How to reduce violent crime, if that is the actual goal, and it doesn't involve banning guns for normal people.

[Hollie]

I've gone into many posts about why those numbers are horseshit, but here's the short version.

Estimates range from 47,000 to Five million. That's already in the "I'm just making shit up because I can't quantify it" realm.

But, what we do know is that only 200 or so gun homicides a year are classified as "Self-Defense by Civilians". And that can be an abused wife shooting her abuser as much as a home invader getting shot.

So if you are to take the numbers at face value, out of 47,000 DGU's, only 200 end up in someone going home in a body bag. That means the other 46,800 times, the mere sight of a gun is enough to scare a desperate person away. It also means that 46,800 times, a gun fetishist finally gets to shoot him a bad guy and is able to restrain himself? Unlikely.

I see. The ''numbers ard horseshit''... because you say so.

That seems to define the bulk of your arguments. You have no verifiable facts because in the realm of the left, facts dong matter.

I know it's been explained to you many times, in excruciating detail, but a DGU that results in a wannabe criminal being deterred from harming an innocent person is a pretty good win for the DGU'er.

Your gun fetish has taken on the proportions of a psychosis.

 

[Hollie]

Since the country is well on its way back to the days of the wild west, I say we need to bring back public punishments to the courtyards.

Pretty melodramatic. Take away the gun crimes committed by gangs and the criminals who the left makes allowances for and the US is not a safe country.

 

[AyeCantSeeYou]

Pretty melodramatic. Take away the gun crimes committed by gangs and the criminals who the left makes allowances for and the US is not a safe country.

Those committing violent crimes know their chances of getting caught and doing hard time is a joke. They have nothing to fear. If people see that criminals are actually being punished for what they've done, some will stop and think before they go do something stupid "just because they can". The system worked before and the country didn't have near the amount of violent crimes being committed as we do today.

 

[leftwinger]

The US has Blacks. Browns & Mixed (out of contro)l committing violent Crimes way over their population representation. White junkies, anarchist and crazies too.

Other Civilized countries dont have open borders and ghetto Blacks with ten kids, 7 mothers (willing to go on the dole).

I used to care (prior to NOV2020) but now? Those in power don't care? Won't acknowledge actual facts (not the now hidden or sanitized BS). Why should we?

Stay home. Armed carry in case U need. Cross the street with that honest Black.

 

[JoeB131]

Wrong.....

Probably the best of a bad lot was the famous Arthur Kellermann study from 1993 in the New England Journal of Medicine. All the rest are even worse, but at least he controlled for a few possible confounding factors. But he withheld one crucial piece of information from his readers. He knew that virtually none of the people who had been murdered while having a gun in their home had actually been killed with the gun that belonged to someone in the home.

How did he know that? Frankly, given that half the murders are committed by people who know each other, that actually seems... pretty likely.

If anything, Kellerman was probably underestimating the numbers.

Actual scenario.....gang member, drunk and high gets annoyed with baby momma cause she tells him the rent is due...so he shoots her.......

Oh, so if they aren't white, that makes it okay.

 

[JoeB131]

Those committing violent crimes know their chances of getting caught and doing hard time is a joke. They have nothing to fear. If people see that criminals are actually being punished for what they've done, some will stop and think before they go do something stupid "just because they can". The system worked before and the country didn't have near the amount of violent crimes being committed as we do today.

We throw 2 million people in prison, and we are one of the last countries to still have capital punishment. Hardly a "joke" as you would have it.

 

[JoeB131]

I see. The ''numbers ard horseshit''... because you say so.

That seems to define the bulk of your arguments. You have no verifiable facts because in the realm of the left, facts dong matter.

Well, it would be nice if we HAD more real studies other than Lott and Kleck just making shit up.

But after Kellerman proved that a gun in the home is 43 times more likely to kill a household member than a bad guy, the National Rampage Association ran whining back to Congress and blocked all gun studies by the CDC.

 

[2aguy]

Well, it would be nice if we HAD more real studies other than Lott and Kleck just making shit up.

But after Kellerman proved that a gun in the home is 43 times more likely to kill a household member than a bad guy, the National Rampage Association ran whining back to Congress and blocked all gun studies by the CDC.

You have been shown that of the 3 Kellermann made shit up……..he was called out and actually changed his study ………

and you know that Congress didn’t ban gun research and you have been shown gun research after congress banned the CDC from using tax money to push gun control….

You are such a lying piece of trash.

 

[Hollie]

Well, it would be nice if we HAD more real studies other than Lott and Kleck just making shit up.

But after Kellerman proved that a gun in the home is 43 times more likely to kill a household member than a bad guy, the National Rampage Association ran whining back to Congress and blocked all gun studies by the CDC.

I think everyone has seen your endless copying and pasting of the flawed Kellerman report.

