Market Turn Coming, C, GM

[Indiana Oracle]

Warned day before bank stocks recently turned to tighten stops. Now the broader market is nearing a point where a big correction is imminent.
Same advice as before. Not predicting how far the pull back will extend, but it is unlikely to be small.

I rode the up wave on C, BAC and AA from early March and am now out of all. C is the weakest of the big banks. In my view its future is a breakup where its parts are sold off for $1, $3 or some other similar figure. BAC along with the others have more bad news coming and are due for a good-sized pullback, but are probably going to be ok. Predicted PPIP would fail, and it has. See post on that and the logic.

I hold GM and UNG right now. GM is a flat-out contrarian play assuming Washington will not let it fail outright. That said it may face the same fate as C.

It is too early for X, CAT, INTC and GE (among my favorite long-term holdings)

 

[wimpy77]

i think it will happen, but im tired of people trying to predict the damn thing. just like back in february when people were predicting the bottom. it will happen when it happens and nobody can predict it. but it just might happen within the next two weeks once the stress test results are released. doug kass thing a correction of about 5% to 7% correction is coming. im like you i don't know how much of a correction is coming but its gonna come.

 

[Indiana Oracle]

i think it will happen, but im tired of people trying to predict the damn thing. just like back in february when people were predicting the bottom. it will happen when it happens and nobody can predict it. but it just might happen within the next two weeks once the stress test results are released. doug kass thing a correction of about 5% to 7% correction is coming. im like you i don't know how much of a correction is coming but its gonna come.

With Washington playing a much bigger role in market moving actions and news right now, the talking heads seem to be running out of things to say. I too am tired of it all but pay attention to Kass and Kudlow's crowd. The indicators this time, however, are all but unmistakable. I am hoping for a 'W', but probably half the universe feels the same way so it is less likely to happen. We shall see.

 

[editec]

When stock picking depends on watching what WASHINTON is going to do, you KNOW that capitalism is dying, folks.

The question is really was it ever really alive?

I mean, for us down here in the trenches it certainly is alive and well, but for the movers and shakers?

I'm not sure the game they played was ever really capitalism.

 

[wimpy77]

i think it will happen, but im tired of people trying to predict the damn thing. just like back in february when people were predicting the bottom. it will happen when it happens and nobody can predict it. but it just might happen within the next two weeks once the stress test results are released. doug kass thing a correction of about 5% to 7% correction is coming. im like you i don't know how much of a correction is coming but its gonna come.

With Washington playing a much bigger role in market moving actions and news right now, the talking heads seem to be running out of things to say. I too am tired of it all but pay attention to Kass and Kudlow's crowd. The indicators this time, however, are all but unmistakable. I am hoping for a 'W', but probably half the universe feels the same way so it is less likely to happen. We shall see.

i am too hoping for a "W" but i think are probably going to get a "L"

 

[Indiana Oracle]

i think it will happen, but im tired of people trying to predict the damn thing. just like back in february when people were predicting the bottom. it will happen when it happens and nobody can predict it. but it just might happen within the next two weeks once the stress test results are released. doug kass thing a correction of about 5% to 7% correction is coming. im like you i don't know how much of a correction is coming but its gonna come.

With Washington playing a much bigger role in market moving actions and news right now, the talking heads seem to be running out of things to say. I too am tired of it all but pay attention to Kass and Kudlow's crowd. The indicators this time, however, are all but unmistakable. I am hoping for a 'W', but probably half the universe feels the same way so it is less likely to happen. We shall see.

i am too hoping for a "W" but i think are probably going to get a "L"

A distinct possibility without doubt.

 

[Iriemon]

Warned day before bank stocks recently turned to tighten stops. Now the broader market is nearing a point where a big correction is imminent.
Same advice as before. Not predicting how far the pull back will extend, but it is unlikely to be small.

I rode the up wave on C, BAC and AA from early March and am now out of all. C is the weakest of the big banks. In my view its future is a breakup where its parts are sold off for $1, $3 or some other similar figure. BAC along with the others have more bad news coming and are due for a good-sized pullback, but are probably going to be ok. Predicted PPIP would fail, and it has. See post on that and the logic.

I hold GM and UNG right now. GM is a flat-out contrarian play assuming Washington will not let it fail outright. That said it may face the same fate as C.

It is too early for X, CAT, INTC and GE (among my favorite long-term holdings)

The only thing wrong about your argument is that the market knows all this stuff too, and has already priced the market accordingly.

 

[Indiana Oracle]

Warned day before bank stocks recently turned to tighten stops. Now the broader market is nearing a point where a big correction is imminent.
Same advice as before. Not predicting how far the pull back will extend, but it is unlikely to be small.

I rode the up wave on C, BAC and AA from early March and am now out of all. C is the weakest of the big banks. In my view its future is a breakup where its parts are sold off for $1, $3 or some other similar figure. BAC along with the others have more bad news coming and are due for a good-sized pullback, but are probably going to be ok. Predicted PPIP would fail, and it has. See post on that and the logic.

I hold GM and UNG right now. GM is a flat-out contrarian play assuming Washington will not let it fail outright. That said it may face the same fate as C.

It is too early for X, CAT, INTC and GE (among my favorite long-term holdings)

The only thing wrong about your argument is that the market knows all this stuff too, and has already priced the market accordingly.

Not sure I see the connection but the market definately has not priced in a pullback.

 

[Toro]

I'm thinking a correction is coming and sold much of my exposure off yesterday. Since then, the market is up 4%.

It could keep running. There is a lot of power behind the market and not many are invested. Stocks are going up on bad news, which is a good sign. However, we are due for a pullback.

 

[Indiana Oracle]

I'm thinking a correction is coming and sold much of my exposure off yesterday. Since then, the market is up 4%.

It could keep running. There is a lot of power behind the market and not many are invested. Stocks are going up on bad news, which is a good sign. However, we are due for a pullback.

Running up on bad news is good news. I hope there is a pullback just to bring more order.

 

[Iriemon]

Warned day before bank stocks recently turned to tighten stops. Now the broader market is nearing a point where a big correction is imminent.
Same advice as before. Not predicting how far the pull back will extend, but it is unlikely to be small.

I rode the up wave on C, BAC and AA from early March and am now out of all. C is the weakest of the big banks. In my view its future is a breakup where its parts are sold off for $1, $3 or some other similar figure. BAC along with the others have more bad news coming and are due for a good-sized pullback, but are probably going to be ok. Predicted PPIP would fail, and it has. See post on that and the logic.

I hold GM and UNG right now. GM is a flat-out contrarian play assuming Washington will not let it fail outright. That said it may face the same fate as C.

It is too early for X, CAT, INTC and GE (among my favorite long-term holdings)

The only thing wrong about your argument is that the market knows all this stuff too, and has already priced the market accordingly.

Not sure I see the connection but the market definately has not priced in a pullback.

No, but it has already priced in the factors you mentioned that would cause a pullback.

Of course if further information comes out that is better or worse than what is expected, that changes the dynamic.