So, tanya, worrying about making sure everyone understands the cap gains tax (because she wants everyone to believe what she would like to believe) says:
According to the Tax Foundation source you are lying about, if your marginal income is 39.6% and you have held your assets for more than 5 years, your capital gains taxes are 20%. This is under May 7th, 1997. No where does it say that these cuts went into effect in 1998. So congratulations, you've been outed as a liar. And it must be really pathetic to take an online debate so far that you actually have to lie about the evidence presented to you. Come on. It's not that serious.
OK, for some portion of the assets that have been owned for over a year, you are correct. My mistake. Tax deductions are far from my specialty. But the real point remains, that would have, and did have very little impact on the economy, according to any impartial source I have ever read. But again, every bat shit crazy web site would try to tell you that it did. find me a source that is impartial that explains why it did, and I will be impressed. Otherwise, your simply pasting data that is largely immaterial.
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Now, now, amazon. Economists do not look at ue rates much over a short, say 4 month period.
Yes, they do. A 4 month period is equal to that of a financial quarter and GDP is recorded on a quarterly basis. Sorry, reality disagrees with you.
Look at in terms that it means much, dipshit. Of course economists look at the ue as often as they get new numbers, but they do not take short periods of time to seriously consider the numbers for determining projections. A four month period is interesting, but not particularly helpful in understanding the trend, and in looking at what is causing what.
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But for your understanding, since you seem incapable of telling the truth, the ue rate went from 5.3% in Feb. of 1997 go 4.9% in May of that year. Now, as a simple money changer you may not understand the following, but try to understand that I said:
1. Lowering tax rates during times of low ue does not have any real effect on the ue rate. Now, what you need to understand is that the ue rate was at exactly 4.3% when this simple cap gains rate increase occurred. That would have had absolutely NO impact on my statement. As I have said before in this post, lowering tax rates during low ue times is very often a GOOD THING.
2, The ue rate was still going down in 97 and 98 as a result of the impacts of earlier stimulus. If you understood stimulus, it is EXPECTED that when you do a stimulus, it will have impact for years to come. And this one did.
3. That .4% ue rate decrease was pretty substantial when starting with an already very low rate. After the cap gains went into effect in July of 98, over the next year and a half, the ue rate continued down another 1.5%. All of which proves nothing, of course, unless you like to believe what pretty much ONLY the bat shit crazy con tool sites would like us to believe, which was that the whole Clinton economic success, and certainly his deficits, were the result of a cap gains tax reduction that went into effect over the last 18 months of his term. Only the bat shit crazy con web sites and you, Amazon, push that idea.
I can't understand any of this. It's a good thing I don't have to respond to any of this drivel because I have already proved that you were lying the first time about went the Capital Gains Cuts were enacted. So this makes your entire point irrelevant.
I am not surprised that you can not. Though maybe it is that you choose not to.
Because if you could find an actual impartial source that believes the drivel you are espousing, then it would be interesting
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Here you go, again, Amazon, an actual real impartial source.
Historical Unemployment Rates in the United States
That's a blog. Not an impartial website. You might as well cite a source from Rachal Maddow's website or Paul Krugman's blog. I least I know what I'm getting into when I visit his blog...
But keep plugging it. I'm sure you'll even convince me that it's impartial if you try hard enough.
Here is the problem. You can not convince a con tool of anything. If you do not know of davesmanual.com, sorry for you. Pretty well tells anyone who does economic research that you do not. Here, me con tool. See if this will help:
About Davemanuel.com
About The Site:
Read by over 5,000 people every day
Read by people in over 185 different countries
Davemanuel.com has been referenced by:
New York Times
Washington Post
TheStreet.com
Forbes - 2
PBS.org
Wired.com
DailyKos.com
Yahoo Finance
CNNMoney.com
Telegraph.co.uk
Business Insider
National Review - 2 3
The Daily Beast
Zero Hedge
Mission: To have an online repository of financial and political information that is often searched for but is generally hard to find.
