Wow, you really have nothing else. This is even a bigger mess than your previous two responses. I'll try my best to shift through this train wreck, so I can destroy you even further.
So, tanya, worrying about making sure everyone understands the cap gains tax (because she wants everyone to believe what she would like to believe) says:
Again with the monolouging? Do you really think highly of yourself that you believe people honestly hang on your words? Well maybe they do. There are a ton of idiots on this forum.
And no, I don't want to make anyone believe anything. I explained how capital gains word because you clearly don't understand them. Not even the basics. As a stock broker, I am trained to know and what better person to actually learn about these things than someone like me.
You're welcome.
OK, for some portion of the assets that have been owned for over a year, you are correct. My mistake. Tax deductions are far from my specialty.
No shit. Then again, other than ad homeniens and make-believe nothing is real your specialty.
But the real point remains, that would have, and did have very little impact on the economy, according to any impartial source I have ever read. But again, every bat shit crazy web site would try to tell you that it did. find me a source that is impartial that explains why it did, and I will be impressed. Otherwise, your simply pasting data that is largely immaterial.
If you have a claim, you support said claim with evidence (or in this case, since it is an economic discussion, data). Your idea of backing up your claims is citing a source from someone who is merely spouting the same thing you are spouting. That's not how a debate works. That's is an intellectual fallacy called "Argumentum Ad Populum." Simplified not to confuse you, Appeal To Consensus.
Debates are not won by who else you can get to agree with you or which sources you like, which can back up what you say. They are won by the evidence presented. I have tons of evidence which supports majority of my claims. You have zero which supports any of yours. If your idea of gathering evidence is citing blog sources, then it's no secret why you are having a difficult time.
Look at in terms that it means much, dipshit. Of course economists look at the ue as often as they get new numbers, but they do not take short periods of time to seriously consider the numbers for determining projections. A four month period is interesting, but not particularly helpful in understanding the trend, and in looking at what is causing what.
Four months is long enough. In Four Months, you get a GDP calculation and from that calculation (negative or positive GDP growth), economist can determine (or guess as some of them do) whether or not the economy is going from an upward or downward trend. It does not take 8 or 12 months for economist to determine the trends. That's far too long, and wouldn't make any kind of sense regardless.
You clearly don't know what you are talking about. For whatever reason (the reason being you don't understand economics) you have decided that you should substitute your personal opinions, rather than to understand how economic projects are computed in the first place. Sorry, that isn't going to work here..
I am not surprised that you can not. Though maybe it is that you choose not to.
Because if you could find an actual impartial source that believes the drivel you are espousing, then it would be interesting
I probably did choose not to. That doesn't change the fact that I don't have to response to anything regarding the Clinton Capital Gains tax because majority of that paragraph was rooted in the lie that the cuts started in 1998. Whether or not you believe that unemployment was already heading towards 4% is your personal opinion. The fact remains it wasn't spending or any sort of stimulus that got it there.
Here is the problem. You can not convince a con tool of anything. If you do not know of davesmanual.com, sorry for you. Pretty well tells anyone who does economic research that you do not. Here, me con tool. See if this will help:
I don't need to know anything about Dave Manual. The fact remains that he is a blogger, and you didn't provide any sort of statistical data from any statistical websites. You are also playing into another intellectual fallacy: Appeal To Authority. This isn't a game of cards. You are not automatically correct simply because you choose to provide your evidence from some well known blogger.
You are debating me, and I am debating you. I provide my own facts and figures, and I expect you to do the same when presenting your arguments. If I want to debate Dave Manual, I might as well do it directly.
Nice source. Wikipedia, the EDITABLE on line encyclopedia. Not to knock you a lot, I use it to, but only for a quick check. Then I find sources that back it up, or do not. Especially when the article you are looking at says:
The examples and perspective in this article may not represent a worldwide view of the subject. Please improve this article and discuss the issue on the talk page. (July 2012)
The Britannica the oldest and most English-language encyclopaedia still being produced, and a study has shown that Wikipedia is just as accurate as Britannica. This is less than 4 serious errors in the average article for both Encyclopedia. It's really not my fault that my evidence refutes yours. You need a better education, that's all...
Study: Wikipedia as accurate as Britannica - CNET News
I was working in that world at that time, and I hate to tell you, but not many of us there at that time would necessarily agree with 1997, or 1994, or any other date. You are looking at the financial end of things, which did not initially recognize the .com bubble.
There is only one definition of a bubble, and that is an economic cycle characterized by a rapid expansion followed by a contraction. You must mean another type of bubble. The kind that you blow with your playset. Sorry, this is an economic discussion. If you are going to change course and move the goal post at every opportunity, then maybe this isn't the topic for you.
