How Will the State Bond Defaults affect the 2020 Election?

[william the wie]

In simple terms the following states have a 5-10% chance of being the first to default as a state prior to the 2020 election.
CA
IL, KY&WV
VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ (MD,PA & ME)

That looks like a 25-51% probability of mostly D states going into default but it really isn't. If CA goes into default it might not have any effect on 2020 or any other states. It is that much of an outlier even though it is the biggest state in population.

IL, KY&WV are also an outlier cluster that might have limited effect on the rest of the country and election.

The Washington-Boston corridor on the other hand could easily take out MD,PA & ME just by proximity even though they are in bad but not awful shape. Even a few big taxpayers leaving NJ or IL could cause a major crisis. I thought I should check to see if I'm being over-optimistic.

 

[BlackFlag]

How many times you going to start the exact same thread, hmm?

 

[Toro]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

 

[Mac1958]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

BUT I SAW IT ON THE INTERNET I TELL YOU

 

[william the wie]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

Look over the real estate market trends in the above states .

 

[kyzr]

The states can fix the problem by recomputing the exorbitant pensions that many officials have. Pensions should be limited to a maximum of 80% or so of their base salary. Tax payers should not be liable for outrageous pensions. The courts need to rethink the "CA Rule", or let the states go bankrupt.

 

[Toro]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

Look over the real estate market trends in the above states .

Doesn't matter.

All states have no problems issuing bonds.

State restructurings may happen over the next decade or two as pension obligations skyrocket, but it's not going to happen in the next few years.

 

[BlackFlag]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

Look over the real estate market trends in the above states .

Doesn't matter.

All states have no problems issuing bonds.

State restructurings may happen over the next decade or two as pension obligations skyrocket, but it's not going to happen in the next few years.

Now I’m no economist or anything, but I’ve got a couple blog posts here saying YOU’RE DEAD WRONG, COMMUNIST!

 

[william the wie]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

Look over the real estate market trends in the above states .

Doesn't matter.

All states have no problems issuing bonds.

State restructurings may happen over the next decade or two as pension obligations skyrocket, but it's not going to happen in the next few years.

OK, I see the problem, deferred maintenance reaching critical levels as is true in all of the above states is not treated as an unfunded liability by the ratings companies. CA has or will lose tax base in the low trillions due to the enhanced fire/flood damage going back to before Grey was replaced by the Governator. Similar stunts have been pulled in NY, MA & MD as well. But the ratings company assumptions about tax base shrinkage are known by and gamed by the states.

 

[jwoodie]

Dems will nationalize state debts when the time comes.

 

[Toro]

There is roughly a 0% chance of states defaulting in the next 24 months.

Look over the real estate market trends in the above states .

Doesn't matter.

All states have no problems issuing bonds.

State restructurings may happen over the next decade or two as pension obligations skyrocket, but it's not going to happen in the next few years.

OK, I see the problem, deferred maintenance reaching critical levels as is true in all of the above states is not treated as an unfunded liability by the ratings companies. CA has or will lose tax base in the low trillions due to the enhanced fire/flood damage going back to before Grey was replaced by the Governator. Similar stunts have been pulled in NY, MA & MD as well. But the ratings company assumptions about tax base shrinkage are known by and gamed by the states.

That will not happen.

 

[BlackFlag]

Dems will nationalize state debts when the time comes.

And we’ll make you kiss a dude

 

[william the wie]

You didn't notice that I used the past tense?

 

[william the wie]

There are two threads going right now about the collapsing tax base of NY and CA not created by me.
Don't Taz Me Bro for NY
Manonthestreet for CA

 

[Crepitus]

Conservitard wishful thinking based on biased rwnj "news" sources.

 

[Blackrook]

Conservitard wishful thinking based on biased rwnj "news" sources.

So which news sources do you believe?

CNN?

New York Times?

Washington Post?

Wow, yeah, no bias there.

 

[sparky]

All i know is we exist in a bubble economy ......feast/famine......my entire 40+ yrs of work history......and no i'm no economist.....but i get it......in fact most a few fries short of a happy meal get it.....

~S~

 

[miketx]

The states can fix the problem by recomputing the exorbitant pensions that many officials have. Pensions should be limited to a maximum of 80% or so of their base salary. Tax payers should not be liable for outrageous pensions. The courts need to rethink the "CA Rule", or let the states go bankrupt.

Liberals cannot fix anything, only make it worse.

 

[danielpalos]

The states can fix the problem by recomputing the exorbitant pensions that many officials have. Pensions should be limited to a maximum of 80% or so of their base salary. Tax payers should not be liable for outrageous pensions. The courts need to rethink the "CA Rule", or let the states go bankrupt.

we should be raising more tax revenue by raising the minimum wage.

 

[Toro]

California tax revenues are exceeding expectations and budgetary forecasts thus far for the fiscal year.

State Controller Betty T. Yee reported the state received $9.69 billion in revenue in November, exceeding projections in the 2018-19 fiscal year budget by 15.1 percent, or $1.27 billion.

Personal income tax (PIT), sales tax, and corporation tax –– the state’s “big three”revenue sources –– all were higher than expected in the enacted budget.

For the fiscal year, revenues of $44.97 billion are 5.4 percent ($2.29 billion) higher than projected in the budget enacted at the end of June. Total revenues for FY 2018 - 19 thus far are 9.8 percent ($4.02 billion) higher than through the same five months of FY 2017-18.​

https://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/12-18summary.pdf