POLL: Open the economy up and go back to work - Stay home and shutdown

[colfax_m]

What has been pointed out many times, that you refuse to acknowledge, is that the flu kills more people every year than this virus ever will.

How can you make that statement with any degree of certainty?

the CDC stats support that statement. Do you believe them? even with the worst projections for the virus the number of deaths would be less than the annual flu deaths.

Are you able to provide their “worst projections” so I can see for myself?

your lib buddies have been providing them for weeks.

You made a claim about CDC projections so I asked you. Can you back it up or not?

 

[DrLove]

I'm seeing a lot of discussion but can't figure out who has the majority.

To re-open the US economy in a limited fashion around Easter Monday (4/13/20) with masks, social distancing, no sports venues, no cruises, or major crowds, just minimal re-opening businesses. The object is to keep as many companies in-business as possible.

Trump wants to reopen US businesses in weeks 'not months' even as deaths rise â as it happened

Democrats voted to oppose motion on the coronavirus stimulus bill, while Dr Anthony Fauci and others warn against scaling back social distancing

www.theguardian.com

Or, keep the economy and businesses shutdown until the coronavirus (COVID-19) is under control as recommended by the doctors, even if that means that many businesses would NOT re-open due to the lost revenue and bankruptcy.

All of the lock down measures that I've seen, have not been effective, as near as I can tell.
The clear example of this, would be Italy, which is again as near as I can tell, has the most strict and harsh lock down measure of any country.

Yet virus infections are still rising.

So.... given there doesn't seem to be much value in lock down, then we are left with a pointless policy that damages the entire economy. Corona, no matter which way you look at it, will be short term. Damage to the economy will be long term.

Now I do understand the logic, of trying to flatten the curve, and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Again... not seeing that this is working.

Italy has flattened their curve. Ours is off the chain. Even with current measures, we're minimally a few weeks off. Reopen everything TOO soon and we risk everything INCLUDING the economy for the longterm.

Israeli Doctor in Italy Says New, Innovative Treatments ‘Flattening the Curve’

Carmi Sheffer describes connecting patients to ventilators via scuba gear, placing them on stomachs, in battle with unpredictable virus which ‘spreads like wildfire’ among elderly.

atlantajewishtimes.timesofisrael.com

 

[Redfish]

I'm seeing a lot of discussion but can't figure out who has the majority.

To re-open the US economy in a limited fashion around Easter Monday (4/13/20) with masks, social distancing, no sports venues, no cruises, or major crowds, just minimal re-opening businesses. The object is to keep as many companies in-business as possible.

Trump wants to reopen US businesses in weeks 'not months' even as deaths rise â as it happened

Democrats voted to oppose motion on the coronavirus stimulus bill, while Dr Anthony Fauci and others warn against scaling back social distancing

www.theguardian.com

Or, keep the economy and businesses shutdown until the coronavirus (COVID-19) is under control as recommended by the doctors, even if that means that many businesses would NOT re-open due to the lost revenue and bankruptcy.

All of the lock down measures that I've seen, have not been effective, as near as I can tell.
The clear example of this, would be Italy, which is again as near as I can tell, has the most strict and harsh lock down measure of any country.

Yet virus infections are still rising.

So.... given there doesn't seem to be much value in lock down, then we are left with a pointless policy that damages the entire economy. Corona, no matter which way you look at it, will be short term. Damage to the economy will be long term.

Now I do understand the logic, of trying to flatten the curve, and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Again... not seeing that this is working.

Italy has flattened their curve. Ours is off the chain. Even with current measures, we're minimally a few weeks off. Reopen everything TOO soon and we risk everything INCLUDING the economy for the longterm.

Israeli Doctor in Italy Says New, Innovative Treatments ‘Flattening the Curve’

Carmi Sheffer describes connecting patients to ventilators via scuba gear, placing them on stomachs, in battle with unpredictable virus which ‘spreads like wildfire’ among elderly.

atlantajewishtimes.timesofisrael.com

when is too soon? that is the question.

