New Poll, Republicans will trounce Democrats in Nov 2010 elections in congress.

[Vast LWC]

Well then, what do you have to say about this current Gallop poll???? Ooooops.

Republicans Edge Ahead of Democrats in 2010 Vote

I would say that public opinion changes with every coming day, and that I'm quite sure the numbers will return to the left side of the fence by November.

I would also say that, as I stated, the Gallup Poll is different from the Rasmussen poll well beyond the margin of error.

 

[Meister]

You all do know that Rasmussen correctly called the election for Obama and was closer than any other. So go ahead and spin it all you want to, but the proof will be in the pudding come this November. And it doesn't look good for the libs and if they shove this health care plan down the throats of Americans which the majority does not want , it will turn out to be a disastor for the party for many years to come.

This statement has been proven false on these boards so many times that I can't understand how you can even post this without hanging your head in shame.

You should really stop lying Maple.

Rasmussen's prediction for Election '08: 6%
Actual Result: 7.3%

There were in fact EIGHT major polling agencies that were significantly closer to the actual tally than Rasmussen, including CNN.

RealClearPolitics' average was the closest of all with 7.6%.

Doesn't RCP use the average of other polls?

Final Results -- -- -- 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- -- 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.6
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5 52 47 Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5 50 48 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 11/01 - 11/03 3000 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
FOX News 11/01 - 11/02 971 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/02 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6

It looks like Rasmussen was one of the closest in actual percentages. I do believe that's what the pollsters lay their fame to.

 

[Sinatra]

That's why we are seeing all of the no-wanna-runs-again now. They are realizing that Americans are incensed over the outrageous national debt, the unemployment rate, the healthcare bills that 56% of Americans oppose, the bribery going on in the senate, ( The corn-husker kick back). The numerous broken promises of Obama, and his weak on terror stance. It's not looking good for the party in charge, this country will turn red from sea to shining sea in November 2010.

RasmussenReports Juice External Link

All of the on-ground movement indicates that 2010 will in fact be a strong momentum shift for the Republicans.

Heading to the east coast in the spring for a big meet and greet, and the chatter has been very positive that the Republican momentum is proving to be significant. Hopefully we can keep that going right up to November 2010...

 

[Vast LWC]

fivethirtyeight.com was the closest individual site.

I've never seen their results, but I have no reason to doubt you. Do you have a link?

 

[Maple]

Well then, what do you have to say about this current Gallop poll???? Ooooops.

Republicans Edge Ahead of Democrats in 2010 Vote

I would say that public opinion changes with every coming day, and that I'm quite sure the numbers will return to the left side of the fence by November.

I would also say that, as I stated, the Gallup Poll is different from the Rasmussen poll well beyond the margin of error.

Keep on dreaming and drinking that coolaid. Here's another, notice the disapproval ratings of congress. Do you think those people are going to turn out to support the democratic majority that controls congress? You need to think again.

RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

Read it all, the generic congressional vote and pay special attention to the direction of the country poll. Not lookin good for your party.

 

[Vast LWC]

Doesn't RCP use the average of other polls?

Final Results -- -- -- 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- -- 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.6
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5 52 47 Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5 50 48 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 11/01 - 11/03 3000 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
FOX News 11/01 - 11/02 971 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/02 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6

It looks like Rasmussen was one of the closest in actual percentages. I do believe that's what the pollsters lay their fame to.

Is THAT what these people have been crowing about? That Rasmussen was closer in the numbers, not the spread? LOL.

OK, even if that is so, there are 3 polling agencies in that list that are closer to even those numbers than Rasmussen.

Making this statement:

You all do know that Rasmussen correctly called the election for Obama and was closer than any other.

False.

 

[Sinatra]

fivethirtyeight.com was the closest individual site.

I've never seen their results, but I have no reason to doubt you. Do you have a link?

And fivethirtyeight ranked Rasmussen as a top three poller out of 32 different pollsters...

 

[jillian]

fivethirtyeight.com was the closest individual site.

I've never seen their results, but I have no reason to doubt you. Do you have a link?

I think he was within 1/10 of a percent

During the presidential primaries and general election of 2008 site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in baseball sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data"[4] and "weighting each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll."[5]

For the 2008 Presidential Election, FiveThirtyEight.com also used computer models to simulate the election 10,000 times per day in order to provide a continually up-to-date assessment of probability for electoral outcomes. The method proved to be highly accurate, as Silver correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in the presidential election, as well as every Senate race in 2008.

FiveThirtyEight.com - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you look at the link, you'll see the final prediction maps.

