Repub. Candidates Have Large Leads: VA and NJ

[Tech_Esq]

Is the bloom off the rose?

In BOTH the Virginia and, more surprisingly, the New Jersey Governors races (election this November) the Republican candidates are ahead by 10 and 15 points respectively.

While the media is pelting us with "Republicans are the party of 'NO'" and Obama's overwhelming popularity, why are these candidates seeing such amazing success?

In NJ, a newcomer is challenging an incumbent who should have an advantage. In Virginia, the current governor is also the Chair of the DNC. A former chair, Terry McAuliffe is on the ballot for the Dems, but he's 10 points down to a Republican and not polling above 35%.

Why are the Dems stumbling at the height of their success?

 

[Tech_Esq]

Oooops, this should be moved to Politics.

 

[Amanda]

This simply isn't possible, the GOP is doomed. I know it's true because there's a new thread here everyday that says so.

Isn't wishful thinking delightful?

 

[jillian]

Is the bloom off the rose?

In BOTH the Virginia and, more surprisingly, the New Jersey Governors races (election this November) the Republican candidates are ahead by 10 and 15 points respectively.

While the media is pelting us with "Republicans are the party of 'NO'" and Obama's overwhelming popularity, why are these candidates seeing such amazing success?

In NJ, a newcomer is challenging an incumbent who should have an advantage. In Virginia, the current governor is also the Chair of the DNC. A former chair, Terry McAuliffe is on the ballot for the Dems, but he's 10 points down to a Republican and not polling above 35%.

Why are the Dems stumbling at the height of their success?

Actually, they aren't.... you're looking at a couple of states in a vacuum.

Nate Silver, my favorite brilliant nerd, made this observation:

From among the 12 data points that are common to all three surveys -- these are Bob Riley of Alabama, Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, Chet Culver of Iowa, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Steve Beshear of Kentucky, Pawlenty, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, David Paterson of New York, Ted Kulongoski or Oregon, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Christine Gregoire of Washington, and Jim Doyle of Wisconsin -- the average approval rating has dropped from 50 percent a year ago and 54 percent six months ago to just 41 percent currently. All of these governors but Beshear have a lower approval score than they did a year earlier (although Jay Nixon of Missouri, who was elected in November, is doing significantly better than predecessor Matt Blunt).

Certainly, a number of these governors have had extraneous circumstances which may be negatively impacting their their ratings. David Paterson lost New Yorkers with his confused handling of naming a replacement for Hillary Clinton. Sebelius -- not without controversy -- just became a member of Obama's cabinet. Richardson was supposed to have been too, but flunked his vetting process. Kaine -- while not giving up his day job -- has become head of the DNC. Pawlenty has had the Franken affair to deal with (although, certainly, with this extra bit of context, it is much harder to attribute the decline in his approval to his handling of the recount).

Still, the decline appears to be widespread enough that excuses like this just won't cut it -- America is unhappy with their governors. And why shouldn't they be, when nearly every state has a budget deficit, and governors -- unable to raise revenue as the Federal Government does through deficit spending -- are faced with the Hobson's choice of either having to raise taxes or cut essential services during a recession?

With Democrats controlling 28 of 50 statehouses, Republicans would seem to be in a good position to gain back ground in 2010. Many states, besides, even under better times, have a tendency to alternate the party they like seeing elected to the governor's mansion.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: governor

And lets not forget that Crist is probably going to want to head to the Senate so the Florida governorship will be up for graps... and the governator is going to be done with his stint in Cali.

Interesting times.... and almost everything depends on what happens with the economy over the next year.

 

[Tech_Esq]

Is the bloom off the rose?

In BOTH the Virginia and, more surprisingly, the New Jersey Governors races (election this November) the Republican candidates are ahead by 10 and 15 points respectively.

While the media is pelting us with "Republicans are the party of 'NO'" and Obama's overwhelming popularity, why are these candidates seeing such amazing success?

In NJ, a newcomer is challenging an incumbent who should have an advantage. In Virginia, the current governor is also the Chair of the DNC. A former chair, Terry McAuliffe is on the ballot for the Dems, but he's 10 points down to a Republican and not polling above 35%.

Why are the Dems stumbling at the height of their success?

Actually, they aren't.... you're looking at a couple of states in a vacuum.