Quote:
The dotcom bubble
What was the Dot-com Bubble?
And lots more. It is obvious that things were in high gear since 1994, though you could pick any year and say it was the start. But most do not believe it STARTED as late as 1997.[/COLOR]
Aside from the fact that none of those sources support what you are saying, they are no more credible than Wikipedia. My wikipedia article cites its sources and all of them do work. There are no citations on any of your sources. Why exactly should they be considered more credible than my reference? Simply because you don't agree? Yeah, that makes alot of sense.
The relevency is that the economy grew year by year by more than for any other president. Not from 1996, or 1997, but as soon as it was nudged by stimulus spending in clinton's first years.
There was no stimulus in the beginning of Clinton's first term. All of the Government Spending happened before Clinton even was inaugurated. Government expenditures was cut by 6% in 1993, and was cut by 1% in 1993. You either believe:
- Government Expenditures is the same as Federal Outlays
- Any good economy is the result of Government Spending
With such narrow and binary logic, it is a wonder why you have a hard time with basic research.
Too easy to lie with statistics.
You just said in your last response that you do research for fun and you have a background in economics. If you truly do research for fun and you understand what you are looking at, then it would be hard for anyone to lie using statistics.
Your real problem with statistics is that you really don't have any to prove your case. So you'd rather link a blog instead of looking up the evidence yourself.
I prefer to remove as many of the variables as possible. And you are a variable, as would I be if I were making charts. [/COLOR]
I make charts because I understand the data. I know what the data represents and I know what the relationship between two or more different data series means. This is what REAL research is. Not Googling blogs, hoping to find something or someone who agrees with me. That's to easy. You're so close-minded from reality that you actually believe their aren't any impartial sources who believe the Dot Com bubble started in 1997.
So, by your assessment, if the historic rate was 15% and it got down to 10.9%, then you would say 10.9% would be low???? Jesus, what can one say.
Yes, that is what below average means. If 15% is the average and 10% is the other data point, then 10% is low simply because it's 'below average.' Regardless of whether or not you personally believe that 10% is low is irrelevant. Math doesn't care for what your opinions are. It only cares about the results.
Well, lets take a look at ue rates in general, my economic expert:
You're still calling him an economic expert? His is just a political blogger.
The highest rate for a single month is shared by November and December of 1982 with an unemployment rate of 10.8%
The year with the highest average unemployment rate was 1982 with an average unemployment rate of 9.71%
The lowest rate for a single month is shared by May and June of 1953 with an unemployment rate of 2.5%
The year with the lowest average unemployment rate was 1953 with an average unemployment rate of 2.93%
From DaveManual, me dear.
Now, in 1948, the rate was under 3% on average for the year, and reached 2.5% for one month. That was a heavily war impacted time, nothing much normal about it.
Since 1970, there have been a total of 7 years where the ue rate has been below 5%.
A brief history of U.S. unemployment - The Washington Post
"a normal unemployment rate is 6 to 7 percent, with anything higher than that considered a high unemployment rate."
What Is a High Unemployment Rate?
Most economists believe we are at full employment when the unemployment rate is between 4 and 6%. This is known as the natural rate of unemployment. This rate changes over time as changes in our economy affect structural unemployment levels.
Chapter 6: Unemployment
Saying that 5% ue is average is interesting. Because it has happened only 8 years over the past 43. So a little hard to believe that you actually think that 5% is average. Only 14 years have been under 6%. Get the drift. That is why economists, in general, believe that an ue under 6% are low. Rates from 6 to 7% are average. During that same 43 year period, about 14 were above 7%.
So, you can say all you want that 5% was an average ue rate. But among those of us from the fact based world, you simply look stupid.
Hey genius, you are just cherry picking different points in history and neglected others. That is not how you calculated the average unemployment rate in US History. You calculate the average simply by adding up all the data points, and dividing them by the number of data points. Simplified: You add up all the unemployment rates and you divide them by the number of rates you have.
This is also why I said you need learn how to do REAL research, because if you were to go to the Bureau Labour of Statistics or the St. Louis Federal Reserve Database you would find that the average is not 6% - 7%.
The BLS records unemployment statistics as early as January 1948, and this is what I have found:
- On a monthly average, the historical US unemployment rate is 5.8%
- On a quarterly average, the historical US unemployment rate is 5.8%
- On a semi-annual average, the historical US unemployment is 5.8%
- On a annual average, the historical US unemployment is 5.8%
Now, I didn't skew the statistics or anything. I can even direct you on where I obtained the data and instruct you on how to compute the averages quickly on excel (=average(First Cell:Second Cell). But why do you think no matter whether or not I calculated the averages monthly or annual, that the numbers were the same?
