The FEC passed on recommending Trump be tried for election law violations because the vote was a tie, 2 democrats voted to proceed and 2 republicans disagreed. The tie breaker was a republican who abstained. The report from the investigation committee indicated that Trump could be charged with election fraud. That report will certainly be in Bragg’s hands at at the trial.
If the payoffs would have existed irrespective of the campaign, it’s not a campaign law violation. However, Cohen has said that the payoffs definably were election related. If the jury believes Cohen, who has been known to lie under oath, it is very likely that Trump would be convicted provided he is actually charged. Even if he is not charged, Bragg is still going have to convict the jury that Trump is guilty of election fraud in order for the falsifying business records charge to be treated as a felony unless comes up with another violations.
IMHO, I think a guilty verdict as a felony is unlikely based on what we now. He will likely be found guilty of falsifying business records but without another connected crime it will be a misdemeanor. Regardless of what happens he is not going to jail, he will still be able to run for president, and his supporters will careless weather he is a convicted felon or not.