Sandy and global climate change

[Luddly Neddite]

In Hurricane Sandy's Fury, The Fingerprint Of Climate Change

As it says, the evidence is stunning.

Unless you're an ignorant rw flat earther.

 

[flacaltenn]

Stunning all right. That the high priests of panic waited this long..

Except that there's no scientific evidence that the occurence of -- or severity of -- hurricanes has increased in 20 years. Go find me a statement from NOAA or the National Hurricane Center that contradicts my statement.

Just as the claims from the tornado outbreak that found CITY CENTERS instead of cow pastures, you zealots are acting like a isolated tribe of natives selecting a virgin for sacrifice. This hurricane got steered into a high density area. NOT BY an increase of 1degC in your lifetime, but by quirks in the Jet Stream and the screwy pressure patterns present at this time of the season..

Go ahead --- make the case that 1degC over 40 yrs is why folks are suffering thru a hurricane right now. Show me the science..

 

[Old Rocks]

I will argue these points after the storm is done. For now, just watching the scope of this unfold, and hoping for the best for everyone that is involved.

 

[emptystep]

There is the fundamental question of how to rebuild. I think that putting everything back the way it was, while difficult in itself, will not be good enough. The people of this planet have changed the weather and therefore will have to change the way we are prepared for it.

 

[Katzndogz]

Global warming caused the blast of arctic air that turned Sandy from a Cat 1, weak weather system into a superstorm.

Sure.

 

[Ernie S.]

OP does not understand the difference between weather and climate. Not surprising, since he doesn't understand the difference between disagreement and racism, either.

 

[Rat in the Hat]

Global warming caused the blast of arctic air that turned Sandy from a Cat 1, weak weather system into a superstorm.

Sure.

 

[TNHarley]

Al Gore is a dipshit

 

[whitehall]

Who do we blame for the former worst hurricane to hit NYC in the early 1800's? The British?


"Never let a crisis go to waste"....Rahm Emanuel

 

[Bigfoot]

The "weather" is never caused by climate change unless it supports warming ~rolleyes~

 

[Old Rocks]

OK. First, what happened. A very large Cat 1 hurricane moved north, riding and gaining energy from the Gulf Stream waters. Waters that are 2 degrees warmer than they were a century ago. There was a blocking high over Greenland that steered the storm into the North East.

At this same time, there were two cold storms, one coming from the west, one from the north. And then there was a full moon, with very high tides.

Now a Tropical storm gets it's energy from the warm water. But a land cylclonic storm gets it's energy from temperature differential. The blending of the three storms as Sandy came onshore created a monster storm, a tropical storm with a blizzard on it's western margin.

While the warming of the ocean undoubtedly contributed to the size and duration of Sandy, the other factors were really quite independent of global warming. Storms have come from the west and north before and blended, creating a larger storm. Full moons routinely have high tides. For all four factors to come together as they did, just a real bad run of luck. Kind of like throwing 4 snake eyes in a row.

The real joker in this is that fact that this Cat 1 hurricane had the lowest pressure reading of any ever recorded that far north. The meteorologists are going to be studying that for a long time.

Yes, global warming had a minor role in this storm, but the primary factor was just plain lousy luck.

 

[daveman]

In Hurricane Sandy's Fury, The Fingerprint Of Climate Change

As it says, the evidence is stunning.

Unless you're an ignorant rw flat earther.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/envir...ather-events-not-vainly-try-to-stop-them.html

 

[westwall]

In Hurricane Sandy's Fury, The Fingerprint Of Climate Change

As it says, the evidence is stunning.

Unless you're an ignorant rw flat earther.

I guess all those storms that happened before the CO2 levels rose don't count. Right religious fanatic?

 

[daveman]

In Hurricane Sandy's Fury, The Fingerprint Of Climate Change

As it says, the evidence is stunning.

Unless you're an ignorant rw flat earther.

I guess all those storms that happened before the CO2 levels rose don't count. Right religious fanatic?

The US Has Had 285 Hurricane Strikes Since 1850 | Real Science

The US has always been vulnerable to hurricanes. Eighty-six percent of US hurricane strikes occurred with CO2 below Hansen’s safe level of 350 PPM.

 

[polarbear]

OK. First, what happened. A very large Cat 1 hurricane moved north, riding and gaining energy from the Gulf Stream waters. Waters that are 2 degrees warmer than they were a century ago. There was a blocking high over Greenland that steered the storm into the North East.

At this same time, there were two cold storms, one coming from the west, one from the north. And then there was a full moon, with very high tides.

Now a Tropical storm gets it's energy from the warm water. But a land cylclonic storm gets it's energy from temperature differential. The blending of the three storms as Sandy came onshore created a monster storm, a tropical storm with a blizzard on it's western margin.

While the warming of the ocean undoubtedly contributed to the size and duration of Sandy, the other factors were really quite independent of global warming. Storms have come from the west and north before and blended, creating a larger storm. Full moons routinely have high tides. For all four factors to come together as they did, just a real bad run of luck. Kind of like throwing 4 snake eyes in a row.

