Looking At the Electoral Map

[bluzman61]

I'm pretty sure Hillary is going to win by a landslide in 2020 after Sleepy Joe gets replaced.

Oh, no, you mentioned the Hildebeast. Yikes!

 

[bluzman61]

Here's a nice map with all the current state polls.
It has 217 votes solidly in Biden's back pocket.
Throw in Likely States and Biden has 313 Electoral Votes!

View attachment 372431

ElectoralVote

Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls.

electoral-vote.com

And YES, the last Texas poll has Biden beating Trump by one point.
No, Texas is NOT needed for Biden to win.

Dream on, you knucklehead.

 

[bluzman61]

A change in leadership during a war or a pandemic is just not something the people want to do.....the economy is coming back fast.....the left is attacking us violently from within....the polls are as sophomoric today as they were in 2016....

Exactly. Nice post.

 

[busybee01]

From RCP:

Biden 212

Trump 115

Assume Trump Gets:

Ohio

Florida

Texas

North Carolina

Georgia

Biden: 212

Trump: 231

Assume Biden Gets:

Minnasota

Michigan

Pennsylvania

New Hampshire

Wisconsin

That would put Biden at 272

Biden would win:

Still out standing would be:

Nevada:

Arizona

Missiouri

ME 1

Iowa

For a total of 34 EV's.

Nevada will likely go blue......

The rest are more likely to go red.

That tells you that Trump has to win one or two of the rust belt states to have a chance.

I have Biden at at 269 and Trump at 126. Trump has to win Michigan or Pennsylvania and pretty much run the table. Ohio, Wisconsin, Texas, Arizona, NC, Georgia and Florida as tossups.

 

[busybee01]

I'm wouldn't put money on Biden winning Pennsylvania for the same reasons Hillary lost there. Coal country (the western part of the state) is still going to support Trump and Biden would have to rally the base, blacks and left in the East and there are no signs of him being able to do that.

I would. The gender gap has turned into a chasm for Republicans. Suburban voters are fleeing the GOP. In 2016, the suburbs narrowly went for Trump. Blacks will be turning out for Biden which is not what they did for Clunton. It won't take much. Trump narrowly won Prennsylvania.

 

[busybee01]

Trump should win Minnesota assuming illegal alien lawmakers dont mess with the ballots

Trump won't win Minnesota. Minnesota is a good government state and the Trump White House is the most corrupt. The only reason that Minnesota was close in 2016 was because a lot of voters stayed home. Trump got around a 1,000 more votes than Romney.

 

[toobfreak]

From RCP:
Biden 212
Trump 115

A futile exercise. Everything depends on variables not yet played out:

1. How Corona virus plays out in the coming months.
2. Whether Democrats begin to back off lockdowns allowing people to go back to normalization.
3. The continuing play of anarchists rioting in democrat cities.
4. Biden has yet to stand before the nation mano Y mano under the bright light.

All of this could flip overnight with just one disastrous Biden performance.

IN TRUMP'S FAVOR: If Biden hides, it looks worse and worse for him. If he debates, he definitely shoots himself in the face.

IN DEMOCRAT'S FAVOR: A bad economy, people dying (the media is sure to alert us to each and every one), rioting in the streets just makes a president look BAD with them wanting change even if not his fault, even if much actually created by and under control of the Dems.

 

[JimBowie1958]

From RCP:

Biden 212

Trump 115

Assume Trump Gets:

Ohio

Florida

Texas

North Carolina

Georgia

Biden: 212

Trump: 231

Assume Biden Gets:

Minnasota

Michigan

Pennsylvania

New Hampshire

Wisconsin

That would put Biden at 272

Biden would win:

Still out standing would be:

Nevada:

Arizona

Missiouri

ME 1

Iowa

For a total of 34 EV's.

Nevada will likely go blue......

The rest are more likely to go red.

That tells you that Trump has to win one or two of the rust belt states to have a chance.

Trump is going to win at least Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

The polling is BS.

I think Trump is going to win by a landslide at Reaganesque percentages.

 

[JimBowie1958]

IN DEMOCRAT'S FAVOR: A bad economy, people dying (the media is sure to alert us to each and every one), rioting in the streets just makes a president look BAD with them wanting change even if not his fault, even if much actually created by and under control of the Dems.

All that will Okey Dokie by November dude.

Dont fret.