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Right. The timeline for the .com bubble is questionable, but most believe it started at around the same time as Amazon.com got it's start, in 1994. The impact on the market was later, of course. During the clinton term, the ue rate fell from 7.4% at the beginning of his term, to 3.9% at the end. And no real difference resulted from the cap gains tax cut at all. Only the far, far right try to push that concept.
Asset bubbles don't start as soon as a company or IPO establishes. That's beyond dumb. And if most people believe the boom started in 1990 they would be wrong because it started in 1997.
Jesus, Tanya. Ya suppose so. Do you suppose that Amazon was the first or only .com company in 1994??? Perhaps you have some proof of the 1997 except a very shaky one.
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The dot-com bubble (also referred to as the dot-com boom, the Internet bubble and the Information Technology Bubble[1]) was a historic speculative bubble covering roughly 1997–2000 (with a climax on March 10, 2000, with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52 in intraday trading before closing at 5048.62) during which stock markets in industrialized nations saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the Internet sector and related fields.
Dot-com bubble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Nice source. Wikipedia, the EDITABLE on line encyclopedia. Not to knock you a lot, I use it to, but only for a quick check. Then I find sources that back it up, or do not. Especially when the article you are looking at says:
The examples and perspective in this article may not represent a worldwide view of the subject. Please improve this article and discuss the issue on the talk page. (July 2012)
I was working in that world at that time, and I hate to tell you, but not many of us there at that time would necessarily agree with 1997, or 1994, or any other date. You are looking at the financial end of things, which did not initially recognize the .com bubble.
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The dotcom bubble
What was the Dot-com Bubble?
And lots more. It is obvious that things were in high gear since 1994, though you could pick any year and say it was the start. But most do not believe it STARTED as late as 1997.
GDP grew faster than for any but three other presidents during his term. By the way, before you go breathlessly checking who the higher two were, they were Truman and LBJ as I recall. And yes, you would be so happy to see that Regan came in at a strong 4th.
The Clinton economy, in charts.
Irrelevant information to me, but thanks for bring it up nonetheless. GDP from 1993 to 1996
The relevency is that the economy grew year by year by more than for any other president. Not from 1996, or 1997, but as soon as it was nudged by stimulus spending in clinton's first years.
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Really. I assume you are talking about the DaveManual.com sit. Hardly a personal website.
DaveManual.com is Dave Manual's personal website, twit. Notice that his name is also on his website address and all of his information about himself is listed there.
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DaveManual is one of the most respected and know impartial sites on the web. And, if you care to get at the numbers for the time period you want, that should be your source. The numbers from this site, for ue, for example, are from the bls site. Jesus, Tanya. Do you just normally talk to stupid people.
Dave Manual is a blogger. Not an economist, not a statistian, but a blogger. You do realize you are admitting that you are such a hack that you don't get your facts from primary or secondary statistics websites, but internet blogs? And somehow you are proud of that. I thought you were a bigger joke before.
Jesus, you are a clown. If you look above, you will see you are among a very few really ignorant people who do not use davemanual and respect it as what it is. Davemanual is not a bolg, but a website. It has links to blogs. Sorry for you. Now, I know that you think that taking numbers from the st louis fed and making charts is really good research. I would prefer to look at the numbers from a source I can trust, not Tanya's charts. Too easy to lie with statistics. I prefer to remove as many of the variables as possible. And you are a variable, as would I be if I were making charts.
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But here is the deal. If you care to find a place which I misquoted numbers from DaveManual, let me know and I will check it out. If I or he (it would not be he) was wrong, I would actually apologize. As in admit my mistake. Which is a novel idea for con tools.
I didn't say you misquoted numbers. I said your own source refutes you, as you have claimed that 5% is low unemployment and your source says otherwise.
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Sorry, Tanya, if you EVER PAID ANY ATTENTION TO A SIMPLE ECONOMICS CLASS, you would understand why economists see under 6% is acceptable and under 5% is low.
Your English is so bad, you don't even understand that you said the same thing that I said.
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Hey, according to our own website 5% unemployment is not low. If anything, it's average. The lowest average unemployment was 2% and the highest average was 9%. I'm assuming you can do basic math. Then you'll understand the difference between low unemployment and just, eh, average.