 

[sparky]

6 months from now you will be screaming that Trump increased the debt

Actually most of us were screaming about that 6 months ago Red

~S~

 

[Redfish]

No its not. the curve is flattening,

WTF?

Pure bullshit

Do you just lie for the hell of it?

look at the CDC stats. turn off CNN, they are filling your little head with BS.

That's bullshit. If you have a link post it

Otherwise stop lying

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.

nymag.com

 

[Redfish]

6 months from now you will be screaming that Trump increased the debt

Actually most of us were screaming about that 6 months ago Red

~S~

yes, we were, but were you also screaming when obama doubled the debt in 8 years? somehow I don't remember hearing that.

 

[Rye Catcher]

Were at War with this virus. Don't aid the enemy.

What this country needs is a War on Bullsh*t

~S~

We can win that battle by voting on Nov 3, 2020; and hopefully the war on Jan 20th 2021 [though I fear what trump will do to further destroy our democracy between next November and during his transition to convince his supporters that that his defeat was a coup by the deep state].

 

[colfax_m]

No its not. the curve is flattening,

WTF?

Pure bullshit

Do you just lie for the hell of it?

look at the CDC stats. turn off CNN, they are filling your little head with BS.

That's bullshit. If you have a link post it

Otherwise stop lying

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.

nymag.com

From the article:
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country.

So much for your claim that the worst case scenario isn’t worse than influenza.

 

[NoNukes]

W

What are we going to do in 6 months when the next flu season starts, shut down again? We have swung from one extreme to the other. Those at high risk should isolate, the rest of the country should get back to work. That's my opinion.

We have flu vaccines.

Get one.

Yet despite those vaccines we still lose thousands every year and don't lose our shit over it.
The vaccines are no guarantee either as they are developed each year with the expected strains which are not always in line with actual strains that may spread in any particular year.
A clue.
Get one.

This is something new that there is no vaccine against. Do not let it reach Buffalo, Wyoming.
What is happening is probably nature doing a culling of the human race. We have overpopulated and are destroying the earth. Do not assist nature, it does not need our help.

 

[sparky]

This is something new that there is no vaccine against.

Not Found

CytoDyn is a publicly traded late stage biotechnology company developing innovative treatments for multiple therapeutic indications based on Leronlimab, a novel humanized monoclonal antibody targeting the CCR5 receptor. CCR5 appears to play…

www.cytodyn.com

~S~

 

[Fueri]

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)...."

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR0SPSTfDLudxgJWv3HlenZz6jAil90aWNBxhh6nTRGWKsGmvw-_dRtH5u4

It's not the flu, it's not the flu.....oh, shit it's the flu.

We've been seeing a lot of reworking of these types of numbers over the past few days and most, if not all, that I've seen indicate that this was highly overestimated in terms of mortality rate and other metrics.

NOT discussing bringing elements of the economy back online in light of this data makes no sense whatsoever.

In the main hospital in Albany Georgia, every bed is full with Coronavirus patients. They have no more capacity left. That NEVER happens during flu season, and it is starting to happen in multiple cities around the country whether small or large! You'll soon see make shift morgues to handle the dead outside these hospitals as the body count rises. Does that happen during flu season? NO!

You wanna know why this is not the FLU, just ask any ER doctor in New York City! This is an unprecedented disaster! No one is going to go back to work to a non-essential service because that aids the virus in finding new host and increases the number of people that die.

There were 54,000 infections on March 24 in the United States. By the end of the day on March 27, there were 104,000 infections. That level of exponential growth, doubling every 3 to 4 days, will produce 5 million infections by Easter and a death toll of 50,000! The ENEMY, this PATHOGEN, has to be defeated before any non-essential service can open up again. Take this exponential growth to the end of April, and 1 million Americans would die because over 100 million would be infected! The daily infection rate increase must be cut from the average of 22% down below 8% and SOON!

Yes, and that's why we're trying to flatten the curve to keep from overwhelming the medical system, which makes sense, however, these prognostications of millions dead are looking increasingly wrong.

