Obama Widens Lead Over Romney

[Jroc]

Obama can't break 50% he's a loser

Um, I would suggest you look at polls from 2008. Obama didn't break the 50% wall in the RCP average until October.

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Right now should be the Weird Mormon Robot's best moment. Going into his convention, he ought to be leading right now. Even Walter Mondale had a 2% lead going into the convention in 1984.

But... not so much.

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

 

[JoeB131]

You have a problem with reading comprehension. I didn't say Mormons or Catholics vote in blocks. I was speaking of bigotry towards Mormons and Catholics.

I got it. I just thought it was stupid. Most Catholics are kind of nervous about the ultra-Catholic types like Santorum and Ryan. The ones who think we should take the men in dresses seriously.

You're right. Folks hated Bush more than they hate Obama. Mainly because the type of people that hated Bush hate pretty much everything this country stands for.

Hold on here. Do you really think that? That the 59 million people who voted against Bush in 2004 "hate America and everything it stands for". I voted for Bush, but a lot of people had valid complaints about the way he got elected, the way he conducted the war and what his priorities were.

Also, they had a lot of help from the media in developing that hatred. Right now people fear what Obama will do more than anything. If they got to know him better and knew what he intends to do they would hate him.

I think you need to get out of your talk radio/USMB shell. Most people I talk to aren't even tuned into this. They aren't happy with the economy, but know Obama got a mess when he started. They think he's inept, but a good guy. In short, you'd have to make a really compelling case to change horses in mid-stream, and the Weird Mormon Robot hasn't made it.

A lot of people that voted for Obama are extremely disappointed in him. That's enough for them not to vote for him even if they dislike Romney. It worked against McCain. Many on the right didn't show up to vote. I don't think that will be as much of a problem this time.

Okay, we got to do this again.

Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he got in 2012.
CLinton got 3 million more votes in 1996 than he got in 1992.
Reagan got 10 million more votes in 1984 than he got in 1990.
Nixon(!) got 16 million more votes in 1972 than he got in 1968.

Do you really think that there weren't people who were "Oh my God!" about Nixon in 1972?

Now, yeah, Bush-41 got 9 million less votes and Carter got 5 million less votes... but those went to third party candidates. Third parties give you an out. You can change your mind without admitting you were wrong.

Another point. the magical "Well, there were people who didn't show up for McCain, but they'll be there for Romney!"

Really, where?

Bush got 62 million votes in 2004. McCain got 59 million. WHich is to say, he probably got about 95% or so of the people who went for Bush.

Obama got 10 million more votes than Kerry (who got 8 million more votes than Al Gore) Maybe 3 million of those were folks who voted for Bush, but unlikely.

Fact is, there was less enthusiasm for Republicans in 2012, not more.

 

[rightwinger]

And here's the kicker:

Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%), Not sure/Refused(3%)

AND

3.5 is the margin of error.

So Obama's lead could easily be as high, or higher, than the FOX poll.

It means there was an oversampling of Democrats by 5 points.

Or does it mean that it accurately reflects the political affiliation of the sample. You don't do polls by saying "I am going to ask 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats". You call 100 people at random and ask their opinion.

Why do all polls suddenly show more Democrats than Republicans? has there been an ideological shift? Even Rassmussen and Fox are showing more Democrats

 

[JoeB131]

Obama can't break 50% he's a loser

Um, I would suggest you look at polls from 2008. Obama didn't break the 50% wall in the RCP average until October.

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Right now should be the Weird Mormon Robot's best moment. Going into his convention, he ought to be leading right now. Even Walter Mondale had a 2% lead going into the convention in 1984.

But... not so much.

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

Wow, guy, I think I should just let the hilarity speak for itself...

 

[rightwinger]

Obama can't break 50% he's a loser

Um, I would suggest you look at polls from 2008. Obama didn't break the 50% wall in the RCP average until October.

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Right now should be the Weird Mormon Robot's best moment. Going into his convention, he ought to be leading right now. Even Walter Mondale had a 2% lead going into the convention in 1984.

But... not so much.

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

 

[Jroc]

Um, I would suggest you look at polls from 2008. Obama didn't break the 50% wall in the RCP average until October.

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Right now should be the Weird Mormon Robot's best moment. Going into his convention, he ought to be leading right now. Even Walter Mondale had a 2% lead going into the convention in 1984.

But... not so much.

