Lessons of History and Trying To Avoid the Same Mistakes

[Sixties Fan]

https://twitter.com/MarkJacob16

With all the arguments over whether MAGA Republicans are fascists, I reread William Shirer’s “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” to see how much the rise of Hitler and the rise of MAGA smell similar. Conclusion: They do. This thread lists 10 ways. Please take a look.

1. A big lie about treachery is used to foment resentment. Nazis: We didn’t really lose World War I. It was a “stab in the back” by Jews and other "November criminals." MAGA: We didn’t really lose the 2020 election. It was a “steal” by politicians and Blacks in big cities.




2. There’s an obsession with purity of the culture. Nazis: “Racial mixture” was a threat to Aryan culture, Hitler wrote. MAGA: “Great replacement theory” says immigrants threaten white culture.



3. Chaos is something to be exploited, not addressed. Nazis: Economic distress is a great political opportunity. MAGA: Economic distress is a great political opportunity.



4. The super-rich bankroll the right-wing seizure of power. Nazis: Thanks to I.G. Farben, Deutsche Bank, Thyssen, Krupp, etc. MAGA: Thanks to the Mercers, Uihleins, DeVos, Thiel, etc.



5. Some people think the fascist threat is overblown. Nazis: While Hitler posed a major threat, some said he "ceased to be a political danger.” (2 weeks later, he was chancellor.) MAGA: While Trump poses a major threat, many people think it’s “just politics,” no worries.


6. There’s a cult of personality. Nazis: The German army made a pledge of loyalty to Hitler personally. MAGA: Trump’s supporters bill him as “the most moral president” in U.S. history.



7. Christianity is used to legitimize the movement. Nazis: “The party stands for positive Christianity.” MAGA: Trump is described as the “Chosen One” protecting American Christianity.





8. Books are the enemy. Nazis: Any book that “acts subversively on our future” must be burned. MAGA: “I think we should throw those books in a fire,” says a Virginia school board member.




9. An independent news media is the enemy. Nazis: Any newspaper that “offends the honor and dignity of Germany” must be banned. MAGA: The press is the “enemy of the people.”



10. Educators are pressured to be politically compliant. Nazis: Teachers took an oath to “be loyal and obedient to Adolf Hitler.” MAGA: Florida’s DeSantis accuses teachers of “indoctrination” and pressures them to avoid references to America’s racist history and LGBTQ people.



I'm not saying that MAGA will end up as horrifically as Nazism. I am saying that America 2022 feels too much like Germany 1932, and I don't want to take the risk of watching MAGA cultism play out. We have to stop it now.



Why did Twitter put a “sensitive” warning on this thread? Who knows? My only theory is that it has a “hateful symbol”—a swastika on the cover of Shirer’s book about Nazism.

 

[SeaMajor7]

P R O J E C T I O N

 

[fncceo]

Score on the Godwin Scale = 100 --- well done!

 

[maybelooking]

I just wish the end result would be the same. Treat communist POS liberals the same way Hitler treated the Jews.

 

[Auld Phart]

posting this conspiracy theory again?

will you never learn?

 

[surada]

I just wish the end result would be the same. Treat communist POS liberals the same way Hitler treated the Jews.

Hitler purged communists, socialists, Jews and Democrats.

 

[JWBooth]

If this chickenshit is all y’all have got then it’s no wonder that you’ll disappear into a cloud of dust as the world passes by, being ridiculed every moment as it happens.

 

[22lcidw]

Hitler purged communists, socialists, Jews and Democrats.

This nation is suffering. Figure it out. And then Hitler comes from the same stock.

 

[surada]

This nation is suffering. Figure it out. And then Hitler comes from the same stock.

What stock does Hitler come from?

 

[Sixties Fan]

 

[JWBooth]

The op, like many others here, skipped TDS and went full-bore TIP. TIP being Trump induced psychosis.

