June 29th Stock Market Update and Outlook

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Thanks for the not suportes by faces debasr

Thanks for the not-suported-by-facts debásement. Then again, I understand that ignorant and biased people do that by nature!

Your statements are simply stale and incorrect.

 

[Luckyone]

Your statements are simply stale and incorrect.

which you have been unable to prove

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

which you have been unable to prove

I don't have to, because they have been proved so. I just have to note the burden of proof has failed.

 

[Luckyone]

I don't have to, because they have been proved so. I just have to note the burden of proof has failed.

I don't have to because they have been proved?

Are you on a debate board or on a soap box? Because here, if you make a statement you need to prove it to the other debater as that is what this board is all about.

You made the statement, and YOU have to prove it!

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

I don't have to because they have been proved?

Are you on a debate board or on a soap box? Because here, if you make a statement you need to prove it to the other debater as that is what this board is all about.

You made the statement, and YOU have to prove it!

I don't have to cover already proved material by restating the sources. You are merely delaying the inevitable: you lost.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

DOW Friday Closing Price - 43819
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6173
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 22534
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2171

The SPX and the NASDAQ made new all-time highs this week after China signed a tariff deal with the U.S., tension between Israel and Iran eased, dovish Fedspeak, and some corporate earnings coming in higher than expected. On the negative side "but ignored by the traders", GDP was revised downward, showing that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 5% (instead of the previous estimate at 2%), inflation moved slightly higher (increased by .1%), personal income came in lower than expected (first decrease since 2021), and Canada cancelling trade/tariff talks with the U.S.

The negative reports came in later in the week and with the NASDAQ having made a new all-time intraweek and daily closing on Wednesday and the AI industry getting additional positive news, momentum was on the side of the bulls and the negatives were ignored. All indexes closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 43966, SPX at 6187, NASDAQ at 22603, and RUT at 2189) are expected to be seen this week.

This week, two of the most important reports of the month come out, with the ISM Index report coming out on Tuesday (expected to be 48.3%) and the Jobs report on Friday (expected to be 127k). Both of these reports are expected to show that Manufacturing remains in a contraction scenario (under 50%) and that Jobs remain healthy but at a more moderate pace than May. Lower than expected reports would bring in selling interest.

As of right now, the bulls are in control, but the fundamentals do not "clearly" support higher prices. In looking at the SPX fundamental projections at the beginning of the year were for the index to go as high as 7100 with the median estimate being 6400, Now analysts are saying 6600 is the highest it could go to but now many saying that 5200 could be seen with 6000 being the median estimate. With the index closing at 6173 on Friday, it is evident there is more downside that upside likely to be seen the rest of the year.

As far as what the charts say, it is also evident that neither the SPX nor the NASDAQ can be used right now to predict what levels can be reached where automatic selling is seen, given that there are no resistance levels above (new all-time highs). As such, it is the DOW that is the important index as far as resistance levels above. On an intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 44033 and then stronger at 44486. On a daily closing basis, the 44303 is a short-term indicative resistance, which if broken would signal higher prices with new all-time highs being probable. With the index closing at 43819 on Friday, another 484 point gain could be seen this week.

As far as the SPX and the NASDAQ are concerned, the previous all-time highs are what is important. In the SPX the previous all-time high daily close is at 6144 and the weekly one is at 6114. A close below both of them would be a signal that the top to the rally has been found. In the NASDAQ, those same levels are at 22175 and 22114. It is clearly evident that of both of these indexes, the latter is more indicative as this rally has been driven mainly by the Tech Industry.

As of today, there is nothing that is dependable as this market has recently rallied more on emotion, and daily news about Trump's actions, than on tangible fundamental facts. Having said that, generally and historically the summer months have been negative to the market with earnings and growth being slow. July starts on Tuesday and common sense (with all of the above considered), suggesting that the likelihood of this particular run up continuing is low. In addition, and probably as important as the economic news, there is very little more that Trump can say or do at this time, that would give the bulls new ammunition. The opposite is actually more likely.

Very nice, Lucky One.

 

[Luckyone]

I don't have to cover already proved material by restating the sources. You are merely delaying the inevitable: you lost.

You are not proving your statement. You are a fake debater.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

You are not proving your statement. You are a fake debater.

I don't have prove already validated statements.

You know that.

 

[Luckyone]

I don't have prove already validated statements.

You know that.

Yes you do, or at least point me in the direction where those validated statements are found.

That is the onus that a debater has when he is on a debate board. No way out of it unless you are a fake and a liar.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Yes you do, or at least point me in the direction where those validated statements are found.

That is the onus that a debater has when he is on a debate board. No way out of it unless you are a fake and a liar.

Then prove your assertions.

 

[Luckyone]

Then prove your assertions.

Here is my proof.

You stated:

I don't have to prove already validated statements.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Here is my proof.

You stated:

I don't have to prove already validated statements.

I don't, but you insist on it, so I insist you do with good proof.

 

[Luckyone]

I don't, but you insist on it, so I insist you do with good proof.

After you do, I will gladly follow. You first. It was you that made the statement that you didn't have to prove anything because it was already proven.

If that is correct, it also applies to my statements, doesn't it?

This is you..............clearly

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

After you do, I will gladly follow. You first. It was you that made the statement that you didn't have to prove anything because it was already proven.

