My Final Election Prediction

[Lesh]

Harris needs a 4.5% lead in the national polls to have a 50/50 shot at the electoral college. She’s not anywhere close to that.

According to who?

Is that some sort of law??

 

[Mrkelly]

This is a fallacy. Trump did nothing regarding Roe. The decision came from the SCOTUS. The ball is in the hands of the states--not a federal issue as much as the DNC would like to frame it as such. As for your prediction? Like any other poll at this point, just speculation. The only poll that matters is in two days.

tRump better quit bragging that he ended Roe then

 

[Lesh]

tRump better quit bragging that he ended Roe then

Exactly

 

[Concerned American]

tRump better quit bragging that he ended Roe then

As soon as Biden quits saying that no Americans died on his watch and Harris quits denying that she was put in charge of the border. Maybe if you were educated on matters of the constitution, you would realize that there is NOTHING regarding abortion in it. Because of this fact, any legislation regarding the murder of innocent children is in the hands of the states. The SCOTUS made the proper legal decision in spite of hurting your feelings. It isn't a federal issue, never was. The democrats claim that Trump made a national abortion law and that is a bald faced lie. The democrats want to make a NATIONAL abortion law. Projection again. You're dismissed.

 

[initforme]

As soon as Biden quits saying that no Americans died on his watch and Harris quits denying that she was put in charge of the border. Maybe if you were educated on matters of the constitution, you would realize that there is NOTHING regarding abortion in it. Because of this fact, any legislation regarding the murder of innocent children is in the hands of the states. The SCOTUS made the proper legal decision in spite of hurting your feelings. It isn't a federal issue, never was. The democrats claim that Trump made a national abortion law and that is a bald faced lie. The democrats want to make a NATIONAL abortion law. Projection again. You're dismissed.

A total ban will never be acceptable. It's going to be compromise. The fringes will have to grab their kleenexes....

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Sent back to the states. Trump had nothing to do with that. No matter how much you cry about it.

Why does he keep taking credit for it?

 

[HeyNorm]

According to who?

Is that some sort of law??

According to Math.

 

[Mrkelly]

As soon as Biden quits saying that no Americans died on his watch and Harris quits denying that she was put in charge of the border. Maybe if you were educated on matters of the constitution, you would realize that there is NOTHING regarding abortion in it. Because of this fact, any legislation regarding the murder of innocent children is in the hands of the states. The SCOTUS made the proper legal decision in spite of hurting your feelings. It isn't a federal issue, never was. The democrats claim that Trump made a national abortion law and that is a bald faced lie. The democrats want to make a NATIONAL abortion law. Projection again. You're dismissed.

longest BUTWHATABOUT ever

tRump does brag about ending Roe

What about that?

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

I made a point about illegal aliens you cant refute

And what point was that, gomer?

Reducing guns would also reduce crime, you imbecile.

But you are a racist and only care about punishing brown people.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Oh yeah as if all of the criminals in this country are going to just comply with it.



Oh I sure feel educated now as I'm getting this information from the prince of the idiots. I would say king, but the OP already taken that title.

Happy to help, lightweight. You are one dirt stupid MAGAt. No wonder your unsophisticated, uneducated gomer ass votes for Trump.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Owning guns is legal.

Illegally crossing our border is not.

If there were less guns, there would be less crime.

Fact.

 

[Mrkelly]

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

According to Math.

MAGAt Math.

The Electoral College -- Affirmative Action for imbecile old white men Repugs like Trump and Bush who can't win the popular vote.

 

[Concerned American]

A total ban will never be acceptable. It's going to be compromise. The fringes will have to grab their kleenexes....

No one has called for a total ban. Every state has exceptions. Many states want unfettered freedom to murder innocents at will with no restrictions. That is in violation of the US constitution, 14th amendment, section one.
nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

 

[Concerned American]

Why does he keep taking credit for it?

Why do the democrats keep making their lying political claims? Politicians. The fact is that your belief that he did, says more about your ignorance of the constitution's provisions than it does about his honesty. Is that clear now?

 

[initforme]

No one has called for a total ban. Every state has exceptions. Many states want unfettered freedom to murder innocents at will with no restrictions. That is in violation of the US constitution, 14th amendment, section one.
nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

As president Trump has said it's a states voters issue now.

 

[Concerned American]

longest BUTWHATABOUT ever

tRump does brag about ending Roe

What about that?

I really don't care if he takes credit for what the SCOTUS correctly decided. You should be ashamed that you have so little knowledge of what the constitution actually says.
What about that? Read the 14th amendment, section 1.
nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

 

[Nobody911]

I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.

I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.

I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.

I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.

I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.

More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.

I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.

Importance of Swing States in the 2024 US Presidential Election

Swing states remain crucial in the 2024 US presidential election due to their potential to tip the balance of the Electoral College. Unlike other elections where the popular vote can determine the outcome, the presidential election is decided by electors from each state, making swing states pivotal battlegrounds.

Current Landscape of Swing States

The key swing states identified for this election cycle include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are characterized by their competitive nature, with polling indicating that the margins between candidates are extremely tight. For instance, the outcome in these states could be decided by just a few thousand votes, highlighting their significance.

Voter Enthusiasm and Strategy

Voter enthusiasm also plays a critical role in these swing states. Recent polls suggest that Democrats show greater enthusiasm in states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Republicans have an edge in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. This enthusiasm can influence turnout, which is vital in close races. Candidates are tailoring their strategies to focus heavily on these battlegrounds, recognizing that winning a few key states can secure the presidency. The closeness of the race in these areas means that even slight shifts in voter sentiment can lead to significant changes in the overall election outcome.

Yes, swing states are indeed the game changers in the 2024 US presidential election. Their competitive nature, combined with varying levels of voter enthusiasm and strategic campaigning, underscores their importance in determining the next president. As the election approaches, the focus on these states will likely intensify, reflecting their critical role in the electoral process.

Actually it's kinda like the weather forecast. Any forcasters can be wrong.

Sources :

Presidential election odds 2024: Forecaster issues dramatic update

Donald Trump used President Joe Biden 's comments about his 'garbage' supporters to pull of a stunt reminiscent of his shift at McDonald's with just six days until the election .

www.dailymail.co.uk

Kamala Harris ahead in enough swing states to win, Times poll says

Final survey before the 2024 US election shows the Democrat leading Donald Trump in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

www.thetimes.com

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2024 US presidential election: Try our swing state results simulator

Seven swing states will tip the US presidential election's outcome in favor of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The other states, meanwhile, are already so polarized that they can no longer switch sides.

www.lemonde.fr

Swing state voters who could determine the 2024 election

Residents in key states describe constant ads, neighbourhood sign wars and high anxiety ahead of the 2024 election.

www.bbc.com

These seven states will decide the election. Here’s what we learned reporting on the ground

The White House is won not by popular vote but electoral college votes taken state by state. These races are incredibly close

www.theguardian.com

 

[HeyNorm]

MAGAt Math.

The Electoral College -- Affirmative Action for imbecile old white men Repugs like Trump and Bush who can't win the popular vote.

So in other words, you can’t do math

 

[Mac-7]

And what point was that, gomer?

Reducing guns would also reduce crime, you imbecile.

But you are a racist and only care about punishing brown people.

Are you back to slinging the snide personal insults?

Thats the best evidence that MAGAs are winning the argument