More stupid U.S. escalation with China over Taiwan

[gipper]

Who is "they?"

The fools controlling the USG.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

How serious is the actual immediate threat of a military conflict over Taiwan?

Nobody knows for sure. Nobody knows when or how, accidentally or on purpose, such conflict may break out …

The generally conservative and highly reputable “China expert” Bill Bishop, founder of the pay-walled “Sinocism” newsletter, reports:

Pelosi and a possible Taiwan trip - There have been rumors going around that before her planned April trip warnings were sent to the US government that her plane would not be allowed to land [my italics]. If that is one of the things that the PLA is considering then things could [get] really dangerous really quickly. We are still at least 10 days away from any possible trip, one thing to watch will be if and how authoritative media like People's Daily warn about the consequences [of] a Pelosi trip. The fact that the US military does not think a trip is a "good idea", and I assume by that Biden means USIndoPacom, who would bear the brunt of anything kinetic over her trip, is an indication that threats are being taken seriously and that the PLA has lots of capabilities that could cause the US military and Taiwan military a lot of problems.

Here is a recent sobering RAND corporation report:

Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by China.

 

[Rogue AI]

They won’t be taking Taiwan. China may try pushing Taiwan around, but I doubt they’d be stupid enough to try anything.

Why would you think that? Taiwan is an island, take out the ports and airports and they will surrender sooner or later. That could be accomplished that with nothing more than Chinese hypersonic missiles. The problem with that approach is the appearance, so China would likely invade in force. We really can't stop it without a nuclear war. Not to mention North Korea could kick off, leaving us in a bad situation. Taiwan isn't worth it.

 

[gipper]

Why would you think that? Taiwan is an island, take out the ports and airports and they will surrender sooner or later. That could be accomplished that with nothing more than Chinese hypersonic missiles. The problem with that approach is the appearance, so China would likely invade in force. We really can't stop it without a nuclear war. Not to mention North Korea could kick off, leaving us in a bad situation. Taiwan isn't worth it.

Doubt it. China did nothing about Hong Kong even though they easily could have taken it from the Brits before it was transferred. Afterward China allowed Hong Kong autonomy for over two decades. So it seems unlikely China would try to take Taiwan by force. They know it’s only a matter of time before the US is too weak to prevent a peaceful China takeover.

 

[Rogue AI]

Doubt it. China did nothing about Hong Kong even though they easily could have taken it from the Brits before it was transferred. Afterward China allowed Hong Kong autonomy for over two decades. So it seems unlikely China would try to take Taiwan by force. They know it’s only a matter of time before the US is too weak to prevent a peaceful China takeover.

That was decades ago, plus they had a deal. Taiwan is simply an open question. Force was always an option. The US has never been weaker than now in the modern age. Either the US is all in or it's time to walk away.

 

[konradv]

Why would you think that? Taiwan is an island, take out the ports and airports and they will surrender sooner or later. That could be accomplished that with nothing more than Chinese hypersonic missiles. The problem with that approach is the appearance, so China would likely invade in force. We really can't stop it without a nuclear war. Not to mention North Korea could kick off, leaving us in a bad situation. Taiwan isn't worth it.

Any invasion could be sunk before ever reaching Taiwan. The Chinese military is not up to snuff. Years of a one child policy have created generations of little princes that don’t have what it takes to make a competent military. The way to treat China is to be diplomatic up front, but leave no confusion about what would happen, if they tried anything, through back channels.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Biden is such a pussy.

Xi declares the Biden Family as dependents on his tax return

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Pelosi’s big trip to Taiwan draws ire from China — and White House
The critics are right, a visit from such a high ranking official would be a serious mistake and the president should ask her to cancel it.

President Biden also seemed to question the wisdom of the trip, but he presented the objection to Pelosi’s visit as coming from military officials rather than directly from him. “The military thinks that it’s not a good idea right now,” Biden said on Wednesday in response to a reporter’s question.

