Obama Widens Lead Over Romney

[mudwhistle]

So Obama's lead could easily be as high, or higher, than the FOX poll.

It means there was an oversampling of Democrats by 5 points.

Sounds right to me.

Democrats

I noticed all of the Libs graphs end before 2009.

2010 we smoked your asses and we'll do it again. The reason......Republicans now outnumber Democrats by 4 points.

Enthusiasm for Obama is waning.......while enthusiasm for the GOP ticket is sky-rocketing. Obama draws a few hundred people and Romney/Ryan are drawing thousands.

The only poll that polls likely voters Rassmunsen has Romney leading Obama by 4 points.

 

[JoeB131]

Muddy, are you applying for that job as the Iraqi Information Minister?

"Romney is totally going to win this thing. Really!"

 

[mudwhistle]

Muddy, are you applying for that job as the Iraqi Information Minister?

"Romney is totally going to win this thing. Really!"

Likely voters are voters that actually are likely to vote, not lean one way or another.

That is the point of this after all. You want to know how people that plan on voting would vote.

Try spinning that.

 

[mudwhistle]

This is why Obama is pushing his lawsuits against states that are trying to make their voters rolls legit and accurate. He knows the election is pretty close and he knows that if the votes are counted accurately he most likely will lose.

Obama has never won an election without pulling some kind of stunt. Never.

 

[JoeB131]

Muddy, are you applying for that job as the Iraqi Information Minister?

"Romney is totally going to win this thing. Really!"

Likely voters are voters that actually are likely to vote, not lean one way or another.

That is the point of this after all. You want to know how people that plan on voting would vote.

Try spinning that.

Fact is, 69 MILLION people voted for Obama last time. Romney hasn't won them over.

Historically, the Democrats have increased their vote total in every election since 1980, and incumbants usually improve their performance unless there is a third party siphoning away votes (Anderson in 1980, Perot in 1992). Even in a depressed year, Obama an probably get about 72 million votes.

So Romney has to get all 59 million people who voted for McCain last time, and then he has to find another 14 million or so to get ahead of Obama.

And he has to be able to do that when 10% of Republicans and 18% of Independents WILL NOT VOTE FOR A MORMON.

Good luck with that, really.

So you all sold out to the Mormon Cult, and will have nothing to show for it. It's not like I didn't warn you that you were making a bad deal.

 

[JoeB131]

This is why Obama is pushing his lawsuits against states that are trying to make their voters rolls legit and accurate. He knows the election is pretty close and he knows that if the votes are counted accurately he most likely will lose.

Obama has never won an election without pulling some kind of stunt. Never.

He's pushing lawsuits against attempts to suppress the votes of the poor, as he should. Federal law requires it...

Did you just sleep in history class when they were discussing the whole Jim Crow thing?

 

[beretta304]

This is why Obama is pushing his lawsuits against states that are trying to make their voters rolls legit and accurate. He knows the election is pretty close and he knows that if the votes are counted accurately he most likely will lose.

Obama has never won an election without pulling some kind of stunt. Never.

Smear campaigning is his only tactic...and people are onto him. He is as useless as the Pope's balls.

 

[mudwhistle]

Muddy, are you applying for that job as the Iraqi Information Minister?

"Romney is totally going to win this thing. Really!"

Likely voters are voters that actually are likely to vote, not lean one way or another.

That is the point of this after all. You want to know how people that plan on voting would vote.

Try spinning that.

Fact is, 69 MILLION people voted for Obama last time. Romney hasn't won them over.

Historically, the Democrats have increased their vote total in every election since 1980, and incumbants usually improve their performance unless there is a third party siphoning away votes (Anderson in 1980, Perot in 1992). Even in a depressed year, Obama an probably get about 72 million votes.

So Romney has to get all 59 million people who voted for McCain last time, and then he has to find another 14 million or so to get ahead of Obama.

And he has to be able to do that when 10% of Republicans and 18% of Independents WILL NOT VOTE FOR A MORMON.

Good luck with that, really.

So you all sold out to the Mormon Cult, and will have nothing to show for it. It's not like I didn't warn you that you were making a bad deal.

I'd say at least half of the whites that voted for him won't this time. Many of the youth vote won't even show up to vote.

The trends reversed in 2010, now those claiming to be Republican out number those claiming to be Democrat.

The key is turnout. If Obama can't jazz his base and get his supporters to show up he won't win. Romney will have little problem energizing his base. Obama does that for him. Obama feels his only chance it to scare enough of his base to give him another 4 years to continue his failed policies. I think that's a tall order. He has a lot of lying to do to accomplish that....but he's willing to give it a go.

