Looking At the Electoral Map

[JoeB131]

I fucking live in PA. Which state are you from?
What PA job losses are due to Trump? (hint: none)
Things were great until the pandemic hit.
PA didn't have the nursing home deaths that NY & NJ had.
The democrat "job killing" policies of: no fracking, no pipelines, Medicare for all, defund the police, kill the NRA, gun control, open borders, kill ICE & DHS, the Green New Deal, etc. will not play well here.

They won't play in whatever Redneck part of the state you live in with your inbred community..

Normal people see how badly Trump has failed, though.

 

[Camp]

Imagine when Trump's incompetent administration has to deal with all the evictions and floods of homeless soon to arrive.

 

[kyzr]

The rest are more likely to go red.

That tells you that Trump has to win one or two of the rust belt states to have a chance.

I'm not sure why you think that AZ is less likely to go Blue than any other Swing state.

I put them in teirs. Assume that Biden wins all the states Hillary won. No one thinks Trump is going to add to his previous wins at this point. This includes NH, MN and NV, which were kind of close last time. That puts Biden at 232.

Tier 1 Rust Belt- The ones Trump won last time because Hillary didn't pay enough attention- WI, MI and PA. If Biden wins these, he's won easily. Trump is trailing by 5 points or more in all of these. That puts Biden at 238

Tier 2- Nettables- Biden is currently leading in these states, but they are closer- AZ, NC, and FL
Arizona is good because there is a strong Senate candidate and Hispanic population has been growing.
Florida is in reach because DeSantis has fucked up Covid response so badly and a lot of oldsters aren't keen on the "Granny was going do die, let's get Applebees back open" platform of the GOP.
NC has a strong Senate race and Trump kind of pissed them off with his games with the convention.
So if Biden wins those three, it goes to 333. Let's also throw in Maine-2 in that lot, so 334.

Tier 3 - Swinging for the Fences - NE2, OH, GA, TX and IA - States where Trump's ineptitude has made him shaky and he has to spend money there when he shouldn't be. Let's assume a blowout and Trump also loses those. That would put Biden at 413.

Tier 4 Complete fucking collapse- States where Trump should win, but assume the economy is so bad by November people turn on him. - MT, AK, UT, SC, MO Again, this is unlikely, but you never know. That would be 444 EC's.

Trump is only still in the hunt, not because he is popular or because he's done a good job, but because people just don't want to admit they made a mistake. I would like it to get to Tier 4, where the country repudiates this man and everything he stands for... after which the country will have the good sense to get rid of the Electoral College.

Your post is more "wishful thinking" than "factoids"
MN and the mess democrats made in Minneapolis could swing the state to red. Defund the police? uh-huh.

Biden has a 95% probability of winning just like Hillary did until the votes were counted.
2020 will be close. We haven't seen Biden debate yet to explain and defend his policies.
Only (50) more days to the 1st debate, don't get hives worrying about it....

 

[kyzr]

I fucking live in PA. Which state are you from?
What PA job losses are due to Trump? (hint: none)
Things were great until the pandemic hit.
PA didn't have the nursing home deaths that NY & NJ had.
The democrat "job killing" policies of: no fracking, no pipelines, Medicare for all, defund the police, kill the NRA, gun control, open borders, kill ICE & DHS, the Green New Deal, etc. will not play well here.

They won't play in whatever Redneck part of the state you live in with your inbred community..

Normal people see how badly Trump has failed, though.

You can't answer my questions and dispute my facts, you lose. Color PA red.
You can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.

 

[22lcidw]

Here's a nice map with all the current state polls.
It has 217 votes solidly in Biden's back pocket.
Throw in Likely States and Biden has 313 Electoral Votes!

View attachment 372431

ElectoralVote

Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls.

electoral-vote.com

And YES, the last Texas poll has Biden beating Trump by one point.
No, Texas is NOT needed for Biden to win.

I am going to laugh at near everything the Progs do if Biden is elected. Just for safety there better not be any complaints at all by most people.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

From RCP:
Biden 212
Trump 115

A futile exercise. Everything depends on variables not yet played out:

1. How Corona virus plays out in the coming months.
2. Whether Democrats begin to back off lockdowns allowing people to go back to normalization.
3. The continuing play of anarchists rioting in democrat cities.
4. Biden has yet to stand before the nation mano Y mano under the bright light.

All of this could flip overnight with just one disastrous Biden performance.

IN TRUMP'S FAVOR: If Biden hides, it looks worse and worse for him. If he debates, he definitely shoots himself in the face.

IN DEMOCRAT'S FAVOR: A bad economy, people dying (the media is sure to alert us to each and every one), rioting in the streets just makes a president look BAD with them wanting change even if not his fault, even if much actually created by and under control of the Dems.

I agree there is more to come.

However, I don't see it as futile.

What it tells me is that Trump has a much better chance than what the press is giving him.

 

[JoeB131]

Biden has a 95% probability of winning just like Hillary did until the votes were counted.
2020 will be close. We haven't seen Biden debate yet to explain and defend his policies.
Only (50) more days to the 1st debate, don't get hives worrying about it....

