Nuclear Weapons - What it takes to defend against them.

DarthTrader

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Mar 29, 2022
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Ok, I dumped about 1,000 hours of study worth of "facts" in the ABM thread, and I don't want to rehash them here because I don't have a conversational context to order them in any meaningful way. I will, however, try to bullet point some things I long time thought about as requisites for actually 'Winning" a nuclear war.

  1. The Soviet Union and now Russia is more capable of winning a nuclear war.
    1. This concept is important, Russia has purposefully placed their nuclear forces in such a way that forces the US to respond, thereby minimizing the types of damages to population centers one might expect.
    2. Russia has massive, massive, deep underground bunkers with years worth of up-to-date supplies for survival, fully operable power supplies etc.
    3. It's argued some 10million people can be funneled into the Moscow subway system and access these civilian defense bunkers.
  2. The question I have is why?
    1. Cobalt-60 is the biggest problem but not the only problem. It is 550 million times more toxic than cyanide.
    2. How do we clean the surface to reclaim it?
      1. I'm pretty sure there is a way but I've never developed a strong concept of the engineering scale of the problem.
    3. Command-and-control has to survive.
      1. Nuclear deterrence has to survive.
      2. Conventional military force has to survive.
  3. ABMs won't work. I detail this at length in the ABM thread.

Those things being said helps anchor my thoughts. What I came up with when trying to interpret the Russian ballistic missile defense systems is what I call:

Enclave Systems.

I had this thought after my initial bachelors in strategic studies (nuclear weapons emphasis) and when actually operating as a trained HAZWOPER, that the concept of "hot, warm, cold" zones is backwards for nuclear war. In the traditional NBC hot-zone system, the hot-zone is ground zero, the hottest contaminated zone. But in Nuclear War the most likely outcome is EVERYWHERE will become contaminated to some extent.

So the Enclave System is instead designed to turn that round. The cold zone is at the center and the hot zone is everywhere outside.

The idea is, similar to the Russian system though that is probably by accident knowing them, in that you have very concentrated centers of highly defended hardened facilities that contain everything you need. Power-generation, fuel, food, seed, freshwater, filtration, commodities. Everything.

These huge, concentrated, impossible to destroy sites are your enclaves that form the nucleus of your "cold zone". They could be vast vaults 500+ feet underground or built into bedrock for instance. From here the survivors would have to reclaim the surface. In hazmat operations you create a "corridor" to the hot zone. In the enclave system you create a corridor out of the hot zones.

And this is needed to do a few things. Mainly recontrol of the surface is to get control of strategic assets needed to rebuild your nuclear deterrent.

In war - the end goal must always be to destroy your enemy's ability to make war.

This means uranium mines, access to power, centrifuges, the industry of long-range missile warfare.

Standing armies still matter, whether as special operations to prevent the enemy from doing the same, but more realistically such as new society would become a huge military dictatorship to keep control of the population.

I'll end my thoughts here for now. There's a lot to unpack. But basically - I do think there is a way to "win" a nuclear war. But it's not the ways anyone's traditionally thought of it. It starts with the unanswered questions of what's next after each logical step, to reclaiming the surface and liberating it from irradiated material.
 
The best defense against a nuke is to hide inside a refrigerator

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In something as simple as an invasion, Russia proved to be inept when it came to logistics. Their troops ended up begging for food and water.

In the event of a Nuclear Attack, within a week, Russians would resort to Cannibalism and drinking their own urine.
 

Nuclear Weapons - What it takes to defend against them?​


It would take a great military mind and strategist.....

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Oh...we're screwed....
 
You don't know what you're talking about and you're free to fuck off. Even your assessment of Ukraine is garbage.
Why are you so angry? You make the stupid claim that ABMs won't work when simple lookup will show they've been successfully many times.

And I've seen estimates by experts before that fully 30% of Russian ICBMs would not successfully hit their targets if launched.
 