 

[8537]

And here's the kicker:

Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%), Not sure/Refused(3%)

AND

3.5 is the margin of error.

What do you believe they should use as a mix for party affiliation?

 

[8537]

And here's the kicker:

Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%), Not sure/Refused(3%)

AND

3.5 is the margin of error.

So Obama's lead could easily be as high, or higher, than the FOX poll.

It means there was an oversampling of Democrats by 5 points.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

 

[Sarah G]

Likely voters are voters that actually are likely to vote, not lean one way or another.

That is the point of this after all. You want to know how people that plan on voting would vote.

Try spinning that.

Fact is, 69 MILLION people voted for Obama last time. Romney hasn't won them over.

Historically, the Democrats have increased their vote total in every election since 1980, and incumbants usually improve their performance unless there is a third party siphoning away votes (Anderson in 1980, Perot in 1992). Even in a depressed year, Obama an probably get about 72 million votes.

So Romney has to get all 59 million people who voted for McCain last time, and then he has to find another 14 million or so to get ahead of Obama.

And he has to be able to do that when 10% of Republicans and 18% of Independents WILL NOT VOTE FOR A MORMON.

Good luck with that, really.

So you all sold out to the Mormon Cult, and will have nothing to show for it. It's not like I didn't warn you that you were making a bad deal.

I'd say at least half of the whites that voted for him won't this time. Many of the youth vote won't even show up to vote.

The trends reversed in 2010, now those claiming to be Republican out number those claiming to be Democrat.

The key is turnout. If Obama can't jazz his base and get his supporters to show up he won't win. Romney will have little problem energizing his base. Obama does that for him. Obama feels his only chance it to scare enough of his base to give him another 4 years to continue his failed policies. I think that's a tall order. He has a lot of lying to do to accomplish that....but he's willing to give it a go.

You'd say? Well, you'd be wrong once again. You should just give up on Romney and hope that your majority in the House doesn't suffer too much.

Mid term elections are it's own entity, you put some loser like Romney up trying to buy an election, people tend to get pissed. He's going to lose even bigger than McCain did.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Also check out the battleground states in the upper right hand corner.



National Polls

47.7 - Obama

43.7 - Romnoid

Obama +4.0



Electoral College

237 - Obama

191 - Romnoid





Intrade Odds

57.2 - Obama

41.5 - Romnoid

 

[mudwhistle]

Fact is, 69 MILLION people voted for Obama last time. Romney hasn't won them over.

Historically, the Democrats have increased their vote total in every election since 1980, and incumbants usually improve their performance unless there is a third party siphoning away votes (Anderson in 1980, Perot in 1992). Even in a depressed year, Obama an probably get about 72 million votes.

So Romney has to get all 59 million people who voted for McCain last time, and then he has to find another 14 million or so to get ahead of Obama.

And he has to be able to do that when 10% of Republicans and 18% of Independents WILL NOT VOTE FOR A MORMON.

Good luck with that, really.

So you all sold out to the Mormon Cult, and will have nothing to show for it. It's not like I didn't warn you that you were making a bad deal.

I'd say at least half of the whites that voted for him won't this time. Many of the youth vote won't even show up to vote.

The trends reversed in 2010, now those claiming to be Republican out number those claiming to be Democrat.

The key is turnout. If Obama can't jazz his base and get his supporters to show up he won't win. Romney will have little problem energizing his base. Obama does that for him. Obama feels his only chance it to scare enough of his base to give him another 4 years to continue his failed policies. I think that's a tall order. He has a lot of lying to do to accomplish that....but he's willing to give it a go.

You'd say? Well, you'd be wrong once again. You should just give up on Romney and hope that your majority in the House doesn't suffer too much.

Mid term elections are it's own entity, you put some loser like Romney up trying to buy an election, people tend to get pissed. He's going to lose even bigger than McCain did.






National Polls

47.7 - Obama

43.7 - Romnoid

Obama +4.0



Electoral College

237 - Obama

191 - Romnoid





Intrade Odds

57.2 - Obama

41.5 - Romnoid

Please, don't talk about buying elections to me.

Obama is buying the election with taxpayer dollars he doesn't have.

What a wonderful guy.

 

[beretta304]

Fact is, 69 MILLION people voted for Obama last time. Romney hasn't won them over.

Historically, the Democrats have increased their vote total in every election since 1980, and incumbants usually improve their performance unless there is a third party siphoning away votes (Anderson in 1980, Perot in 1992). Even in a depressed year, Obama an probably get about 72 million votes.

So Romney has to get all 59 million people who voted for McCain last time, and then he has to find another 14 million or so to get ahead of Obama.

