that so....

I guess maybe if the Republican start having child sacrifices on live TV it could happen but barring that the D's are losing Congress in the fall.

I was expecting the traditional opposing party sweep as well but the SCOTUS overreach may be the lynchpin for middle America along with the insanity of Trump and his supporters. I’m not sure yet it but tamping down inflation will make it more likely.

 

[Couchpotato]

I was expecting the traditional opposing party sweep as well but the SCOTUS overreach may be the lynchpin for middle America along with the insanity of Trump and his supporters. I’m not sure yet it but tamping down inflation will make it more likely.

Middle America isn’t going to swing left because the SCOTUS overturned Roe.

 

[Couchpotato]

I did read it, but the same people that implied under oath that RvW was safe said that. I have no reason whatsoever to trust anything they say or put in a ruling.

Thomas said they were next, many of those on the right are pushing for them to be next. There is nothing that is safe from this current make up of the court.



Why not, the reason there was a court case in the first place is because they did.



The base would love them and worship them and fight for them if they did.

Dude you’re smoking some serious shit tonight.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

65 million people got displaced from their jobs... I'd call it one.



Yet, Republicans brought us Recessions in 2020,

Really? How'd they do that?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Inflation is stabilizing and many indicators suggests we may actually see disinflation. I see it daily in my business. For those of you who believe in a free market capitalist economy this is how it works. Supply has increased with pandemic disruptions mostly behind us and higher prices from greedy corporations has driven demand lower. We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

1. Falling freight rates
2. Falling commodity prices - worst quarter since Great Recession
3. Easing rents
4. Cheaper GPUs
5. Rising retail inventories

Disinflation begins

Prices are starting to decelerate, but the cause isn't yet clear.

noahpinion.substack.com

For over a year now, we’ve seen inflation rise relentlessly. Price rises have lowered real wages for most workers, driven popular anger, and threatened economic stability. But there are finally indications that the tide is turning. In March, financial markets were predicting an annualized inflation rate of around 3.5% over the next five years; now, that number is down to 2.6%.


And expectations for inflation over the following five years, which had spiked up during the initial phase of the Ukraine war, have plunged back toward the Fed’s official 2% inflation target:


So markets think prices are going to cool down. That’s good in and of itself, because it means we’re in less danger of the sort of expectations-driven spiral that can lead to truly devastating hyperinflation. Markets have not yet lost confidence in the Fed. But this doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, since markets are actually pretty bad at predicting future inflation.

We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.

Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Graph and download economic data for from Jan 1960 to May 2022 about all items, CPI, price index, price, indexes, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

8.6% in May.......where is the moderation?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The SGS-Alternate CPI, 1980-Based (blue line) relies on the methodology which was employed prior to 1983.

Williams doesn't use the pre-1983 methodology to calculate CPI.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Hunting for the Clinton Recession is for RW partisans

The recession starting in March 2001 wasn't Clinton's?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I know a couple that falls into that category. She's now the breadwinner, he's staying at home with their son. Add home businesses into that mix, and you have an economy that is very different than the one we had 10 years ago.



You live in your own fantasy world.

2001 Recession didn't start until Q2 of 2001. That's all Bush.

2008 recession - also Bush, because he let the banksters run amok lying about the value of their assets.

2001 Recession didn't start until Q2 of 2001. That's all Bush.

March 2001.....how is that "all Bush"?

 

[Bob Blaylock]

I guess maybe if the Republican start having child sacrifices on live TV it could happen but barring that the D's are losing Congress in the fall.

In Ancient times, it was Moloch. Today, it's abortion, and faggot/tranny groomers.

 

[JoeB131]

yeah i am referring to the recession caused by the .com bubble bursting

Oh, then you have no idea what you are talking about then, as the two things were largely unrelated.

LOL. I can't remember who played the Dr when I first watched. I haven't seen it since Tennant, who is still pretty enjoyable. I loved Good Omens. Read it twice and watched it twice.

I've been watching since Tom Baker in the 1970's.

Matt Smith was really good in the role. Peter Capaldi wasn't bad. Jodie Whitaker, on the other hand, is simply awful. Not because of her gender, but because she has a very limited acting range and her scripts are garbage.

 

[struth]

Oh, then you have no idea what you are talking about then, as the two things were largely unrelated.





I've been watching since Tom Baker in the 1970's.

Matt Smith was really good in the role. Peter Capaldi wasn't bad. Jodie Whitaker, on the other hand, is simply awful. Not because of her gender, but because she has a very limited acting range and her scripts are garbage.

nah directly related to the recession i am talking about that clinton left for bush to clean up…which he did…even with 9/11

 

[JoeB131]

In Ancient times, it was Moloch. Today, it's abortion, and faggot/tranny groomers.

Moloch worship was largely a myth...

As for who is doing the "grooming".

Why Is Sexual Abuse So Common in the Mormon Church? - Hurley McKenna & Mertz, P.C.

The Mormon Church is facing a number of sexual abuse allegations. Learn why this atrocity is so commonplace in the Mormon Church.

www.hurley-law.com

Mormon church sued for alleged role in Boy Scouts sex abuse

PHOENIX (AP) — The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was hit with several lawsuits Monday for allegedly covering up decades of sexual abuse among Boy Scout troops in Arizona, marking the latest litigation before the state's end-of-year deadline for adult victims to sue. The church...

apnews.com

 

[francoHFW]

/-----/ You smokin some strong shyt --

American Lookout Headlines

Looking Out For America

americanlookout.com

According to the new AP NORC Poll, not only do a majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, but 78 percent of Democrats feel that way.

A majority of people in Biden’s own party are saying that things are headed in the wrong direction.

All because of your hero Putin...of course....Better give him Ukraine, eh?
I can see that brainwash coming on... .

 

[francoHFW]

nah directly related to the recession i am talking about that clinton left for bush to clean up…which he did…even with 9/11

with a nice corrupt real estate bubble.... How did that work out? Oh, and a couple of really stupid wars great for the defense industry... ..... .

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

All because of your hero Putin...of course....Better give him Ukraine, eh?
I can see that brainwash coming on... .

We need to be flexible. Reset our relationship.
The 1980s called.