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Why are you so angry? You make the stupid claim that ABMs won't work when simple lookup will show they've been successfully many times.

And I've seen estimates by experts before that fully 30% of Russian ICBMs would not successfully hit their targets if launched.
You don't know the definition of ABM then. It's specific to ICBMs, there's no evidence that any ABM can successfully intercept an ICBM in any way.

You've seen nonsense estimates about Russian ICBMs. Russia's ICBMs are newer than the US's and are being replaced with modern designs.

Unless you think 30% of Russia's orbital launches fail, lololololol.
 
You don't know the definition of ABM then. It's specific to ICBMs, there's no evidence that any ABM can successfully intercept an ICBM in any way.

You've seen nonsense estimates about Russian ICBMs. Russia's ICBMs are newer than the US's and are being replaced with modern designs.

Unless you think 30% of Russia's orbital launches fail, lololololol.

Whenever I talk about ABMs I'm referring to their use against ICBMs. Again, a simple online lookup will tell you about the successful tests of American ABMs against ICBM analogues. Want a link. ?

Satisfied?


No they don't work all the time or even most of the time. But then again most missiles don't work most of the time which is why you target each ICBM warhead with several ABMs.
 
Whenever I talk about ABMs I'm referring to their use against ICBMs. Again, a simple online lookup will tell you about the successful tests of American ABMs against ICBM analogues. Want a link. ?

Satisfied?


No they don't work all the time or even most of the time. But then again most missiles don't work most of the time which is why you target each ICBM warhead with several ABMs.
There's been no successful test against an ICBM. I'm not really interested in breaking down all the dumbshit that the US has done to claim otherwise, but basically it's putting a gun to the bullseye, shooting it, and saying you can now hit a moving target 1,000 at yards that skips around like ball-lightning or a pinball.

I can give a rats ass about those tests.

Anyone who is honest with themselves about the key-items that I mentioned in the three problem areas (the launch is broken into two problem areas), would likewise start to ignore the supposed "successful" tests conducted so far.

I'd say those tests are more akin to just the launch phase. And I do contend that we can destroy an ICBM on launch pretty easy. It's just getting there that's a problem.
 
There's been no successful test against an ICBM. I'm not really interested in breaking down all the dumbshit that the US has done to claim otherwise, but basically it's putting a gun to the bullseye, shooting it, and saying you can now hit a moving target 1,000 at yards that skips around like ball-lightning or a pinball.

I can give a rats ass about those tests.

Anyone who is honest with themselves about the key-items that I mentioned in the three problem areas (the launch is broken into two problem areas), would likewise start to ignore the supposed "successful" tests conducted so far.

I'd say those tests are more akin to just the launch phase. And I do contend that we can destroy an ICBM on launch pretty easy. It's just getting there that's a problem.

Every test that I've seen referred to has been about destroying ICBMs after they reenter the atmosphere and start descending.

But what you say apparently no longer matters as you won't accept the results of any tests for some reason.
 
Every test that I've seen referred to has been about destroying ICBMs after they reenter the atmosphere and start descending.

But what you say apparently no longer matters as you won't accept the results of any tests for some reason.
I'll investigate that claim maybe on my lunch.

It's fair to you that if you can say that then I should actually revisit any changes made in say last 3 years when I stopped paying attention to this stuff for real....I will say I'm highly doubtful any such meaningful re-entry test has been conducted.

I just need to revisit the parameters of the test.

Keep in mind you can pull a North Korea and get high altitude on high parabolics, such tests prove distance capabilities but never achieve the speeds that actual ICBMs will achieve. Maybe 3,000 to 5,000mph or so.

Think "Blue Origin", it doesn't go much faster than 2,000mph if I recall. I was paying attention to the telemetry when they did the Will Shatner launch. It goes into space, it comes back but at a pretty low speed. I'm assuming....assuming...that's going to be the fatal flaw in the parameters of the test.