 

[Sixties Fan]

The op, like many others here, skipped TDS and went full-bore TIP. TIP being Trump induced psychosis.

Well, all you have to do is start your own thread on TDS.
Nobody seems to care to read, or think, about what Mark posted. Only to post nothings like you just did.

 

[Care4all]

I just wish the end result would be the same. Treat communist POS liberals the same way Hitler treated the Jews.

WOW!

you are a SICKO!

 

[Care4all]

Yep, the false claims of being stolen, were PREMEDITATED..... by Trump and his minions, to deceive his loyal followers....in to becoming criminals, just like them.

 

[JWBooth]

I just wish the end result would be the same. Treat communist POS liberals the same way Hitler treated the Jews.

That’s a bit much, and would result in greatly undeserved sympathetic martyrdom. Ridicule and disdain are good enough and quite apropos.

 

[Sixties Fan]

The Panel Study of the MAGA Movement (PSMM) is a survey designed to assess the attitudes and behavior of the people who consider themselves part of the “Make America Great Again” movement, popularized by the Trump campaign in 2016. Understanding them is paramount. For as the base to which former President Trump played (and plays), the MAGA movement ultimately motivated his challenges to American democracy. For example, exhorted by then-President Trump, many in the MAGA movement participated in the Capitol riot, an effort to stifle the peaceful transfer of power, a staple of democracy. As the principal source of perhaps the most divisive period in American history, we thought it wise to conduct a systematic, thorough investigation of the movement. As such, the PSMM permits us to distinguish between movement supporters and activists, among other things. Ultimately, ours is a study that gauges the opinions and behavior of MAGA supporters before and, more importantly, after the events of January 6, 2021. Collected in late December, data from Wave 1 of our survey interrogates respondents on a range of issues, including attitudes toward: BLM, protests in general, Covid-19 attitudes, beliefs about the 2020 election outcomes, political mobilization, racism, sexism, and nativism, among other things. We followed up Wave 1 roughly three weeks later, re-interviewing the same respondents, in the aftermath of the Capitol Riots. In Wave 2, we repeated many of the same items from Wav 1, as a means of assessing post-riot opinion change. However, we also included an extensive battery of questions on democracy, and attitudes toward the riot, as well as a few experiments, ones that manipulated alternative explanations of the riot. As the results make clear, the MAGA movement is a clear and present danger to American democracy. Details on data collection and sampling methods are provided here.

We assembled this preview of our findings for the benefit of the public. As such, the findings presented here are relatively simple. We reserve more sophisticated analysis for the appropriate academic outlets. With the exception of our findings as they relate to the Capitol Riots, the results presented below belong to the first wave of data collection. For more detailed analysis please refer to the site menu. (By way of caveat, there is no way to know whether or not our survey is representative of the MAGA movement. It may very well be true that some number of MAGA types don’t trust academics, and declined to take the survey.) The demographic composition of the MAGA movement is overwhelmingly white, male, Christian, retired, and over 65 years of age. They’re attracted to the following groups, ones that include gun rights, charities, pro police, anti-lockdown, pro-life, and “stop the steal.” They’re extremely politically active, all in support of the Republican Party. However, only roughly 60 percent are solid Republicans, the rest either “lean” Republican or Independent. The MAGA movement overwhelmingly believes Trump’s election fraud claims, would have supported him for a “third term”(had it been an option), and don’t believe that voting should be made easier. They’re also of the opinion, to a large degree, that Covid-related restrictions should be eased, that Americans are overreacting to the pandemic, and that Trump told the truth about the threat to American public health posed by the pandemic. Further, responses to our survey suggests that MAGA is populated with a good number of racist, sexists, and nativists. Finally, on the Capitol Riots, the vast majority of MAGA supporters blame Antifa for the riots, not Trump (he bears almost no responsibility, according to them); only 3 percent of them think he should be impeached, versus the 97 percent who think he deserves a walk. These findings are but the tip of the proverbial iceberg. We have much more to share. For us, the implications are clear: our country is in grave danger since one of the two major parties is essentially captured by the MAGA movement. We invite you to draw your own conclusions from these preliminary findings. (Be advised that we will continue to update the site as we complete more analysis, especially on the second wave where we will document attitudes from before and after the riot.)