I cited the article. Fauci's name is on it, BTW. If you'd like to take issue with it, go ahead.

We are seeing growth in the numbers of cases here because we've just implemented larger scale testing and, of course, it is still spreading. Everyone, literally everyone, expected the numbers to spike once larger scale testing was implemented and, of course, they are.

Discussing opening up sections of the economy where the data indicates lesser risk makes sense. I know you think we should basically just dig a hole and climb in, as I've seen your posts, but we cannot do that indefinitely. If the data says otherwise, and it is beginning to look like the early numbers were flat wrong, that makes no sense. We have to strike a balance here.....

We can lock down non-essential services indefinitely. This is a national emergency. I hope the exponential growth is stopped, but if it is not, with doubling every three days and a 1% death rate, by the end of April with those stats, you will see 1 million dead Americans. That's basic math. There were 54,000 infections on March 24 and that nearly doubled by March 27 with 104,000 infections. A 1.6% death rate. At that rate, you will have 1 million dead Americans by the end of April! That's what the basic math shows.

There is NO reason for NON-ESSENTIAL services to be reopened for the next 3 months or 6 months if necessary. This is a national crises. The two ways you defeat this PATHOGEN are LOCKDOWN and increased testing.

There is overwhelming evidence of what happens when you don't lockdown and increase testing. There is NO EVIDENCE that shutting down non-essential services for 3 months or 3 years would not be something the country could not come back from.

Look at what happened during the Great Depression and World War II. Shutting down non-essential services is key to defeating this enemy, and every day you don't do that, you EXTEND THE CRISES which makes the overall economic hardship greater.

No, we cannot just lock down non-essential services indefinitely.

Millions of people will not survive financially indefinitely with a few grand from the government. There is no bailout large enough to stave off what will happen under some indefinite shutdown. Unemployment will continue to skyrocket, business will fold, bankruptcies will mount, foreclosures will follow. These things are going to happen already and the longer this goes on the larger those numbers will get as more and more people are pushed underwater.

Locking everything down does not shorten the timeframe here. I'm not sure where you got that idea but it is wrong. If anything it extends the timeframe. Flattening the curve does not necessarily mean less cases- it spreads them over time, which results in a longer timeframe. All we need to do is look at the x-axis on any one of the graphs already put out, which plot time vs cases to see that. We can hope as spring arrives some of this will lessen, and maybe it will, but that's uncertain.

If the data indicates it we need to reshape our thinking as that data evolves. That data seems to have been updated by the same experts most people have been telling us we should be looking to for answers, and we are looking at new information just over the last few days. This new data seemingly contradicts a lot of what we have been told to this point which has shaped our thinking and our strategies. We need to incorporate updated information into our decision-making process here and not just sit in the most conservative position possible across the entire country.

There has to be an end game here and we need to start figuring out what that looks like and continue moving forward. Just locking down nationally indefinitely is not a plan, nor is waiting until we have a vaccine, as that's a year+ out.

This is a national emergency. Non-essential business's, their closure, the unemployment levels are irrelevant to defeating the Pathogen and saving lives. Most experts believe that the lockdown is the best way to save lives, protect the healthcare system, as well as protect the economy. The non-essential business's can reopen when this WAR is over. There may be multiple shut down cycles we go through before a vaccine is available and used.

Thousands of non-essential business's shut down during World War II and over 16 million men were taken out of the economy and sent over seas to fight in foreign countries. This is what happens in a national emergency and the country can maintain this for years if necessary, because it has in the past.

The most in debt this country ever was, was the year after World War II ended.

Also, it is NOT for sure, that there will be another outbreak after this lockdown is lifted or that if there is one that it will be as bad. More importantly, it would have saved lives, bought the medical and scientific community time, and we would be closer to a vaccine.

The fact is, the lockdown plan is what 99% of the nations on earth have adopted and plan to pursue until the pathogen is defeated.

The idiots that want to reopen non-essential services are in the minority. Even if your non-essential business reopens, no one is going to go there or use it in the middle of the pandemic.

