Oil discoveries dispel "Peak Oil" as myth

mdn2000

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We are finding new oil reserves every year, maybe not the USA but other countries. Brazil is extremely active and in the last couple years they have become Oil independent. Soon if not today they hope to be an exporter of petroleum.

Seems like professor's and scientist's theories are proven wrong, what is theory of Peak Oil in light of recent petroleum discoveries.

OilVoice | Petrobras Announces Discovery of Light Oil to the South of Santos Basin

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras announces that it has confirmed the presence of light oil in well 1-BRSA-870-SPS (1-SPS-76), located to the south of Santos Basin, in sandstones reservoirs, similar to those found in the accumulations of Tiro and Sidon. The discovery is located around 15 km of the Tiro and Sidon area.
This discovery confirms the success of the exploratory strategy in the search for the formation of a new production hub in the southeastern part of Santos Basin which may be integrated by a series of already discovered fields, such as Caravela, Cavalo Marinho, Coral and Tiro-Sidon, as well as others to be discovered or in evaluation process, such as that of well 1-BRSA-870-SPS in the Marujá prospect.
 

JiggsCasey

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LOL.... you read the story, didn't you? What's the total they think they've found? Curiously no mention of that. Yawn.

These "finds" pop up all the time, and every time, "nothing to see here" clowns insist it's evidence of oil abundance. Then, they get pinned down on acknowledging the figures, and they're forced to admit proven reserve totals in the tens of millions, or perhaps 2-3 billion barrels, at best. Every time.

Talk to me when you can allude to a centralized find of proven light crude in excess of 20-100 billion. Because that's what we used to find 2-3 times per year in the 40s, 50s and 60s, and that's what our empire is built upon. And we need to find about 7 "Ghawars" just to maintain stasis, going forward, let alone growth.

*edit* yup, as expected... 280 million barrels. Yawn-tacular.

Preliminary analysis indicates that the Campos Basin has recoverable volumes of 280 million barrels of light oil. Geologically similar reservoirs had already been identified in the Santos Basin by drilling two wells in the Marlin Sul field. These discoveries are a result of the efforts and the modern technology that the company has been using in other production areas.?

We use 85 million barrels each and every day. So I guess 3.5 days of new oil is "proof" that "everything is fine, and Hubbert's curve is some "myth". :rolleyes:

Do better.
 
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mdn2000

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Brazil has found oil, its changed the import/export dynamic, for the first time Brazil is now an exporter of oil.

Brazil has increased use of oil domestically and has gone from being an importer of oil to an exporter.

Peak oil, if you listen and read you will notice its called Peak Oil Production, as in we have reached refinery capacity, as far as reserves go, we have no way of estimating how large the current reserves are let alone how large unknown discoveries are.

Latest Brazil Oil Find Could Be World's Largest In 20 Years - WSJ.com

RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--The latest oil and gas find in Brazil's ballyhooed presalt offshore region could be the biggest yet discovered in the world's pre-eminent deepwater frontier, and perhaps the largest the world has seen in two decades, a government official said Monday.

The Libra prospect is estimated to hold reserves of between 7 billion and 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, Marco Antonio Almeida, the secretary for oil, gas and renewable fuels at Brazil's Mines and Energy Ministry, told the Rio Oil & Gas 2010 conference.

The estimate was made by Gaffney Cline & Associates, or GCA, which was hired by the government to audit reserves, and was based on seismic data and similarities to nearby areas, said Almeida, adding that an appraisal well to confirm the numbers should be completed in 30 days.

"We expect it to be the world's largest discovery in the past 20 years," Almeida said.

Libra is the latest in a series of oil discoveries made deep below the ocean bed in the Santos Basin, off the coasts of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo states in southeastern Brazil. The oil lies more than 2,000 meters underwater, and an additional 5,000 meters below sand, rock and a shifting layer of salt--giving rise to the region's pre-salt moniker.

The hubbub surrounding this region started in 2007, when the country unveiled the Tupi prospect in the Santos Basin, which was estimated to hold between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels, making it the Western Hemisphere's largest discovery since Mexico's Cantarell nearly three decades ago.

If confirmed, Libra could end up being larger than Tupi, Almeida said.

Libra will be the first of Brazil's presalt oilfields to be auctioned off under the new production-sharing regime proposed by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last year. The measure still needs to be passed by Brazil's Congress, which could take place after the country's October national election
 

JiggsCasey

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"Oil equivalent?"

Again, your article seems very shy about stating PROVEN reserves. Tricky language like "could contain as much as...." doesn't convince anyone of anything. Regardless, 5-8 billion barrels of "oil equivalent" off the coast of Brazil isn't gonna do much of anything for global peak.

