Someone just blew up Ukraine’s Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and took out a major dam

[Litwin]

Russia

 

[Litwin]

Assad

1917 n2 ?)

 

[Litwin]

 

[Ringo]

 

[Kruska]

can you explain to me this : The flood is expected to subside and drain into the Black Sea within 10-11 days. So what military benefit does blowing the dam provide other than to delay a possible Ukraine assault for 2 weeks? I don't get 's logic

Maybe my reply onto another thread can help to sooth your confusion.

That Ukraine will sooner or later attack across the Dnieper is highly likely. Therefore if you would be the Ukrainians - would you commence with an attack - involving pontoon bridges, barges and all other kind of boats - whilst penetrating e.g. 5-15km with troops and vehicles onto the Eastern Bank - before blowing up the dam or waiting for the Russians to blow it up during your attack?

Last year the Russians never flooded the lower Dnieper delta or Kherson - but regulated additional water via an intact dam - into the existing marsh-lands on the Eastern-Bank. Therefore being able to keep the marshlands as a natural barrier/defense against the UAF, and still would be, via regulating additional water quantities. Now the Dnieper is flooding uncontrolled the entire Western and Eastern bank.

It takes around 2-3 month for the water to reside and the flooded marsh-lands to dry up - with no big chances of the marshlands to recover. And the UAF, IMO does not have the necessary numbers to start a larger attack before August/September. Also water-shortage on Crimea due to the reservoir being emptied now, will cause far more serious issues for the Russians in dry August/September.

Same logic goes IMO for the Russians - why flood an area that does not behold enemy units and literally softens up/destroys their own defense positions? with no chances to keep these marshlands nice and wet - due to there being no more dam.

 

[Litwin]

Ukraine

Peter Zeihan : The Muscovite Go Scorched Earth: Destroying a Critical Dam For Crimea

this is a sign that the horde 🇷🇺 🐐is desperate. They are permanently cutting off water to Crimea (one of the reasons for the invasion) just to delay the offensive. The horde believes that Ukraine is likely to have success in their offensive and this is a desperate move to stop or delay it.

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[CrusaderFrank]

And none of those things would have happened if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine.

I'll allow for the possibility of incompetence. It's not like I can argue with a straight face that the Russian "managers" are competent to operate a structurally weakened dam. It's also possible they intended a smaller flood, just enough to dislodge the AFU from the delta islands, and it got away from them.

I know their story has evolved over the day, from nothing happened at all and everything is normal, to it was shelled by the AFU...

Just stop

 

[Kruska]

Peter Zeihan : The Muscovite Go Scorched Earth: Destroying a Critical Dam For Crimea

this is a sign that the horde 🇷🇺 🐐is desperate. They are permanently cutting off water to Crimea (one of the reasons for the invasion) just to delay the offensive. The horde believes that Ukraine is likely to have success in their offensive and this is a desperate move to stop or delay it.

www.usmessageboard.com

A typical one-sided Western MSM and IMO, nonsense article.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

So you still believe this war was unprovoked. Lol.

He’s clearly a disinformation specialist

 

[Litwin]

A typical one-sided Western MSM and IMO, nonsense article.

how is weather in Omsk ?

 

[Litwin]

Western MSM

so Peter Zeihan is MSM ? really ?

 

[JohnDB]

Maybe my reply onto another thread can help to sooth your confusion.

That Ukraine will sooner or later attack across the Dnieper is highly likely. Therefore if you would be the Ukrainians - would you commence with an attack - involving pontoon bridges, barges and all other kind of boats - whilst penetrating e.g. 5-15km with troops and vehicles onto the Eastern Bank - before blowing up the dam or waiting for the Russians to blow it up during your attack?

Last year the Russians never flooded the lower Dnieper delta or Kherson - but regulated additional water via an intact dam - into the existing marsh-lands on the Eastern-Bank. Therefore being able to keep the marshlands as a natural barrier/defense against the UAF, and still would be, via regulating additional water quantities. Now the Dnieper is flooding uncontrolled the entire Western and Eastern bank.

It takes around 2-3 month for the water to reside and the flooded marsh-lands to dry up - with no big chances of the marshlands to recover. And the UAF, IMO does not have the necessary numbers to start a larger attack before August/September. Also water-shortage on Crimea due to the reservoir being emptied now, will cause far more serious issues for the Russians in dry August/September.