I would suggest not referencing the leftist controlled CDC (Center for Disinformation Communication) as a source for anything. Do a search for the numbers of times they have been nothing but a tool of lies and deceit for the leftists.

 

[Hollie]

We throw 2 million people in prison, and we are one of the last countries to still have capital punishment. Hardly a "joke" as you would have it.

Obviously, the left has decided that throwing people in prison for committing crimes is the wrong way to protect the greater society. So, they have decided that not imposing consequences for crines is the better solution.

Great plan.

Defund the police to make people safer, they said - yet data shows huge increases in crime already in 2022.

Aggravated assaults, larcenies, robberies, vehicle thefts, burglaries - early indicators suggest an increase in overall crime for the first half of 2022.

www.lawenforcementtoday.com

Defund the police to make people safer, they said: Data shows huge increases in crime in 2022.​

So.... say that leftist mantra with me.... wait for it.....

I Blame Trump

 

[2aguy]

Well, it would be nice if we HAD more real studies other than Lott and Kleck just making shit up.

But after Kellerman proved that a gun in the home is 43 times more likely to kill a household member than a bad guy, the National Rampage Association ran whining back to Congress and blocked all gun studies by the CDC.

''
This is kellerman...

In a 1986 NEJM paper, Kellermann and associates, for example, claimed their “scientific research” proved that defending oneself or one’s family with a firearm in the home is dangerous and counterproductive, claiming “a gun owner is 43 times more likely to kill a family member than an intruder.” This erroneous assertion is what Dr. Edgar Suter, chairman of Doctors for Integrity in Policy Research (DIPR), has accurately termed Kellermann’s “43 times fallacy” for gun ownership.7



In a critical and now classic review published in the March 1994 Journal of the Medical Association of Georgia (JMAG), Suter not only found evidence of “methodologic and conceptual errors,” such as prejudicially truncated data and non-sequitur logic, but also “overt mendacity,” including the listing of “the correct methodology which was described but never used by the authors.” Moreover, the gun-control researchers “deceptively understated” the protective benefits of guns. Suter wrote: “The true measure of the protective benefits of guns are the lives and medical costs saved, the injuries prevented, and the property protected—not the burglar or rapist body count. Since only 0.1 percent-0.2 percent of defensive uses of guns involve the death of the criminal, any study, such as this, that counts criminal deaths as the only measure of the protective benefits of guns will expectedly underestimate the benefits of firearms by a factor of 500 to 1,000.”8

Greater Risk to Victims?​

In 1993, in another peer-reviewed NEJM article (the research again heavily funded by the CDC), Kellermann attempted to show that guns in the home are a greater risk to the residents than to the assailants. Despite valid criticisms by reputable scholars of his previous works (including the 1986 study), Kellermann used the same flawed methodology and non-sequitur approach. He also used study populations with disproportionately high rates of serious psychosocial dysfunction from three selected counties known to be unrepresentative of the general U.S. population.

For example, 53 percent of the case subjects had a household member who had been arrested, 31 percent had a household history of illicit drug use, 32 percent had a household member hit or hurt in a family fight, and 17 percent had a family member hurt so seriously in a domestic altercation that prompt medical attention was required. Moreover, the case studies and control groups in this analysis had a high incidence of financial instability. In fact, gun ownership, the supposedly high-risk factor for homicide, was not one of the most strongly associated factors for being a murder victim. Drinking, illicit drugs, living alone, a history of family violence, and living in a rented home were all greater individual risk factors for being murdered than having a gun in the home. There is no basis for applying the conclusions to the general population.

Most important, Kellermann and his associates again failed to consider the protective benefits of firearms.

In this 1993 study, they arrived at the “2.7 times fallacy.” In other words, they downsized their fallacy and claimed a family member is 2.7 times more likely to kill another family member than an intruder. Yet, a fallacy is still a fallacy and, as such, it deserves no place in scientific investigations and peer-reviewed medical publications.

Although the 1993 NEJM study purported to show that the homicide victims were killed with a gun ordinarily kept in the home, the fact is, as Kates and associates showed, 71.1 percent of the victims were killed by assailants who didn’t live in the victims’ household using guns presumably not kept in that home.9

While Kellermann and associates began with 444 cases of homicides in the home, cases were dropped from the study for a variety of reasons, and in the end, only 316 matched pairs were used, representing only 71.2 percent of the original 444 homicide cases. This reduction increased tremendously the chance for sampling bias. Analysis of why 28.8 percent of the cases were dropped would have helped indicate if the study had been compromised by the existence of such biases, but Dr. Kellermann, in an unprecedented move, refused to release his data and make it available for other researchers to analyze.