Like I said before. Math doesn't care what your personal opinions are. It only cares about the results. What are the results? If you calculate the unemployment rate average throughout history, you will find that the historical unemployment rate for the US is 5.8%
Feel free to respond stating that I didn't get my data from a source you believe that is 'impartial,' or that I simply made up my data, or that 6% will really be the average if you round up 5.8%. As if any of this changes the fact that you are wrong.
Yes I do, but I am sure you are going to provide a painful explanation. Here is the deal, me dear, the blm provides the numbers monthly. So, what is your point???
What is the BLM?
No, me dear. What you just posted is a joke. We are, I believe, talking about the us ue rate, not that of another country. But, me dear, in addition to the above drivel, there are many other considerations. And we could spend all day. I know you think what you just wrote was smart, but you are truly ignorant about unemployment rates. Jesus, that was stupid.
I merely used Singapore as an example, and if you didn't understand, the perhaps you don't know as much about unemployment rates as you think you do. The labour force is a component of the unemployment rate. Certain countries will have a lower or higher unemployment rate simply due to their labour force participation (also due to some economic conditions in the region).
Now like what I said with my Singapore example, their highest unemployment rate is 6%, but somehow you would consider this average simply because you just believe that 6% is a low enough number to be considered average. That's not how averages work. You compute the unemployment rates throughout history to find your historical averages. You don't decide for yourself what the average is.
Only to tanya, who is an economic idiot.
According to math as well. You do understand that economic majors requires mathematical understanding as well, right? Funny how you have all of this economic background, and very little math skills...
I consider 5% very low. I would consider 6% low. See above, dipshit.
And of course, you would be wrong. The average unemployment rate is 5.8%. That is not low and 6% is higher than 5.8% so that cannot be considered low either (It's not high either. It's just 'above average.) You may personally believe that 5% is a low number but that doesn't change the fact that historically the unemployment rate as been much lower.
Really. You consider going to 10.8% nothing. Are you saying the ue rate did not rise?????
The unemployment rate did increase, but not as a result to any tax policy as I initially stated. The tightening of the monetary base crashed the economy in Paul Volcker's efforts to keep inflation under control.
Yup. That would be it. Decreasing spending did it. Jesus. What a joke.
I never said decreasing spending did it. I said nothing happened when spending increased. The fact that growth occurred when spending decrease is purely inconsequential. But just know that you are wrong when you said stimulus is what helped the unemployment rate.
So your charts would say. But then, they are cherry picked, and of no real value.
How are they cherry picked? You are crediting the decrease in unemployment with federal spending (stimulus). So I showed you the relationship between Federal Spending and Job Growth (on a monthly basis). Nothing cherry picked about it. If you don't like that data I have presented, the do your own research, look up the data and we can discuss the merits of your evidence like adults (well, like an adult explaining things to a child anyway).
You have no reality, me dear. Just an intent to rewrite history. Look, you can get plenty of your charts and lie like a rug. Just stay out there among the bat shit crazy web sites, and they will provide your information for you.
I caught you rewriting history four different times already so I don't think you are aware of what the real history is suppose to be. As I have said, if you believe that I am lying then look up the data for yourself.
Also, if you truly had an educational background in economics (like you said at the end of your last response), then you would understand all of the data I'm giving to you. The fact that you don't tells me (and everyone else) something. You haven't taken an economics course in your entire life.
Jesus, you are a clown. Like Supply Side is so complex. Jesus. Yes, I remember. But the four pillars, meant to be similar to the four pillars of Keynesian economics, were a simplistic set of ideas.
Supply Side is nothing like Keynesianism. It looks like you took my advice and Google Supply Side, only to be directed to faulty information.
Not sure I remember them precisely, but as I recall, lower taxes, decrease the size of gov, reduce gov regulation, and control the money supply to keep inflation low. Did not work, has never worked, and never will work.
Didn't work because it wasn't implemented. The only thing Reagan did was cut taxes.
Which is why you see no universities teaching much of anything about the policy any more, And why the chicago school of economics is about as popular as a turd in a punch bowl these days.
And how is that working out for the world. Also, keep in mind (since you are so hooked on consensus in winning debates) that more Austrian economist have won Noble Laureates in the field of Economist than any other type economic theorist.
Check how european austerity is working. And get after the fed to tighten the money supply. How damned profound is that.[/COLOR]
Only one country in the EU actually used Austerity, and that is Lithuania. And it worked. The rest of the EU countries cuts were too small relative to the size of their budgets. Then again, anything is austerity compared to what the US is doing.
