How long can Iran’s war-devastated economy defy the Hormuz blockade?

[Doc7505]

How long can Iran’s war-devastated economy defy the Hormuz blockade?​

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2640654/middle-east

21 Apr 2026 ~~ By Jonathan Gornall & Tarek Ali Ahmad

• Blockade of Hormuz threatens to choke Iran’s trade lifelines and push a fragile economy toward collapse
• Mounting losses, inflation and internal divisions raise doubts over Tehran’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict

LONDON: Even before the outbreak of the latest war, Iran was in deep economic trouble.
In the immediate aftermath of the 12-Day War in June and July last year, during which the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, an analysis by independent nonprofit Iran Focus laid bare the reality of what it called “the crippled economy of Iran.”
Over recent years, it reported, Iran’s economy has faced a series of “complex crises, any one of which could destabilize an entire economic system.
“From energy imbalances and international sanctions to unstable domestic policies and stagflation, all these challenges have severely disrupted (Iran’s) supply chain, production, and foreign trade.”
The knock-on effects have been considerable. Shortages of gas and electricity, for example, have impacted energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals.
Even before the 2025 war, the economy had been dealt a series of blows by the years-long international sanctions regime.
~Snip~
Under the current regime, Iran Focus concluded: “Iran’s economy is trapped in a vortex of domestic and international crises. Energy imbalances, sanctions, unstable policies, and stagflation have paralyzed supply chains and trade.
“The decline in exports, reduced competitiveness, and trade deficits are clear signs of a bleak future, unless the regime is replaced with a government that serves the people’s interests.”
The latest outbreak of war, which began on Feb. 28 when the US and Israel mounted fresh strikes on Iran, has made matters far worse.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 percent of the world’s energy passes, hoping to leverage the resulting global economic pain to force a halt to US-Israeli attacks.
After ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed, President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade vessels entering or leaving the strait, saying the move was meant to force Tehran to reopen the waterway.
~Snip~
Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per day, the nation’s tanks would fill in just 13 days.
Once storage tanks fill up, Iran would have no choice but to stop pumping oil from some of its older fields. That might sound temporary, but it can cause lasting damage underground. When production stops, water that naturally sits below the oil can push upward into the well — a problem known as “water coning.”
Once this happens, the oil becomes much harder, sometimes impossible, to extract because it gets trapped in the tiny pores of the rock. The result is not just a short-term disruption but a permanent loss of output. In Iran’s case, this could wipe out as much as 500,000 barrels per day of future production capacity — equivalent to roughly $15 billion in lost revenue each year that cannot be recovered.
~Snip~
“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” Maleki said.
Sensing Iran will be unable to hold up for long, influential Iranians are calling for compromise.
Continuing to fight the US and Israel “might be psychologically satisfying,” former Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote in Foreign Affairs on April 3, “but it will lead only to the further destruction of civilian lives and infrastructure,” including “vital pharmaceutical, energy, and industrial sites.”
To prevent further degeneration, Zarif argued it was time for Tehran to “offer to place limits on its nuclear program and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to all sanctions.”
Internal divisions are also surfacing. Reports emerged in February of fractures within the country’s parliament over the withering economy. One member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly reportedly raised concerns that foreign currency revenue was remaining in the hands of “a few hundred major exporters.”


Commentary:
This is an excellent analytical report on the impact of Trump's Iranian blockade.
It from Arab News, a Saudi Arabia newspaper. It appears to be factually based without the obvious bias typical of U.S. mainstream media sources.
At this point the IRGC would rather see the total destruction of Iran than capitulate to the U.S. and Trump.
It appears that no matter the destruction to the Iran and its economy, the IRGC will not relent.
It will not bother them if there’s a total and irreversible collapse of the economy and the civil order. Their objective is to survive at all costs, just like Hamas.
That’s why it's necessary to kill all of them.
Meanwhile, Democrat resistance and fearmongering to anything Trump does to end this war continues

 

[Mac1958]

Iran's nutcase theocratic regime finds itself in as lucky a postion as they could have hoped for.

They control their country militarily and can let many Iranian citizens suffer if this drags on.

But even better, if the Hormuz situation drags on and the world economy goes into the toilet, it's entirely possible that much of the world will blame America and its unwell idiot President for starting this. We have already insulted, threatened, mocked, trolled and punished our former friends as it is.

These Iranian psychos are probably thanking their lucky stars.

 

[luiza]

At this point the IRGC would rather see the total destruction of Iran than capitulate to the U.S. and Trump.
It appears that no matter the destruction to the Iran and its economy, the IRGC will not relent.
It will not bother them if there’s a total and irreversible collapse of the economy and the civil order. Their objective is to survive at all costs, just like Hamas.
That’s why it's necessary to kill all of them.

That's what Israel and the US have paid them to do .
Over decades ,

You are not fighting the Mullahs .

