A quick and dirty overview of Global Warming
Global warming - Wikipedia
Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.[2] Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming.[3][4][5] Although the increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone into the oceans. The rest has melted ice and warmed the continents and atmosphere.[6][a] Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over tens to thousands of years.[7]
Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is mostly being caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide (CO2).[8][9][10] Human-made carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. Methane and other, often much more potent, greenhouse gasses are also rising along with CO2.[11] Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.[12][13][14][15] Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for the highest emissions scenario.[16] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[17] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[19]
Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe.[20][21] Anticipated effects include warming global temperature, rising sea levels, changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[22] Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall;[23] ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels.[24][25] Because the climate system has a large "inertia" and greenhouse gasses will stay in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries, but will persist for tens of thousands of years.[26]
Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[27] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.[28] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required[29] and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels,[c] with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[31]
Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing. A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54% consider it "a very serious problem". There are significant regional differences, with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions) among the least concerned.[32]
Global warming - Wikipedia
Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.[2] Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming.[3][4][5] Although the increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone into the oceans. The rest has melted ice and warmed the continents and atmosphere.[6][a] Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over tens to thousands of years.[7]
Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is mostly being caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide (CO2).[8][9][10] Human-made carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. Methane and other, often much more potent, greenhouse gasses are also rising along with CO2.[11] Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.[12][13][14][15] Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for the highest emissions scenario.[16] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[17] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[19]
Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe.[20][21] Anticipated effects include warming global temperature, rising sea levels, changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[22] Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall;[23] ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels.[24][25] Because the climate system has a large "inertia" and greenhouse gasses will stay in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries, but will persist for tens of thousands of years.[26]
Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[27] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.[28] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required[29] and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels,[c] with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[31]
Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing. A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54% consider it "a very serious problem". There are significant regional differences, with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions) among the least concerned.[32]
- 16 January 2015: NASA GISS: NASA GISS: NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record, in: Research News. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA. Retrieved 20 February 2015
- Jump up^ Gillis, Justin (28 November 2015). "Short Answers to Hard Questions About Climate Change". The New York Times. Retrieved 29 November 2015.
- Jump up^ Hartmann, D. L.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Rusticucci, M. (2013). "2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface" (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 198. Evidence for a warming world comes from multiple independent climate indicators, from high up in the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. They include changes in surface, atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; glaciers; snow cover; sea ice; sea level and atmospheric water vapour. Scientists from all over the world have independently verified this evidence many times.
- Jump up^ "Myth vs Facts....". EPA (US). 2013.The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is 'unequivocal'. This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).
- Jump up^ Borenstein, Seth (29 November 2015). "Earth is a wilder, warmer place since last climate deal made". Retrieved 29 November 2015.
- Jump up^ Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S.R. (2013). "3: Observations: Ocean"(PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 257. Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) and warming of the continents and atmosphere account for the remainder of the change in energy.
- Jump up^ IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 2, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."
- ^ Jump up to:a b "CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 1 November 2015. The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50% and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate.
- Jump up^ "CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 7 March 2015. The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together
- Jump up^ America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0. (p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
- Jump up^ "EPA". EPA. EPA.
- ^ Jump up to:a b Buis, Alan; Ramsayer, Kate; Rasmussen, Carol (12 November 2015). "A Breathing Planet, Off Balance". NASA. Retrieved 13 November 2015.
- ^ Jump up to:a b Staff (12 November 2015). "Audio (66:01) - NASA News Conference - Carbon & Climate Telecon". NASA. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
- ^ Jump up to:a b St. Fleur, Nicholas (10 November 2015). "Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Levels Hit Record, Report Says". The New York Times. Retrieved 11 November 2015.
- ^ Jump up to:a b Ritter, Karl (9 November 2015). "UK: In 1st, global temps average could be 1 degree C higher". AP News. Retrieved 11 November 2015.
- Jump up^ Stocker et al., Technical Summary, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
- Jump up^ "Joint Science Academies' Statement" (PDF). Retrieved 6 January 2014.
- Jump up^ Kirby, Alex (17 May 2001). "Science academies back Kyoto". BBC News. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
- ^ Jump up to:a b DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. (2007). Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. p. 68. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0.
- Jump up^ Parry, M.L.; et al., "Technical summary", Box TS.6. The main projected impacts for regions, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, pp. 59–63
- Jump up^ Solomon et al., Technical Summary, Section TS.5.3: Regional-Scale Projections, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Jump up^ Lu, Jian; Vechhi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (6): L06805. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3406805L. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443.
- Jump up^ On snowfall:
- Christopher Joyce (15 February 2010). "Get This: Warming Planet Can Mean More Snow". NPR.
- "Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists". 1 March 2011.
- "Does record snowfall disprove global warming?". 9 July 2010. Retrieved 14 December 2014.
- Jump up^ Battisti, David; Naylor, Rosamund L. (2009). "Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat". Science. 323 (5911): 240–4. doi:10.1126/science.1164363. PMID 19131626. Retrieved 13 April 2012.
- Jump up^ US NRC 2012, p. 26
- Jump up^ Peter U. Clark et al.: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change 6, 2016, 360-369, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2923
- Jump up^ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) (2011). "Status of Ratification of the Convention". UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC.. Most countries in the world are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C limit. As of 25 November 2011, there are 195 parties (194 states and 1 regional economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC.
- Jump up^ "Article 2". The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner, excerpt from the founding international treaty that took force on 21 March 1994.
- Jump up^ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) (2011). "Conference of the Parties – Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4" (PDF). UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC: 3."(...) deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels"
- Jump up^ America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5. The average temperature of the Earth's surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades.
- Jump up^
- Sutter, John D.; Berlinger, Joshua (12 December 2015). "Final draft of climate deal formally accepted in Paris". CNN. Cable News Network, Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved 12 December 2015.
- Vaughan, A. (12 December 2015). "Paris climate deal: key points at a glance". The Guardian. London and Manchester, UK. Retrieved 12 December 2015.. Archived 1 August 2016.
- Jump up^ Stokes, Bruce; Wike, Richard; Carle, Jill (5 November 2015). "Global Concern about Climate Change, Broad Support for Limiting Emissions: U.S., China Less Worried; Partisan Divides in Key Countries". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 18 June2016.
