Statistikhengst
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Closing the books on this thread:
Polling round-up, 21-31 August, 2015 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
Morning Consult, a Republican pollster, put out nomination and GE numbers yesterday, 31.08.2015.
GOP nomination: Trump +28
DEM nomination: Clinton +29
The presidential matchup numbers, Hillary vs. Bush, Rubio, Paul, Walker and Trump, are interesting to see.
I've also done some of the internals. They are MOST enlightening.
Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,102 RRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5
parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll
Clinton 43 (47) / Trump 42 (41), Clinton +1 (+6)
Clinton 43 (44) / Bush 41 (41), Clinton +2 (+3)
Clinton 44 (46) / Paul 39 (39), Clinton +5 (+7)
Clinton 45 (46) / Rubio 39 (39), Clinton +6 (+7)
Clinton 46 (48) / Walker 35 (35), Clinton +11 (+13)
Here are some of the poll internals from Morning Consult:
Except against Trump, Clinton scores a higher % with Democratic MEN than with Democratic women. This is a statistical phenomenon I have not seen before. Light analysis afterward.
Women's vote: 1,075 of 2,015 polled = 53.35%
Clinton 46 / Bush 37, Clinton +9
Clinton 45 / Paul 35, Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Trump 35, Clinton +12
Clinton 47 / Rubio 34, Clinton +13
Clinton 47 / Walker 30, Clinton +17
Women's vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +11
Men's vote: 940 of 2,015 polled = 46.65%
Clinton 45 / Walker 42, Clinton +3
Clinton 43 / Paul 43, TIE
Clinton 43 / Rubio 46, Rubio +3
Clinton 40 / Bush 46, Bush +6
Clinton 39 / Trump 50, Trump +11
Mens' vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +7
By ethnic group:
White vote: 1,641 of 2,015 polled = 81.44% Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 74.76%
The white vote was 72% of the electorate in 2012 and is expected to be between 70%-70.5% at best case scenario in 2016. Therefore, the White vote in this poll is verifiably overrepresented.
Clinton 40 / Walker 40, TIE
Clinton 39 / Rubio 44, Rubio +5
Clinton 38 / Paul 44, Paul +6
Clinton 38 / Bush 46, Bush +8
Clinton 37 / Trump 47, Trump +10
White vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +20
Right now, all 5 Republican candidates are way under Romney's +20 from 2012 and his +20 in the White vote only got him to 47.15% of the national popular vote.
Black Vote: 259 of 2,015 polled = 12.85%. Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 11.80%
The Black vote was 13% of the electorate in 2012. This statistic is right on the mark.
Clinton 74 / Bush 16, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Trump 17, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Paul 13, Clinton +62
Clinton 76 / Rubio 14, Clinton +62
Clinton 80 / Walker 9, Clinton +71
Black vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +87
Latino vote: 180 of 2,015 polled = 8.93% Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 8.20%
Latinos were 10% of the electorate in 2012 and are expected to be at least 11% of the electorate in 2016. Therefore, the Latino vote is slightly underrepresented in this poll.
Clinton 48 / Bush 42, Clinton +6
Clinton 53 / Paul 35, Clinton +18
Clinton 55 / Rubio 36, Clinton +19
Clinton 56 / Walker 33, Clinton +22
Clinton 58 / Trump 33, Clinton +26
Latino vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +47
"Other" vote: 115 of 2,015 = 5.70%. Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 5.24%
Clinton 51 / Walker 28, Clinton +23
Clinton 56 / Rubio 28, Clinton +28
Clinton 57 / Bush 23, Clinton +34
Clinton 58 / Trump 23, Clinton +35
Clinton 58 / Paul 19, Clinton +39
"Other" vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +20
In the category "other", Clinton is outperforming Obama.
Now, why the numbers the way I worked them up?
First, the poll says there are 2,015 respondents, so I calculated the size of each group against the total of 2,015 and came up with a certain percentage. But when you add the group sizes together (white 1,641, black 259, latino 180 and "other" 115), the addition shows a group of 2,195.
This can mean one of two things: that the latino and "other" statistics include some people who also include "white" on their self-description, -or- the numbers don't add up.