Same logic goes IMO for the Russians - why flood an area that does not behold enemy units and literally softens up/destroys their own defense positions? with no chances to keep these marshlands nice and wet - due to there being no more dam.

The reservoirs in Crimea are full....so are the reservoirs for Zapporhizia power plant and the one that feeds the canal to Crimea.

So that will keep them in water supplies for months. But it's not inexhaustible as it once was....but it buys time. And yes, it does free up troops to attack elsewhere because of the marshes as you have pointed out. Trucks, bradleys, and tanks sink in mud.

Time is on Ukraine's side in this. This is asymmetrical warfare. Russia cannot afford to keep this up for much longer. Ukraine isn't going to just give back the weapons and say "we tried and failed".

The increasing sanctions and economic depression in Russia is getting worse . I haven't looked to see yet if Russia is selling more gold yet or not. They have to in order to prop up the Ruble so they can buy supplies they don't make (medicine, clothing, and other goods)
Meanwhile Oligarchs aren't exactly making money anymore unless they vacated Russia. And many have had their assets seized....upsetting the Plutocracy.

 

[Kruska]

The reservoirs in Crimea are full....so are the reservoirs for Zapporhizia power plant and the one that feeds the canal to Crimea.

The Zapporhizia power-plant isn't an issue in regards to this scenario. However when Russia drained (in a controlled way) the Northern Dam reservoir last year - due to pressure and gravity the Crimean reservoirs drained out - towards the Northern dam reservoir. So it does already have the same effect now again (IMO) and in Summer Crimea gets very hot and arid.

Time is on Ukraine's side in this.

Why? the more underprivileged Ukrainians die, and the more miserable their life (economic circumstances) gets - the less Ukrainians are interested in democracy, and lastly to fight for the woke community in Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities.

This is asymmetrical warfare. Russia cannot afford to keep this up for much longer.

You think that Russia isn't able to conduct asymmetrical warfare? They have been doing just that since 2014 - difference only that their "guerilla" units are known and displayed openly - e.g. the Donbas militia - and countless saboteur and informants working for the Russians in Ukraine. That Zelensky is arming and recruiting numerous Neo-Nazi factions from not just Russia but also e.g from Poland and other countries - IMO will provoke repercussions from the EU. No one in the EU want's armed Nazi gangs.

Ukraine isn't going to just give back the weapons and say "we tried and failed".

Off course not - at least presently.

The increasing sanctions and economic depression in Russia is getting worse . I haven't looked to see yet if Russia is selling more gold yet or not. They have to in order to prop up the Ruble so they can buy supplies they don't make (medicine, clothing, and other goods)

In contra to Western believes - this situation exists in Russia since hundreds of years. Do you think that some normal Russian citizen receives Western medicine? or gets a Western plaster, right down to a fancy CT-scan? or is in need for fancy clothing? The gold reserves Russia has - are not used to prop up the Rubel on the international currency exchange markets - but as an alternative currency option for direct dealings. And E.g. China and Russia deal via barter trade and not international currency.

Meanwhile Oligarchs aren't exactly making money anymore unless they vacated Russia. And many have had their assets seized....upsetting the Plutocracy.

Yes, and Oligarchs with no money (assets frozen) don't really pose a danger - do they?

 

[Litwin]

 

[Litwin]

The Zapporhizia power-plant isn't an issue in regards to this scenario. However when Russia drained (in a controlled way) the Northern Dam reservoir last year - due to pressure and gravity the Crimean reservoirs drained out - towards the Northern dam reservoir. So it does already have the same effect now again (IMO) and in Summer Crimea gets very hot and arid.

Why? the more underprivileged Ukrainians die, and the more miserable their life (economic circumstances) gets - the less Ukrainians are interested in democracy, and lastly to fight for the woke community in Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities.

You think that Russia isn't able to conduct asymmetrical warfare? They have been doing just that since 2014 - difference only that their "guerilla" units are known and displayed openly - e.g. the Donbas militia - and countless saboteur and informants working for the Russians in Ukraine. That Zelensky is arming and recruiting numerous Neo-Nazi factions from not just Russia but also e.g from Poland and other countries - IMO will provoke repercussions from the EU. No one in the EU want's armed Nazi gangs.

Off course not - at least presently.