"We shot something down from space so we can say we can destroy anything reentering".

Another big reason that's a problem now that I think of it, is if they didn't need a heat shield then they likely had a HUGE radar cross section for a very long time.

ICBM warheads will have very very small radar cross sections for up until the last eh 10 seconds or so.

I'm not saying the material of the B-20 and soon the B-21 are the same composites as was on the space shuttle (beryllium oxides).....but if you do a little personal dot-connecting I'm telling you with a fact that the composites on stealth aircraft and on re-entry vehicles are very similar. Hint - US has to pubilicize all contractors so they often create shell-jobs so that we can tout that as the reason for the contract.

On stealth aircraft you'll find the same contractor over and over again.

Suspiciously - it's the same contractor that built the heat shields for Apollo and Space Shuttle. Just ... giving you an example of how a Russian analyst might investigate US top secrets.

I'll also tell you - because we can reveal Russian secrets - that Russian heat shields were made from a different technology AT FIRST. Which is why they were behind on the stealth tech problem.

Given the size of our early warning radar, I'm willing to bet the US believes that the Russians have fixed that for their warhead reentry cones. The Russians are notoriously cheap when it doesn't matter (hence they sent the cheap stuff first into Ukraine).

They are so cheap that a T-34 had a 20 hour Transmission lifespan. Because they determined the average lifespan of a tank was 17 hours. So why make the transmission last much longer than that? That created problems with their momentum when they had it.

Russia today is not cheap where it does matter.
 
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I'll investigate that claim maybe on my lunch.

It's fair to you that if you can say that then I should actually revisit any changes made in say last 3 years when I stopped paying attention to this stuff for real....I will say I'm highly doubtful any such meaningful re-entry test has been conducted.

I just need to revisit the parameters of the test.

Keep in mind you can pull a North Korea and get high altitude on high parabolics, such tests prove distance capabilities but never achieve the speeds that actual ICBMs will achieve. Maybe 3,000 to 5,000mph or so.

Think "Blue Origin", it doesn't go much faster than 2,000mph if I recall. I was paying attention to the telemetry when they did the Will Shatner launch. It goes into space, it comes back but at a pretty low speed. I'm assuming....assuming...that's going to be the fatal flaw in the parameters of the test.

"We shot something down from space so we can say we can destroy anything reentering".

Another big reason that's a problem now that I think of it, is if they didn't need a heat shield then they likely had a HUGE radar cross section for a very long time.

ICBM warheads will have very very small radar cross sections for up until the last eh 10 seconds or so.

I'm not saying the material of the B-20 and soon the B-21 are the same composites as was on the space shuttle (beryllium oxides).....but if you do a little personal dot-connecting I'm telling you with a fact that the composites on stealth aircraft and on re-entry vehicles are very similar. Hint - US has to pubilicize all contractors so they often create shell-jobs so that we can tout that as the reason for the contract.

On stealth aircraft you'll find the same contractor over and over again.

Suspiciously - it's the same contractor that built the heat shields for Apollo and Space Shuttle. Just ... giving you an example of how a Russian analyst might investigate US top secrets.

I'll also tell you - because we can reveal Russian secrets - that Russian heat shields were made from a different technology AT FIRST. Which is why they were behind on the stealth tech problem.

Given the size of our early warning radar, I'm willing to bet the US believes that the Russians have fixed that for their warhead reentry cones.

In regards to the stealth bombers you refer to I would like to point out that high speed is a major enemy of stealth because supersonic shock waves are like a red flag to a bull when it comes to radar returns.
 
I believe the world will see a nuclear war. I also believe it's insane to imagine that it could be survived and any nation continue as a nation in the aftermath. The very fact that we have a growing number of imbeciles who are toying with the idea that these weapons can be successfully employed is evidence that a nuclear war WILL happen at some point. Nuclear winter is a real thing and it will kill billions from starvation that leads to disease. As for Russia prevailing in such a conflict, it's idiocy to imagine that just because a few million souls can avoid fallout or blast effects, they will "survive" the aftermath.