To review, from 2012, Obama vs. Romney:
White vote, 72% of the electorate
Black vote, 13% of the electorate
Latino vote, 10% of the electorate
Asian and "other" vote, 5% of the electorate.
This survey, based on a total number of 2,195:
White vote: 74.76% (75%)
Black vote: 13% (13%)
Latino vote: 8.20% (8%)
other vote: 5.24% (5%) - makes 101%, can happen with roundings, is nothing unusual.
This model (white 75, black 13, latino 8, other 5) is pretty much what the Romney team was hoping for in 2012, but did not happen, especially the 75% white model. It is certainly not going to happen in 2016.
So, I can mathematically prove that this poll, based on the size of the survey groups, is tilted hard toward the Republicans. No big surprise, when you consider that this is a Republican polling firm. But this would mean that Hillary's +1 over Trump is more likely +3 to +4, and so on and so on and so on.
One more:
Rural vote:
Clinton 35 / Walker 40, Walker +5
Clinton 37 / Rubio 45, Rubio +8
Clinton 35 / Bush 45, Bush +10
Clinton 35 / Paul 45, Paul +10
Clinton 32 / Trump 52, Trump +20
This metric not measured most exit polling but assumed is roughly GOP +30. Think of those very rural (very white) counties in Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, where Romney got +40 or more. Mercer and Putnam counties in Ohio are good examples thereof. Trump is doing at least twice as well in the rural vote as the other Republicans polled.
If this poll is even half-way right, then the Republicans are definitely doing better in the Black vote than for quite a while, but Hillary is doing better in the mens' vote and the White vote than a Democrat has done for a while.
And in the rural vote, she is doing EXCEPTIONALLY well. This is a key factor that I bet others are going to start picking up on.
As evidence, screenshots of all these internals:
So, for a Democratic candidate who is supposed to be suffering so much, even in a starkly Republican poll, she is still leading all 5 major GOP candidates, from +1 to +13, and in a poll that is decidedly weighted to the Right - something I just mathematically proved.
FYI.
Polling round-up, 21-31 August, 2015 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
Morning Consult, a Republican pollster, put out nomination and GE numbers yesterday, 31.08.2015.
GOP nomination: Trump +28
DEM nomination: Clinton +29
The presidential matchup numbers, Hillary vs. Bush, Rubio, Paul, Walker and Trump, are interesting to see.
I've also done some of the internals. They are MOST enlightening.
Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,102 RRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5
parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll
Clinton 43 (47) / Trump 42 (41), Clinton +1 (+6)
Clinton 43 (44) / Bush 41 (41), Clinton +2 (+3)
Clinton 44 (46) / Paul 39 (39), Clinton +5 (+7)
Clinton 45 (46) / Rubio 39 (39), Clinton +6 (+7)
Clinton 46 (48) / Walker 35 (35), Clinton +11 (+13)
Here are some of the poll internals from Morning Consult:
Except against Trump, Clinton scores a higher % with Democratic MEN than with Democratic women. This is a statistical phenomenon I have not seen before. Light analysis afterward.
Women's vote: 1,075 of 2,015 polled = 53.35%
Clinton 46 / Bush 37, Clinton +9
Clinton 45 / Paul 35, Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Trump 35, Clinton +12
Clinton 47 / Rubio 34, Clinton +13
Clinton 47 / Walker 30, Clinton +17
Women's vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +11
Men's vote: 940 of 2,015 polled = 46.65%
Clinton 45 / Walker 42, Clinton +3
Clinton 43 / Paul 43, TIE
Clinton 43 / Rubio 46, Rubio +3
Clinton 40 / Bush 46, Bush +6
Clinton 39 / Trump 50, Trump +11
Mens' vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +7
By ethnic group:
White vote: 1,641 of 2,015 polled = 81.44% Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 74.76%
The white vote was 72% of the electorate in 2012 and is expected to be between 70%-70.5% at best case scenario in 2016. Therefore, the White vote in this poll is verifiably overrepresented.