These errors invalidated the findings of the 1993 Kellermann study, just as they tainted those of 1986. Nevertheless, the errors have crept into and now permeate the lay press, the electronic media, and particularly, the medical journals, where they remain uncorrected and are repeated time and again as gospel. The media and gun-control groups still cling to the “43 times fallacy” and repeatedly invoke the erroneous mantra that “a gun owner is 43 times more likely to kill a family member than an intruder.” And, because the publication of the data (and their purported conclusions) supposedly come from “reliable” sources and objective medical researchers, they are given a lot of weight and credibility by practicing physicians, social scientists (who should know better), social workers, law-enforcement officials, and particularly gun-banning politicians.


https://fee.org/articles/the-tainted-public-health-model-of-gun-control/

 

[JoeB131]

You have been shown that of the 3 Kellermann made shit up……..he was called out and actually changed his study ………

No, he really didn't. Clarification isn't retraction.

I would suggest not referencing the leftist controlled CDC (Center for Disinformation Communication) as a source for anything. Do a search for the numbers of times they have been nothing but a tool of lies and deceit for the leftists.

Actually, Kellerman was probably underestimating the problem. 60% of gun deaths are suicides. Half of gun homicides are domestic violence. So already, you have 80% of gun deaths being with guns that some "normal" gun owner bought for protection.

Obviously, the left has decided that throwing people in prison for committing crimes is the wrong way to protect the greater society. So, they have decided that not imposing consequences for crines is the better solution.

The prison-industrial complex is definitely counter-productive. Throwing people of color in prison and limiting their futures just creates more crime.

This is kellerman...

Clarification isn't retraction.

 

[Hollie]

No, he really didn't. Clarification isn't retraction.



Actually, Kellerman was probably underestimating the problem. 60% of gun deaths are suicides. Half of gun homicides are domestic violence. So already, you have 80% of gun deaths being with guns that some "normal" gun owner bought for protection.



The prison-industrial complex is definitely counter-productive. Throwing people of color in prison and limiting their futures just creates more crime.


Clarification isn't retraction.

Actually, there is no reason to believe that Kellerman underestimated anything.

You give special credence to your ''.... because I say so'', claims for no identifiable reason.

 

[JoeB131]

Actually, there is no reason to believe that Kellerman underestimated anything.

Except the numbers I just laid out for you that you clearly didn't understand.

Okay, make it simple for you.

200 justified homicides by civilians with guns according to the FBI.

Expanded Homicide

ucr.fbi.gov

And about half the homicides are done by people who are known to the victim.

Meanwhile, we have 19,500 gun homicides, and 24,000 gun suicides a year. Not to mention 486 accidents. Which means using the above table, all of the suicides and 41% of the homicides were with a gun in the home. So the ratio of guns in the home killing people is 32481 (7995 domestic homicides, and 24,000 suicides and 486 accidents) to 200 homicides. So that number actually comes out to a gun in the home being 162 times more likely to kill a household member or acquaintance than a bad guy.

Guns in the United States — Firearms, gun law and gun control

Gun law, gun control statistics, number of guns in United States, gun deaths, firearm facts and policy, armed violence, public health and development

www.gunpolicy.org

That assumes that of the 49% where relationships between killer and victim are unknown are truly by strangers, which is unlikely.

 

[2aguy]

No, he really didn't. Clarification isn't retraction.



Actually, Kellerman was probably underestimating the problem. 60% of gun deaths are suicides. Half of gun homicides are domestic violence. So already, you have 80% of gun deaths being with guns that some "normal" gun owner bought for protection.



The prison-industrial complex is definitely counter-productive. Throwing people of color in prison and limiting their futures just creates more crime.


Clarification isn't retraction.

Completely redoing your study isnt a retraction it is showing you did crap work....and as my link pointed out, he still got it wrong

 

[2aguy]

Except the numbers I just laid out for you that you clearly didn't understand.

Okay, make it simple for you.

200 justified homicides by civilians with guns according to the FBI.

Expanded Homicide

ucr.fbi.gov

And about half the homicides are done by people who are known to the victim.

Meanwhile, we have 19,500 gun homicides, and 24,000 gun suicides a year. Not to mention 486 accidents. Which means using the above table, all of the suicides and 41% of the homicides were with a gun in the home. So the ratio of guns in the home killing people is 32481 (7995 domestic homicides, and 24,000 suicides and 486 accidents) to 200 homicides. So that number actually comes out to a gun in the home being 162 times more likely to kill a household member or acquaintance than a bad guy.

Guns in the United States — Firearms, gun law and gun control

Gun law, gun control statistics, number of guns in United States, gun deaths, firearm facts and policy, armed violence, public health and development

www.gunpolicy.org

That assumes that of the 49% where relationships between killer and victim are unknown are truly by strangers, which is unlikely.

The reason we had 19,000 last year over the average of 10,000 is the democrat party going intro hyper drive in attacking local poloce and releasing the most dangerous criminals over and over again.