If that is correct, it also applies to my statements, doesn't it?

This is you..............clearly

View attachment 1130652

Since you made the initial allegations, we will begin with you. If you can't, you will be put on my Ignore for the day.

 

[Luckyone]

Since you made the initial allegations, we will begin with you. If you can't, you will be put on my Ignore for the day.

First of all, this OP is about the stock market and what is likely to happen THIS week.

June 29th Stock Market Update and Outlook​

No allegation was made by me. It was simply a study of what the charts say.

So, I dare you to find what allegations I made that I need to prove!

This is the statement you made to my post:

go short NVDA is you think that you cannot rely on the evaluations of economists. Most (if not all) economists are saying that AI (with NVDA being the key stock among them) will lead the way.

You stated:

That is a process that will lead to undetermined products.
Not all of them will be good for us.

I asked you to prove that statement about the process that economists follow and you STATED that "not all of them will be good for us". and you said that it was a proven fact!

What is a proven fact? That the process will lead to undetermined products? What products are you talking about. Which ones could be harmful? Evaluating economic data can be harmful? Reading charts can be harmful?

 

[marvin martian]

DOW Friday Closing Price - 43819
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6173
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 22534
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2171

The SPX and the NASDAQ made new all-time highs this week after China signed a tariff deal with the U.S., tension between Israel and Iran eased, dovish Fedspeak, and some corporate earnings coming in higher than expected. On the negative side "but ignored by the traders", GDP was revised downward, showing that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 5% (instead of the previous estimate at 2%), inflation moved slightly higher (increased by .1%), personal income came in lower than expected (first decrease since 2021), and Canada cancelling trade/tariff talks with the U.S.

The negative reports came in later in the week and with the NASDAQ having made a new all-time intraweek and daily closing on Wednesday and the AI industry getting additional positive news, momentum was on the side of the bulls and the negatives were ignored. All indexes closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 43966, SPX at 6187, NASDAQ at 22603, and RUT at 2189) are expected to be seen this week.

This week, two of the most important reports of the month come out, with the ISM Index report coming out on Tuesday (expected to be 48.3%) and the Jobs report on Friday (expected to be 127k). Both of these reports are expected to show that Manufacturing remains in a contraction scenario (under 50%) and that Jobs remain healthy but at a more moderate pace than May. Lower than expected reports would bring in selling interest.

As of right now, the bulls are in control, but the fundamentals do not "clearly" support higher prices. In looking at the SPX fundamental projections at the beginning of the year were for the index to go as high as 7100 with the median estimate being 6400, Now analysts are saying 6600 is the highest it could go to but now many saying that 5200 could be seen with 6000 being the median estimate. With the index closing at 6173 on Friday, it is evident there is more downside that upside likely to be seen the rest of the year.

As far as what the charts say, it is also evident that neither the SPX nor the NASDAQ can be used right now to predict what levels can be reached where automatic selling is seen, given that there are no resistance levels above (new all-time highs). As such, it is the DOW that is the important index as far as resistance levels above. On an intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 44033 and then stronger at 44486. On a daily closing basis, the 44303 is a short-term indicative resistance, which if broken would signal higher prices with new all-time highs being probable. With the index closing at 43819 on Friday, another 484 point gain could be seen this week.

As far as the SPX and the NASDAQ are concerned, the previous all-time highs are what is important. In the SPX the previous all-time high daily close is at 6144 and the weekly one is at 6114. A close below both of them would be a signal that the top to the rally has been found. In the NASDAQ, those same levels are at 22175 and 22114. It is clearly evident that of both of these indexes, the latter is more indicative as this rally has been driven mainly by the Tech Industry.

As of today, there is nothing that is dependable as this market has recently rallied more on emotion, and daily news about Trump's actions, than on tangible fundamental facts. Having said that, generally and historically the summer months have been negative to the market with earnings and growth being slow. July starts on Tuesday and common sense (with all of the above considered), suggesting that the likelihood of this particular run up continuing is low. In addition, and probably as important as the economic news, there is very little more that Trump can say or do at this time, that would give the bulls new ammunition. The opposite is actually more likely.

I'll bet you're really sad you sold everything in 2016 after Paul Krugman told you Trump was going to cause a 10 year depression.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

First of all, this OP is about the stock market and what is likely to happen THIS week.

June 29th Stock Market Update and Outlook​

No allegation was made by me. It was simply a study of what the charts say.

So, I dare you to find what allegations I made that I need to prove!

This is the statement you made to my post:


You stated:

That is a process that will lead to undetermined products.
Not all of them will be good for us.

I asked you to prove that statement about the process that economists follow and you STATED that "not all of them will be good for us". and you said that it was a proven fact!

What is a proven fact? That the process will lead to undetermined products? What products are you talking about. Which ones could be harmful? Evaluating economic data can be harmful? Reading charts can be harmful?

On today's Ignore list.

 

[Luckyone]

On today's Ignore list.

Thank you. That is the best piece of news you could have given me.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Without looking, I know that Luckyone was thrilled he did not have to answer my question. He could not, so there we are. I will talk to him tomorrow or the day after or whenever.

 

[Luckyone]

Without looking, I know that Luckyone was thrilled he did not have to answer my question. He could not, so there we are. I will talk to him tomorrow or the day after or whenever.

Don't bother. I don't talk to people that have this disability