Continuing to repeat the same thing over and over again doesnt make it more true.

Nor is this an either-or choice on a global level for the entire country. Some areas are, and will, be more effected. Some portions of the population are more at risk than others.

And yes, it is all but certain that the disease will not be simply 'defeated' and will continue to circulate during any lockdown only to re-emerge once it is lifted. Without a vaccine or some amount of herd immunity to begin to shift numbers from those susceptible to those not susceptible, that is nothing but simple math.

All of the histrionics in the world won't save people's homes and futures from some misapplied global lockdown. The country must, and will, open up in areas where it can while remaining vigilant to keep the infection numbers within the ability of the system to handle them. That is all these measures have ever been intended to do, as most people realize that economic considerations have to be part of our calculus, whether we like it or not.

And, again, as you seem to be ignoring this fact completely, the data we had 2 weeks ago is apparently not what experts are saying now. We don't plot a course based on old data, nor should we.

We're not doing this for years. That you think that throwing millions of families out of their homes with no way to earn money to even feed themselves and destabilizing our economy for decades is a better option than phasing economic activity back in where possible honestly baffles the heck out of me.

Sorry, but were not going to kill people and let this pathogen ravage the country in order to open up non-essential business's. Even if you did open these places up, they are not going to get any business or nothing like they would in normal times. That's reality. The only way to save lives and the economy is to DEFEAT THE PATHOGEN. Until that happens, there will be no returning to business as usual, even if an IDIOT decides to try it. The States are far more for the lockdowns than the idiot Trump.

The lockdown stays until the virus is contained or a vaccine is developed. That's the way it is NOW, and that is the way it will continue to be until containment or a vaccine occurs.

Well, I guess we'll see about that. Given that most experts seem to share the opinion that this will be more piecemeal than not, you may be in for a surprise.

And again, there are more options than A or B. Its hard to discuss that if you're going to stay laser focused on that as if these are the only options when in reality there are a range. And there are a range for areas and communities, and so on.

We cannot simply wait this out, nor shoukd we, as, as people are exposed and have some immunity they should go back to work

We are not going to wait for a vaccine, nor should we if the new numbers we are looking at are accurate, as thats 1-2 years out and that strategy likely destroys more lives than it saves. You may think that, but, again, I think youre in for a bit of a surprise there.

Most experts worldwide support the lockdown which is why 99% of country's worldwide are locked down when it comes to non-essential business.

Actually there is no middle ground. It really is A or B given what it takes to contain and defeat a Pathogen. Bill Gates emphasized that on CNN the other night. He also pointed out that will be out of this sooner if we prevent the foolish from opening non-essential services up too soon.

There is no problem with keeping non-essential business such for two years, or more, if neccessary. Again, look at World War II.

The hope is that sometime this summer, we might be in the place where China is now, and could then consider to start to open things up. But opening things up will be based on PUBLIC HEALTH and SCIENCE, not some raving lunatic who wants their non-essential business to be open again for their own personal reasons. Sorry, but the country comes before you and your non-essential business.

Theyre locked down to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the medical system, not because they think it is the only option

And it is not A or B. Literally no-one is talking in those terms. Not Fauci, not Birx, nobody. That's you taking an extreme position and seemingly refusing to accept that there are a range of choices, which we will see as this progresses.

We are not the economy we were post WW2. How you can continue to cite that as some justification and not see that glaring hole in it for days is amazing. It is not apples to apples by any stretch of the imagination. Others have pointed out other flaws in that lohgic as well and yet you continue to cling to it.

And you keep talking about my non-essential business. I let it go the first time, but will address it as you seem to think you have some point there. 1. This isn't personal, so don't make it so. 2. My business is essential and I'm still working.

Millions already aren't working and tens of millions more wouldnt be under some multi year nationwide shutdown, which makes no sense anyhow, just based on math. As more people get this there will be less targets for the virus and thus less infections. There will be a peak in any scenario and nobody is talking about that being two years out. Literally no-one.