You are watching Deep State theatre where all of the top people from every party are all " Jolly Good Friends".

At minimum they want a new Financial System -- non Debt based and ridding the US of its unpayable debts .

But first we need some fighting and a good delay before matters are agreeably sorted .
Of course millions will die but that's a small price to pay for targeted planet Sheeple Control .

Keep tagging the real IRGC top boys -- let us know later what beach and on what islands they keep their private yachts etc etc

 

[Invisibleflash]

How long can Iran’s war-devastated economy defy the Hormuz blockade?​

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2640654/middle-east

21 Apr 2026 ~~ By Jonathan Gornall & Tarek Ali Ahmad

• Blockade of Hormuz threatens to choke Iran’s trade lifelines and push a fragile economy toward collapse
• Mounting losses, inflation and internal divisions raise doubts over Tehran’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict

LONDON: Even before the outbreak of the latest war, Iran was in deep economic trouble.
In the immediate aftermath of the 12-Day War in June and July last year, during which the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, an analysis by independent nonprofit Iran Focus laid bare the reality of what it called “the crippled economy of Iran.”
Over recent years, it reported, Iran’s economy has faced a series of “complex crises, any one of which could destabilize an entire economic system.
“From energy imbalances and international sanctions to unstable domestic policies and stagflation, all these challenges have severely disrupted (Iran’s) supply chain, production, and foreign trade.”
The knock-on effects have been considerable. Shortages of gas and electricity, for example, have impacted energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals.
Even before the 2025 war, the economy had been dealt a series of blows by the years-long international sanctions regime.
~Snip~
Under the current regime, Iran Focus concluded: “Iran’s economy is trapped in a vortex of domestic and international crises. Energy imbalances, sanctions, unstable policies, and stagflation have paralyzed supply chains and trade.
“The decline in exports, reduced competitiveness, and trade deficits are clear signs of a bleak future, unless the regime is replaced with a government that serves the people’s interests.”
The latest outbreak of war, which began on Feb. 28 when the US and Israel mounted fresh strikes on Iran, has made matters far worse.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 percent of the world’s energy passes, hoping to leverage the resulting global economic pain to force a halt to US-Israeli attacks.
After ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed, President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade vessels entering or leaving the strait, saying the move was meant to force Tehran to reopen the waterway.
~Snip~
Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per day, the nation’s tanks would fill in just 13 days.
Once storage tanks fill up, Iran would have no choice but to stop pumping oil from some of its older fields. That might sound temporary, but it can cause lasting damage underground. When production stops, water that naturally sits below the oil can push upward into the well — a problem known as “water coning.”
Once this happens, the oil becomes much harder, sometimes impossible, to extract because it gets trapped in the tiny pores of the rock. The result is not just a short-term disruption but a permanent loss of output. In Iran’s case, this could wipe out as much as 500,000 barrels per day of future production capacity — equivalent to roughly $15 billion in lost revenue each year that cannot be recovered.
~Snip~
“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” Maleki said.
Sensing Iran will be unable to hold up for long, influential Iranians are calling for compromise.
Continuing to fight the US and Israel “might be psychologically satisfying,” former Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote in Foreign Affairs on April 3, “but it will lead only to the further destruction of civilian lives and infrastructure,” including “vital pharmaceutical, energy, and industrial sites.”
To prevent further degeneration, Zarif argued it was time for Tehran to “offer to place limits on its nuclear program and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to all sanctions.”
Internal divisions are also surfacing. Reports emerged in February of fractures within the country’s parliament over the withering economy. One member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly reportedly raised concerns that foreign currency revenue was remaining in the hands of “a few hundred major exporters.”


Commentary:
This is an excellent analytical report on the impact of Trump's Iranian blockade.
It from Arab News, a Saudi Arabia newspaper. It appears to be factually based without the obvious bias typical of U.S. mainstream media sources.
At this point the IRGC would rather see the total destruction of Iran than capitulate to the U.S. and Trump.
It appears that no matter the destruction to the Iran and its economy, the IRGC will not relent.
It will not bother them if there’s a total and irreversible collapse of the economy and the civil order. Their objective is to survive at all costs, just like Hamas.
That’s why it's necessary to kill all of them.
Meanwhile, Democrat resistance and fearmongering to anything Trump does to end this war continues

If Iran surrenders, it is done for. Jewmerica wants the Gaza plan for Iran. They will fight to the death for they know surrender is death as well.

I'd tell you to relax and keep guzzling down that MAGAjuice, bub. Maybe that will calm you down from encouraging worldwide genocide.

 

[Mac-7]

If Iran surrenders, it is done for. Jewmerica wants the Gaza plan for Iran. They will fight to the death for they know surrender is death as well.