And he has to be able to do that when 10% of Republicans and 18% of Independents WILL NOT VOTE FOR A MORMON.

Good luck with that, really.

So you all sold out to the Mormon Cult, and will have nothing to show for it. It's not like I didn't warn you that you were making a bad deal.

I'd say at least half of the whites that voted for him won't this time. Many of the youth vote won't even show up to vote.

The trends reversed in 2010, now those claiming to be Republican out number those claiming to be Democrat.

The key is turnout. If Obama can't jazz his base and get his supporters to show up he won't win. Romney will have little problem energizing his base. Obama does that for him. Obama feels his only chance it to scare enough of his base to give him another 4 years to continue his failed policies. I think that's a tall order. He has a lot of lying to do to accomplish that....but he's willing to give it a go.

You'd say? Well, you'd be wrong once again. You should just give up on Romney and hope that your majority in the House doesn't suffer too much.

Mid term elections are it's own entity, you put some loser like Romney up trying to buy an election, people tend to get pissed. He's going to lose even bigger than McCain did.


RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Also check out the battleground states in the upper right hand corner.



National Polls

47.7 - Obama

43.7 - Romnoid

Obama +4.0



Electoral College

237 - Obama

191 - Romnoid





Intrade Odds

57.2 - Obama

41.5 - Romnoid

Keep dreaming. The experiment is over and it was a failure.

 

[Jroc]

Obama can't break 50% he's a loser

 

[JoeB131]

I'd say at least half of the whites that voted for him won't this time. Many of the youth vote won't even show up to vote.

The trends reversed in 2010, now those claiming to be Republican out number those claiming to be Democrat.

The key is turnout. If Obama can't jazz his base and get his supporters to show up he won't win. Romney will have little problem energizing his base. Obama does that for him. Obama feels his only chance it to scare enough of his base to give him another 4 years to continue his failed policies. I think that's a tall order. He has a lot of lying to do to accomplish that....but he's willing to give it a go.

First, the notion that "Well, his voters will be disappointed!" Has there ever been an incumbant who didn't go into a re-election campaign with people who felt that he didn't deliver everything they wanted? Yet except for cases where a third party siphons off votes, they always improve their vote totals.

This is the key thing. Getting someone who might be disappointed with Obama. No problem. I'm sure a lot of people who did are. Getting one to say, "Wow, I made a huge mistake, I'd better vote for the guy who came in second to the guy I didn't vote for last time." That's a tall order. A third party often gives these people an out, but voting the oppossite way doesn't.

Meanwhile, Romney doesn't have a lock on McCain's voters. Quite the reverse, some of us voted for McCain in the primaries in 2008 because he wasn't Romney.

If Romney wasn't having a problem energizing the base, he wouldn't have taken "Push Granny off the Cliff" Ryan. He had to throw his base a bone because they generally aren't happy about him.

If hate alone got you over the finish line, you wouldn't have a problem. Hate for Reagan didn't help Mondale, hate for Clinton didn't help Dole, Hate for Bush-43 didn't help Kerry.

I voted for McCain in 2008, but I won't vote for Romney. I just dislike Mormons that much.

You combine the anti-Mormon thing, the don't really trust Romney thing, and the people in the middle who will be just damned scared by the notion of what Ryan is going to do to Granny, and frankly, Romney's got too tall a cliff to climb.

A final note, when you say "Enthusiasm". By that reckoning, there should have been a lot more participation in the GOP Primary process this year. Especially since the Democrats didn't even have a contest, they could have at least sniffed around.

but not really. While 21 million people participated in GOP Primaries in 2008, only 19 million participated in them in 2012.

 

[JoeB131]

Obama can't break 50% he's a loser

Um, I would suggest you look at polls from 2008. Obama didn't break the 50% wall in the RCP average until October.

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Right now should be the Weird Mormon Robot's best moment. Going into his convention, he ought to be leading right now. Even Walter Mondale had a 2% lead going into the convention in 1984.

But... not so much.

 

[mudwhistle]

I'd say at least half of the whites that voted for him won't this time. Many of the youth vote won't even show up to vote.

The trends reversed in 2010, now those claiming to be Republican out number those claiming to be Democrat.

The key is turnout. If Obama can't jazz his base and get his supporters to show up he won't win. Romney will have little problem energizing his base. Obama does that for him. Obama feels his only chance it to scare enough of his base to give him another 4 years to continue his failed policies. I think that's a tall order. He has a lot of lying to do to accomplish that....but he's willing to give it a go.