But I love that Austerity when the spending actually increases and doesn't stop. Moody's downgrading the UK for a uncontrollable debt. Spain having the EU's largest budget deficit. Yep. They have austerity. And George Bush was a fiscal hawk.
And there is your major malfunction. You post dubius graphs, state theory, and back it with nothing. Sorry, your analysis is worth nothing to anyone except yourself. There are those out there who have done actual analysis. And that would not include you.
My theories, as you would call them, as my analysis. My graphs, as you would call them, are my backing. That's how a debate works. I understand this is unfamiliar to you because you are not use to actually doing research. You'll learn someday, although, I'm not sure when that day will be.
Again, my lying con, it is not a blog.
Yeah, sure. Not a blog...
You have your head so far up your ass trying to protect the con dogma that you have completely lost perspective. Sources that produce data are useful. Sources that provide services to access that data are useful. And sources that analyze that data from an impartial standpoint are highly useful. You see none of this, because you do not provide your actual sources, except the occasional gov agency name. You are simply stupid, not coherent.
Your first two examples are primary sources. Your last example is a secondary source. The purpose of a primary source is to give you the data straight from the horses mouth. It's not white washed or watered down. It's just straight as it is data.
The secondary
Good for you, and I have no reason to take anything from your charts. You know you are completely partial. Stupid idea. Stupid sentence.
You are saying that I am partial but you have been spouting this 'bat shit crazy right wing' rhetoric from the beginning as if you are not partial. You're right. Thank you for providing me with that stupid sentence.
And even if I was partial, are you saying that you can't take my evidence into consideration because of this? I've never heard of such a stupid reason to dismiss evidence I didn't like in my entire life. Facts are something about the world which is true. Facts don't bend to the will of any particular person or ideology simply because you like certain points of view better than others.
You need to grow up. In more ways than one.
I provide sources. Always have. I do not create my own charts and ask you to trust them. Nor do I, like you, create charts that have the timelines I want, and pick the data elements I want to show. Besides, you have given me plenty of reason to not trust you in the slightest.
I create charts because I have limitations with the data provided for me. There is nothing wrong with that. All I do is download the data from a primary source, put it on an excel spreadsheet and create the chart. All economic and financial experts do it (and it's really easy, as there are videos on how to do it on YouTube). It's already a given that you are far from an economic or financial expert.
I really don't care if you don't trust the data I present. That is not my concern. I present data from primary sources which backs up my claims. You have yet to do the same.
Like the whole effort to prove the Clinton economy was based on a capital gains tax decrease. Jesus, you even provided charts on that one. But you will not even try to find an economist that agrees with you. Funny.[/COLOR]
I never said the Clinton economy was based on a capital gains tax decrease. You used Clinton as an example and I corrected you with the facts. The biggest success with the Clinton economy as due to an asset bubble. Was this good? No. Asset bubbles are seen as phony prosperity. It doesn't change the fact that none of it was due to stimulus and good portion of the growth was Capital Gains tax cut.
Well, there you go. The Reagan admin had nothing to worry about. Did not need to raise taxes 11 times and Borrow Like Crazy. Maybe they just did not have a problem, as you are trying to say. Which lines up with only one source: The bat shit crazy con web sits. Perfect alignment. Again.
Reagan ran up deficits to aggressively expand the military. The borrowing was the result of the deficit (as they are with every deficit in American history). The taxes were (not necessarily a Reagan plan, but the Democratically controlled congress plan) were an initiative to balance the budget. All of this was Reagan's plan to compete with the Soviet union in producing a military superpower which they could not keep up with, and eventually collapsed. Did you sleep under a rock during the world war?
No amount of Reagan spending was stimulus, as it was only for the military. It did nothing to help the economy. Except grant the United States the title of Debtor Nation or the first time in history. Congratulation...
No, not necessarily. Not, for instance for the last couple years of the Clinton admin.
The national debt increased in the last few years of the Clinton Administration. You don't know what you are saying.
They started, and the borrowing started, as soon as the deficit and ue problem was understood.
I don't know how you think deficits work, but borrowing is always going on as long as the country is running a deficit. There was no starting period in the Reagan administration.
You may notice that the ue rate was 10.9% in late 82. So you would like everyone to believe that the ue rate should have gone down like a rocket as a result of stimulus spending. It NEVER does. Unemployment is always the last indicator to come down. The ue rate dropped by 2% in 1983, about 1% in 1984, about .35 in 1985, and about .1% in 1986, .9% in 1987, and .4% in 1988, and .1% in 1989. So, your great hope, the 1986 tax decrease lowered the rate, if you believe that was all that was going on, by something like 1 to 1.5%
Before, you said that it was the result of borrowing, taxing and stimulus which made the unemployment rate decrease. Now you are saying that never does. It doesn't take stimulus 3 years to effect the economy. That only happens when it clearly isn't working.
