Looking at 270towin, the same three states will decide the election in 2016...Virginia, Ohio, Florida.
Virginia, Ohio, and Florida didn't decide either the 2008 or 2012 elections. The breaking point was actually Colorado based on the percentage of the win in both elections.
From the looks of it I would say Colorado is out the window for the GOP with Immigration Reform going the way it is now.
If you give Hillary/Unnamed Democratic Nominee all of Obama's states, the GOP needs to poach 64 electoral votes.
Florida with 29 votes is a must in any scenario. The other 35 become really problematic mathematically because it means winning 3-4 other states. @
Missourian is partially correct but VA (13), OH (18), and FL (29) get you only 60. If you don't win those 3, it's over. But it may be over anyway.
The other 4 are problematic because the most likely culprits for the GOP are IA--hard to campaign there the closer you get to the wire and it has only gone red once since 1988 (in 2004 during a war). Obama carried it by 6%.
Iowa Presidential Election Voting History
You pretty much summed up Colorado's fate.
Add New Mexico to that tally.
It's a pretty dismal map for the GOP. I would wager that even VA goes blue in 2016. At some point, the GOP nominee will have said something about cutting the bloated federal government--many of that bloat live in VA.