In contra to Western believes - this situation exists in Russia since hundreds of years. Do you think that some normal Russian citizen receives Western medicine? or gets a Western plaster, right down to a fancy CT-scan? or is in need for fancy clothing? The gold reserves Russia has - are not used to prop up the Rubel on the international currency exchange markets - but as an alternative currency option for direct dealings. And E.g. China and Russia deal via barter trade and not international currency.

Yes, and Oligarchs with no money (assets frozen) don't really pose a danger - do they?

putin´s Expert who said Moscow should destroy Ukraine's dams blames Ukraine for Nova Kakhovka​

any comment ?

 

[para bellum]

So you still believe this war was unprovoked. Lol.

I know Russia was not being threatened by anyone.
I know that western leaders were desperately trying to get Putin back to the table before the invasion.
I know that the Kremlin trolls were universally claiming the warnings were a hoax right up to the day before, and then after, that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days...

When it didn't work out for you, the excuses and cope started flying. Kiev was a feint, Kharkiv was a "strategic repositioning", Kherson was a "goodwill gesture", blah blah blyat!

And of course every war crime committed by Russia is really the work of Ukrainians trying to "make Russia look bad", etc.

One thing I can say is you're predictable.

 

[para bellum]

Just stop

Now why in the world would I care what a Kremlin stooge thinks?

I think you have me mistaken for someone else...

 

[JohnDB]

The Zapporhizia power-plant isn't an issue in regards to this scenario. However when Russia drained (in a controlled way) the Northern Dam reservoir last year - due to pressure and gravity the Crimean reservoirs drained out - towards the Northern dam reservoir. So it does already have the same effect now again (IMO) and in Summer Crimea gets very hot and arid.

Why? the more underprivileged Ukrainians die, and the more miserable their life (economic circumstances) gets - the less Ukrainians are interested in democracy, and lastly to fight for the woke community in Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities.

You think that Russia isn't able to conduct asymmetrical warfare? They have been doing just that since 2014 - difference only that their "guerilla" units are known and displayed openly - e.g. the Donbas militia - and countless saboteur and informants working for the Russians in Ukraine. That Zelensky is arming and recruiting numerous Neo-Nazi factions from not just Russia but also e.g from Poland and other countries - IMO will provoke repercussions from the EU. No one in the EU want's armed Nazi gangs.

Off course not - at least presently.

In contra to Western believes - this situation exists in Russia since hundreds of years. Do you think that some normal Russian citizen receives Western medicine? or gets a Western plaster, right down to a fancy CT-scan? or is in need for fancy clothing? The gold reserves Russia has - are not used to prop up the Rubel on the international currency exchange markets - but as an alternative currency option for direct dealings. And E.g. China and Russia deal via barter trade and not international currency.

Yes, and Oligarchs with no money (assets frozen) don't really pose a danger - do they?

Most medicines and clothing comes from India. Not the USA.
Your tirade demonstrates how little you really understand economics and world trade and how Russia is going broke fast.

Asymmetrical warfare is where the large army (Russia) is too large and falls into equipment traps (like it has many times consistently already) and the smaller force utilizes compartmentalized leadership to make really important calls. They have a leadership chain but it's not like the plutocracy of Russian military where mortar fire is directed explicitly by the generals.

Sapper teams are all behind the lines and across the border now. The fires are the tattletale on this. And the call for them to all mobilize hasn't even been given. They only have been "practicing" up to this point.

Ukraine has a lot less to lose than Russia. And with the bulk of the nation's supporting Ukraine....Russia really doesn't stand a chance.

 

[para bellum]

They literally banned investigations into incidents at hydroelectrical structures in Kherson Obl. ONE WEEK ago

I saw that. Very bizarre.

Unrelated- I watched an interview with a Ukraine border guard the other day. He was stationed on a crossing to Belarus, and apparently it's kind of boring.

So for entertainment they drop potatoes from drones on the Belarussian border posts. The Belarussian guards scramble in every direction thinking it's a grenade, while the Ukes are watching on the monitor and laughing their asses off.

That's some epic trolling right there, lol.

 

[Silver Cat]

can you explain to me this : The flood is expected to subside and drain into the Black Sea within 10-11 days. So what military benefit does blowing the dam provide other than to delay a possible Ukraine assault for 2 weeks? I don't get 's logic

Because it's highly unlikely, that it were Russians who have destroyed that dam. Actually, AFU shelled it for months. And one of their possible reasons - they (Ukrainians) don't want to offence and die.