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Posted 8/1/2004
Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' views of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the race against President Bush, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds.
In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Kerry trailed Bush 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.
The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.
The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.
USA TODAY extended its survey to Sunday to get a fuller picture of what's happening.
A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave the Democrats a 49%-42% lead. Over three weeks, that reflected a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry, the smallest ever in the Newsweek poll...
Kathianne said:At least from Gallup's Friday and Saturday results:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm
gop_jeff said:Classic. USA Today shows Kerry losing one point, and the Leftist Newsweek poll shows only a 4 point gain. Talk about a failure of a convention!!!
musicman said:The hatefully partisan 911 Commision, Richard Clarke, Hollywood traitors, Bill's book, MM's "documentary", Sandy Berger's wardrobe malfunction, every dirty trick and shit-eating lie they could pull ouf of their handbook, and this is all the "bounce" the Democrats could muster?
Only America's enemies around the world can save them now.
Kathianne said:And even Europe is lukewarm: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0730/p01s03-woeu.html
musicman said:They're sure not going to back a loser - Europe pays meticulous attention to it's own interests.
Speaking of which, I'm not sure I care for the tone taken by Middle East expert Dr. Rosemary Hollis. She wonders if the U.S. will be seen as a fair and just player - "again"?! Just what does she imply we've been up until now?
Kathianne said:I don't believe she things we are. My guess is Jose is her advisor!
Kathianne said:Sorry, I read too much. Check in Israeli forum, you'll get the idea real quick!
The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and Christopher Conroy
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush teams attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bushs standing among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32% approve of Bushs job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.
The Bush campaigns efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gores total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bushs courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.
The Senators lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerrys choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bushs support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bushs job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters 18-29 year olds a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.
There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerrys lead in the electorate; first is President Bushs eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerrys strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerrys large leads amongst Hispanics who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 and young voters who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didnt vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Naders voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.
John Zogby is President of Zogby International. Christopher Conroy is Political Research Associate at Zogby International.
Especially in light of the fact that no other polls are replicating his results. (What was that we learned about the scientific method)?Kathianne said:Yeah his results from 2000 must give you warm, fuzzy feelings every night, from now to November.
TheOne said:
~Sandy, what is a social life? For that matter, what is sleep?~The Zogby Boyz
On NPR yesterday Allison Keyes spoke with pollster John Zogby whose work has shown that Arabs feel the 9/11 commission missed some important things.
The commission hasn't taken into account, for example, that America should try to promote a more positive image abroad, and that it shouldn't treat Arabs as only capable of responding to the barrel of a gun. He certainly sounded convinced and eager to effect change in the minds of Americans who -- as the left is always trying to remind us -- need to understand why the world reacts to us they was they do. Remember -- it's your fault.
But let's slow down for a second.
First let's ask if either of those assertions is valid, and (even assuming they were) whether they have anything to do with the 9/11 commission.
And the answer is no ... and no. And I'm already bored with that. I almost wrote an extensive essay on the leftist weltanschauung, but you've heard it before, and if you know anything about logical fallacies you can see well enough for yourself why these diversionary arguments don't wash.
There was something else about this. Where had I heard that name before? Zogby ... Zogby ...
As many of you must already have known, famed pollster John Zogby is the brother of Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute. Has anyone called into question the objectiveness of John Zogby's polling when he and his brother would appear to have political and cultural biases?
Here's Jim Zogby equating voting with terrorism:
"You can make yourself felt here by voting, by organizing, by imposing yourself and showing that you can help 'em or hurt 'em," says Jim Zogby. "Tragically, the only way the Arab world can help or hurt policies is by lowering their oil prices or having a boycott, or by, in some mistaken or perverse way, thinking that by striking out in terror you make an impact.
"The election next year will determine who is going to shape the lives of billions of people all over the world," he continues. "We have an opportunity to weigh in on that."
Kathianne said:Gee I ran across this tonight: http://www.classicalvalues.com/archives/001270.html
and thought of your post!
Anyhow, thought it interesting and some of you might also. There are many links and this is only an EXCERPT:
tpahl said:I am not sure that it is a good idea to say that one has a bias because of his brothers position. I would think in light of accusations made about the Bush brothers in 2000, a Bush supporter would not want to rekindle peoples insticts to make such judgements.
Travis