I assume Darth somehow imagines that some part of the US or NATO triad will not be effective in deracinating the Rodina as fully as she will destroy Europe and the US. He's a fool and the best punishment for that is for him to survive to try to live in the wasteland his ideas will create.
 
The Soviet Union and now Russia is more capable of winning a nuclear war.

This thread is even more full of mistakes than usual, but I will hit on just some of them.

First of all, nobody "wins" a nuclear war. That is like trying to claim that there is a winner of a duel where both people are armed with flamethrowers.

And in this case, who are they going to nuke? The US? Well, that already pretty much guarantees that not only the US but also the UK will hit them (as it would be impossible to not impact Canada in such an exchange).

You don't know the definition of ABM then. It's specific to ICBMs

Actually, no they are not. There are a great many ABM systems in service to this day.

Hell, look at the name itself, that should be your first clue. "Anti-Ballistic Missile". It is not called "Anti Intercontinental Ballistic Missile", after all. They work against a large range of them, and have been used successfully in combat against TBM-MRBM class weapons over 3 decades ago.

In other words, once again you are creating your own definition that nobody else uses.

Another big reason that's a problem now that I think of it, is if they didn't need a heat shield then they likely had a HUGE radar cross section for a very long time.

ICBM warheads will have very very small radar cross sections for up until the last eh 10 seconds or so.

Not even sure what this even means, to be honest.

To begin with, the main US plans involve mid-course intercept. At that point the warhead(s) are still inside of the missile itself, they have no separated yet in the event of MIRV. So that is kind of like talking about the RCS of a person, inside of a Boeing 747.

On stealth aircraft you'll find the same contractor over and over again.

Suspiciously - it's the same contractor that built the heat shields for Apollo and Space Shuttle.

Oh really?

F-117 - Lockheed
B-2 - Northrop
F-22 - Lockheed and Boeing
F-35 - Lockheed

I actually see three of them there, not one. And nobody questions that Lockheed has the most experience in this area, as they were literally doing it before "stealth" was even a thing yet. What became the F-117 was originally a request for a low RADAR cross-section aircraft. Even the Air Force was amazed that their proposal not only met that, it so far exceeded them to a degree that even they did not believe it. And for over 30 years every other US aircraft manufacturer was trying as hard as they could just to catch up to them.

However, Northrop was able to do so for the B-2, because it was amazingly similar to two aircraft they had designed and built back in the 1940s (YB-35, YB-39). Even then they knew flying wings had an amazingly low RADAR cross-section, but the avionics of the day were not capable of operating them safely. But by the 1980s, computers made that possible, and newer composite materials made them almost invisible. But by and large, the basic design was already almost 40 years old. And Northrop was considered the best there was at making flying wings, as old Jack Northrop himself had long been a champion of them.

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But really, you think that AVCO makes stealth aircraft? I am actually not aware of them making any aircraft, ever. Although they did own many airlines, primarily involved in mail and freight service. Because you see, they are the ones that made the heat shields for the Apollo program.

But that was for Apollo. For the Space Shuttle, they were actually made by Rockwell. Which once again, I have never heard of them making aircraft, but since they belong to Boeing now, I guess in the most bass-ackwards way they can be considered as doing so.

Now, if you were saying the new Orion capsule, that is once again AVCO (now Textron). The CM for that is indeed being made by Lockheed, but they are still using AVCO (sorry, Textron) to make the heat shield. It is still the best ablative heat shield in the world as far as most are concerned. It is just being made in the Lockheed facility that the capsule is being built in.

But once again, you show that you simply make things up and spit them out. Not even thinking that some may question you on your claims.
 
It has stealth like capabilities having a low RCS for the time and could operate at very low level. But it was never a "stealth aircraft".

true but low level and high speed has its own advantages.
 

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