Statistikhengst
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(Photo Montage source: AP)
Republicans brace for 2016 free-for-all - Maggie Haberman and Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com
The above link is a pretty good write-up about a possibly very crowded GOP field in 2016.
I've read the article twice, but will quote very little of it. Rather, I let you all quote what you think is worth discussing and let's have at it.
Here's one quote that could be a good start, I think:
The sprawling, kaleidoscope-like field that’s forming is already prompting Republican presidential hopefuls to knock their likely rivals privately and, at times, publicly. The fact that several candidates’ prospects hinge in part on whether others run only exacerbates that dynamic. Ultimately, the large pack won’t be whittled for many months: Republicans have no idea who will end up running, and insiders don’t expect the field will gel significantly until at least the spring of next year.
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My personal take is that a crowded field CAN be a positive thing and historically, the opposition party generally has a large field (at least at the onset) during a re-election year or an open election year.
See:
Republicans 1940 (10 candidates, 6 ballots), 1944 (6 major candidates, including Douglas McArthur), 1948 (3-ballot convention)
Democrats 1960 (4 major candidates, 9 on the ballot, 1st ballot win for Kennedy)
Democrats 1968 (4 major candidates, overshadowed by RFK's assassination)
Democrats 1972
Democrats and Republicans 1976 (the GOP, less so)
Democrats 1984
Democrats 1988
Democrats 1992
Republicans 1996
Republicans 2000 (but the field cleared pretty quickly)
Democrats 2004 (but the field cleared pretty quickly)
Republicans 2012 (the largest GOP field in quite a while)
It's my contention that it's not the size of the field, but the chaos that can happen at the Convention, that is the deciding factor.
The 1964 RNC and the 1972 DNC will both probably go down in history as the most disastrous conventions in modern times for their respective parties. In 1972, McGovern was not officially nominated until 2 or 3 in the morning, long after Americans went to bed. In 1976, in a procedural move, then-candidate Ronald Reagan forced a floor-vote on a rules change to decide whether incumbent President Gerald Ford should be forced to announce his running-mate before the actual balloting for the presidential nominee to begin, a vote that took quite a while and gave the convention the "feel" of a second-ballot nomination. Reagan has already selected northern liberal Republican Schweiker (R-PA) to be his running make, in the hopes of picking up the last remaining undecided delegates. This, similarly to 1976, caused the ballot for the presidential nominee to go late into the night, although not as late as in 1972 for the Democrats.
Knowing what a media event such conventions are, they are highly scripted these days and the slightest error can cause hardship for that party, especially in a potentially close election.
So, my view is that a large GOP field is healthy for that party's electorate. Let the GOP voters see who is interesting in the run and then let them make up their minds.
The downside, of course, is financial. Large fields of candidates means more people vying for $$ to run campaigns and a general election warchest that is not yet filled.
So, what say you?