Panel Study of the MAGA Movement

 

[Sixties Fan]

Who are MAGA supporters, and what do they believe in? In these figures, we elaborate on these questions. As the results make clear, they’re not a terribly diverse group: at least 60 percent of them are White, Christian and male. Further, around half are retired, over 65 years of age, and earn at least $50K per year. Finally, roughly 30 percent have at least a college degree. That MAGA supporters are older, Christian, men, more than half of whom are retired, comports with the now-familiar images of the Capitol riots. What may seem a bit surprising is that about half are middle-class by income, and almost 1/3 are middle-class by educational criteria. Apparently, these same images of the riot participants, ones portraying a mainly working-class crowd, were misleading.

Where do MAGA supporters live? This heat map shows the geographic locations of the MAGA supporters who participated in our survey. Each dot in the map corresponds with one survey respondent. Dark clusters of dots indicate that multiple respondents resided in the same geographic area. A few things stand out in this map. The first is that the MAGA movement has a presence in every state in the continental U.S. (with a few respondents residing in Alaska and Hawaii, not shown on this map). This much is expected, as we recruited survey respondents from all 50 states, proportional to state population. We discuss this more on our methods summary page. Second, MAGA presence corresponds with population density. As expected, less populous states in the Mountain West and Great Plains regions showed less activity. More populous states such as California, Texas, Florida, and other states in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region registered more MAGA activity. Third, MAGA presence was not constrained to rural areas, as contemporary rhetoric about the urban-rural divide might lead us to expect. In most states, MAGA respondents were clustered around major cities like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas.

The MAGA movement, it seems, is not a isolated phenomenon. Movement sympathizers make up a healthy portion of the Republican electorate, and they are well-represented throughout the country.

Turning to group affinities, it’s clear that conservative groups are popular among MAGA supporters. Given the demography of the group, this should come as no great shock. For instance, roughly 85 percent of MAGA supporters are members of gun-rights groups, though not necessarily gun owners. Approximately 60 percent of them are members of charities and pro-police groups, respectively. In addition, roughly 50 percent of MAGA supporters belong to anti-lockdown and pro-life groups, respectively. Here’s where matters take an interesting turn. It seems like the “Stop the Steal” campaign, and militia groups, are less popular among the MAGA movement than the popular press suggests. Though not insignificant, only 38 percent of the MAGA movement identifies with the “Stop the Steal” campaign. Likewise, only roughly 23 percent of the insurgent movement identifies with militia movements of any kind.

Demographics & Group Affinities – Panel Study of the MAGA Movement

 

[JWBooth]

The Panel Study of the MAGA Movement
<gibberish snipped>

 

[Sixties Fan]

If it seems that MAGA movement supporters are committed to the Republican Party, it’s because they are. Dating back to the 2016 presidential election, they’re firmly committed to the party, regardless of the election cycle. In Trump’s initial run for office in 2016, roughly 90 percent of MAGA supporters voted for him. Ever since then, including the 2018 midterm, MAGA supported the GOP at a 100-percent clip. Even though Trump lost in 2020, the commitment from MAGA suggests why he had coattails, narrowing Democrats’ advantage in the House. This aforementioned commitment to the GOP among MAGA supporters is easily understood in light of the partisan distribution: approximately 90 percent of MAGA supporters are self-identifying Republicans, or lean GOP. If, however, we didn’t press them, the “leaners” who first identified as Independent, comprise a total of 27 percent of the sample. Yet, both they, and the “pure” self-identified Independents who are MAGA movement members, overwhelmingly vote GOP.

