A large group of scientists at many different universities have repeatedly confirmed that the CO2 dragon in the sky is a political myth.
http://www.biocab.org/Overlapping_Absorption_Bands.pdf
Excuse me? The document to which you linked indicates one author. A group requires a minimum of two elements.
A large group of scientists at many different universities have repeatedly confirmed that the CO2 dragon in the sky is a political myth.
http://www.biocab.org/Overlapping_Absorption_Bands.pdf
Has the document you linked been subjected to the peer review process? If so:
- In what peer-reviewed science journal was it published?
- When was it published?
I know the answer to both questions: it was not published anywhere at any time. There's a good reason for that, and that reason is noted later in this post.
You are hardly the first person, OP, to citie "Determination of the Total Emissivity of a Mixture of Gases Containing 5% of Water Vapor and 0.039% of Carbon Dioxide at Overlapping Absorption Bands" (hereafter referred to as "Determination"). Dr. Nahle has been
touted by
many who would love to see the global warming issue just go away.
Nahle claims to prove that an increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 will result in a
cooling effect on the climate system. He does this with idealized calculations of radiative properties of a mixture of gases. Before discussing whether his ideas are valid, I am compelled to point out that his paper is
terribly written (I'm referring to the technical merit of Nahle's writing, not the grammar.). For anyone thinking that people can’t get published when they do work that goes against the current understanding, this is a good example of work that could never be published either way! I don’t buy the idea that one won’t get published if one proposes something “against the grain." There is no question, however, that one certainly won’t get published if one is a terrible writer.
In "Determination's" case, the technical writing is so bad, that the equations are hard to follow. [1] Some symbols are not defined, or the symbols are switched to different ones without explanation. Only individuals familiar with the type of derivation Nahle uses can make "heads or tails" of the thing, makes it possible to figure out what was done, but it really shouldn’t be this hard.
The problem with Nahle’s idea:
His whole conclusion hinges on the “correction” factor (Δε) where the emission spectra overlap:
He assumes a mixture of water vapor and CO2. With the equation above he calculates the emissivity of the mixture as...
...yet he compares the emissivity of the mixture with the correction factor for a new mixture that includes oxygen, when his original correction factor did no include (account for) the presence of oxygen in the air [2]....
...and declares the following (slightly inaccurate) conclusion:
“The emissivity of the water vapor decreased by 0.0872 units.”
He really means to say that the
emissivity of the mixture decreases. Why? Because he has assumed a
fixed amount of mass and unintentionally
decreased the amount of water vapor in the mixture, something that though it doesn't alter the invalidity of his conclusion, Nahle partially acknowledges this issue:
“The general conclusion is that by adding any gas with total emissivity/absorptivity lower than the total emissivity/absorptivity of the main absorber/emitter in the mixture of gases makes that the total emissivity/absorptivity of the mixture of gases decreases.”
The substance of what he's done is replace some H2O molecules with molecules of a lower emissivity. In the case of more CO2, it makes perfect sense that the emissivity of a mixture with
fixed mass would decrease, since H2O is a stronger infrared absorber than CO2. But, then he makes the incorrect inference that adding CO2 must therefore cool the planet, which is a gross misrepresentation of...and get this...
his own results.
Increasing atmospheric CO2 will not lead to reduced H2O, because the mass of the atmosphere is not fixed.
Producing a more accurate version of his calculation is a bit difficult. The mass of CO2 in the atmosphere is small compared to other constituents, but its effect can still be quite large. The more complicated part of the problem comes with understanding the feedbacks. Water vapor is expected to increase with increasing CO2, but it’s not straightforward to build this effect into a simple calculation like the one presented by Nahle. Doing so in a single equation would require many more dubious simplifications.
We have definitely not observed a decrease in H2O, but there has been an obvious increase in CO2. Below is a plot of globally averaged column water vapor from NCEP Reanalysis 2. As we can clearly see, the trend is positive (and statistically significant), consistent with the notion that water vapor increases with increasing CO2.
Mean and Trend Line Legend:
- Monthly mean -- Grey horizontal curve
- Annual mean -- Black curve
- Linear Trend (significant at the 99% confidence level) -- Red line
Notes:
- Almost certainly, individuals who were taught the math skills, but who don't routinely use them will struggle to follow Nahle's reasoning. I say that because that is the challenge I faced; thus I had to call an acquaintance to ask him about the paper's content. The veritable "alphabet soup" of undefined symbols made it impossible for my math-major son, whom I called first, to tell me what was going on, that even though the math itself, as math in papers of this nature goes, isn't terribly complicated.
The man I called was not familiar with the paper, but he mentioned a colleague who was. What I've shared above is that researcher's analysis, not mine. (The linked CV is a little bit out of date. Dr. Hannah is currently working the Lawrence Livermore Lab working on the ACME project.)
- Don't ask me how an ostensibly credible scientist begins an analysis such as the one Nahle attempted to preform and doesn't account for oxygen being in the air, but "sure as God made little green apples" he did not.