I'd tell you to relax and keep guzzling down that MAGAjuice, bub. Maybe that will calm you down from encouraging worldwide genocide.


View attachment 1247498

Libs are sick puppies with a pornographic mind

 

[Darkwind]

Libs are sick puppies with a pornographic mind

They're also not big on reality.

 

[Mac-7]

They're also not big on reality.

For libs sucking dick often is reality

 

[BackAgain]

How long can Iran’s war-devastated economy defy the Hormuz blockade?​

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2640654/middle-east

21 Apr 2026 ~~ By Jonathan Gornall & Tarek Ali Ahmad

• Blockade of Hormuz threatens to choke Iran’s trade lifelines and push a fragile economy toward collapse
• Mounting losses, inflation and internal divisions raise doubts over Tehran’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict

LONDON: Even before the outbreak of the latest war, Iran was in deep economic trouble.
In the immediate aftermath of the 12-Day War in June and July last year, during which the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, an analysis by independent nonprofit Iran Focus laid bare the reality of what it called “the crippled economy of Iran.”
Over recent years, it reported, Iran’s economy has faced a series of “complex crises, any one of which could destabilize an entire economic system.
“From energy imbalances and international sanctions to unstable domestic policies and stagflation, all these challenges have severely disrupted (Iran’s) supply chain, production, and foreign trade.”
The knock-on effects have been considerable. Shortages of gas and electricity, for example, have impacted energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals.
Even before the 2025 war, the economy had been dealt a series of blows by the years-long international sanctions regime.
~Snip~
Under the current regime, Iran Focus concluded: “Iran’s economy is trapped in a vortex of domestic and international crises. Energy imbalances, sanctions, unstable policies, and stagflation have paralyzed supply chains and trade.
“The decline in exports, reduced competitiveness, and trade deficits are clear signs of a bleak future, unless the regime is replaced with a government that serves the people’s interests.”
The latest outbreak of war, which began on Feb. 28 when the US and Israel mounted fresh strikes on Iran, has made matters far worse.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 percent of the world’s energy passes, hoping to leverage the resulting global economic pain to force a halt to US-Israeli attacks.
After ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed, President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade vessels entering or leaving the strait, saying the move was meant to force Tehran to reopen the waterway.
~Snip~
Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per day, the nation’s tanks would fill in just 13 days.
Once storage tanks fill up, Iran would have no choice but to stop pumping oil from some of its older fields. That might sound temporary, but it can cause lasting damage underground. When production stops, water that naturally sits below the oil can push upward into the well — a problem known as “water coning.”
Once this happens, the oil becomes much harder, sometimes impossible, to extract because it gets trapped in the tiny pores of the rock. The result is not just a short-term disruption but a permanent loss of output. In Iran’s case, this could wipe out as much as 500,000 barrels per day of future production capacity — equivalent to roughly $15 billion in lost revenue each year that cannot be recovered.
~Snip~
“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” Maleki said.
Sensing Iran will be unable to hold up for long, influential Iranians are calling for compromise.
Continuing to fight the US and Israel “might be psychologically satisfying,” former Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote in Foreign Affairs on April 3, “but it will lead only to the further destruction of civilian lives and infrastructure,” including “vital pharmaceutical, energy, and industrial sites.”
To prevent further degeneration, Zarif argued it was time for Tehran to “offer to place limits on its nuclear program and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to all sanctions.”
Internal divisions are also surfacing. Reports emerged in February of fractures within the country’s parliament over the withering economy. One member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly reportedly raised concerns that foreign currency revenue was remaining in the hands of “a few hundred major exporters.”


Commentary:
This is an excellent analytical report on the impact of Trump's Iranian blockade.
It from Arab News, a Saudi Arabia newspaper. It appears to be factually based without the obvious bias typical of U.S. mainstream media sources.
At this point the IRGC would rather see the total destruction of Iran than capitulate to the U.S. and Trump.
It appears that no matter the destruction to the Iran and its economy, the IRGC will not relent.
It will not bother them if there’s a total and irreversible collapse of the economy and the civil order. Their objective is to survive at all costs, just like Hamas.
That’s why it's necessary to kill all of them.
Meanwhile, Democrat resistance and fearmongering to anything Trump does to end this war continues

Or. Has a naval “fleet” of fast boats.

Soon, and ironically, they wouldn’t be able to afford their own gas to fill up those craft.

 

[Zavulon]

Economically, Iran can stand as long as Russia and China support it. And given that both Russia and China are quite determined to keep Iran independent and out of US-control - it can be quite long.

 

[kyzr]

Iran's nutcase theocratic regime finds itself in as lucky a position as they could have hoped for.
They control their country militarily and can let many Iranian citizens suffer if this drags on.

true

But even better, if the Hormuz situation drags on and the world economy goes into the toilet, it's entirely possible that much of the world will blame America and its unwell idiot President for starting this. We have already insulted, threatened, mocked, trolled and punished our former friends as it is. These Iranian psychos are probably thanking their lucky stars.