Among other things, the PSMM includes a battery of questions on political activism beyond voting. Assessing political activism is important because it suggests the level of commitment to political engagement. We sought to explore the MAGA movement’s commitment to politics by asking a range of questions, from signing a petition to attending a rally. As the results indicate, the MAGA movement is energized. Consider that no less than 50 percent of the MAGA insurgency have signed a petition, contacted a representative, participated in a boycott, or donated funds to a campaign. Beyond that, roughly 45 percent attended a political meeting, 35 percent have attended a rally, and 30 percent have volunteered for a campaign. By any metric, this group appears committed to the political process. (Since national data for the 2020 election cycle is not yet available, we can’t yet compare these numbers to those of the general public.)

Turning to perceptions of the 2020 election cycle, we find that the MAGA movement refuses to accept the election results. We assess this in a number of ways, from survey questions that invoke fraud claims made by Trump, to perceptions of the congressional elections. When we asked our respondents about whether or not they agreed with Trump’s fraud claims, 98 percent believed them valid. We then asked, absent Trump’s claim, whether or not they trusted the election results. Again, 98 percent of respondents distrust the results. However, when we shift to perceptions of the congressional elections, the attitudes move a bit. Instead of 98 percent who take issue with the election outcome at the presidential level, distrust of the down-ballot (congressional) results decline by roughly 20 percentage points to 78 percent. The disparity between our findings on the first two questions, and the last one, suggests that movement members are less upset with gains made in the House versus losing (illegitimately) the presidency. We were also curious about other issues surrounding the 2020 election cycle: attitudes surrounding making it easier for people to vote, and if they’d support Trump for a third term. Recall that, at the time the first wave was in the field, the outcome of the election remained in doubt. In response to the first question, roughly 90 percent of our respondents disagreed with making it easier for people to vote. Replying to the second, it’s clear that, were it possible, roughly 70 percent would’ve supported Trump for a third term.

MAGA and Politics – Panel Study of the MAGA Movement

 

[Sixties Fan]

The global pandemic hit the US hard. Given the wide-spread belief that Trump badly mishandled the crisis, we thought it wise to explore the movement’s attitudes toward Covid-19. The Wave 1 of the PSMM includes an extensive battery of questions in which we gauge beliefs about Covid-19. However, for the sake of brevity, we present only a handful here. For our present purposes, we examine four items: (1) whether or not state and local governments should ease up on Covid-related restrictions; (2) whether or not Trump was honest about seriousness of the pandemic; (3) whether or not Covid-19 is a bioweapon manufactured by China; and (4) the prospect that society is overreacting to the pandemic. Results associated with the first three questions are unequivocal: at least 90 percent of respondents believe that authorities should relax restrictions, believe Trump was honest about the extent to which Covid-19 would affect the country, and agree that Covid-19 is a bioweapon, manufactured by China. The sole item on which it appears there is relative doubt is whether or not people are overreacting. But even here, roughly 70 percent of the MAGA movement agrees.

If the responses to the pandemic appear at variance with conventional wisdom on public health and common sense, it’s because they’re a product of a broader paranoid belief system. As one of us has written elsewhere, reactionary movements have a hard time coming to grips with social and cultural change. They fear that it threatens their way of life. As such, to them, most everything seems a threat, a disposition that encourages conspiratorial thinking. To examine this proposition among our respondents in the MAGA movement, we developed a number of questions designed to gauge predispositions to conspiratorial thinking (full question text is available on request): (1) Real Americans are losing [their] freedoms; (2) Our lives are controlled by secret plots; (3) The American way of life is disappearing; (4) Unknown actors make the big decisions; and (5) Forces are changing our society for the worse. On all save one, at least 90 percent of the MAGA movement agree with the sentiments described in these questions. The only one that fails to rise to 90 percent agreement is the first questions, “Real Americans are losing [their] freedoms.” However, even here, roughly 88 percent of respondents agree.

The Pandemic and Paranoia – Panel Study of the MAGA Movement