The real joker in this is that fact that this Cat 1 hurricane had the lowest pressure reading of any ever recorded that far north. The meteorologists are going to be studying that for a long time.

Yes, global warming had a minor role in this storm, but the primary factor was just plain lousy luck.

That is a correct analysis and the only 2 things I want to add or elaborate on are 1.):

Waters that are 2 degrees warmer than they were a century ago.

and 2.) The storm surge
To 1.) As You already pointed out Sandy was amplified by the cold front which moved in from Canada. That`s the cold front I`ve been sitting under since September and beginning October we already had snow....since about 10 years winter in Central Canada has been starting a bit sooner and hanging in a bit longer...(which is not the case for Eastern Canada) Environment Canada points out that happens when the Atlantic decadal cycle and the Pacific decadal cycle is such that the Pacific decadal cycle is at a low while the Atlantic decadal cycle is at a high as far as average water temperatures are concerned.
Sandy could have been much worse had it carried more moisture but thank God it did not as the tail end of Sandy showed.
Air shrinks only at a rate of 1/273 rd. per degree temperature drop if it`s dry. But for every mole H2O vapor 22.4 liters of water vapor collapse to a volume of only 18 cubic centimeters...that is a "shrinkage" factor of 1244 and determines how powerful such a storm can be.
I was watching Sandy on the Weather Channel because the sensationalism on the other news channels disgusted me, knowing what people in the affected area are going through. I wish I had recorded the data which very clearly showed how "dry" Sandy was when compared to Katrina or the other Hurricanes.

2.) New York`s Long Island geographic orientation is another "snake eye" which has been rolled in this unfortunate series of events.
Sandy`s eye was in the worst possible track which resulted that the counter clockwise winds around the eye just happened to blow into the
Long Island Sound.
If Sandy`s eye had been positioned just a bit farther North it would have counteracted the high tide.
But it was not. That did not matter to Michael Moore who was given the opportunity by CNN the next day to make cynical comments like "get used to it there is more to come"....in the context of climate change and if the Republicans win this election. I`m glad to see that people who write in this forum are a lot more concerned about their fellow Americans in the affected area rather than trying to score points like Michael Moore. When CNN announced that Michael Moore was going to be interviewed I was wondering if he`ld be asked about the latest hate video "MoveOn.org" he helped to produce:
Michael Moore's Latest Hate Filled Video Rant | WaznmentobeWaznmentobe

But knew that this was not going to happen,...not on CNN or MSNBC etc.
What is all the buzz about "voter suppression" anyway?
I can`t understand it. In Canada there is no way that anybody could drop a ballot into the box without the proper I.D. and nobody here calls that "voter suppression" when people who don`t have proof of citizenship can`t vote.

 

[daveman]

Roger Pielke: Hurricanes and Human Choice - WSJ.com

But to call Sandy a harbinger of a "new normal," in which unprecedented weather events cause unprecedented destruction, would be wrong. This historic storm should remind us that planet Earth is a dangerous place, where extreme events are commonplace and disasters are to be expected. In the proper context, Sandy is less an example of how bad things can get than a reminder that they could be much worse.

In studying hurricanes, we can make rough comparisons over time by adjusting past losses to account for inflation and the growth of coastal communities. If Sandy causes $20 billion in damage (in 2012 dollars), it would rank as the 17th most damaging hurricane or tropical storm (out of 242) to hit the U.S. since 1900—a significant event, but not close to the top 10. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 tops the list (according to estimates by the catastrophe-insurance provider ICAT), as it would cause $180 billion in damage if it were to strike today. Hurricane Katrina ranks fourth at $85 billion.

To put things into even starker perspective, consider that from August 1954 through August 1955, the East Coast saw three different storms make landfall—Carol, Hazel and Diane—that in 2012 each would have caused about twice as much damage as Sandy.

While it's hardly mentioned in the media, the U.S. is currently in an extended and intense hurricane "drought." The last Category 3 or stronger storm to make landfall was Wilma in 2005. The more than seven years since then is the longest such span in over a century.

Flood damage has decreased as a proportion of the economy since reliable records were first kept by the National Weather Service in the 1930s, and there is no evidence of increasing extreme river floods. Historic tornado damage (adjusted for changing levels of development) has decreased since 1950, paralleling a dramatic reduction in casualties. Although the tragic impacts of tornadoes in 2011 (including 553 confirmed deaths) were comparable only to those of 1953 and 1964, such tornado impacts were far more common in the first half of the 20th century.​

 

[daveman]

Hurricane Sandy’s ‘Unprecedented’ Storm Surge | Watts Up With That?

Funny thing… Hurricane Sandy’s unprecedented storm surge was likely surpassed in the New England hurricanes of 1635 and 1638. From 1635 through 1954, New England was hit by at least five hurricanes producing greater than 3 m storm surges in New England. Analysis of sediment cores led to the conclusion “that at least seven hurricanes of intensity sufficient to produce storm surge capable of overtopping the barrier beach (>3 m) at Succotash Marsh have made landfall in southern New England in the past 700 yr.” All seven of those storms occurred prior to 1960.