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You see, they are not so blatantly stupid as to consider the MEAN UE RATE as anthing to consider in determining where low starts. Jesus, you are ignorant. So, by your assessment, if the historic rate was 15% and it got down to 10.9%, then you would say 10.9% would be low???? Jesus, what can one say.
Unemployment was 5.5%. That's not low. That's average. Low Unemployment is anywhere from 2 - 4% because that is below average.
Seriously, I say that 5% is average and anything under is considered low. You say I'm wrong, then you end up saying the exact same things that I have already said. There aren't enough adjectives to describe how dumb you are...
Yes, they do. If the average historical unemployment has been 15% then anything under 15% is considered low. It doesn't matter what you personally believe low is. Unfortunately for you, math and statistical data doesn't care what your personal opinions are.
Well, lets take a look at ue rates in general, my economic expert:
The highest rate for a single month is shared by November and December of 1982 with an unemployment rate of 10.8%
The year with the highest average unemployment rate was 1982 with an average unemployment rate of 9.71%
The lowest rate for a single month is shared by May and June of 1953 with an unemployment rate of 2.5%
The year with the lowest average unemployment rate was 1953 with an average unemployment rate of 2.93%
From DaveManual, me dear.
Now, in 1948, the rate was under 3% on average for the year, and reached 2.5% for one month. That was a heavily war impacted time, nothing much normal about it.
Since 1970, there have been a total of 7 years where the ue rate has been below 5%.
A brief history of U.S. unemployment - The Washington Post
"a normal unemployment rate is 6 to 7 percent, with anything higher than that considered a high unemployment rate."
What Is a High Unemployment Rate?
Most economists believe we are at full employment when the unemployment rate is between 4 and 6%. This is known as the natural rate of unemployment. This rate changes over time as changes in our economy affect structural unemployment levels.
Chapter 6: Unemployment
Saying that 5% ue is average is interesting. Because it has happened only 8 years over the past 43. So a little hard to believe that you actually think that 5% is average. Only 14 years have been under 6%. Get the drift. That is why economists, in general, believe that an ue under 6% are low. Rates from 6 to 7% are average. During that same 43 year period, about 14 were above 7%.
So, you can say all you want that 5% was an average ue rate. But among those of us from the fact based world, you simply look stupid.
Again, you still don't understand how an unemployment rate is calculated:
Yes I do, but I am sure you are going to provide a painful explanation. Here is the deal, me dear, the blm provides the numbers monthly. So, what is your point???
Unemployed / Labour Force * 100 = Unemployment Rate
Unless you consider the historical labour force participation rate, there is no way to know what is consider normally low, average or high. Some countries (like Singapore) have an unemployment rate of 1% and have had unemployment rates as high as 5%. 3% is their historical average, but according to your faulty logical their unemployment rate has never been high.
The unemployment rate is always taken into account in regards to it's labour force and this is always take into consideration with it's population. This is what an unemployment rate is, and this is how an unemployment rate is calculated. But how can you possibly understand something so basic from an Econ 101 lesson. Google is the extent of your economic text book and you use a blogger's website for statistical data. Again, what a joke.
No, me dear. What you just posted is a joke. We are, I believe, talking about the us ue rate, not that of another country. But, me dear, in addition to the above drivel, there are many other considerations. And we could spend all day. I know you think what you just wrote was smart, but you are truly ignorant about unemployment rates. Jesus, that was stupid.
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Now now now tanya. You continue to ignore what I have said. No economist , nor I, would say that a tax decrease when the ue rate was low is a bad thing. And the tax decrease in the 1986 bill was during times of LOW UE.
LMAO! Too Funny! So now 7.5% is now low unemployment? Keep in mind, the historical average is still 5%,
Only to tanya, who is an economic idiot.and you yourself consider it average (or 'acceptable' are the words you have used):
I consider 5% very low. I would consider 6% low. See above, dipshit.