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

What are they approving of? Romneys not president Obama is

 

[rightwinger]

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

What are they approving of? Romneys not president Obama is

Approving of Romneys fitness to do the job, like ability, political platform

Ultimately, voters have to say.......I want Romney to direct this country for the next four years. Based on recent polls, so far they are not

 

[Jroc]

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

What are they approving of? Romneys not president Obama is

Approving of Romneys fitness to do the job, like ability, political platform

Ultimately, voters have to say.......I want Romney to direct this country for the next four years. Based on recent polls, so far they are not

Wasn't much of a factor with Obama was it? Obama has always been unfit to be president. People fell for the production that was "Hope & Change" Romney is very qualified to be President and with Paul Ryan they will turn this country around....G-d willing

 

[mudwhistle]

Um, I would suggest you look at polls from 2008. Obama didn't break the 50% wall in the RCP average until October.

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Right now should be the Weird Mormon Robot's best moment. Going into his convention, he ought to be leading right now. Even Walter Mondale had a 2% lead going into the convention in 1984.

But... not so much.

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

No President has ever been re-elected with less than 50%
Obama is currently at 43% and sinking.

 

[Black_Label]

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

No President has ever been re-elected with less than 50%
Obama is currently at 43% and sinking.

With Obama running against such a clown like Willard that his own party can't stand, Obama looks like he will make history again

 

[rightwinger]

Obama is an incombant that makes all the differance. if he can't break 50% he's toast. Obama's going no where but down his approval numbers suck. Romney hasn't really even started on Obama yet while Obama is spending tons of money, more than he's bringing in Mondale didn't lead shit

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

No President has ever been re-elected with less than 50%
Obama is currently at 43% and sinking.

Run with that

Meanwhile, nobody has ever been elected without a majority of electoral votes. And Romney now trails miserably.

 

[waltky]

Uncle Ferd says dey gonna be runnin' neck n' neck till `lection day...

... den some hangin' chad...

... or Diebold computer program...

... gonna decide the outcome.

 

[mudwhistle]

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

No President has ever been re-elected with less than 50%
Obama is currently at 43% and sinking.

With Obama running against such a clown like Willard that his own party can't stand, Obama looks like he will make history again

The problem with that is the clown in the white house.

 

[mudwhistle]

How are Romneys approval numbers?

Obama doesn't have to beat 50%, he has to beat Romney

No President has ever been re-elected with less than 50%
Obama is currently at 43% and sinking.

Run with that

Meanwhile, nobody has ever been elected without a majority of electoral votes. And Romney now trails miserably.

Actually it's fairly close. Obama used to have 270, but now he's down to 237
Which is less than he needs to get re-elected even when the sampling was weighted in his favor by 9%.

 

[8537]

Which is less than he needs to get re-elected even when the sampling was weighted in his favor by 9%.

How do you believe the sampling should be weighted?

 

[whitehall]

Investors daily/Christian science monitor? Yeah I bet they are right on the cutting edge polling only democrats.

 

[rightwinger]

No President has ever been re-elected with less than 50%
Obama is currently at 43% and sinking.

Run with that

Meanwhile, nobody has ever been elected without a majority of electoral votes. And Romney now trails miserably.

Actually it's fairly close. Obama used to have 270, but now he's down to 237
Which is less than he needs to get re-elected even when the sampling was weighted in his favor by 9%.

Obama has 237 to Romneys 191 with twelve swing states still in play. Romney will essentially need to win nine of the twelve to get 270. Problem is that he trails in ten of those twelve states.

Much more telling than Obamas 47% approval rating

 

[rightwinger]

Investors daily/Christian science monitor? Yeah I bet they are right on the cutting edge polling only democrats.

Investors Daily and Christian Science Monitor favors Democrats?

 

[mudwhistle]

Which is less than he needs to get re-elected even when the sampling was weighted in his favor by 9%.

How do you believe the sampling should be weighted?

I don't think it should be weighted one way or another. Accuracy counts for something.

Each state should be counted with the same factors taken into account.

I figure most Republicans don't want to be bothered. Liberals are anxious to dissuade lingering doubts they have about Obama so they're more likely to repond. The only accurate standard is likely voters and Rasmussen has Romney leading by 3. The only reason Obama has a prayer is Democrat control of California and New York. Without them he'd be history.

 

[8537]

Which is less than he needs to get re-elected even when the sampling was weighted in his favor by 9%.

How do you believe the sampling should be weighted?

I don't think it should be weighted one way or another. Accuracy counts for something.

well good, because the random sample isn't weighted.