Worse, mocking peak because of this piddly find is the very definition of hubris.
 
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mdn2000

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"Oil equivalent?"

Again, your article seems very shy about stating PROVEN reserves. Tricky language like "could contain as much as...." doesn't convince anyone of anything. Regardless, 5-8 billion barrels of "oil equivalent" off the coast of Brazil isn't gonna do much of anything for global peak.

Worse, mocking peak because of this piddly find is the very definition of hubris.
I know my article lacked what you pointed out earlier, I expected this response and have no retort.

I understand the failings of links and articles to prove points.

Still, its a fact Brazil has become an exporter of oil.

What does the BP disaster teach us about peak oil, that there are known reserves of such great magnitude its extremely dangerous to tap said oil reserve.

Anyhow, I agree my articles do not prove a point, I can say the last four years of going to Brazil I have seen offshore oil platforms being built and super-tankers converted to offshore oil processing platforms, as built by Halliburton, which reminds me I have met Halliburton engineers in Brazil as well as dozens of platform workers.

Make no mistake, the oil industry in Brazil is growing, and not by a little bit, will they pass Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, I dont think so, but they are the experts at finding deep oil offshore.

New discoveries in Brazil, accounted for in the Peak Oil theory, without googling, I say no.
 

KissMy

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The science quoted by the doomers below said we should have been out of oil 100 years ago. Amazing, Its a miracle we survived. God has obviously put more oil in the ground for the last hundred years.:lol:

In 1919 the director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines predicted that "within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline."

That same year, National Geographic magazine predicted that oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production.

In January 1920, Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey, in commenting upon our oil supply stated: "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious."

In May 1920, Dr. Smith said: "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both.

In 1920, David White, of the United States Geological Survey, stated: "On the whole, therefore, we must expect that, unless our consumption is checked, we shall by 1925 be dependent on foreign oil fields to the extent of 150,000,000 barrels and possibly as much as 200,000,000 of crude each year, except insofar as the situation may at that time, perhaps, be helped to a slight extent by shale oil. Add to this probability that within 5 years--perhaps 3 years only--our domestic production will begin to fall off with increasing rapidity, due to the exhaustion of our reserves"
The chart below shows new production capacity is outpacing actual production. Demand cannot keep pace with the new supplies of fuels added to capacity. We also have a glut of oil in storage. The price of oil is dropping even as the US Dollar weakens. THERE IS NO PEAK OIL.

Total World oil production capacity in July 2010 increased by 820,000 b/d from June 2010 from 90.16 to 90.98 million b/d. World production capacity is measured here as the sum of world liquids production excluding biofuels plus total OPEC spare capacity excluding Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria.



Oil Trades Near 1-Month Low After U.S. Supplies Rise to Highest in Decades

The U.S. Energy Department report yesterday showed that total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years.


Growth is possible once Doomocrats are out of office.
 

JBeukema

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we have no way of estimating how large the current reserves are let alone how large unknown discoveries are.
Which means there's no evidence of some mystical hidden reserve that will save us all. We can't afford to assume more will magically appear- especially with more nations becoming industrialized and demand increasing.

Not the mention that so many of the reserves are in unfriendly nations. We might find more and extend the date, but it remains a finite and non-renewable resource.
 

JBeukema

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[ame=http://www.amazon.com/Internal-Combustion-Corporations-Governments-Alternatives/dp/0312359071]Amazon.com: Internal Combustion: How Corporations and Governments Addicted the World to Oil and Derailed the Alternatives (9780312359072): Edwin Black: Books[/ame]
 

JBeukema

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The science quoted by the doomers below said we should have been out of oil 100 years ago. Amazing, Its a miracle we survived. God has obviously put more oil in the ground for the last hundred years.:lol:

In 1919 the director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines predicted that "within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline."

That same year, National Geographic magazine predicted that oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production.

In January 1920, Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey, in commenting upon our oil supply stated: "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious."

In May 1920, Dr. Smith said: "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both.
We are, in fact, dependent on foreign oil

Total World oil production capacity in July 2010 increased by 820,000 b/d from June 2010 from 90.16 to 90.98 million b/d.
Increase in rate of use does not mean more magically appears to replace it. If I drive faster, i burn more gas. All that means is I run out faster.
 

Defiant1

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We are finding new oil reserves every year, maybe not the USA but other countries. Brazil is extremely active and in the last couple years they have become Oil independent. Soon if not today they hope to be an exporter of petroleum.

Seems like professor's and scientist's theories are proven wrong, what is theory of Peak Oil in light of recent petroleum discoveries.