 

[sparky]

There will be a peak in any scenario and nobody is talking about that being two years out. Literally no-one.

now you're just taking all the fun outta the zombie apocalypse Fueri

~S~

 

[White 6]

Nope. Not yet. Still way premature. Re-evaluate in 2 or three weeks, unless willing to write off a huge new surge in infections and death numbers.

 

[Redfish]

No its not. the curve is flattening,

WTF?

Pure bullshit

Do you just lie for the hell of it?

look at the CDC stats. turn off CNN, they are filling your little head with BS.

That's bullshit. If you have a link post it

Otherwise stop lying

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.

nymag.com

From the article:
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country.

So much for your claim that the worst case scenario isn’t worse than influenza.

you missed "in more than a year" compare that to 2 years of flu deaths. Those projections are not recent, they are several weeks old and the current ones are significantly lower.

I am not saying we should ignore it, just that the panic is unnecessary.

 

[NoNukes]

Atr

This is something new that there is no vaccine against.

Not Found

CytoDyn is a publicly traded late stage biotechnology company developing innovative treatments for multiple therapeutic indications based on Leronlimab, a novel humanized monoclonal antibody targeting the CCR5 receptor. CCR5 appears to play…

www.cytodyn.com

~S~

You saying there is a vaccine?

 

[Redfish]

W

What are we going to do in 6 months when the next flu season starts, shut down again? We have swung from one extreme to the other. Those at high risk should isolate, the rest of the country should get back to work. That's my opinion.

We have flu vaccines.

Get one.

Yet despite those vaccines we still lose thousands every year and don't lose our shit over it.
The vaccines are no guarantee either as they are developed each year with the expected strains which are not always in line with actual strains that may spread in any particular year.
A clue.
Get one.

This is something new that there is no vaccine against. Do not let it reach Buffalo, Wyoming.
What is happening is probably nature doing a culling of the human race. We have overpopulated and are destroying the earth. Do not assist nature, it does not need our help.

there will be a vaccine for next year and there are already treatments that work. You may be right about nature culling the herd, It does happen every 100 years or so.

 

[NoNukes]

No its not. the curve is flattening,

WTF?

Pure bullshit

Do you just lie for the hell of it?

look at the CDC stats. turn off CNN, they are filling your little head with BS.

That's bullshit. If you have a link post it

Otherwise stop lying

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.

nymag.com

From the article:
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country.

So much for your claim that the worst case scenario isn’t worse than influenza.

you missed "in more than a year" compare that to 2 years of flu deaths. Those projections are not recent, they are several weeks old and the current ones are significantly lower.

I am not saying we should ignore it, just that the panic is unnecessary.

The USA is becoming the new epicenter. Look at what is happening in Europe and do not be stupid. Trump will not save you.

 

[WEATHER53]

This social experiment has lost its luster. Top immunologists stating it’s nowhere near SARS or Mers but instead more like the flu.
Is the American citizenry just going to have to push out and reestablish its freedoms?
Time for this travesty to end.

 

[colfax_m]

No its not. the curve is flattening,

WTF?

Pure bullshit

Do you just lie for the hell of it?

look at the CDC stats. turn off CNN, they are filling your little head with BS.

That's bullshit. If you have a link post it

Otherwise stop lying

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.

nymag.com

From the article:
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country.

So much for your claim that the worst case scenario isn’t worse than influenza.

you missed "in more than a year" compare that to 2 years of flu deaths. Those projections are not recent, they are several weeks old and the current ones are significantly lower.

I am not saying we should ignore it, just that the panic is unnecessary.

Annual deaths from influenza are 20-60k. It would take 20 years to get to 1.7 million deaths.

As you can see, your claim that COVID isn’t going to kill as many as influenza is unsupported.

 

[WEATHER53]

In more than a year just about everybody gets something. Honestly the goal posts and methods of risk assignment just keep getting broadened and the Worst Case keeps being projected as “most likely” rather than the slim margin that “worst case” in reality always is. But, we don’t live anymore in reality and haven since the Hurt Trump movement got into full gear.