Nate Silver, my favorite brilliant nerd, made this observation:

From among the 12 data points that are common to all three surveys -- these are Bob Riley of Alabama, Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, Chet Culver of Iowa, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Steve Beshear of Kentucky, Pawlenty, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, David Paterson of New York, Ted Kulongoski or Oregon, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Christine Gregoire of Washington, and Jim Doyle of Wisconsin -- the average approval rating has dropped from 50 percent a year ago and 54 percent six months ago to just 41 percent currently. All of these governors but Beshear have a lower approval score than they did a year earlier (although Jay Nixon of Missouri, who was elected in November, is doing significantly better than predecessor Matt Blunt).

Certainly, a number of these governors have had extraneous circumstances which may be negatively impacting their their ratings. David Paterson lost New Yorkers with his confused handling of naming a replacement for Hillary Clinton. Sebelius -- not without controversy -- just became a member of Obama's cabinet. Richardson was supposed to have been too, but flunked his vetting process. Kaine -- while not giving up his day job -- has become head of the DNC. Pawlenty has had the Franken affair to deal with (although, certainly, with this extra bit of context, it is much harder to attribute the decline in his approval to his handling of the recount).

Still, the decline appears to be widespread enough that excuses like this just won't cut it -- America is unhappy with their governors. And why shouldn't they be, when nearly every state has a budget deficit, and governors -- unable to raise revenue as the Federal Government does through deficit spending -- are faced with the Hobson's choice of either having to raise taxes or cut essential services during a recession?

With Democrats controlling 28 of 50 statehouses, Republicans would seem to be in a good position to gain back ground in 2010. Many states, besides, even under better times, have a tendency to alternate the party they like seeing elected to the governor's mansion.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: governor

And lets not forget that Crist is probably going to want to head to the Senate so the Florida governorship will be up for graps... and the governator is going to be done with his stint in Cali.

Interesting times.... and almost everything depends on what happens with the economy over the next year.

Actually, considering he is a Dem, Kaine hasn't done too bad in handling the budget shortfall in VA. Some of his priorities are screwed up, but I would probably think that if he was a Repub. too. He has a Repub. House to deal with, so maybe that's part of it. He's on a fairly short leash and the Gov. of VA is a fairly weak post being term limited to one term.

It think the point is though, that these elections are occurring in 6 months. So, the economy won't have much time to recover. While some things may be looking up, the jobs are still likely to be in the crapper.

The anti-incumbent feeling may explain NJ though. Corzine is taking it in the shorts over the budget issue and his 90 MPH incident. Being tied to Goldman probably doesn't help him right now either.

 

[Kalam]

Ugh. McDonnell is a holy-rolling nutbag. I'm not sure if any of the Dems are better, though; I'll need to read more about them.

 

[Tech_Esq]

Ugh. McDonnell is a holy-rolling nutbag. I'm not sure if any of the Dems are better, though; I'll need to read more about them.

Is he? You have any info on that?

I didn't see any material on his site that led me to that conclusion. (Other than an endorsement from Huckabee).

 

[Kalam]

Ugh. McDonnell is a holy-rolling nutbag. I'm not sure if any of the Dems are better, though; I'll need to read more about them.

Is he? You have any info on that?

I didn't see any material on his site that led me to that conclusion. (Other than an endorsement from Huckabee).

It's an assumption I base on his palling around with Pat Robertson. I didn't see anything on his site about it either, I think it focuses on discussing his accomplishments more than it does his political positions.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk[/ame]

 

[jillian]

Actually, considering he is a Dem, Kaine hasn't done too bad in handling the budget shortfall in VA. Some of his priorities are screwed up, but I would probably think that if he was a Repub. too. He has a Repub. House to deal with, so maybe that's part of it. He's on a fairly short leash and the Gov. of VA is a fairly weak post being term limited to one term.

It think the point is though, that these elections are occurring in 6 months. So, the economy won't have much time to recover. While some things may be looking up, the jobs are still likely to be in the crapper.

The anti-incumbent feeling may explain NJ though. Corzine is taking it in the shorts over the budget issue and his 90 MPH incident. Being tied to Goldman probably doesn't help him right now either.

It seems in general that there's huge anti-incumbant feeling when it comes to governors. And, let's not forget, Pawlenty is going to have massive problems in Michigan because he won't certify the results of the senate election. I read an article about him "taking one for the team".

well, i suspect it will also come down to does the gov seem like part of the solution or part of the problem.

 

[Tech_Esq]

Ugh. McDonnell is a holy-rolling nutbag. I'm not sure if any of the Dems are better, though; I'll need to read more about them.

Is he? You have any info on that?

I didn't see any material on his site that led me to that conclusion. (Other than an endorsement from Huckabee).