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Remember, Tanya, as I have proven to you, the ue rate had gone from 7.3% when reagan passed his first major tax decreas, to 10.8% in November of 1982, That was the HIGHEST RATE SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. And that rate had gone up at a regular rate from the implimentation of his tax decreases. The tax bill of 86 was passed when the UE rate was at 7.1%, and dropping rapidly.
No, after the first tax cut nothing happened to the unemployment rate.
Really. You consider going to 10.8% nothing. Are you saying the ue rate did not rise?????
Historical Unemployment Rates in the United States
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So, were tax increases of help in lowering the ue rate. No, not really. But was the money generated to provide stimulus?? Yes, it was. But more importantly, the money provided by BORROWING which you continue to ignore, was very helpful in allowing stimulative spending. Remember, Reagan tripled the national debt and borrowed more than all presidents before him COMBINED!! And he started those two things, AFTER the first tax decrease did not do as we were lead to believe. And ue went up and the deficit went up.
And that did nothing. All of the economic growth which occurred happened when Reagan decreased spending in those financial quarters. You are wrong again, and reality disagrees with you.
Yup. That would be it. Decreasing spending did it. Jesus. What a joke.
And Government spending in relation to job growth? Practically non-existant.
So your charts would say. But then, they are cherry picked, and of no real value.
Sorry, but once again reality disagrees with you.
You have no reality, me dear. Just an intent to rewrite history. Look, you can get plenty of your charts and lie like a rug. Just stay out there among the bat shit crazy web sites, and they will provide your information for you.
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That is when supply side economics went out the window, me poor ignorant money changer. Except the 86 tax decrease, which set up Bush 1 for a single term.
Supply Side is more than just tax cuts. There are actually four pillars involved with the concept and Reagan hardly implemented two of them. Couldn't be bother to Google that, I guess. Then that would mean you would have effectively learned something.
Jesus, you are a clown. Like Supply Side is so complex. Jesus. Yes, I remember. But the four pillars, meant to be similar to the four pillars of Keynesian economics, were a simplistic set of ideas. Not sure I remember them precisely, but as I recall, lower taxes, decrease the size of gov, reduce gov regulation, and control the money supply to keep inflation low. Did not work, has never worked, and never will work. Which is why you see no universities teaching much of anything about the policy any more, And why the chicago school of economics is about as popular as a turd in a punch bowl these days. It really comes down to cut taxes, which will decrease the size of the gov(assuming you co not borrow), politically kill any gov regulations (which, unfortunately, pisses off the population and gets you and your party thrown out of office). Check how european austerity is working. And get after the fed to tighten the money supply. How damned profound is that.
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And generally, you can find no support for what you are saying. No impartial sources.
I can. But that is not my idea of a debate. I formulate my own thesis and support it with data, which I have done on many occasions. You just say whatever that comes to mind, state it as a fact and hope people will treat it as such. You clearly don't have a clue as to what you are talking about.
And there is your major malfunction. You post dubius graphs, state theory, and back it with nothing. Sorry, your analysis is worth nothing to anyone except yourself. There are those out there who have done actual analysis. And that would not include you.
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But, oddly enough, you do criticize my sources though you should know that they are completely impartial. Now, if we look at your very own source, created by you, we should believe them??: We should have no doubt that it is completely impartial?? Jesus, you are a clown.
Lets compare and constast the sources you have used:
You used DaveManual.com. Which is a blog.
Again, my lying con, it is not a blog.Not a primary source for data. An online blog. You have also used the Washington Post, an online newspaper. Again, not a data collecting website.
You have your head so far up your ass trying to protect the con dogma that you have completely lost perspective. Sources that produce data are useful. Sources that provide services to access that data are useful. And sources that analyze that data from an impartial standpoint are highly useful. You see none of this, because you do not provide your actual sources, except the occasional gov agency name. You are simply stupid, not coherent.
I, on the other hand, have used the St. Louis Federal Reserve website. A data collecting website, by not only financial bloggers but by economist and others in the financial industry. Even Paul Krugman uses it.
Good for you, and I have no reason to take anything from your charts. You know you are completely partial. Stupid idea. Stupid sentence.