 

[toobfreak]

IN DEMOCRAT'S FAVOR: A bad economy, people dying (the media is sure to alert us to each and every one), rioting in the streets just makes a president look BAD with them wanting change even if not his fault, even if much actually created by and under control of the Dems.

All that will Okey Dokie by November dude.

Dont fret.

I always fret Jim. Never underestimate your opponent.

Trump had this election SEWN UP, in the bag, then an INCREDIBLE THING HAPPENED:

1. A world's worst pandemic happened though not as bad as some past flus, where 99.9% of the people survived yet was treated like the end of the world, fear everywhere, and democrats seized gestapo control. +1 Democrats.
2. The economy was completely shut down, must do it AT ANY COST, just to save 1 in 1,000 people, who once saved, will be destroyed by the shutdowns along with the rest of us anyway. +2 Democrats.
3. The nation went into total anarchy and riot over some two-bit hood who died resisting arrest because he was hopped up on drugs, and the Democrats totally pulled away and supported it, making it WORSE. +3 Democrats.

None of this was actually Trump's fault or his doing that he had much if any control over, yet it all makes him look bad. Intelligent people like you will see past this but the Democrats base their entire party on stupid people and feelings and emotion, and all those people know is that they are hurting bad under Trump, people are sick, they can't live their lives, business is collapsing, jobs are nowhere, and there is bad news and mayhem on the TV every night.

Democrats know just how to play on the stupidity THEY CREATE to parley that into a political victory.

BASED ON THE LAST FOUR YEARS I FEEL CERTAIN that Democrats in politics and government had a definite hand in bringing ALL of these crises about with the specific intent of unseating Trump from a 2nd term AT ANY COST, finding the nation and public EXPENDABLE.

THIS IS WHO YOU ARE DEALING WITH. Evil.

 

[JimBowie1958]

BASED ON THE LAST FOUR YEARS I FEEL CERTAIN that Democrats in politics and government had a definite hand in bringing ALL of these crises about with the specific intent of unseating Trump from a 2nd term AT ANY COST, finding the nation and public EXPENDABLE.
THIS IS WHO YOU ARE DEALING WITH. Evil.

I totally agree, but also dont forget your history.





Life is good.

 

[toobfreak]

I totally agree, but also dont forget your history.

Yes, I hear you, I agree, but this is now, four years later, and the nation has been hit by an asteroid which the media is laying at Trump's feet.





To Trump's credit, he DOES have this ONE secret weapon in his favor:

 

[pknopp]

I'm wouldn't put money on Biden winning Pennsylvania for the same reasons Hillary lost there. Coal country (the western part of the state) is still going to support Trump and Biden would have to rally the base, blacks and left in the East and there are no signs of him being able to do that.

Trump has done NOTHING for coal.
He gave them "Lip Service" then abandoned them.
To vote for Trump now is to show how stupid coal miners really are.
Hillary at least wanted help get them money for re-training.
Trump is ignoring them, and they have lost more in the 4 years of Trump, than in 8 years with Obama!

Obama gave lip service to the blacks and did nothing. They voted for him a second time.

Which is understandable. It was quite a breakthrough even if Obama was a fraud.

 

[kyzr]

I'm wouldn't put money on Biden winning Pennsylvania for the same reasons Hillary lost there. Coal country (the western part of the state) is still going to support Trump and Biden would have to rally the base, blacks and left in the East and there are no signs of him being able to do that.

Trump has done NOTHING for coal.
He gave them "Lip Service" then abandoned them.
To vote for Trump now is to show how stupid coal miners really are.
Hillary at least wanted help get them money for re-training.
Trump is ignoring them, and they have lost more in the 4 years of Trump, than in 8 years with Obama!

Coal is not a big factor in PA today, but "fracking" and Marcellus shale gas is.
Biden's energy policies may mean Trump keeps PA.
Also the democrat's "defund the police" won't play well either.
The state may go to whoever flips more voters in the Pittsburgh & Philadelphia areas, because between them is Trump country.

 

[kyzr]

I'm wouldn't put money on Biden winning Pennsylvania for the same reasons Hillary lost there. Coal country (the western part of the state) is still going to support Trump and Biden would have to rally the base, blacks and left in the East and there are no signs of him being able to do that.