OilVoice | Petrobras Announces Discovery of Light Oil to the South of Santos Basin

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras announces that it has confirmed the presence of light oil in well 1-BRSA-870-SPS (1-SPS-76), located to the south of Santos Basin, in sandstones reservoirs, similar to those found in the accumulations of Tiro and Sidon. The discovery is located around 15 km of the Tiro and Sidon area.
This discovery confirms the success of the exploratory strategy in the search for the formation of a new production hub in the southeastern part of Santos Basin which may be integrated by a series of already discovered fields, such as Caravela, Cavalo Marinho, Coral and Tiro-Sidon, as well as others to be discovered or in evaluation process, such as that of well 1-BRSA-870-SPS in the Marujá prospect.
Be careful. If you destroy the "Peak Oilers" belief system they may have to go back to church.
 

JiggsCasey

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I know my article lacked what you pointed out earlier, I expected this response and have no retort.

I understand the failings of links and articles to prove points.

Still, its a fact Brazil has become an exporter of oil.

What does the BP disaster teach us about peak oil, that there are known reserves of such great magnitude its extremely dangerous to tap said oil reserve.

Anyhow, I agree my articles do not prove a point, I can say the last four years of going to Brazil I have seen offshore oil platforms being built and super-tankers converted to offshore oil processing platforms, as built by Halliburton, which reminds me I have met Halliburton engineers in Brazil as well as dozens of platform workers.

Make no mistake, the oil industry in Brazil is growing, and not by a little bit, will they pass Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, I dont think so, but they are the experts at finding deep oil offshore.

New discoveries in Brazil, accounted for in the Peak Oil theory, without googling, I say no.
So, you create a thread titled "discoveres dispel peak is a myth" and then concede that it doesn't show that at all.

Once again, of course there are going to be discoveries here and there. Tiny discoveries compared to what we used to find. Irrelevant finds, up against ever-increasing demand. The point is, as confirmed by the USGS and the IEA, is that new discoveries are not keeping up with existing dying capacity.... and haven't for 20+ years.
 
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rdean

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The science quoted by the doomers below said we should have been out of oil 100 years ago. Amazing, Its a miracle we survived. God has obviously put more oil in the ground for the last hundred years.:lol:

In 1919 the director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines predicted that "within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline."

That same year, National Geographic magazine predicted that oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production.

In January 1920, Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey, in commenting upon our oil supply stated: "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious."

In May 1920, Dr. Smith said: "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both.

In 1920, David White, of the United States Geological Survey, stated: "On the whole, therefore, we must expect that, unless our consumption is checked, we shall by 1925 be dependent on foreign oil fields to the extent of 150,000,000 barrels and possibly as much as 200,000,000 of crude each year, except insofar as the situation may at that time, perhaps, be helped to a slight extent by shale oil. Add to this probability that within 5 years--perhaps 3 years only--our domestic production will begin to fall off with increasing rapidity, due to the exhaustion of our reserves"
The chart below shows new production capacity is outpacing actual production. Demand cannot keep pace with the new supplies of fuels added to capacity. We also have a glut of oil in storage. The price of oil is dropping even as the US Dollar weakens. THERE IS NO PEAK OIL.

Total World oil production capacity in July 2010 increased by 820,000 b/d from June 2010 from 90.16 to 90.98 million b/d. World production capacity is measured here as the sum of world liquids production excluding biofuels plus total OPEC spare capacity excluding Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria.



Oil Trades Near 1-Month Low After U.S. Supplies Rise to Highest in Decades

The U.S. Energy Department report yesterday showed that total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years.


Growth is possible once Doomocrats are out of office.
You have got to be a Republican. They are the only ones who use "science" from "1919" to make some kind of "point".







http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/public...ion/Discovering_the_Underground_Structure.cfm
 
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CrusaderFrank

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The Space program has made a total mockery of the twin notions of "Peak Oil" and that Earth based hydrocarbons are "Fossil Fuels"

The planets and even moons are awash in hydrocarbons and there were never dinosaurs on any of them.
 
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CrusaderFrank

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Hydrocarbon lake finally confirmed on Titan | COSMOS magazine

"Cassini's visual and mapping instrument observed a lake – Ontario Lacus – in Titan's south polar region during a close Cassini flyby in December 2007. The lake is roughly 20,000 square kilometres in area, slightly larger than its namesake, North America's Lake Ontario. "

And it's a lake of "Fossil fuels"! Eeek! How did the velicoraptors get to Titan????
 
R

rdean

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This is cute:

OPEC will never run out of oil | Energy Bulletin

OPEC member countries now hold over 1 trillion barrels of crude oil reserves, having already produced 400 billion barrels since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was founded 50 years ago, Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi said Tuesday.