And yes, I have taken the time to create my own charts as there are limitations to using the charts provided on the Federal Reserve website. When I use their website, I can't write the text or draw arrows on their website. But one of the features are that I can download the data and create my own charts.
There is nothing questionable about the charts I create when I use the data from a statistical source. There is something questionable when someone links a blogger's website and passes it on as statistical fact. Guess which actualyl looks more credible.
I provide sources. Always have. I do not create my own charts and ask you to trust them. Nor do I, like you, create charts that have the timelines I want, and pick the data elements I want to show. Besides, you have given me plenty of reason to not trust you in the slightest. Like the whole effort to prove the Clinton economy was based on a capital gains tax decrease. Jesus, you even provided charts on that one. But you will not even try to find an economist that agrees with you. Funny.
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Sorry, the first tax decrease happened in Feb of 1981, the month after Reagans inaguration. It went into affect in Feb of that year, and started a string of increases in the deficit and the ue that went on to the peak at the end of 82. About 20 months of ue increases to 10.9%. Tax increases and borrowing started toward the beginning of 82, when it became obvious the problem was a big deal.
And next time try not to use your very own charts. They are not worth the time to vet.
See, this is why I created my own charts because your history is dreadful. This first tax decrease happened in August, not February. As if it wasn't apparent enough that you were making things up, I can even get the history channel to verify.
Yup, you are right. It was August. Long time ago. But the important part of that issue was what happened to ue. Which you claimed was nothing. Which is joke number 2. And yes, I know you say it was the volker problem. Which it partially was. But, the ue rate was coming down, and it then went up like a rocket. August until Dec of the following year.
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Aug 13, 1981:
Reagan signs Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA)
Reagan signs Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) ? History.com This Day in History ? 8/13/1981
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It went into affect in Feb of that year, and started a string of increases in the deficit and the ue that went on to the peak at the end of 82.
Bad history is once again bad. The Government brought in more revenue in 1982 than it did in 1981, but brought in less revenue than it did in 1983 than it did in 1982. This is nominal terms AND as a percentage of GDP...
Well, there you go. The Reagan admin had nothing to worry about. Did not need to raise taxes 11 times and Borrow Like Crazy. Maybe they just did not have a problem, as you are trying to say. Which lines up with only one source: The bat shit crazy con web sits. Perfect alignment. Again.
From the CBO:
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...storicaltables[1].pdf
Tax Revenue
1980: $517.1B
1981: $599.3B
1982: $617.8B
1983: $600.6B
1984: $666.4B
Tax Revenue as a Percentage of GDP:
1980: 19%
1981: 19.6%
1982: 19.2%
1983: 17.5%
1984: 17.3%
1985: 17.7%
1986: 17.5
1987: 18.4%
1988: 18.2%
Now, there are the numbers that matter. Did you notice that the percentage dropped from 83 til 86, as a percentage. Now, you may think that they did not know this was coming in 82, but they did, and that started the increase in borrowing. And the hurry to get out tax increases. Then, you forget the whole growth of government thing. Remember, borrowing tripled the national debt during the reagan admin. You kind of miss that point, again, as usual.
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About 20 months of ue increases to 10.9%. Tax increases and borrowing started toward the beginning of 82, when it became obvious the problem was a big deal.
The Government is always borrowing. You're too inept to understand that when a deficit happens, the Government has to borrow the remaining balance.
No, not necessarily. Not, for instance for the last couple years of the Clinton admin. But of course, what you are trying to cover up is the amount of the borrowing. Tripled the national debt, and borrowed more that all of the previous presidents combined. Either from the public or foreign investors. Are you really trying debate political matters without understanding how debt works?
No, I have that pretty well down, dipshit. You certainly have a big head, though. And again with the bad history, the spending started as soon as Reagan took office. During his first year, Outlays as a percentage of GDP increased by a full percent.
Good for you, tiny mind. You noticed. Pat yourself on the back.
Outlays:
1980: $590.9B
1981: $678.2B
1982: $745.7B
1983: $808.4B
1984: $851.8B
1985: $946.3B
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And next time try not to use your very own charts. They are not worth the time to vet.
