Doc7505
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- Feb 16, 2016
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How long can Iran’s war-devastated economy defy the Hormuz blockade?
21 Apr 2026 ~~ By Jonathan Gornall & Tarek Ali Ahmad- Blockade of Hormuz threatens to choke Iran’s trade lifelines and push a fragile economy toward collapse
- Mounting losses, inflation and internal divisions raise doubts over Tehran’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict
In the immediate aftermath of the 12-Day War in June and July last year, during which the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, an analysis by independent nonprofit Iran Focus laid bare the reality of what it called “the crippled economy of Iran.”
Over recent years, it reported, Iran’s economy has faced a series of “complex crises, any one of which could destabilize an entire economic system.
“From energy imbalances and international sanctions to unstable domestic policies and stagflation, all these challenges have severely disrupted (Iran’s) supply chain, production, and foreign trade.”
The knock-on effects have been considerable. Shortages of gas and electricity, for example, have impacted energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals.
Even before the 2025 war, the economy had been dealt a series of blows by the years-long international sanctions regime.
~Snip~
Under the current regime, Iran Focus concluded: “Iran’s economy is trapped in a vortex of domestic and international crises. Energy imbalances, sanctions, unstable policies, and stagflation have paralyzed supply chains and trade.
“The decline in exports, reduced competitiveness, and trade deficits are clear signs of a bleak future, unless the regime is replaced with a government that serves the people’s interests.”
The latest outbreak of war, which began on Feb. 28 when the US and Israel mounted fresh strikes on Iran, has made matters far worse.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 percent of the world’s energy passes, hoping to leverage the resulting global economic pain to force a halt to US-Israeli attacks.
After ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed, President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade vessels entering or leaving the strait, saying the move was meant to force Tehran to reopen the waterway.
~Snip~
Beyond immediate revenue loss, the blockade creates a catastrophic “storage clock” for Iran’s energy infrastructure. With only about 20 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity and a surplus production of 1.5 million barrels per day, the nation’s tanks would fill in just 13 days.
Once storage tanks fill up, Iran would have no choice but to stop pumping oil from some of its older fields. That might sound temporary, but it can cause lasting damage underground. When production stops, water that naturally sits below the oil can push upward into the well — a problem known as “water coning.”
Once this happens, the oil becomes much harder, sometimes impossible, to extract because it gets trapped in the tiny pores of the rock. The result is not just a short-term disruption but a permanent loss of output. In Iran’s case, this could wipe out as much as 500,000 barrels per day of future production capacity — equivalent to roughly $15 billion in lost revenue each year that cannot be recovered.
~Snip~
“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” Maleki said.
Sensing Iran will be unable to hold up for long, influential Iranians are calling for compromise.
Continuing to fight the US and Israel “might be psychologically satisfying,” former Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote in Foreign Affairs on April 3, “but it will lead only to the further destruction of civilian lives and infrastructure,” including “vital pharmaceutical, energy, and industrial sites.”
To prevent further degeneration, Zarif argued it was time for Tehran to “offer to place limits on its nuclear program and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to all sanctions.”
Internal divisions are also surfacing. Reports emerged in February of fractures within the country’s parliament over the withering economy. One member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly reportedly raised concerns that foreign currency revenue was remaining in the hands of “a few hundred major exporters.”
Commentary:
This is an excellent analytical report on the impact of Trump's Iranian blockade.
It from Arab News, a Saudi Arabia newspaper. It appears to be factually based without the obvious bias typical of U.S. mainstream media sources.
At this point the IRGC would rather see the total destruction of Iran than capitulate to the U.S. and Trump.
It appears that no matter the destruction to the Iran and its economy, the IRGC will not relent.
It will not bother them if there’s a total and irreversible collapse of the economy and the civil order. Their objective is to survive at all costs, just like Hamas.
That’s why it's necessary to kill all of them.
Meanwhile, Democrat resistance and fearmongering to anything Trump does to end this war continues
