DarthTrader
Diamond Member
- Mar 29, 2022
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- #1
I don't know what Russia's goals were with Kiev. So I posit two possibilities:
This here is a classic pocket. I suspect - if Russia's attack on Kiev was intentional - it is to force and encourage a mistake by the Ukrainian military to become aggressive, angry, and clouded in judgement. An army that loses its backbone of veterans and becomes overweighted with angry militias that just saw their wives raped and their kids murdered are more likely to "enter the pocket" to "get revenge".
This operational tempo would be felt at the commander level and weakness in the pocket would be confused as their strength and they'd want to "take back the rest of their country".
THIS IS THE ONLY MILITARILY STABLE POSITION FOR UKRAINE.
Entering the pocket is like Pickett's Charge, it's like Rome at Cannae, it's like the Germans pretty much the entirety of the Eastern Front WW2. First the Germans were excellent at getting the Russians to enter the pockets across their entire front, then the Russians turned that on the Germans and became excellent at doing it to them.
Stable fronts are relatively flat for a reason.
The problem for Ukraine is there is NO POSSIBLE WAY to take back the pocket meaningfully.
As you can see in the north east, the only way to turn the Russian position in the south east is if they did something unthinkable in the north east, invade Belarus or Russia. Both of which would be an escalation against a nuclear power that's probably willing to use nukes.
They also unlikely have the manpower to push their supply lines in that direction.
And so I think the probability of Ukraine doped on "delusions of grandeur" becaus they defeated Putin's worst conscripts using old Soviet equipment, will invade the pocket, try to push for Mariupol and Donetsk and Luhansk and end up putting a lot of their best military into the pocket at which time Putin only has to.
STRIKE THE ANVIL
What happens if the Ukrainian army is defeated in the pocket is anyone's guess.
- Intentional distraction that causes massive disarray in the south at little cost to Russia.
- Unintentional over-reach that resulted in a blunder, but losses-were-cut and Russia is getting its act together.
This here is a classic pocket. I suspect - if Russia's attack on Kiev was intentional - it is to force and encourage a mistake by the Ukrainian military to become aggressive, angry, and clouded in judgement. An army that loses its backbone of veterans and becomes overweighted with angry militias that just saw their wives raped and their kids murdered are more likely to "enter the pocket" to "get revenge".
This operational tempo would be felt at the commander level and weakness in the pocket would be confused as their strength and they'd want to "take back the rest of their country".
THIS IS THE ONLY MILITARILY STABLE POSITION FOR UKRAINE.
Entering the pocket is like Pickett's Charge, it's like Rome at Cannae, it's like the Germans pretty much the entirety of the Eastern Front WW2. First the Germans were excellent at getting the Russians to enter the pockets across their entire front, then the Russians turned that on the Germans and became excellent at doing it to them.
Stable fronts are relatively flat for a reason.
The problem for Ukraine is there is NO POSSIBLE WAY to take back the pocket meaningfully.
As you can see in the north east, the only way to turn the Russian position in the south east is if they did something unthinkable in the north east, invade Belarus or Russia. Both of which would be an escalation against a nuclear power that's probably willing to use nukes.
They also unlikely have the manpower to push their supply lines in that direction.
And so I think the probability of Ukraine doped on "delusions of grandeur" becaus they defeated Putin's worst conscripts using old Soviet equipment, will invade the pocket, try to push for Mariupol and Donetsk and Luhansk and end up putting a lot of their best military into the pocket at which time Putin only has to.
STRIKE THE ANVIL
What happens if the Ukrainian army is defeated in the pocket is anyone's guess.
