The title of this thread isn't correct.
Kansas and gop haven't beaten anything.
What they are doing is making the situation worse.
Kansas now has over 1 thousand verified cases of the virus with nearly 40 dead.
Now you people want to bring hundreds of people together in a small space.
That's not very smart.
The deaths will be more blood on the hands of the republicans who voted to overturn the governor's order. Which shows they have no respect for life. They have no problem with showing they are the party of death.
Wrong....this virus is no deadlier than the regular flu.....as the updated models are showing.....
www.dailywire.com
Alex Berenson, former New York Times reporter who worked for “the paper of record” from 1999 to 2010, has been doing his own analysis of the ever-changing models and offered some thoughts in a Fox News interview.
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Berenson recently focused his attention on the IMHE model.
“Aside from New York, nationally there’s been no health system crisis. In fact, to be truly correct, there has been a health system crisis, but the crisis is that the hospitals are empty,” he said on Fox. “This is true in Florida where the lockdown was late, this is true in southern California where the lockdown was early, it’s true in Oklahoma where there is no statewide lockdown. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation between the lockdown and whether or not the epidemic has spread wide and fast.”
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But Berenson said the precipitous drop in cases has occurred before lockdowns would have had a chance to have an impact, saying it would take several weeks for social distancing measures to take effect.
And he said the mainstream media are, in part, to blame.
“Look, I get why people were so scared three or four weeks ago. I was too. But now – for the media to ignore the real demographics and scare people with outlier cases – to ignore the mostly empty hospitals all over the country – to pretend that the models weren’t wrong … and to refuse to ask really hard questions about what that means about them and the efficacy or lack thereof of the lockdowns – to refuse to ask for hard metrics we will use to reopen the country … it doesn’t feel like panic is driving this anymore. It feels like people just won’t admit what’s happening,” he wrote on Twitter.
Berenson also pointed out that COVID-19 deaths are on pace to come in even with the deaths attributed to influenza in 2017.
“Nobody says COVID-19 is not real, that it can’t tax hospitals or kill people, esp. if they are over 75 or have comorbidities. But right now the best CURRENT projection is for 61,000 US deaths. That was the 2017 flu season. Why have we shut the country?” he wrote.
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The Wuhan virus appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S. The much-maligned University of Washington IHME model says that U.S. deaths should have peaked today, and are expected to declin…
www.powerlineblog.com
Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.
If you read the parameters from the model you are quoting, the new models include the effects of social distancing, stay-at-home orders, and the closure of non-essential businesses in cities in China, Italy and Spain where they were implemented well before anything in the United States, then modeled the effects of social restrictions based on the duration of time after those restrictions started being implemented in the US. The models from a few weeks ago did not include as much data because most of those cities hadn't seen a peak yet, and thus had a higher projected death rate in the US, and were based upon assumptions of restrictions that had not yet been implemented in the US.
Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and subnational locations.
www.healthdata.org
IOW, had we not implemented restrictions, the death toll would have been higher than is being projected today. Had the restrictions been implemented sooner in the US, the projected deaths would be lower.
The forecasts of 2.2 million deaths if nothing happened was probably too high. On one of the cruise ships, where there was no social distancing at all, and one can assume every single person was exposed, the infection rate was 19% and the mortality rate was 1%. But even that mortality rate is probably too high as the average age on the cruise ship skews higher than the general population. So the mortality rate is probably between 0.5% and 1%. Assuming that every single person in the US is exposed to the virus, the number of Americans who would die would be between 313,500 and 627,000. Since that's unrealistic, if only half of Americans are exposed to it, then the number of Americans who would die would be between 156,750 and 313,500. That's a realistic number before social distancing, stay-at-home orders, banning mass gatherings, and shutting down non-essential businesses. Start doing all those, and the number of deaths will be much lower.
That link from the Powerline blog you posted was ridiculous BTW. I should be surprised that attorneys don't understand simple math. But when it comes to tribal partisan politics, I guess I shouldn't be.
Math is just too hard for some people.
nymag.com