In this case, the military is right. While there is an understandable desire to show support for Taiwan in response to increasing tensions with China, Pelosi’s visit would be a serious mistake that would likely make things worse. Sending one of the highest-ranking U.S. officials to Taiwan is bound to be very provocative, and it would expose Taiwan to additional risks for the sake of nothing more important than a glorified photo op.


The report of Pelosi’s planned visit also comes in the wake of other visits to Taiwan by former top officials, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Secretary of Defense Mike Esper. During his visit, Esper called for an end to U.S. “strategic ambiguity.” Coming so soon after Esper’s remarks, a Pelosi visit would likely be interpreted as another step in the direction of making an explicit U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense.

Given that the president already erroneously declared in May that the U.S. has a commitment to fight for Taiwan, there is considerable confusion about the Biden administration’s policy on this question. The apparent lack of coordination between Biden and Pelosi over the August visit has only added to that confusion.

Pelosi's big trip to Taiwan draws ire from China â and White House

The critics are right, a visit from such a high ranking official would be a serious mistake and the president should ask her to cancel it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

^ Xi approves!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

How serious is the actual immediate threat of a military conflict over Taiwan?

Nobody knows for sure. Nobody knows when or how, accidentally or on purpose, such conflict may break out …

The generally conservative and highly reputable “China expert” Bill Bishop, founder of the pay-walled “Sinocism” newsletter, reports:



Here is a recent sobering RAND corporation report:

Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by China.

Taiwan should join NATO, it's as North Atlantic as Ukraine

 

[konradv]

Taiwan should join NATO, it's as North Atlantic as Ukraine

The name is the least relevant aspect of the question. Why are conservatives suddenly carrying Xi’s water? Has their Putin-love run it’s course?

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

We can always count on CrusaderFrank — just like the U.S. horse cavalry. I already responded to this sort of “opinion” in comment #9:

I don’t expect any intelligence from the Trumpian “peanut gallery” here, which sees the problem as totally partisan, being centered on Biden having “no balls.” The problem is with the bipartisan U.S drift toward repudiation of the “One China” commitments we made to China decades ago.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

What we say and what we will do about Taiwan are two different things. If there’s anything to be said about Biden, it’s that he’s too honest for his own good.

Lol, the dude is stupid and depraved. Honest? Lol.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

We can always count on CrusaderFrank — just like the U.S. horse cavalry. I already responded to this sort of “opinion” in comment #9:

It's OK, we know that cyberspace is a key battlefront for the CCP. You're doing swell! No one can tell whose side your on!

 

[B. Kidd]

China has carte blanche to invade Taiwan under the weakling Quid Pro Joe.

Should occur by the end of this October.
If not, then China missed the boat.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

“It's OK, we know that cyberspace is a key battlefront for the CCP. You're doing swell! No one can tell whose side your on!” — @CrusaderFrank

I am against moronic idiots like you and B. Kidd , who throw shit around like monkeys in a peanut gallery. Also against cultists and propagandists on all the other sides, against politicians who are bringing about a totally unnecessary war over Taiwan.

 

[B. Kidd]

There are only 2 months of the year when storms subside and the seas are calm enough around Taiwan to support a Chinese invasion.
April and October.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The name is the least relevant aspect of the question. Why are conservatives suddenly carrying Xi’s water? Has their Putin-love run it’s course?

Xi owns the Bidens

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I am against moronic idiots like you and B. Kidd , who throw shit around like monkeys in a peanut gallery. Also against cultists and propagandists on all the other sides, against politicians who are bringing about a totally unnecessary war over Taiwan.

We must not resist Xi.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

“There are only 2 months of the year when storms subside and the seas are calm enough around Taiwan to support a Chinese invasion. April and October.” — B. Kidd

The articles and links I provided — which clearly you haven’t read — do not predict “an invasion.”

 

[B. Kidd]

The articles and links I provided — which clearly you haven’t read — do not predict “an invasion.”

So you want a guaranteed heads up. Got it!
Sorry, global politics doesn't work that way.