First, the notion that "Well, his voters will be disappointed!" Has there ever been an incumbant who didn't go into a re-election campaign with people who felt that he didn't deliver everything they wanted? Yet except for cases where a third party siphons off votes, they always improve their vote totals.

This is the key thing. Getting someone who might be disappointed with Obama. No problem. I'm sure a lot of people who did are. Getting one to say, "Wow, I made a huge mistake, I'd better vote for the guy who came in second to the guy I didn't vote for last time." That's a tall order. A third party often gives these people an out, but voting the oppossite way doesn't.

Meanwhile, Romney doesn't have a lock on McCain's voters. Quite the reverse, some of us voted for McCain in the primaries in 2008 because he wasn't Romney.

If Romney wasn't having a problem energizing the base, he wouldn't have taken "Push Granny off the Cliff" Ryan. He had to throw his base a bone because they generally aren't happy about him.

If hate alone got you over the finish line, you wouldn't have a problem. Hate for Reagan didn't help Mondale, hate for Clinton didn't help Dole, Hate for Bush-43 didn't help Kerry.

I voted for McCain in 2008, but I won't vote for Romney. I just dislike Mormons that much.

You combine the anti-Mormon thing, the don't really trust Romney thing, and the people in the middle who will be just damned scared by the notion of what Ryan is going to do to Granny, and frankly, Romney's got too tall a cliff to climb.

A final note, when you say "Enthusiasm". By that reckoning, there should have been a lot more participation in the GOP Primary process this year. Especially since the Democrats didn't even have a contest, they could have at least sniffed around.

but not really. While 21 million people participated in GOP Primaries in 2008, only 19 million participated in them in 2012.

Well, the polls aren't based on hatred for Mormons.

I figure they will have to include Catholics now.

I think last time there was less certainty, especially since the contest was decided before June this time.

Obama is worried about the massive turnouts the GOP is getting. There is a great deal of anger out there for Obama. It will result in massive voter turnout against him.

 

[Too Tall]

I wonder if four more years is enough for the Bush hangover to finally end...

Isn't Obama using the same economic policies that Bush used in his final 6 months in office? So isn't it the Bush-Obama hangover?

Not even close. He's winding down the wars and isn't proposing major spending based on debt, like Medicare D.

Yes he is! This is what Obama said about Part D at a June town hall meeting:

“Beginning next year, if you fall into the coverage gap, you’ll get a 50-percent discount on the brand-name medicine that you need,” Obama touted, “And by 2020 — it’s being phased in, but by 2020, The doughnut hole will be gone. It will be gone.”

Obama Back on Health Care: ‘The Doughnut Hole Will be Gone’ - ABC News

 

[JoeB131]

Well, the polls aren't based on hatred for Mormons.

I figure they will have to include Catholics now.

I think last time there was less certainty, especially since the contest was decided before June this time.

Obama is worried about the massive turnouts the GOP is getting. There is a great deal of anger out there for Obama. It will result in massive voter turnout against him.

Catholics don't vote in a block. That's the difference between a mainstream religion and a cult.

Again, hate never got anyone over the finish line.

People hated Bush a lot more than they hate Obama. Bush still won despite a really unpopular war and an unemployment rate that was higher than when he took office.

Again, the people who are REALLY ANGRY about Obama were the ones who didn't vote for him in 2008, either. They didn't increase their number of votes.

 

[mudwhistle]

Well, the polls aren't based on hatred for Mormons.

I figure they will have to include Catholics now.

I think last time there was less certainty, especially since the contest was decided before June this time.

Obama is worried about the massive turnouts the GOP is getting. There is a great deal of anger out there for Obama. It will result in massive voter turnout against him.

Catholics don't vote in a block. That's the difference between a mainstream religion and a cult.

Again, hate never got anyone over the finish line.

People hated Bush a lot more than they hate Obama. Bush still won despite a really unpopular war and an unemployment rate that was higher than when he took office.

Again, the people who are REALLY ANGRY about Obama were the ones who didn't vote for him in 2008, either. They didn't increase their number of votes.

You have a problem with reading comprehension. I didn't say Mormons or Catholics vote in blocks. I was speaking of bigotry towards Mormons and Catholics.

You're right. Folks hated Bush more than they hate Obama. Mainly because the type of people that hated Bush hate pretty much everything this country stands for. Also, they had a lot of help from the media in developing that hatred. Right now people fear what Obama will do more than anything. If they got to know him better and knew what he intends to do they would hate him.

A lot of people that voted for Obama are extremely disappointed in him. That's enough for them not to vote for him even if they dislike Romney. It worked against McCain. Many on the right didn't show up to vote. I don't think that will be as much of a problem this time.