"When it was founded, the members of the organization had around 300 billion barrels of oil reserves and in the last 50 years, has produced over 400 billion barrels," Naimi told a symposium marking the group's 50th anniversary.

"[OPEC] still has more than 1 trillion barrels, which places it in a unique position in terms of reserves to continue supplying petroleum to the world for several long years and to exploit these reserves for the benefit of future generations," he added.

It's quite amazing—Ali al-Naimi is bragging about OPEC's fraudulent reserves accounting! Seriously, Homo sapiens is about 200,000 years old in the fossil record. Is this the best we can do?
 

CrusaderFrank

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This is cute:

<Snipping stuff Rdean doesn't understand anyway>

Seriously, Homo sapiens is about 200,000 years old in the fossil record. Is this the best we can do?[/B]
Clearly not, maybe you should stop posting? That would help
 

JiggsCasey

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The science quoted by the doomers below said we should have been out of oil 100 years ago. Amazing, Its a miracle we survived. God has obviously put more oil in the ground for the last hundred years.:lol:
We've been over this, and you bailed from the exchange. The fact that you're attempting to trot out the same irrelevancy to a newer audience doesn't change the fail of your tired rationale. Short term capacity based on an influx of heavy carbon liquids is not evidence of "plenty." It's evidence of desperate (and far more expensive) measures to keep feeding the beast.

The chart below shows new production capacity is outpacing actual production. Demand cannot keep pace with the new supplies of fuels added to capacity. We also have a glut of oil in storage. The price of oil is dropping even as the US Dollar weakens. THERE IS NO PEAK OIL.
Oil storage "glut" is very short term. That's like saying "we have two gallons of milk in the fridge, that should get a family of four through the winter." Tool.

Total World oil production capacity in July 2010 increased by 820,000 b/d from June 2010 from 90.16 to 90.98 million b/d.
It's adorable watching flat earthers allude to month-to-month comparisons as evidence of long term trends. World light crude production has remained flat since 2004. That's well documented, cool guy.

World production capacity is measured here as the sum of world liquids production excluding biofuels plus total OPEC spare capacity excluding Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria.

You must be stuck on stupid.

All you've done is shown mankind's desperate and increased reliance on heavy oil - shale and tar sands. Light crude has flatlined, THAT is the issue here. Heavy oils that return a 1.5:1 or 2:1 ratio are devastating to oil companies, and will not sustain us going forward.

You really have NO IDEA what you're talking about, and that was painfully evidence last time you entered the fray on this issue. Educate yourself, and examine the executive summary of the latest IEA report that came out last week.

The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply
and consumption are patently unsustainable — environmentally, economically,
socially.

((Cliffs: "Despite our own data, and despite what our own former chief Fatih Birol says over and over again, we don't believe in peak oil. ... That being said, if vital investment and global consensus is actually met in order to cover our as-yet unknown light blue wedge below, industrial nations be relatively fine for 30 years. ... If it's not met -- and we don't really know how it will be met -- and the capital and initiative is not there, we're quite f*cked... and very soon.))

IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Now Out; a Preliminary Look
Posted by Gail the Actuary on November 9, 2010 - 10:40am
Topic: Supply/Production

The International Energy Agency issued its annual energy forecast today for 2010. It consists of a three volume report, plus an executive summary and a press release. The website can be found here.

In the next few weeks, we will be analyzing the report. At this point, we can only point to a few of the summary findings. One clear concern is that demand will be rising--especially from China and India. Another is that prices (in inflation-adjusted terms) will be rising. A third concern is that conventional oil production will no longer be able to rise.



The above scenario shows conventional crude oil on a plateau to 2035 at a level below recent production. This graph is from the "New Policies" scenario, so reflects some cutback in demand as a result of governmental policies from what the reference scenario would assume.

...

The size of ultimately recoverable resources of both conventional and unconventional oil is a major source of uncertainty for the long&#8208;term outlook for world oil production.

But if governments do nothing or little more than at present, then demand will continue to increase, supply costs will rise, the economic burden of oil use will grow, vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase and the global environment will suffer serious damage.
[/QUOTE]

The U.S. Energy Department report yesterday showed that total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years.
[/quote]

Again, stockpiles in tankers are not longterm capacity. Perhaps some day, your limited head will get around that fact.
 

JBeukema

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Hydrocarbon lake finally confirmed on Titan | COSMOS magazine

"Cassini's visual and mapping instrument observed a lake – Ontario Lacus – in Titan's south polar region during a close Cassini flyby in December 2007. The lake is roughly 20,000 square kilometres in area, slightly larger than its namesake, North America's Lake Ontario. "

And it's a lake of "Fossil fuels"! Eeek! How did the velicoraptors get to Titan????
I get the distinct impression that you're an idiot
 

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