2020 TRump wasn't running on 40 million lost jobs and 160,000 corpses. Now he is.

 

[Preacher]

I'm wouldn't put money on Biden winning Pennsylvania for the same reasons Hillary lost there. Coal country (the western part of the state) is still going to support Trump and Biden would have to rally the base, blacks and left in the East and there are no signs of him being able to do that.

Trump has done NOTHING for coal.
He gave them "Lip Service" then abandoned them.
To vote for Trump now is to show how stupid coal miners really are.
Hillary at least wanted help get them money for re-training.
Trump is ignoring them, and they have lost more in the 4 years of Trump, than in 8 years with Obama!

I was just in Northern West Virginia and Southwestern Pennsylvania this past week. Its full blown Trump country. I saw ONE homemade Biden sign and that was it. I saw hundreds of Trump signs,bumper stickers, and even flags

 

[XponentialChaos]

Trump needs to hang on to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump has to hold onto all of the other states and he needs to pull off a miracle to hang on to these three.

Biden has a few different paths, including Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, etc. But the easiest and most likely path is just to take back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

All three of these states have typically gone blue and just barely went red in 2016. They have since all gone back decisively to blue in 2018 and continue to poll blue as well.

This is where the battle is. This is where the election is going to be won or lost.

 

[JoeB131]

You can't answer my questions and dispute my facts, you lose. Color PA red.
You can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.

PA is going blue. NObody is with the cops right now. I'm in a starbucks... all the Baristas are wearing BLM Buttons.

Here's how you guys can tell you've lost that issue. When big corporations side with BLM, you've lost.

 

[Cellblock2429]

From RCP:

Biden 212

Trump 115

Assume Trump Gets:

Ohio

Florida

Texas

North Carolina

Georgia

Biden: 212

Trump: 231

Assume Biden Gets:

Minnasota

Michigan

Pennsylvania

New Hampshire

Wisconsin

That would put Biden at 272

Biden would win:

Still out standing would be:

Nevada:

Arizona

Missiouri

ME 1

Iowa

For a total of 34 EV's.

Nevada will likely go blue......

The rest are more likely to go red.

That tells you that Trump has to win one or two of the rust belt states to have a chance.

/—-/ Fake polls. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

 

[Lesh]

I don't think Trump will lose any PA voters from 2016.
If he wins a few more percent of the minority vote in Pittsburgh & Philadelphia its over.

Then you are delusional. After all the job losses in PA, and the oldsters realizing that Trump was perfectly willing to kill them to get the economy open again, he's gonna have a hard time.

I Trump could well lose Florida as well for the same reason.
Seniors are none too happy about the “They’re old , they were gonna die anyway” thing

 

[kyzr]

You can't answer my questions and dispute my facts, you lose. Color PA red.
You can either vote with the police, or vote with the criminals.

PA is going blue. NObody is with the cops right now. I'm in a starbucks... all the Baristas are wearing BLM Buttons.

Here's how you guys can tell you've lost that issue. When big corporations side with BLM, you've lost.

That's what makes a horse race. 2020 will be the city folk vs the rest of us.
Those big corporate boards are going to be axed in short order, that's our fucking money those coxuckers are giving to rioters.
You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020. Keep dreaming.
p.s. everyone is with the police, unless you're a criminal?

 

[XponentialChaos]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

 

[pknopp]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

It became more so today. Those working will like the extra in each check and those not working will breath easier with the extra money every week.

 

[XponentialChaos]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

It became more so today. Those working will like the extra in each check and those not working will breath easier with the extra money every week.

How is it Trumpier in 2020 than it was in 2016?

 

[pknopp]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

It became more so today. Those working will like the extra in each check and those not working will breath easier with the extra money every week.

How is it Trumpier in 2020 than it was in 2016?

What if it's the same? That's all he needs. Is actions today helped that happen.

 

[XponentialChaos]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

It became more so today. Those working will like the extra in each check and those not working will breath easier with the extra money every week.

How is it Trumpier in 2020 than it was in 2016?

What if it's the same? That's all he needs. Is actions today helped that happen.

I'm not disputing that his actions today helped him. I'm asking how it's more Trumpy than it was in 2016. Based on what evidence is it more Trumpy than it was 4 years ago?

 

[pknopp]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

It became more so today. Those working will like the extra in each check and those not working will breath easier with the extra money every week.

How is it Trumpier in 2020 than it was in 2016?

What if it's the same? That's all he needs. Is actions today helped that happen.

I'm not disputing that his actions today helped him. I'm asking how it's more Trumpy than it was in 2016. Based on what evidence is it more Trumpy than it was 4 years ago?

I believe after this it will be. I can't prove that to you yet.

 

[XponentialChaos]

You said PA was going blue in 2016, and its even Trumpier in 2020.

How is Pennsylvania Trumpier in 2020?

It became more so today. Those working will like the extra in each check and those not working will breath easier with the extra money every week.

How is it Trumpier in 2020 than it was in 2016?

What if it's the same? That's all he needs. Is actions today helped that happen.

I'm not disputing that his actions today helped him. I'm asking how it's more Trumpy than it was in 2016. Based on what evidence is it more Trumpy than it was 4 years ago?

I believe after this it will be. I can't prove that to you yet.

You think Trump will take Pennsylvania?