Clinton 40 / Walker 40, TIE
Clinton 39 / Rubio 44, Rubio +5
Clinton 38 / Paul 44, Paul +6
Clinton 38 / Bush 46, Bush +8
Clinton 37 / Trump 47, Trump +10
White vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +20
Right now, all 5 Republican candidates are way under Romney's +20 from 2012 and his +20 in the White vote only got him to 47.15% of the national popular vote.
Black Vote: 259 of 2,015 polled = 12.85%. Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 11.80%
The Black vote was 13% of the electorate in 2012. This statistic is right on the mark.
Clinton 74 / Bush 16, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Trump 17, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Paul 13, Clinton +62
Clinton 76 / Rubio 14, Clinton +62
Clinton 80 / Walker 9, Clinton +71
Black vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +87
Latino vote: 180 of 2,015 polled = 8.93% Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 8.20%
Latinos were 10% of the electorate in 2012 and are expected to be at least 11% of the electorate in 2016. Therefore, the Latino vote is slightly underrepresented in this poll.
Clinton 48 / Bush 42, Clinton +6
Clinton 53 / Paul 35, Clinton +18
Clinton 55 / Rubio 36, Clinton +19
Clinton 56 / Walker 33, Clinton +22
Clinton 58 / Trump 33, Clinton +26
Latino vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +47
"Other" vote: 115 of 2,015 = 5.70%. Of total 2,195, when you add all 4 ethnicities: 5.24%
Clinton 51 / Walker 28, Clinton +23
Clinton 56 / Rubio 28, Clinton +28
Clinton 57 / Bush 23, Clinton +34
Clinton 58 / Trump 23, Clinton +35
Clinton 58 / Paul 19, Clinton +39
"Other" vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +20
In the category "other", Clinton is outperforming Obama.
Now, why the numbers the way I worked them up?
First, the poll says there are 2,015 respondents, so I calculated the size of each group against the total of 2,015 and came up with a certain percentage. But when you add the group sizes together (white 1,641, black 259, latino 180 and "other" 115), the addition shows a group of 2,195.
This can mean one of two things: that the latino and "other" statistics include some people who also include "white" on their self-description, -or- the numbers don't add up.
To review, from 2012, Obama vs. Romney:
White vote, 72% of the electorate
Black vote, 13% of the electorate
Latino vote, 10% of the electorate
Asian and "other" vote, 5% of the electorate.
This survey, based on a total number of 2,195:
White vote: 74.76% (75%)
Black vote: 13% (13%)
Latino vote: 8.20% (8%)
other vote: 5.24% (5%) - makes 101%, can happen with roundings, is nothing unusual.
This model (white 75, black 13, latino 8, other 5) is pretty much what the Romney team was hoping for in 2012, but did not happen, especially the 75% white model. It is certainly not going to happen in 2016.
So, I can mathematically prove that this poll, based on the size of the survey groups, is tilted hard toward the Republicans. No big surprise, when you consider that this is a Republican polling firm. But this would mean that Hillary's +1 over Trump is more likely +3 to +4, and so on and so on and so on.
One more:
Rural vote:
Clinton 35 / Walker 40, Walker +5
Clinton 37 / Rubio 45, Rubio +8
Clinton 35 / Bush 45, Bush +10
Clinton 35 / Paul 45, Paul +10
Clinton 32 / Trump 52, Trump +20
This metric not measured most exit polling but assumed is roughly GOP +30. Think of those very rural (very white) counties in Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, where Romney got +40 or more. Mercer and Putnam counties in Ohio are good examples thereof. Trump is doing at least twice as well in the rural vote as the other Republicans polled.
If this poll is even half-way right, then the Republicans are definitely doing better in the Black vote than for quite a while, but Hillary is doing better in the mens' vote and the White vote than a Democrat has done for a while.
And in the rural vote, she is doing EXCEPTIONALLY well. This is a key factor that I bet others are going to start picking up on.
As evidence, screenshots of all these internals:
So, for a Democratic candidate who is supposed to be suffering so much, even in a starkly Republican poll, she is still leading all 5 major GOP candidates, from +1 to +13, and in a poll that is decidedly weighted to the Right - something I just mathematically proved.
FYI.
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