- Dec 29, 2008
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No it doesn't.
All it proves is that it didn't work for Japan.
The USA is not Japan.
In fact, even Japan of today isn't Japan of yesterday.
Economies change and thinking that one can apply the same economic solutions to different problems is just plain old DUMB.
Do YOU apply the same solutions to EVERY problem?
No?
But you imagine that every economy is a consistent thing (with simple rules for how it works) which can easily be understood year after year, don't you?
If the solution to the problem was as obvious as you think it is, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with, would we?
Come on now, Oreao, think it through logically and you'll have to admit that I'd right.
The economic system we had had morphed into something entirely different than it was even ten years ago.
The solutions that you think have to work, because you think people really understand how the economy works MIGHT work...or they MIGHT not.
Uncertainty in chaotic systems...it's what social scientist have no choice but to understand that most propellorheads simply cannot wrap their every problem has a solution oriented minds around.
Economics isn't rocket science...in fact it's far more complex than rocket science.
Get used to it.
Japan's experience provides dramatic evidence that stimulus alone won't revive the private sector economy?
Not exactly..
Japan's recent experience provided dramatic evidence that in the case of Japan of the recent past the econmic stimulus that they tried did not work in Japan as phoped.
Do you actually know anything about that stimulus?
For example, did you know that while Japan was opening up the purse strings and building something to stimulate the economy, it was also increasing taxes which have the exact opposite effect on the money supply?
I'll bet you didn't. But even if you had it wouldn't matter because apparently you think that Japan's economy and ours are similar enough that you can draw inferences from their experience to apply to ours.
That's the kind of a mistake that I am sympthetic to because I once beleived that sort of dislogical thing, too.
I no longer do
Then you have proved exactly nothing accept that you think Japan's economy and ours are the same animal.
They're not. Not remotely.
Japan economy is still rather lame, FYI. Their economy not anywhere nearly so healthy as it was two decades ago.
Great...we recapitalized our banks, too. So why can't we speak Swedish?
Bully for him. That sounds like a a plan.
Damned shame neither you nor he nor I nor anyone else will KNOW what that will do except for the most obvious things like if you give some people money they will have some money. But what they will do with it, and what effect it will have on the economy, and how those effects will play out on other people, and what they will do, and when they do what other people will do when they hear of it, and how the world will react and what the weather on that day will be and how that will effect the price of tea in china...(pant! pant! pant!)..
NOBODY KNOWS!
I concur. I think they ought to call this plan the:
"Holy Shit!!! We broke capitalism again!
Quick! let's throw taxpayers' money at it and hope the people don't rise up and kill our class like we so justly deserve." plan.
Now THAT would be a more honest description of what the heck's going on, I think.
There is no basis in history or logic for believing that anything anyone has suggested WILL lead to economy recovery.
It's a freaking leap of faith, is what I am attepting to explain to you.
There is no reason to believe that we can KNOW what it would take to have economic recovery AT ALL.
It is an economic aid bill that will ease some of the pain while the administration either fixes the financial crisis or allows us to slip deeper and deeper into recession.
I totally agree...that's what it is... a plan that they HOPE will relieve SOME pain.
A plan that may or may not fix anything or may make it worse, or may not do something so unbelievably unpresidented and unexpected that nobody could possibly have imagined what would happen.
And FWIW you can take MY statement of complete uncertainty to the bank.
If you can't specify what you think the critical differences between the US economy and the Japanese economy are with respect to the situmulus, then you haven't said anything.