--

Even funnier thing… The 1635 and 1638 hurricanes occurred before Al Gore invented global warming…

--

Even more funny thing… The 1600′s were the coldest century of the last two millennia…

--

But the funniest thing is that the 1600′s were possibly the coldest century of the Holocene since the 8.2 KYA Cooling Event…

--

Disclaimer: I’m not implying that Hurricane (AKA post-tropical cyclone) Sandy or its devastating effects on millions of people are funny. I’m only saying that efforts to link this storm to global warming are [crazy smilie].​

So, it looks like the global warmercoolering fear-mongers are full of crap, like usual.

 

[Old Rocks]

OK. First, what happened. A very large Cat 1 hurricane moved north, riding and gaining energy from the Gulf Stream waters. Waters that are 2 degrees warmer than they were a century ago. There was a blocking high over Greenland that steered the storm into the North East.

At this same time, there were two cold storms, one coming from the west, one from the north. And then there was a full moon, with very high tides.

Now a Tropical storm gets it's energy from the warm water. But a land cylclonic storm gets it's energy from temperature differential. The blending of the three storms as Sandy came onshore created a monster storm, a tropical storm with a blizzard on it's western margin.

While the warming of the ocean undoubtedly contributed to the size and duration of Sandy, the other factors were really quite independent of global warming. Storms have come from the west and north before and blended, creating a larger storm. Full moons routinely have high tides. For all four factors to come together as they did, just a real bad run of luck. Kind of like throwing 4 snake eyes in a row.

The real joker in this is that fact that this Cat 1 hurricane had the lowest pressure reading of any ever recorded that far north. The meteorologists are going to be studying that for a long time.

Yes, global warming had a minor role in this storm, but the primary factor was just plain lousy luck.

That is a correct analysis and the only 2 things I want to add or elaborate on are 1.):

Waters that are 2 degrees warmer than they were a century ago.

and 2.) The storm surge
To 1.) As You already pointed out Sandy was amplified by the cold front which moved in from Canada. That`s the cold front I`ve been sitting under since September and beginning October we already had snow....since about 10 years winter in Central Canada has been starting a bit sooner and hanging in a bit longer...(which is not the case for Eastern Canada) Environment Canada points out that happens when the Atlantic decadal cycle and the Pacific decadal cycle is such that the Pacific decadal cycle is at a low while the Atlantic decadal cycle is at a high as far as average water temperatures are concerned.
Sandy could have been much worse had it carried more moisture but thank God it did not as the tail end of Sandy showed.
Air shrinks only at a rate of 1/273 rd. per degree temperature drop if it`s dry. But for every mole H2O vapor 22.4 liters of water vapor collapse to a volume of only 18 cubic centimeters...that is a "shrinkage" factor of 1244 and determines how powerful such a storm can be.
I was watching Sandy on the Weather Channel because the sensationalism on the other news channels disgusted me, knowing what people in the affected area are going through. I wish I had recorded the data which very clearly showed how "dry" Sandy was when compared to Katrina or the other Hurricanes.

2.) New York`s Long Island geographic orientation is another "snake eye" which has been rolled in this unfortunate series of events.
Sandy`s eye was in the worst possible track which resulted that the counter clockwise winds around the eye just happened to blow into the
Long Island Sound.
If Sandy`s eye had been positioned just a bit farther North it would have counteracted the high tide.
But it was not. That did not matter to Michael Moore who was given the opportunity by CNN the next day to make cynical comments like "get used to it there is more to come"....in the context of climate change and if the Republicans win this election. I`m glad to see that people who write in this forum are a lot more concerned about their fellow Americans in the affected area rather than trying to score points like Michael Moore. When CNN announced that Michael Moore was going to be interviewed I was wondering if he`ld be asked about the latest hate video "MoveOn.org" he helped to produce:
Michael Moore's Latest Hate Filled Video Rant | WaznmentobeWaznmentobe

But knew that this was not going to happen,...not on CNN or MSNBC etc.
What is all the buzz about "voter suppression" anyway?
I can`t understand it. In Canada there is no way that anybody could drop a ballot into the box without the proper I.D. and nobody here calls that "voter suppression" when people who don`t have proof of citizenship can`t vote.

Here in the states we have a really horrible history of using things like voter id, ect. to deny minority citizens, and even citizens whose political views are not in the mainstream, the right to vote. And both parties have been guilty of this at various times in our history.

Your comments on the geography of the area contributing to Sandy's impact was especially pertinent, and well understood by those who have done any studying of the big quake on this coast of 29Jan1700. In the Straight of Juan de Fuca, there are places that driftwood from that quake can be found as high as 500 ft above sea level in the hills facing the Straight. When you have a surge of water, whether from a tsunami or a storm, bottom and shore configuration is all important. As well as the direction of the flow. Hilo, Hawaii.

 

[kwc57]

In Hurricane Sandy's Fury, The Fingerprint Of Climate Change

As it says, the evidence is stunning.

Unless you're an ignorant rw flat earther.

There's a sucker born every minute - PT Barnum

 

[California Girl]

If people want others to take climate change seriously, there is a very easy answer.... stop politicizing it. Fucking watermelons.