You can't ignore that Trump is fixing what the JCPOA did not, that is stopping Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The world's economy looks to be just fine. It would have been better if "the world" would help end Iran's illegal blockade of Hormuz.

 

[kyzr]

Economically, Iran can stand as long as Russia and China support it. And given that both Russia and China are quite determined to keep Iran independent and out of US-control - it can be quite long.

China doesn't want more tariffs, its economy is slowing.
Russia has no money to spare.

 

[Zavulon]

China doesn't want more tariffs, its economy is slowing.

Tariffs is the weapon that hits both sides. And even less they want losing Iran's cheap oil and their Belt and Way initiative.

Russia has no money to spare.

He-he. Thanks to the blockade Russia got a lot of unexpected incomes. And, with this blockade Iran has to develop Caspian-Volga-Baltic way. Which also means additional benefits for Russia.

 

[kyzr]

Tariffs is the weapon that hits both sides. And even less they want losing Iran's cheap oil and their Belt and Way initiative.

True. China really likes Iran's cheap sanctioned oil.
Whatever happened to those pipelines between Russia and China? Are they built?

He-he. Thanks to the blockade Russia got a lot of unexpected income. And, with this blockade Iran has to develop Caspian-Volga-Baltic way. Which also means additional benefits for Russia.

Russia's sanctions are back on, so it was a temporary benefit not a new revenue stream.
Iran has no money to develop anything due to the blockade.

 

[shockedcanadian]

Tariffs is the weapon that hits both sides. And even less they want losing Iran's cheap oil and their Belt and Way initiative.


He-he. Thanks to the blockade Russia got a lot of unexpected incomes. And, with this blockade Iran has to develop Caspian-Volga-Baltic way. Which also means additional benefits for Russia.

Do you mean "Belt and Road"?

Russia only benefited short term with higher oil prices and supply issues. Its influence dissipate greatly if Iran became a democracy.

 

[Chuz Life]

When Iran runs out of storage for the crude and oil wells have to shut down, they might realize how fucked they really are.

 

[luiza]

Further humiliation for Trumpfy Wumpfy

Iran downs KC-135 Squadron and
Trumpfy Wumpfy cancels Project Freedom



Sad Trumpfy Wumfy
Down on his fat Bumfy

An extra Allahu Akbar , Cheeky Boys

 

[Zavulon]

True. China really likes Iran's cheap sanctioned oil.
Whatever happened to those pipelines between Russia and China? Are they built?

Are you banned in Google. Yes, they are already built.

Russia's sanctions are back on, so it was a temporary benefit not a new revenue stream.
Iran has no money to develop anything due to the blockade.

They have a lot of goods to sell. Iranian land is rich and Iranians are smart and crafty guys. Today just mentioned a lot of Iranian watermelons in our grocery store. Say nothing about Iranian oil and other commodities that Russia can buy, transport and resell. Good luck to blockade Caspian-Volga trade lanes. Or Chinese "One belt" initiative.

 

[Man With A Plan]

Further humiliation for Trumpfy Wumpfy

Iran downs KC-135 Squadron and
Trumpfy Wumpfy cancels Project Freedom



Sad Trumpfy Wumfy
Down on his fat Bumfy

An extra Allahu Akbar , Cheeky Boys

You actually believe that, Luiza? Are you really that clueless?

 

[Man With A Plan]

Further humiliation for Trumpfy Wumpfy

Iran downs KC-135 Squadron and
Trumpfy Wumpfy cancels Project Freedom



Sad Trumpfy Wumfy
Down on his fat Bumfy

An extra Allahu Akbar , Cheeky Boys

Let me explain something to you...
Iran's response has always been to drag out every conflict for as long as they can. They don't win wars. They never have won a single one! Their go to has always been holding the world hostage by controlling the Hormuz Straights. They shut it down and that backs off the rest of the world. Iran simply out waits them!
They can't do that in this conflict. Trump has flipped the script on them. HE controls the seas around Iran and HE is now holding Iran hostage because they have no way to sell their oil. They can't wait him out because they have a limited amount of storage space for their oil and once that's full they'll have no choice but to shut down oil production! When that happens those oil fields are going to never be the same again. Shutting them down is going to lose an estimated 50% of their production in the future and cost BILLIONS of dollars to restart again...money they do not have! Trump knows that. He knows they can't wait him out.

 

[luiza]

You actually believe that, Luiza? Are you really that clueless?

I do not believe it , I know it as a hard fact .

You are being lied to all the time and so far it is nearly 70 days in my favour and none in yours .

But Munchers areMunchers mainly because they are Gullible and unwittingly rely on Fake News sources .

Remember , nearly 70 versus Zero