 

[traveler52]

This is counting votes before they are cast. The Republican Party is still in disaray. The Democrats are ahead in fund raising and every time Michael Steele opens his mouth, it's like manna from heaven.

Also consider the fact that 14 Republican Seats are coming open in 2010. Some of these seats while being in so called "Safe Districts" will still be contested by the Dems. The Republicans are not helping themselves by opposing health care, opposing unions and using terror (or the fear thereof) as a campaign weapon.

 

[Vast LWC]

Keep on dreaming and drinking that coolaid. Here's another, notice the disapproval ratings of congress. Do you think those people are going to turn out to support the democratic majority that controls congress? You need to think again.

RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

Read it all, the generic congressional vote and pay special attention to the direction of the country poll. Not lookin good for your party.

And that one is even further from Rasmussen's result, with a less than 3% difference.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I don't know how to make this any clearer to you guys.

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL POLLING MEANS NOTHING AT ALL.

If you want to make a point, show specific races that incumbent Dems are down. There are a few of them. But basing expectations on "Generic" congressional polling is about as accurate as expecting all incumbents to be voted out because congress's approval is so low.

 

[obama2ndterm]

After being pummeled two cycles in a row — losing six seats in 2006 and what looks like eight seats in 2008 — Senate Republicans face another challenging cycle. Even though they hold just 41 Senate seats, they are defending 19 of the 36 Senate seats that will be on the ballot this year.

 

[Vast LWC]

I don't know how to make this any clearer to you guys.

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL POLLING MEANS NOTHING AT ALL.

If you want to make a point, show specific races that incumbent Dems are down. There are a few of them. But basing expectations on "Generic" congressional polling is about as accurate as expecting all incumbents to be voted out because congress's approval is so low.

This is very true. I completely agree.

Every district has an individual opinion of it's own representative.

For instance, Nancy Pelosi's national ratings are quite low, but her ratings in her district are quite good.

 

[crpravens]

Once again you libs attack the messenger instead of the message. Keep thinking that way. 2010 is going to be fun to watch the meltdown!

 

[NYcarbineer]

You all do know that Rasmussen correctly called the election for Obama and was closer than any other. So go ahead and spin it all you want to, but the proof will be in the pudding come this November. And it doesn't look good for the libs and if they shove this health care plan down the throats of Americans which the majority does not want , it will turn out to be a disastor for the party for many years to come.

This statement has been proven false on these boards so many times that I can't understand how you can even post this without hanging your head in shame.

You should really stop lying Maple.

Rasmussen's prediction for Election '08: 6%
Actual Result: 7.3%

There were in fact EIGHT major polling agencies that were significantly closer to the actual tally than Rasmussen, including CNN.

RealClearPolitics' average was the closest of all with 7.6%.

Doesn't RCP use the average of other polls?

Final Results -- -- -- 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- -- 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.6
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5 52 47 Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5 50 48 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 11/01 - 11/03 3000 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
FOX News 11/01 - 11/02 971 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/02 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6

It looks like Rasmussen was one of the closest in actual percentages. I do believe that's what the pollsters lay their fame to.

Why do people think one poll result proves anything about any pollster?

 

[NYcarbineer]

First is it is Rasmussen.. Like that is no suprise!!

And second.. Well.. Your to stupid to understand.. Call me when you get some real news or some real polls..

Matthew Yglesias » Scott Rasmussen’s Conservative-Friendly Question-Wording

To bad it can't poll the facts..

You all do know that Rasmussen correctly called the election for Obama and was closer than any other. So go ahead and spin it all you want to, but the proof will be in the pudding come this November. And it doesn't look good for the libs and if they shove this health care plan down the throats of Americans which the majority does not want , it will turn out to be a disastor for the party for many years to come.

That is false. You've had that proven false to you before. Are you slow learner?

 

[SFC Ollie]

First is it is Rasmussen.. Like that is no suprise!!

And second.. Well.. Your to stupid to understand.. Call me when you get some real news or some real polls..

Matthew Yglesias » Scott Rasmussen’s Conservative-Friendly Question-Wording

To bad it can't poll the facts..

From your link:

"The basis for the piece is a Rasmussen poll which asks “Some people say that having the government subsidize mortgage payments for financially troubled homeowners puts the government in the position of rewarding bad behavior. Is the government rewarding bad behavior when it provides subsidies to those who are most at risk of losing their homes?” The results are 55 yes and 32 no.

Bad news for Barack Obama. But at the same time, when The Washington Post asked if people support Obama’s plan over 60 percent said yes. And The New York Times got a similar result."

Notice how the Author gives Rasmussen's entire question, but not the other two? How can you compare the three of them with only 1/3 the information given? Total fail.