“Shockingly Bad” Chinese Economic Data Stuns Wall Street, Turnaround Is “Nowhere in Sight”

excalibur

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China has deep economic problems. What, tear down the empty cites and rebuild them? Build more high speed trains that are quite often little used while massively subsidized?

1. Only a Handful of Lines are Profitable - Out of China's massive >45,000-kilometer HSR network, only a select few highly trafficked corridors (such as the Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Guangzhou lines) cover their daily operating costs and debt-servicing requirements. The vast majority of lines—especially those built in less-populated western regions or smaller secondary cities—operate at a loss.​



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From the below link:

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What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier.

Goldman’s Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that “overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories.”

Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.

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China has deep economic problems. What, tear down the empty cites and rebuild them? Build more high speed trains that are quite often little used while massively subsidized?


1. Only a Handful of Lines are ProfitableOut of China's massive >45,000-kilometer HSR network, only a select few highly trafficked corridors (such as the Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Guangzhou lines) cover their daily operating costs and debt-servicing requirements. The vast majority of lines—especially those built in less-populated western regions or smaller secondary cities—operate at a loss.

***********************************************​
From the below link:​
...
What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier.
Goldman’s Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that “overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories.”
Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.
...

Peking Duck

The last time Trump defied them, the Chinese had their worst economy in 30 years. They're desperate to make deals now.
 
China has deep economic problems. What, tear down the empty cites and rebuild them? Build more high speed trains that are quite often little used while massively subsidized?


1. Only a Handful of Lines are Profitable - Out of China's massive >45,000-kilometer HSR network, only a select few highly trafficked corridors (such as the Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Guangzhou lines) cover their daily operating costs and debt-servicing requirements. The vast majority of lines—especially those built in less-populated western regions or smaller secondary cities—operate at a loss.

***********************************************​
From the below link:​
...
What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier.
Goldman’s Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that “overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories.”
Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.
...

Sounds like they have an Amtrac.
 
"China’s economy stumbled in April with consumption, industrial output and investment growth missing expectations as the fallout from the Iran war dampened momentum in the world’s second-largest economy.

"Retail sales grew 0.2% last month from a year ago, sharply missing economists’ forecast for a 2% rise and slowing from 1.7% in March, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

"That marked the weakest growth since December 2022, according to Wind data, as China started to loosen its Covid curbs."

China's economy loses steam in April as retail sales hit 40-month low
 
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