It's an assumption I base on his palling around with Pat Robertson. I didn't see anything on his site about it either, I think it focuses on discussing his accomplishments more than it does his political positions.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk[/ame]

If you are a Repub. in VA running for state-wide office, you are going to have to pal around with Pat. Although he's a national figure, his organization is based in VA. I view that like an endorsement from Huckabee....pro forma unless it's shown not to be.

 

[Tech_Esq]

Actually, considering he is a Dem, Kaine hasn't done too bad in handling the budget shortfall in VA. Some of his priorities are screwed up, but I would probably think that if he was a Repub. too. He has a Repub. House to deal with, so maybe that's part of it. He's on a fairly short leash and the Gov. of VA is a fairly weak post being term limited to one term.

It think the point is though, that these elections are occurring in 6 months. So, the economy won't have much time to recover. While some things may be looking up, the jobs are still likely to be in the crapper.

The anti-incumbent feeling may explain NJ though. Corzine is taking it in the shorts over the budget issue and his 90 MPH incident. Being tied to Goldman probably doesn't help him right now either.

It seems in general that there's huge anti-incumbant feeling when it comes to governors. And, let's not forget, Pawlenty is going to have massive problems in Michigan because he won't certify the results of the senate election. I read an article about him "taking one for the team".

well, i suspect it will also come down to does the gov seem like part of the solution or part of the problem.

Minnesota, but point taken. He may, but I've given up trying to figure out Minnesota voters. All I can say is that no state has more to be ashamed of, for who they elect, than Minnesota voters. That's a general comment not directed at any specific person or time period.

I think Pawlenty will have enough time to recover if whatever he does happens this summer. Remember G.H.W. Bush had a 92% approval rating in the summer 1991. Fourteen months later he was in the crapper. A year is a lifetime in politics.

 

[jillian]

Actually, considering he is a Dem, Kaine hasn't done too bad in handling the budget shortfall in VA. Some of his priorities are screwed up, but I would probably think that if he was a Repub. too. He has a Repub. House to deal with, so maybe that's part of it. He's on a fairly short leash and the Gov. of VA is a fairly weak post being term limited to one term.

It think the point is though, that these elections are occurring in 6 months. So, the economy won't have much time to recover. While some things may be looking up, the jobs are still likely to be in the crapper.

The anti-incumbent feeling may explain NJ though. Corzine is taking it in the shorts over the budget issue and his 90 MPH incident. Being tied to Goldman probably doesn't help him right now either.

It seems in general that there's huge anti-incumbant feeling when it comes to governors. And, let's not forget, Pawlenty is going to have massive problems in Michigan because he won't certify the results of the senate election. I read an article about him "taking one for the team".

well, i suspect it will also come down to does the gov seem like part of the solution or part of the problem.

Minnesota, but point taken. He may, but I've given up trying to figure out Minnesota voters. All I can say is that no state has more to be ashamed of, for who they elect, than Minnesota voters. That's a general comment not directed at any specific person or time period.

I think Pawlenty will have enough time to recover if whatever he does happens this summer. Remember G.H.W. Bush had a 92% approval rating in the summer 1991. Fourteen months later he was in the crapper. A year is a lifetime in politics.

d'oh! lol.. of course Minnesota.thanks. sometimes my fingers type faster than my brain works.

As you say, anything can happen. But your inquiry was interesting. I just thought it limited itself to blue states and was ignroing the anti-incumbant sentiment in many states vis a vis the governorships.

 

[Tech_Esq]

It seems in general that there's huge anti-incumbant feeling when it comes to governors. And, let's not forget, Pawlenty is going to have massive problems in Michigan because he won't certify the results of the senate election. I read an article about him "taking one for the team".

well, i suspect it will also come down to does the gov seem like part of the solution or part of the problem.

Minnesota, but point taken. He may, but I've given up trying to figure out Minnesota voters. All I can say is that no state has more to be ashamed of, for who they elect, than Minnesota voters. That's a general comment not directed at any specific person or time period.

I think Pawlenty will have enough time to recover if whatever he does happens this summer. Remember G.H.W. Bush had a 92% approval rating in the summer 1991. Fourteen months later he was in the crapper. A year is a lifetime in politics.

d'oh! lol.. of course Minnesota.thanks. sometimes my fingers type faster than my brain works.

As you say, anything can happen. But your inquiry was interesting. I just thought it limited itself to blue states and was ignroing the anti-incumbant sentiment in many states vis a vis the governorships.

