RhodyPatriot
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Nate Silver - TODAY - now has Trump at 315 electoral votes.
Harris / Trump Election Polls
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RhodyPatriot
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SassyIrishLass
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The more times they try to kill him the better the odds for him
HikerGuy83
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As of the morning of 9/16
The RCP map with no toss ups has:
Harris ==> 276
Trump ==> 262
The RCP map with no toss ups has:
Harris ==> 276
Trump ==> 262
RhodyPatriot
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Yep.
A much lower lead than either Hillary or Biden had at this juncture in their respective contests.
Which means even the junk polls like ABC aren't giving her as good a prospect.
Which is why yesterday happened.
HikerGuy83
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What happened yesterday ?
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MagicMike
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Vice President Kamala Harris leapt to a six-point lead over former President Trump in the wake of last week's presidential debate, according to a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday.
Why it matters: Most polls before last Tuesday's debate that saw Harris rattle Trump on a range of topics had the pair locked in a virtual dead heat.
bendog
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Silver had Biden winning Fla and NC four years ago, sooooo
Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
And I'm not really big on polls this early, besides looking for trends, and Harris has "big mo" right now ..... But Silver has Harris up by three today.
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
www.natesilver.net
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Pellinore
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My best assessment of the polling industry is that it was all built on models and predictions and number-crunching and paradigms that Trump didn't fit into. I don't think the machine was built for traditional candidancies that followed conventions that he didn't do. For example, his followers saw the polls as part of the "swamp" and so avoided them or straight-up lied, which was brilliant if it was planned. Either way, in 2016 and 2020 they did a terrible job at predicting how he'd do; he finished several points ahead of predictions in just about every state. They (with Nate Silver front and center) didn't know what to do with him.
Now, of course, it's a different race. Harris doesn't have the flawed instincts of Clinton or the age problems of Biden or the baggage of either one, but she obviously had a late start. We all, including the pollsters, have had eight years to get used to Trump's ways, so judging whether the polling industry is worth reading, you have to ask yourself: How much do you trust their ability to correct their methods? Is it even possible?
My track coach in high school used to tell us to not run to the finish line, but through it, because you can never tell how close the other guy is, and turning your head will slow you down. That's probably the best advice for both campaigns; keep running full speed, as if the other guy is right there. Forget the polls.
Now, of course, it's a different race. Harris doesn't have the flawed instincts of Clinton or the age problems of Biden or the baggage of either one, but she obviously had a late start. We all, including the pollsters, have had eight years to get used to Trump's ways, so judging whether the polling industry is worth reading, you have to ask yourself: How much do you trust their ability to correct their methods? Is it even possible?
My track coach in high school used to tell us to not run to the finish line, but through it, because you can never tell how close the other guy is, and turning your head will slow you down. That's probably the best advice for both campaigns; keep running full speed, as if the other guy is right there. Forget the polls.
otto105
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It’s not 2016 anymore fuckupHILLARY! 2016!!! 98 % CHANGE OF WINNING!! ALL THE POLLS LIE!
WASH RINSE REPEAT
2018 - All the polls point to Republicans getting their asses kicked in the midterms. They lose 41 House seats, seven governorships, and a bunch of state legislative majorities just like the polls said.
BUT BUT BUT!!
HILLARY! 2016!!! 98 % CHANGE OF WINNING!! ALL THE POLLS LIE!
WASH RINSE REPEAT
2020 - All the polls point to Donald Trump getting clobbered in his reelection bid. Trump loses, Biden wins, just as the polls said
BUT BUT BUT!!
HILLARY! 2016!!! 98 % CHANGE OF WINNING!! ALL THE POLLS LIE!
WASH RINSE REPEAT
2022 - SCOTUS rules in favor in Dobbs. Republican lead in the polls crashes in the proceeding months. Trump's swing state nominees are trailing in all polls. Red wave becomes red trickle. Almost all of Trump's swing state endorsements lose.
All like the polls said would happen.
BUT BUT BUT!!
HILLARY! 2016!!! 98 % CHANGE OF WINNING!! ALL THE POLLS LIE!
WASH RINSE REPEAT
2024 - Biden drops out of the race. Harris has instant momentum. Closes all the polls with the Trump and now leads in most. Democrat voter enthusiasm is the highest it's been since Obama
BUT BUT BUT!!
HILLARY! 2016!!! 98 % CHANGE OF WINNING!! ALL THE POLLS LIE!
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!
SweetSue92
Diamond Member
Trump leads Harris within margin of error in tight Georgia race.
The poll shows approximately 46.9% of voters currently say they would vote for Trump, compared to 44.4% of voters who say they would cast their vote for Harris.
Trump leads Harris within margin of error in tight Georgia race, poll finds
Former President Donald Trump has a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Georgia voters in the 2024 election but remains within the margin of error, according to a poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
www.foxnews.com
Trump lost Georgia in 2020.
Hurricanelover
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SassyIrishLass
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You’re losing
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