This is why I created my own charts, because you make up history as you go along. If you are not going to take the time to verify your own nonsense, don't even try.
So again, to clarify the actual facts, the tax increases happened before the unemployment increased dramatically.
They started, and the borrowing started, as soon as the deficit and ue problem was understood. The spending (which has been going on since the beginning of Regan's first term) did nothing to slow unemployment. Government Outlays even increased almost $100 between the years of 1984 and 1985, and did nothing to the unemployment rate which was still at 7.5% (which you don't believe is high, now apparently).
You may notice that the ue rate was 10.9% in late 82. So you would like everyone to believe that the ue rate should have gone down like a rocket as a result of stimulus spending. It NEVER does. Unemployment is always the last indicator to come down. The ue rate dropped by 2% in 1983, about 1% in 1984, about .35 in 1985, and about .1% in 1986, .9% in 1987, and .4% in 1988, and .1% in 1989. So, your great hope, the 1986 tax decrease lowered the rate, if you believe that was all that was going on, by something like 1 to 1.5%
Spending did nothing. Tax increases did nothing. The unemployment did not shrink until taxes were lowered in 1986.
Right. How the hell do you write these statements and look yourself in the mirror. See the above. Must be that damned davemanual site, eh. Or could it be that you are lying again. From its high in dec of 82 until mid 86, the ue rate had dropped by 3% and was still dropping. typical of a stimulus. And was probably still going to keep on dropping as long as gov spending kept on keeping on. The tax decrease did very little Most likely under 1%.
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And, your attempt to say that Clinton's stimulus spending using tax revenue from his tax increases did not help the ue rate and the economy in general just does not pass the giggle test. Just use the data I provided, and if you think I misquoted, point it out. But I did not misquote. Your statements, me dear, just do not pass the giggle test.
It passes the reality test though.
No, it does not. And sure, I am going to use your graphs. Look at your statements, and how they wash with the actual numbers.
Yes, you have to love that stimulus. Especially when the spending keeps decreasing and decreasing. And just in case you try to make something up, here it is from an annual perspective.
Well, that would make you totally devoid of economic understanding. The spending from any stimulus ALWAYS decreases year after year. You spend as much as possibly early, to generate private employment. Did you expect those stimulus spending numbers to keep going UP??? Never, ever have, and never ever will. Now, that is truly just basic, and I mean basic, logic. I thought you were telling me how smart you were. I am so disappointed.
Yeah, and that balanced budget? Also the result of stimulus, right? I'm convinced you will say anything you want in a sad attempt to prove a point, regardless of history or facts.
It was the result of a strong economy. And low unemployment. And a .com bubble. And the alignment of the sun. The spending helped. Though you will never admit it. Because you are a con tool.
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Right, my poor economic illiterate. Your points come from one place, and one place only. That is the bat shit crazy con tool sites that all of your points are pushed.
The Federal Reserve?
You can get all sorts of distorted analysis using fed reserve numbers from the bat shit crazy con web sites. As I am sure you know.
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Clinton's cap gains tax decrease law of 97 is a classic. Every bat shit crazy con tool site is trying to make them THE reason for the success of Clinton's term. But you can find no economists backing that concept up.
I'm not even sure you can name a single economist without taking the time to look it up. Let alone actually be familiar with another economist's work.
That would be your opinion. And you know how much I value your opinion.
Really funny thing, one of my fishing buddies is an economist. I'll have to tell him I do not know him.
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Relative to my background in economics, I have plenty. Collegiate and working time. And lots of research just for the fun of it. If you are going to try to sell me that stock brokers do a lot of econ research, forget it. I have known my share, and most are totally ignorant of economics. But, good try....Well, not really. Stupid try.
I really hope that you are not saying that with a straight face. Well you are bound to fool someone. Linking economic data from a personal blog.
Hopefully, you do not believe that it is a blog. If so, look up blog and try again. And if you would like to put some money up that I can not produce a ba in econ, let me know. Lets see if you have any backbone.
And yes you are a joke.