The democrat party is driving the gun murder rate....and you dont care

 

[JoeB131]

Completely redoing your study isnt a retraction it is showing you did crap work....and as my link pointed out, he still got it wrong

Except he didn't. He repeated his study in other cities and got the exact same results.

The reason we had 19,000 last year over the average of 10,000 is the democrat party going intro hyper drive in attacking local poloce and releasing the most dangerous criminals over and over again.

Nope. We actually don't have numbers for last year yet.

2020 it went up because we locked millions of people up in their houses with relatives they already could barely stand being in the same room with after flooding the country with 50 million more guns.

That's why it went up.

 

[Hollie]

Except the numbers I just laid out for you that you clearly didn't understand.

Okay, make it simple for you.

200 justified homicides by civilians with guns according to the FBI.

Expanded Homicide

ucr.fbi.gov

And about half the homicides are done by people who are known to the victim.

Meanwhile, we have 19,500 gun homicides, and 24,000 gun suicides a year. Not to mention 486 accidents. Which means using the above table, all of the suicides and 41% of the homicides were with a gun in the home. So the ratio of guns in the home killing people is 32481 (7995 domestic homicides, and 24,000 suicides and 486 accidents) to 200 homicides. So that number actually comes out to a gun in the home being 162 times more likely to kill a household member or acquaintance than a bad guy.

Guns in the United States — Firearms, gun law and gun control

Gun law, gun control statistics, number of guns in United States, gun deaths, firearm facts and policy, armed violence, public health and development

www.gunpolicy.org

That assumes that of the 49% where relationships between killer and victim are unknown are truly by strangers, which is unlikely.

Well, yeah. Gang shootings and criminal activity accounts for a lot of the gun crimes. Oh, well. Criminals gonna be criminals.

At least if you're gonna be a criminal, live in a place with a leftist criminal justice controlled system.

Almost 12,000 cases dismissed due to failures of St. Louis circuit attorney among new allegations from Missouri attorney general

Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey filed a 121-page amended petition to remove St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner from office.

www.ksdk.com

I'll also note that the leftist addled FBI has something of a leftist ideological problem.

New FBI national crime data released with glaring holes in major cities — including NYC

Experts say the data, released as part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report on Wednesday, has some glaring holes due to an “overwhelming” lack of participation by police.

www.google.com

I note however, you might want to check the leftist addled CDC for data.

Gun Control Groups Got CDC To Scrub ‘Good Guys With Guns’ Study, Emails Show | The Daily Wire

www.dailywire.com

Oops.

 

[JoeB131]

Well, yeah. Gang shootings and criminal activity accounts for a lot of the gun crimes. Oh, well. Criminals gonna be criminals.

Actually, it really doesn't.

MYTH: Gangs are responsible for most U.S. homicides - GVPedia

FACT: A 2020 study by the CDC found that 9.7% of homicides in 2017 were gang-related.

www.gvpedia.org

Contrary to Lott’s repeated claim that the U.S. has a relatively high homicide rate because of “drug gangs,” most gun homicides are not related to gang activity. According to the National Gang Center, the government agency responsible for cataloging gang violence, there was an average of fewer than 2,000 gang homicides annually from 2007 to 2012. During roughly the same time period (2007 to 2011), the Federal Bureau of Investigation estimated an average of more than 15,500 homicides annually across the United States, indicating that gang-related homicides were approximately 13% total homicides annually. The Bureau of Justice Statistics finds the number of gang-related homicides to be even lower. In 2008, the government agency identified 960 homicides, accounting for 6% of all homicides that year.

According to the Federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP), there was a 3% increase in the number of gangs between 2010 and 2011, but gang-related homicides decreased 8% during the same period. If gang violence was truly driving the homicide rate, gang membership and gun homicide rates would move in the same direction.

A December 2020 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report of 34 states, four California counties, and Washington, D.C., found that gang-related attacks were responsible for 11.4% of male homicides and 3.6% of female homicides in 2017, for 9.7% of overall homicides. The previous year, 7.4% of all homicides were gang-related.

A 2012 CDC study examining five cities with the largest gang problems found a total of 856 gang homicides compared to 2,077 non-gang homicides from 2003–2008. Even when examining cities with the largest gang problems, gang homicides only accounted for 29% of homicides. Contrary to Lott’s claim that the illegal drug trade is fueling US gun violence, the study also says “the proportion of gang homicides resulting from drug trade/use or with other crimes in progress was consistently low in the five cities, ranging from zero to 25 percent.”

 

[2aguy]

Except he didn't. He repeated his study in other cities and got the exact same results.



Nope. We actually don't have numbers for last year yet.

2020 it went up because we locked millions of people up in their houses with relatives they already could barely stand being in the same room with after flooding the country with 50 million more guns.

That's why it went up.

Thats a lie...you clod.