Mathematically, there are only two ways you are going to get the unemployment rate down:
- If the unemployed civilians leave the labour force.
- If the unemployed civilians find jobs.
The first option is what happened in 1982 -1983. People were leaving the labour force. If people are leaving, then this is not a sign of a recovering job market. The second option is what happened in 1986 onward. People were entering the labour force and finding work. As a result, the unemployment rate dropped. I showed you a chart illustrating this. Perhaps you missed it.
Right. How the hell do you write these statements and look yourself in the mirror. See the above. Must be that damned davemanual site, eh. Or could it be that you are lying again. From its high in dec of 82 until mid 86, the ue rate had dropped by 3% and was still dropping. typical of a stimulus. And was probably still going to keep on dropping as long as gov spending kept on keeping on. The tax decrease did very little Most likely under 1%.
Again, Government spending didn't stop and it did nothing for unemployment. Government spending had very little relationship on Job Growth.
No, it does not. And sure, I am going to use your graphs. Look at your statements, and how they wash with the actual numbers.
Well, that would make you totally devoid of economic understanding. The spending from any stimulus ALWAYS decreases year after year. You spend as much as possibly early, to generate private employment. Did you expect those stimulus spending numbers to keep going UP??? Never, ever have, and never ever will. Now, that is truly just basic, and I mean basic, logic. I thought you were telling me how smart you were. I am so disappointed.
\
I'm not even Keynesian and I can't even tell you how stupid that sounds. That's not how stimulus works. Stimulus spending remains consistent overtime and is concentrated in longer periods, not in just one financial quarter. It's meant to be spent in portions, not as much as possible early. The idea is to MAINTAIN economy growth, not just to have it all shoved in one fiscal quarter. If anyone did that, the economic growth would be maintained more than two financial quarters, and the economy would just go back into a recession.
For example, the Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act was spent over the course of two years. The idea is to keep the rate of spending steady. As you can see from 2009 to 2011, spending increased, then it leveled off at a steady rate, then it decreased dramatically once it expired. This pattern is typical of stimulus spending:
But what happened in the 90's was nothing similar. Most of the biggest spending happened before Clinton even got there. Then Clinton got into office and the rate of spending decrease dramatically. No amount of spending was consistent or prolonged.
Government spending was 40% of GDP when Clinton took Office. It was less than 40% of GDP the following year, even though spending did grow.
It was the result of a strong economy. And low unemployment. And a .com bubble. And the alignment of the sun. The spending helped. Though you will never admit it. Because you are a con tool.
Private sector spending and Gross personal investments grew much Government spending. Compared to those components of GDP, government spending barely budged. Government spending barely a factor at all.
It's quite clear you don't understand what you are talking about, and are just making things up. As usual.
You can get all sorts of distorted analysis using fed reserve numbers from the bat shit crazy con web sites. As I am sure you know.
But they support my 'distorted analysis.' The data doesn't care about ideology or political alignment. All that matters are the facts.
That would be your opinion. And you know how much I value your opinion.
Oh of course, you not Dave Manuel. I forgot, you do know an economist (ie, he is not an economist).
Really funny thing, one of my fishing buddies is an economist. I'll have to tell him I do not know him.
Anyone can be an economist. Just talk about nothing but economics all day. It might make you an economist, but it's not the same as being competent.
Hopefully, you do not believe that it is a blog. If so, look up blog and try again. And if you would like to put some money up that I can not produce a ba in econ, let me know. Lets see if you have any backbone.
My degree wasn't in Economics. Along with this I have a Series 7. It was in Finance. Your money doesn't mean much to me. I make a very good living already. Credentials doesn't matter at all when it comes to a debate. All that matters are the facts that are presented. I have refuted loads of people in the financial community who though they were right simply because they were older or more experienced. I am able to read between the lines because I have a fundamental understanding of Economics.
The same level of understanding as not helped you. You simply believe you are correct because you have found someone else in authority who agrees with you. Again, that's too easy, old and tired.
The joke is on you. You have provided me with loads of internet entertainment. It's also a good thing that I don't have to spend much time writing these because this would have consumed most of my time. Other than your bitching about verifiable primary sources, lying about evidence presented, making up your own opinions, facts and history, this has been a big source of entertainment around here. It would be really fun, if only you were so incredibility ignorant. Ignorance is never good. You need some school. I can't always be there to give it to you...