Trump has done NOTHING for coal.
He gave them "Lip Service" then abandoned them.
To vote for Trump now is to show how stupid coal miners really are.
Hillary at least wanted help get them money for re-training.
Trump is ignoring them, and they have lost more in the 4 years of Trump, than in 8 years with Obama!

He really hasn't. They are still going to support him.

I don't think Trump will lose any PA voters from 2016.
If he wins a few more percent of the minority vote in Pittsburgh & Philadelphia its over.

 

[pknopp]

I'm wouldn't put money on Biden winning Pennsylvania for the same reasons Hillary lost there. Coal country (the western part of the state) is still going to support Trump and Biden would have to rally the base, blacks and left in the East and there are no signs of him being able to do that.

Trump has done NOTHING for coal.
He gave them "Lip Service" then abandoned them.
To vote for Trump now is to show how stupid coal miners really are.
Hillary at least wanted help get them money for re-training.
Trump is ignoring them, and they have lost more in the 4 years of Trump, than in 8 years with Obama!

He really hasn't. They are still going to support him.

I don't think Trump will lose any PA voters from 2016.
If he wins a few more percent of the minority vote in Pittsburgh & Philadelphia its over.

He isn't going to win more minority vote. He doesn't have to. Biden has to convince them to come out for him and he can't do that being hid away.

 

[JoeB131]

The rest are more likely to go red.

That tells you that Trump has to win one or two of the rust belt states to have a chance.

I'm not sure why you think that AZ is less likely to go Blue than any other Swing state.

I put them in teirs. Assume that Biden wins all the states Hillary won. No one thinks Trump is going to add to his previous wins at this point. This includes NH, MN and NV, which were kind of close last time. That puts Biden at 232.

Tier 1 Rust Belt- The ones Trump won last time because Hillary didn't pay enough attention- WI, MI and PA. If Biden wins these, he's won easily. Trump is trailing by 5 points or more in all of these. That puts Biden at 238

Tier 2- Nettables- Biden is currently leading in these states, but they are closer- AZ, NC, and FL
Arizona is good because there is a strong Senate candidate and Hispanic population has been growing.
Florida is in reach because DeSantis has fucked up Covid response so badly and a lot of oldsters aren't keen on the "Granny was going do die, let's get Applebees back open" platform of the GOP.
NC has a strong Senate race and Trump kind of pissed them off with his games with the convention.
So if Biden wins those three, it goes to 333. Let's also throw in Maine-2 in that lot, so 334.

Tier 3 - Swinging for the Fences - NE2, OH, GA, TX and IA - States where Trump's ineptitude has made him shaky and he has to spend money there when he shouldn't be. Let's assume a blowout and Trump also loses those. That would put Biden at 413.

Tier 4 Complete fucking collapse- States where Trump should win, but assume the economy is so bad by November people turn on him. - MT, AK, UT, SC, MO Again, this is unlikely, but you never know. That would be 444 EC's.

Trump is only still in the hunt, not because he is popular or because he's done a good job, but because people just don't want to admit they made a mistake. I would like it to get to Tier 4, where the country repudiates this man and everything he stands for... after which the country will have the good sense to get rid of the Electoral College.

 

[JoeB131]

I don't think Trump will lose any PA voters from 2016.
If he wins a few more percent of the minority vote in Pittsburgh & Philadelphia its over.

Then you are delusional. After all the job losses in PA, and the oldsters realizing that Trump was perfectly willing to kill them to get the economy open again, he's gonna have a hard time.

 

[JoeB131]

All that will Okey Dokie by November dude.

Dont fret.

You're delusional, buddy. A second wave of Covid is already taking down the economy, 58% of people who lost their jobs in this thing are still unemployed, and now the money they were getting from unemployment is going away...

The economy is going right over a cliff.

 

[kyzr]

I don't think Trump will lose any PA voters from 2016.
If he wins a few more percent of the minority vote in Pittsburgh & Philadelphia its over.

Then you are delusional. After all the job losses in PA, and the oldsters realizing that Trump was perfectly willing to kill them to get the economy open again, he's gonna have a hard time.

I fucking live in PA. Which state are you from?
What PA job losses are due to Trump? (hint: none)
Things were great until the pandemic hit.
PA didn't have the nursing home deaths that NY & NJ had.
The democrat "job killing" policies of: no fracking, no pipelines, Medicare for all, defund the police, kill the NRA, gun control, open borders, kill ICE & DHS, the Green New Deal, etc. will not play well here.