I find that getting the two of you together is like the product of two multiplicands both less than unity.
quan·ti·fi·ca·tion
/ˌkwän(t)əfiˈkāSH(ə)n/
noun
- the expression or measurement of the quantity of something.
Executive Summary of TPSB, Chapter 12: LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE: PROJECTIONS, COMMITMENTS AND IRREVERSIBILITY
Executive Summary
This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the
forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986–2005, unless otherwise stated.
Scenarios, Ensembles and Uncertainties
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) presents an unprecedented level of information on which to base projections including new Earth System Models with a more complete representation of forcings, new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and more output available for analysis. The four RCP scenarios used in CMIP5 lead to a total radiative forcing (RF) at 2100 that spans a wider range than that estimated for the three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), RCP2.6 being almost 2 W m–2 lower than SRES B1 by 2100. The magnitude of future aerosol forcing decreases more rapidly in RCP scenarios, reaching lower values than in SRES scenarios through the 21st century. Carbon dioxide (CO2) represents about 80 to 90% of the total anthropogenic forcing in all RCP scenarios through the 21st century. The ensemble mean total effective RFs at 2100 for CMIP5 concentration-driven projections are 2.2, 3.8, 4.8 and 7.6 W m–2 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 respectively, relative to about 1850, and are close to corresponding Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)-based estimates
New experiments and studies have continued to work towards a more complete and rigorous characterization of the uncertainties in long-term projections, but the magnitude of the uncertainties has not changed significantly since AR4. There is overall consistency between the projections based on CMIP3 and CMIP5, for both large-scale patterns and magnitudes of change. Differences in global temperature projections are largely attributable to a change in scenarios. Model agreement and confidence in projections depend on the variable and spatial and temporal averaging. The well-established stability of large-scale geographical patterns of change during a transient experiment remains valid in the CMIP5 models, thus justifying pattern scaling to approximate changes across time and scenarios under such experiments. Limitations remain when pattern scaling is applied to strong mitigation scenarios, to scenarios where localized forcing (e.g., aerosols) are significant and vary in time and for variables other than average temperature and precipitation.