I wasn't focused on the blue state/red state aspect. I was looking more at the states that are up this fall. I know Virginia is generally considered a bell-weather for what will happen in the off-year election. We've elected Dems here the past two times (Warner and Kaine), and we saw what happened in those off-year elections.

The poli sci answer is that the president's party loses seats in the off-year election. We'll have to see first if the bell-weathers hold true to that and then if the conventional wisdom holds in 2010. If it does hold, will it be a desire for divided government again (ala Clinton in 1994) or will it be a bare diminution of seats? But, first things first. Virginia and New Jersey.

 

[Xenophon]

Haven't seen a GoP gov in jersey in years, i think Whitman was the last, and that was almost a decade ago.

Corzine is a jerk's jerk, even as the state bled money he wanted to spend on things not normally done by states (like medical research).

The big problem is, the GoP has yet to find anyone to run that people will vote for.

The best gov I can recall Jersey having was Tom Kean years and years ago.

New York may see a GoP gov as Rudy Guliani is rumored to be interested in the job.

 

[DamnYankee]

The anti-incumbent feeling may explain NJ though. Corzine is taking it in the shorts over the budget issue and his 90 MPH incident. Being tied to Goldman probably doesn't help him right now either.

Probably more so the budget than anything else, and the fact that this isn't as liberal a state as the representation might indicate. Corzine also took a hit on the handling of the State's pension funds, allowing municipalities to "defer" their share of payments when the market was flying high. Then, when it took a hit, and the municipalities needed to pony up, there was a lot of taxpayers screaming. Now logical people would ask, what did my municipality do with the appropriated funds if they didn't expend them on the government employee pensions?

There's also been a number of notable cases of Democratic corruption here, and Christie, being the U. S. Attorney appointed to the District of Newark, has been ruthless (not that he's been blind when it comes to party). I believe that has a lot to do with his "popularity". If you want to know what's going on here, try this:
All politics at NJPolitics.com - Politics in NJ

 

[jillian]

Haven't seen a GoP gov in jersey in years, i think Whitman was the last, and that was almost a decade ago.

Corzine is a jerk's jerk, even as the state bled money he wanted to spend on things not normally done by states (like medical research).

The big problem is, the GoP has yet to find anyone to run that people will vote for.

The best gov I can recall Jersey having was Tom Kean years and years ago.

New York may see a GoP gov as Rudy Guliani is rumored to be interested in the job.

I don't know if Corzine's a jerk. I think he has a tone-deafness in dealing with his state that perhaps doesn't relate to normal people.

I don't think Giuliani will be the next gov of ny. I think it will probably be Andrew Cuomo who is polling about 40 points ahead of paterson right now, I believe.

But time will tell...

 

[DamnYankee]

Haven't seen a GoP gov in jersey in years, i think Whitman was the last, and that was almost a decade ago.

Corzine is a jerk's jerk, even as the state bled money he wanted to spend on things not normally done by states (like medical research).

The big problem is, the GoP has yet to find anyone to run that people will vote for.

The best gov I can recall Jersey having was Tom Kean years and years ago.

New York may see a GoP gov as Rudy Guliani is rumored to be interested in the job.

Kean absolutely the best. His son, junior, is in the State Senate. And, he has endorsed Christie and is the honorary chairman of his campaign.
Former Gov. Tom Kean endorses Chris Christie - NJ.com

 

[Xenophon]

I don't know if Corzine's a jerk. I think he has a tone-deafness in dealing with his state that perhaps doesn't relate to normal people.

I don't think Giuliani will be the next gov of ny. I think it will probably be Andrew Cuomo who is polling about 40 points ahead of paterson right now, I believe.

But time will tell...

Corzine is indeed a jerk, remember when he nearly killed himself trying to interject himself into that Imus thing a few years ago?

I like Andrew a lot more then i ever liked his old man, either him or Rudy is fine with me.

 

[Xenophon]

Kean absolutely the best. His son, junior, is in the State Senate. And, he has endorsed Christie and is the honorary chairman of his campaign.
Former Gov. Tom Kean endorses Chris Christie - NJ.com

Kean was always a classy guy, when i was young Jersey was something of a punchline to a joke, Kean was the first gov i remember actually making teh state attractive to outsiders.

 

[Toro]

And lets not forget that Crist is probably going to want to head to the Senate so the Florida governorship will be up for graps.

The leading candidate to replace Crist will be Alex Sink, a Democrat, and the current CFO of the state.